Cincinnati Reds Minor League Game Review – 8/20/17 Doug Gray August 21, 2017 47 Comments If you aren’t signed up to support the site through Patreon yet, you can do that today and start getting emails each morning with notes and updates from each game (and other perks). Louisville won 13-6. Box Score Darnell Sweeney went 1-4 with a walk, run and an RBI. Alex Blandino went 1-3 with a home run (11), 2 walks, 2 RBI and 3 runs. Brandon Dixon went 4-5 with a double, 3 home runs (15) and 7 RBI. Adam Brett Walker went 1-4 with a walk and 2 runs. Scott Van Slyke went 2-5 with a double, run and an RBI. Tyler Goeddel went 2-3 with 2 walks, a steal, a run and an RBI. Evan Mitchell allowed a run in 3.0 innings with a strikeout. Pensacola lost 3-2. Box Score Blake Trahan went 1-3 with a walk. Gabriel Guerrero went 1-4 with a double and a run. Josh Van Meter went 2-4 with a double. Jonathan Reynoso went 0-1 with 2 walks and a run. Jose Lopez allowed 2 runs in 6.0 innings with 5 strikeouts. Tanner Rainey threw 2.0 shutout innings with 2 walks and 2 strikeouts. Daytona lost 4-2. Box Score Alfredo Rodriguez went 1-4 with an RBI. Shane Mardirosian went 1-4 with a run. Luis Gonzalez went 1-4 with a double. Chris Okey went 0-2 with 2 walks and a run. Jonathon Crawford allowed 2 runs in 4.0 innings with 5 walks and 2 strikeouts. Jake Paulson threw 2.0 shutout innings with a strikeout. Dayton won 8-3. Box Score Randy Ventura went 3-4 with a walk, 3 runs and an RBI. Jose Siri went 1-3 with a home run (20), 2 walks, a steal (40) and 2 runs scored. Bruce Yari went 2-4 with a double and 3 RBI. Carlos Rivero went 1-4 with 2 runs and an RBI. Wennington Romero allowed 3 runs in 6.0 innings with 9 strikeouts. Carlos Machorro threw 3.0 shutout innings with 4 strikeouts. Billings lost 6-4. Box Score Stuart Fairchild went 1-3 with a walk and a run. Mark Kolozsvary went 1-4 with a run. Hendrik Clementina went 2-4 with a double and 2 RBI. JD Salmon-Williams went 2-4 with a solo home run (1), a steal and 2 runs. Zac Correll allowed a run in 2.1 innings with 2 walks and 3 strikeouts. Cory Thompson threw 2.0 hitless innings with a walk and 3 strikeouts. Connor Ryan threw a perfect inning with a strikeout. AZL Reds won 8-2. Box Score Cash Case went 2-3 with 2 walks, 2 runs and an RBI. Reshard Munroe went 2-5 witha d ouble, 2 runs and an RBI. Justin Bellinger went 1-4 with a walk and 2 RBI. Jonathan Willems went 2-5 with a run and an RBI. Alejandro Paulino went 2-4 with a steal, double, run and an RBI. Nate Scantlin went 2-4 with a run and an RBI. Jacob Heatherly allowed a run in 6.0 innings with a walk and a strikeout. Edward Escoboza threw 2.0 shutout innings with 2 walks and 5 strikeouts. 8/21 Game Preview Team 1st half 2nd half Time (EST) Probable Box Score Listen Live Watch Live Louisville 50-76 N/A 7:05pm Mahle Here Here Here Pensacola 40-30 26-29 7:35pm McGuire Here Here Here Daytona 33-32 14-42 OFF OFF Here Here N/A Dayton 41-29 19-37 7:00pm Moss Here Here Here Billings 18-19 8-10 9:05pm Sceroler Here Here N/A AZL Reds 18-27 N/A OFF OFF Here N/A N/A Top 25 Prospects Daily Rundown Rank Player Level Performance 1 Nick Senzel AA 0-1, K. Pinch hitter. 2 Luis Castillo MLB 4.0IP, 4H, 2ER, 2BB, 8K. 3 Hunter Greene BIL DNP 4 Sal Romano MLB DNP 5 Jesse Winker MLB DNP 6 Vladimir Gutierrez A+ DNP 7 Tyler Mahle AAA DNP 8 Taylor Trammell A 0-4, 2K. 9 Tyler Stephenson DL DNP 10 Tony Santillan A DNP 11 Shed Long AA/DL DNP 12 Jeter Downs BIL DNP 13 Stuart Fairchild BIL 1-3, BB, run. 14 Jose Siri A 1-3, 2BB, HR, steal, 2 runs, K. 15 Aristides Aquino AA 0-1. Left game early. 16 Jose Garcia DSL DNP 17 T.J. Friedl A+/DL DNP 18 Gavin LaValley AA 0-3, RBI. 19 Jimmy Herget AAA DNP 20 Zack Weiss AA 0.2IP, 2H, 1ER, 1BB, 0K. 21 Ariel Hernandez AAA DNP 22 Jackson Stephens AAA DNP 23 Phillip Ervin MLB 1-1, RBI. Pinch hitter. 24 Alfredo Rodriguez A+ 1-4, RBI, K. 25 Alex Blandino AAA 1-3, 2BB, HR, 3 runs, K. 47 Responses Simon Cowell August 21, 2017 Blandino or Dixon? Who gets to the show first and which one can manage to stay there? Bill August 21, 2017 Blandino … better OPS (.848 to .768 in 2017 and maintains a similar margin for entire minor league career), better defense and capable of filling in at SS if necessary. Tampa Red August 21, 2017 Probably Blandino, he’s a more polished hitter. But Dixon’s value as a utility guy, in my opinion, is sorely underrated and I appreciate Doug pointing some things out. I’ve been on the Dixon bandwagon for a while. I like his defensive versatility, he can run the bases a little and he’s got some thump in his bat. After years of watching the Tyler Holt’s and Janish’s of the system fill the bench role, I’d love to see Dixon get his shot for a season and then let’s evaluate. Wes August 21, 