Projected salary arbitration numbers and other Reds notes Doug Gray October 9, 2017 38 Comments The Cincinnati Reds projected arbitration numbers are now up over at MLB Trade Rumors. They also have the projections for every other team, so go check it out. Below I’ve listed their projected salary as well as what they made in 2017 and what the raise would be. Player 2018 Projection 2017 Salary Raise Scooter Gennett $6,100,000 $2,525,000 $3,575,000 Billy Hamilton $5,000,000 $2,625,000 $2,375,000 Anthony DeSclafani $1,100,000 $585,000 $515,000 Eugenio Suarez $4,400,000 $595,000 $3,805,000 Michael Lorenzen $1,400,000 $555,000 $845,000 Raisel Iglesias $2,800,000 $4,214,286 -$1,414,286 It’s worth noting that Raisel Iglesias can choose to opt into arbitration, or he can just stick with his base salary. If he chooses his salary instead of arbitration he will make $5,214,286. I wouldn’t expect him to choose arbitration. For the other five players, they are projected to get a raise of $11,115,000 compared to 2017. All of that can be made up by free agency for Zack Cozart, Scott Feldman, Bronson Arroyo and Drew Storen. They will all come off of the books, freeing up $11,160,000. Of course, that doesn’t account for the raises to players like Joey Votto, Devin Mesoraco, Tucker Barnhart and Homer Bailey have on their current contracts. Those four players combine for $14,662,500 in raises from their 2017 salaries. MLB Pipeline names their Reds Players of the Year Last month I named Jose Siri the Cincinnati Reds Minor League Player of the Year and gave Tyler Mahle the nod for Pitcher of the Year. MLB Pipeline released their picks for the same awards and gave the nods to Nick Senzel and Tyler Mahle. Dayton Dragons Gear Auction Do you like awesome baseball jerseys, bats, baseballs and autographs? Do you like the Dayton Dragons or Cincinnati Reds prospects? If so, you may want to check out the auction that the Dragons are currently holding. There are autographed jerseys with every design made at Screen Printing & Embroidery from Tony Santillan, Taylor Trammell, Scott Moss, Jose Siri and manager Luis Bolivar. There’s also a group signed bat and ball package by Jose Siri and another one with autographs from Trammell, Santillan and Moss. 38 Responses Chi Reds Fan October 9, 2017 Dont forget the Brandon Phillips salary coming off the books which will fund most of the Votto/Mez etc. increases. I believe the Reds with the arb and salary increases would be left more or less at same total salary as last year. Perhaps slightly lower, what I do not know is what Castellini’s appetite for increasing total salary might be. Is it time to start trying to win? Bubba Woo October 10, 2017 Exactly! Assuming they’re willing to spend some more, which at this point in the rebuild, they should be, they need to use it to shore up SS. Either 1. Extend Suarez, buying up a few of his FA years, and move him back to SS in anticipation of Senzel coming or 2. Offer Cozart the 1 yr qualifier, and try to get him settled long term for something like 3 yr/40 mil. Patrick Brame October 9, 2017 I think scooter should be moved for bullpen help. 6.1M is just too much money for a player that is not a good defender and i can see regression in his future. jim October 9, 2017 geez learn your baseball Patrick Brame October 9, 2017 Real enlightened criticism. Doug Gray October 9, 2017 Wait, what? I feel like everything Patrick said is pretty much on par. Gennett isn’t known to be a good defender and he was listed among the most beneficial hitters in baseball from the juiced baseball. Regression is very, very likely coming. MK October 10, 2017 Patrick I agree with you but I am sure everyone else would think exactly the same way. Heck the Brewers gave him away rather than pay $2.5 million, who would want him at $6million. You are correct about the defense, he might turn a double play slower than any big league second baseman. Would not mind keeping him as a bench player but not for that price tag. If he would sign a 2-year deal for the 6 million I would consider it. Hopefully Shed will be ready by then. Alex Reds October 14, 2017 I agree with Patrick. $6M is too much for Gennett. The Reds are stockpiled in 2B prospects that are just about ready and with Suarez and Senzel, one might move to 2B. Also, I’d much rather save the $6M by cutting Gennett, then put the tag on Cozart for ~$17M. Getting Cozart for $11M (to lose what you would have paid Gennett) makes sense to me, well worth the 4+ WAR he will provide. Cozart can play a true SS, which Suarez, Senzel, Gennett, Blandino, Long etc. cant. Other than the light hitting Vincej and Peraza… Cozart is a huge upgrade in offense and defense. If out of contention, then pay off Cozart remaining salary, and trade him at the deadline (praying he’s healthy) for hopefully a nice enough return. Likely a better prospect in return than what you can sign for $11M in free agency and you can’t dip into international free agency for more than $300K anyways. wes October 9, 2017 Wow just saw Griffey Jr made 3.5 mil this year from reds payroll. Good grief MK October 10, 2017 Funny and surprising story, I was at a Cleveland SABR meeting back in 2009 where the Indians V.P of Finance was speaking and he told us the Indians were still paying John Denny $200 a month for a contract he signed in the early 1980’s. Most of the time the teams are forced to purchase an annuity at the time the contract is signed which pays the deferred payments. The annuity pays the team and the team pays the player. Kinsm October 14, 2017 He’ll make the same next year. Arroyo is due deferred salary as well. wes October 9, 2017 so as it stands Reds are set to have same in salary next season (115M) as they do for this season at this point; which is roughly as high as salaries have ever been in organization. Then the following season (2019), baileys last contract year, all those guys get a raise and Duvall will hit arbitration while Mesc falls off. So that’ll be 120M or more? Then if Reds add/extend a frontline starting pitcher under contract moving into 2020 they’ll have a payroll of atleast 135M? IDK if that’s possible….In the stretch run they’ll need to prep for a payroll of 150M+ or start tearing down roster…. Reds have very little room for error when it comes to locking up money in contracts for future seasons. Jasonp October 9, 2017 New Red’s TV deal and MLB TV deal are both getting the Reds more money then we had 4-5 years ago when our payroll was higher. MLB TV deal gave each team 25+ mil a year extra. I am not sure how much more our new TV deal is giving us but I think we should be able to go at a higher payroll rate then we use to be able to do. I don’t know if we will go higher but I think we could. Krozley October 9, 2017 Their salaries in 2017 were $95MM and that looks to be about the number as it stands now for 2018 if they don’t add anyone. That is the number generally used. I’m not sure where you are getting $115MM, but if you are trying to add in amateur signing bonuses and past accruals, those are always there and costs behind the scenes not typically used for the salary number (although that was an inflated expense this past year given the Cuban signings that will never be repeated to that extent given the new rules). In 2015, their salary number was about $122MM, so they have room to spend if needed, especially with new TV and MLB money. Norwood Nate October 9, 2017 Scooter’s, and maybe Lorenzen’s estimations seem a little high to me. I wouldn’t squabble much about it though because it’s not a big difference. I’d like Scooter more if it were closer to 5M and Lorenzen at 1M. Everything else seems on point. Maybe the Reds will try to move Gennett this offseason instead of paying the price tag, especially if he ends up relegated to a utility or platoon role if/when Senzel is called up. The Reds have just under $69 million locked into Votto, Bailey, Mesoraco, Iglesias (assuming he stays in contract) and Barnhart. There’s another $18 million sitting in arbitration, if those numbers are accurate. Putting the Reds around $87 million for 10 players. Probably around $8 million or so to fill out the roster with league minimum guys on hand. That puts it right around last year. There’s certainly room to grow from there. But I doubt we’ll see anything significant on the FA market. Maybe they’ll surprise us and bring in a quality starting pitcher or SS. Kap October 10, 2017 Gennett and another to the rays for Jake odorizzi Billy October 9, 2017 What’s a realistic payroll for the Reds? I know they have Bailey and Votto on the books, but I’ve had the perception that there just wasn’t reason to spend on a team that wouldn’t be competitive. I assumed a greater payroll could have been available if it were warranted. It just wasn’t. Now, inherent in that assumption was the belief that the team was saving that money up to be able to use it on future competitive teams. Is it time for that? Either way, shouldn’t we assume inflation will play some role in the payroll? When we were making the playoffs earlier this decade, you could buy wins for $5-6 M. Now they’re $7-8 M, right? I know attendance has been down, but I assume ticket prices are up. Are we ready and able to spend more now? Trey October 9, 2017 I’m just sorry Doug has to resort to a free ad in the third part. I respect your work but this is troubling. Doug Gray October 9, 2017 What ad are you talking about? I’m very confused here. Krozley October 9, 2017 Rookie Davis with hip surgery. Won’t be ready for ST. Sounds like the surgery Mez had. 44 Reds October 9, 2017 Does this free up a roster spot since Rookie can start the year on the 60 day DL? Doug Gray October 9, 2017 No. There’s no 60-day DL once the season ends. 44 Reds October 9, 2017 Am I the only one that thinks Scooter’s season may be more of a personal trend than an anomaly? He did show an increase in pop the previous year, and some of the advanced stats suggest some sustainability to the trend (I recall hearing this analysis, don’t ask me to quote those stats). I don’t expect him to match the year, but there have been plenty of guys figuring it out a little later in recent years (Daniel Murphy, for example). I would bet on him hitting around 20 HR if given a full season. Should still provide good value at 6 million/year whether a starter or super sub. Doug Gray October 9, 2017 I’d be shocked if he wasn’t worth his salary in 2018. But I’ll also be shocked if he comes close to repeating an .874 OPS. Wes October 9, 2017 I’ve always been high on scooter. I still can’t believe brewers let him go. He had a couple pretty good seasons early on. MLB is sticking w juiced ball again right? Doug Gray October 10, 2017 I’d guess that they make a baseball fix, just like they’ve done in the past when it was out of whack (1987 for example). Simon Cowell October 9, 2017 Disco didn’t pitch a single game and he get’s a pay raise? How does that work out? Doug Gray October 10, 2017 Because the raise isn’t based solely on 2017 – but on what he’s done to that point in his career. Simon Cowell October 10, 2017 And let me guess the salary never regresses if performance regresses? Doug Gray October 10, 2017 I don’t believe so, but it shouldn’t given that for the first three years, no matter what you do, you make the league minimum. greg October 10, 2017 Sort of the same way that a salary doesn’t proportionally go up in pre-arb years if the player’s performance merits it. MK October 10, 2017 if based on what he did before he still doesn’t deserve a raise. Doug Gray October 11, 2017 Anthony DeSclafani has provided the Cincinnati Reds with $40M in value based on what teams are paying in free agency for the production he provided. In those two seasons he made just over $1M. So, yeah, he absolutely deserved a raise based on what he did. Kinsm October 14, 2017 The club’s offer must be at least the MLB minimum salary, and, in most cases, must be at least 80% of the player’s previous year’s salary and at least 70% of the player’s salary from two seasons back. However, if the player received a raise in excess of 50% by a salary arbitration panel the previous season, a 20% maximum salary reduction from the previous season and a 30% maximum salary reduction from two seasons back does not apply, and the club only has to offer at least the MLB minimum salary. MK October 10, 2017 Disco getting a big raise seems somewhat ridiculous. Doug Gray October 10, 2017 Him getting paid league minimum before this year is more ridiculous, though. Shamrock October 11, 2017 Time to release Disco Let’s sign Scooter to a long-term team friendly deal Doug Gray October 11, 2017 What?