2017 When does Greene pitch? Doug Gray August 21, 2017 Next Monday. Wes August 21, 2017 Schebler- want to try to make this point one more time- The reds are in a rebuild that’s taking much longer than the fan base and organization hoped for. And although the hitting has been good- reds should be looking to get a little better still through player development and replacing guys like cozart and potentially scherber. Because when you are finishing near the bottom of league every year you have too. So when you have a guy in your line up it’s either to develop him long term or show case to trade him. I can agree that scherber has 30 homer/70 RBI potential but he has no chance to get anywhere close to 70 RBI this season and next season he’ll start at age 27. And have 3 years of MLB playing time under him- so potential is deminishing and results are what matters. And his results aren’t very impressive. The only thing he has going for him is his ability to hit solo homers at a good rate. He is last out of 9 players in several categories like batting average and RBI that aren’t the result of his own homer runs. He has 23 RBI on the season that where not of a result of him hitting a homer. That’s behind Barnhart peraza and even Billy. From a prospect comparison he’s a 26th rounder out of community college vs Ervin and winker both being draft in the first round. From a trade perspective there’s nothing there. There’s not 1 team linked to him. So if you play him everyday in hopes to improve his trade value and get it- the return is still going to be less than winkers current value. As a fan you have to be able to separate how you view one of your guys vs how the rest of the league sees him and the rest of league sees him, fair or not, as an almost 27 yr old power outfielder who struggles hitting and those guys grow on trees in MLB. Guys like Chris Carter actually hit 40 homers vs potential and he gets a 1 year deal. Happens every year where 3-4 of those guys who put up monster seasons yet still have little actual value. So let the first round talent guys play. If winker and Ervin aren’t long term answer then we still need a right fielder but we won’t know til get several hundred at bats too. Repeating a level is not a good thing for a prospect and winker has little to prove in AAA. He needs to be on big league roster playing everyday. It’s been a slow rebuild. Leaving schebler in there only slows it down more. It’s time to move on. Greenfield Red August 21, 2017 Hey Wes. I agree with your premise. Without looking back, I think Schebler actually only has 1 year of accumulated experience. He has 5 more years of club control. In my mind, ownership and management need only look in the mirror if they are unhappy with the pace of the rebuild. They held on to Frazier a half a season too long, and so insisted on Jose Peraza as the return, they had to involve a third team in the trade that actually received a better return than the Reds. JP may turn out to be great, and I hope he does, but so far, it doesn’t look like it. Then someone made the decision to dump Chapman at exactly the wrong time. It allowed the Yankees to greatly add to their farm system at the Reds expense. Although, now it appears the Yankees stubbed their toe in the way they always do (huge free agent contract that blows up in their face). There have been good trades too. I haven’t given up on Finnegan and Reed. Castillo could be a star. Picking of Gennett looks genius. I still think drafting Stephenson will work out just fine. The last two drafts look great. But, Frazier and Chapman were botched, and it’s on the Reds… no one else. Dick W. August 21, 2017 We are definitely NOT trading Schebler but you have convinced me to trade this Scherber guy. Bill August 21, 2017 Schebler’s RBI totals are likely out of his control and most likely due to OBA of players hitting in front of him (e.g., Duvall) or just statistical anomaly. Also, the guys hitting in front of him have pretty nice RBI totals, leaving fewer base runners to drive him. Schebler may deserve some credit for incentivizing opposing pitchers to challenge those hitting in front of him. Most trade buzz surrounds players that are obvious trade candidates that are being actively shopped by there team. No buzz does not mean no trade value. Where Schebler, Winker and Ervin were drafted is not a good basis for determining which player has the best potential today. Would you buy a house based on a 4-year old appraisal? How do there full year OPS compare this year? How did they compare at AAA or AA? The Reds will eventually want to make a choice between Duvall, Schebler, and Winker. All have pros and cons. All look like legit productive major leaguers. Pretty nice problem to have and there’s no reason to rush to break this little logjam. All 3 are under cheap control giving the Reds the kind of legitimate depth that highly competitive teams need. Tampa Red August 21, 2017 I’m starting to think this is Dale using an alias. Most likely the lack of trade buzz for Schebler is due to the same reason there was no trade buzz for Winker and Ervin, or Suarez, Duvall, Votto or Castillo etc for that matter….the Reds aren’t looking to trade them. They are a big part of the future. Schebler has now 648 big league AB’s. He has has 31 2B’s, 35 HR’s, 51 BB’s and 90 RBI. At roughly the same number of AB’s to start his career, Votto had 39 2B’s, 28 HR’s, 59 BB’s, and 101 RBI. Literally no one thinks Schebler is going to be the next Joey Votto. The point is, we don’t know who he’s going to be yet. Personally, my feeling is if he is allowed to develop he will be a fixture in the lineup for years to come and play borderline elite level defense. Trading him and his 5 more years of team control just for the sake of trading him or to make room for guys we know even less about it is simply absurd. greg August 21, 2017 I was starting to think the same thing. sultanofswaff August 21, 2017 +1. More to the point, if Winker or Duvall take a pitch off the hand and break a bone, what do you do then? Finally having some legitimate ML talent on the bench is a GOOD THING, especially when they’re making the league minimum. The manager gets paid big bucks to manage egos, it’s his job to keep everyone happy. Wes August 21, 2017 @sultan. What if it’s hamilton that takes one off the hand? Ervin is more versatile than Schebler. Can do more and play more positions. Duvall, Billy, Winker, and Ervin is 4th outfielder. Depth is good; log jam is bad. DaveCT August 21, 2017 Just say “Stephenson.” Wes August 21, 2017 I’m not saying trade Schebler- what I’m saying is Schebler doesn’t have enough value to keep playing in hope to get is value up to see if he can be traded eventually and he’s not a long term solution for Reds at RF. So he needs to go or be in AAA. To make him look decent- you have to combine several years of play to even get a seasons worth of stats for a 26 almost 27 year old. Do you really think anyone outside of reds fan base is going to view him in that manor? I’m not making the rules or being a hater- just understanding how MLB works viewing history and signing. Look up the 10 year history of corner outfielders getting traded and the returns. The trades are minimal and returns are terrible. Much better players than Schebler get released. Jay Bruce actually puts the numbers Schebler potentially can put up and he just got traded for a player who didn’t even make the Mets top 30 prospect list. Again, power hitting corner outfielders have very little value by other MLB franchises and that’s a fact based on history and evidence. I agree not buying a house on a 4 year old appraisal, but Reds have millions and millions invested in Ervin and Winker. Try to get a return on your investment vs potentially loosing it with prospect fatigue. Repeating AAA won’t be good for either guy when they both so little to prove at that level. Make room and let em play! Doug Gray August 21, 2017 You keep playing Schebler because he’s the best option you have right now. Period. And until Winker or Ervin are actually better options (and they aren’t, today), then this discussion should be over. Tampa Red August 21, 2017 Uhhhh, both Votto and Schebler debuted at 24. I think comparing their first roughly 650 AB’s is more than fair. Again I feel compelled to say this to stop you from going there: no one expects Schebler to develop into Votto, Part II. Simply looking at their early numbers. The Reds aren’t trying to get Schebler AB’s to trade him. They’re getting him AB’s because he’s a quality big league ball player who has a better big league OPS than Winker or Ervin have ever had in the minor leagues. Bill August 21, 2017 Wes, a prospects signing bonus should never enter into the value proposition of which player the Reds should give playing time to. It’s a sunk cost to the player development program. It’s actually less relevant than the 4-year old scouting reports that underpinned the draft decisions in years passed. Bill August 21, 2017 Wes, I agree it is hard to put a trade value on Schebler as teams rarely trade, low-cost, controllable, productive major league players for prospects. That fact comparable trades are hard to recall does not confirm the assertion that Schebler has no trade value. wes August 21, 2017 Here is the return for Will Myers- Rene Rivera Burch Smith Jake Bauers Steven Souza Jr. Travis Ott Matt Kemp- Yasmani Grandal Joe Wieland Zach Eflin Cespedes- Porcello (one of highest paid players in MLB) Hayward- Shelby Miller Tyrell Jenkins Only thing close to worth anything of value of return for Schebler is the Hayward trade and he was the #1 prospect in baseball and he is a gold glove caliber defender. Schebler has no trade value and that’s based on a history of factual evidence. You don’t play the best player at the time when rebuilding- you rebuild for the future. Or you will be rebuilding forever. Tampa Red August 21, 2017 That was not the complete trade for Wil Myers. There were 3 teams involved and the Rays got the worst of the deal. Players that matter: Rays — Souza Padres — Myers Nationals — Trea Turner and Joe Ross Comparing a potential return for Schebler at this point in he career to the 2014 Matt Kemp trade is laughable. Comparing Schebler to an international superstar who signed a $6.5 million contracts Fred leaving Cuba like Cespedes did is similarity laughable. When Heyward was traded he already had 5 full years in the big leagues and was traded because he was deemed unaffordable. How on earth is that in any way comparable to Scott Schebler? Bill August 21, 2017 Did any of these outfielders have 5 years of service time remaining when offloaded by their rebuilding team? Wes August 21, 2017 Please show me a trade then that aligns w value you believe he’s worth. I’m not comparing trades, I’m showing that schebler has no trade value. Bruce can’t get a top 30 prospect so what’s schebler going to get? Please put a value on him. And there’s a daily investment still in Ervin and winker to go along w investment over past several years so it matters and it for sure matters to reds organization when they lean to resign home grown talent more so than signing free agents. RE: mes bailey votto ect…. Doug Gray August 21, 2017 Jay Bruce makes good money and had no contract time remaining. Scott Schebler makes no money and has a ton of team control left. Trying to use one to say anything about the others trade value is about as far stretched as humanly possible. Tampa Red August 21, 2017 Wes you absolutely were comparing trades of other established players to a potential trade of Schebler. They were just absurd comparisons. I haven’t though about comparable trades because I think the Reds would be foolish to trade Scott Schebler at this point in his development unless it was one-sided or preferably part of a larger trade to secure an established starter. And since the only sensible point you’ve made is that you’re concerned about the investment the Reds ownership has made in Winker and Ervin, which to be frank, doesn’t seem very sincere, I’m out of this. This is going nowhere and I should have known better than to get involved. Wes August 21, 2017 Absolutely comparing huh? Man I’ve commented 3x on this one chain that schebler has no as in ZERO trade value. And when all-stars are traded that play corner outfield like kemp hayward and Meyer- even those guys bring back very little in return. Way more realistic point than thinking your going to bring back a starting MLB pitcher or even a top 10 organizational prospect for Schebler. You won’t put a value on him because you can’t. At best he’s a throw in final piece of a package deal just the same he was when the reds acquired him…. Bill August 21, 2017 Sorry, my reply above belonged down here: “Wes, I agree it is hard to put a trade value on Schebler as teams rarely trade, low-cost, controllable, productive major league players for prospects. That fact comparable trades are hard to recall does not confirm the assertion that Schebler has no trade value.” Thanks for the conversation, today. Bubba Woo August 21, 2017 Ervin’s not a long term answer to anything. At best he can hope to one day be a future Patrick Kivlehan. You can’t find a baseball person who thinks he’s a better player than Schebler, except for maybe when Schebler’s playing with a bum shoulder. Where a guy’s drafted should have no determination on anything except that Winker/Ervin probably started their career’s with a few more pesos in the bank than Schebler. sultanofswaff August 21, 2017 Interesting to hear the Cowboy advocate for bringing up Mahle in September and giving him a few starts. His point was that if you think this kid is part of the rotation next year, then it’s to his benefit to get his feet wet now. HavaKlu August 21, 2017 Amen to that. Also jettison Wood and Storen and bring up Chacin and Weiss. RedsKoolAidDrinker August 21, 2017 This ^ Brad August 21, 2017 I dont understand why Winker and Ervin cant get occasional starts with Duvall, Hamilton and Schebler entrenched. I completely understand that it is a long season. I understand guys get tired. For some reason the Reds dont like to sit regulars yet the most successful teams in baseball tend to rest guys more than Reds do. There is a personal element in sports, would have been a big deal to get Ervin a start in Atlanta. Billy Hamilton does not need to start 150 games a year. Duvall can use a day off in LF. I dont know between Ervin and Schebler who starts in CF but one of them can. Jacob Heatherly has quietly been very impressive in AZL. Could be an exciting draft class between him, Greene, Downs and Fairchild all potentially in Dayton at some point in 2018. Case can be a wildcard. Still wish Reds had signed Tommy Mace. The trio of Greene, Heatherly and Mace would be something to dream on. Cbus August 21, 2017 I think they should try and package Schebler with some prospects to get a good #2 or #3 starter with some team control left. This team needs Winker’s OBP more than Schebler’s power imo. You then move Suarez back to SS when Senzel is ready and let Peraza, Scooter and Herrera fight it out over 2nd and utility roles. Offense is then set for the next 4-5 years. Find some starting pitching and some health and you are competing again as early as 2018. Doug Gray August 21, 2017 No problem at all with that plan. But, until Schebler isn’t on the team, someone needs to outperform him to take his job. Right now, that’s not happening. Let’s also be sure to note, though, that outside of July, when we know Schebler was hurt, his OBP is .341, which is above-average. He’s definitely not hurting the team there, when healthy. RedsKoolAidDrinker August 21, 2017 Some people just need to let go oftheir tight grasp on Schebler’s jewels. Give the topic a rest please guys. I’m sure Doug has to be sick of the same spiel too. Doug Gray August 21, 2017 Yeah, but only every day am I tired of reading the same weird argument. Kap August 21, 2017 I think a logical trade partner for this idea is Oakland. For Graveman or Manaea. They have questions about their outfield going forward and Schebler might be an attractive target for them. I like this idea as well MIchael B. Green August 21, 2017 September call-up candidates: Alex Blandino Brandon Dixon Zack Vincej Sebastian Elizalde Barrett Astin Ariel Hernandez Evan Mitchell Darnell Sweeney Chad Wallach I think Blandino, Vincej and Hernandez defintely get the call. Thoughts on the others? MK August 21, 2017 All of these but Hernandez are going to need a 40-man roster spot to get a call-up and with them having to have a catcher I would think Wallach gets a spot. Hernandez and maybe one other might get a chance. HavaKlu August 21, 2017 As mentioned above—–Chacin And Weiss. Despite his power, Dixon to me strikes out too much and makes too many errors to be considered for a utility role. DaveCT August 21, 2017 There is a hidden value to Schebler and this is the benefit of having a Cro Magnon Man available to pulverize the baseball when necessary. MK August 21, 2017 The Reds have to be disappointed by their minor league catching depth. With Trees, Brown, Okey, and Hudson all hitting below .200, and Wallach not being far ahead of that, add to that the injury to Stephenson, who was having a decent offensive and defensive year, Boulware has had an OK year. Duarte and Tromp seem to be guys they move around when they need a body somewhere. Seems the best seasons are being had in the Rookie league by Ruiz, Clementina and Kolozsvary. Got to wonder who gets the call here soon when Tucker leaves for paternity. Greenfield Red August 21, 2017 I’m gonna say it’s Wallach… or they will grab someone off the waiver wire for a few days. They can’t keep 4 on the 40 man this winter. He may be a great guy, but he doesn’t appear to be a big part of the future. So he can be dfa’d in November and exposed to Rule 5. If not picked, they can reassign him to Louisville next year. MK August 21, 2017 Too bad Brantley took his option-out. He would probably have gotten a month’s service time Matt August 21, 2017 Interesting read on Seth Lonsway and why he turned down the Reds. $400k supposedly. Doug, isn’t that unusually high for where he was taken? http://pressprosmagazine.com/seth-lonsway-and-the-choice-of-choices-2/ Pat August 21, 2017 When you read this you ask why only 19th round. Sounds like he was unlikely to sign at a higher slot so the Reds took a flyer in the 19th round and tried to entice with a larger bonus. Yankees signed Rookie Davis (expected 3rd rounder) in the 14th round and gave him $500k. Or did this HS player see a jam up of prospects and not see the Reds as a fit? William Kubas August 21, 2017 Former Stanford Cardinal, Alex Blandino raises his on base percentage to .399, with is 5th home run in 144 at bats, scoring his 19th, 20th, and 21st runs, and gaining his 23rd and 24th base on balls since joining the Louisville Bats.