The Toronto Blue Jays are rumored to be interested in Cincinnati Reds outfielder Adam Duvall. While I would love to cite someone for credit on this rumor, it seems that everyone is pointing to someone else with credit, who is actually pointing to someone else within their report.
Adam Duvall was an All-Star in 2016. At the end of the season, though, he was a .795 OPS hitter built around power who had problems getting on base. In 2017 he wasn’t an All-Star, but was a similar hitter. In both seasons he had 30+ doubles and 30+ home runs. Power and defense are his calling cards and he stands out in both aspects.
On the flip side, he’s got some glaring weaknesses, too. Adam Duvall strikes out a ton. He’s got 334 strikeouts in the last two seasons. He also has a very low walk rate. Duvall has walked just 80 times between the last two seasons. His on-base percentage is a combined .299 in that span and he’s hit just .245. There’s not much hit there, and he doesn’t make up for that with a bunch of walks like some hitters do.
With all of that said, Adam Duvall is a flawed, but solid overall player. He’s probably about average overall as a player. That’s quite valuable. What also plays into the Reds favor if they move Duvall is that he had four years of team control left on his contract.
Power. Defense. Contract. That’s what the Reds would be selling as their key points in trading Adam Duvall. It’s what teams would be buying on, too. They will of course try to point out the flaws, but overall both sides understand what is there.
Trading Adam Duvall would open up a full time spot for Jesse Winker in left field. I believe that the Reds want Winker to be in the lineup every day. Trading Duvall isn’t the only way to make that happen, but it’s the rumor of the moment.
The needs for the Reds remain the same: Another center field option (whether that’s a bench guy or an upper minor leagues guy as insurance), another shortstop option (same as center field) and pitching. When the rumors were hot on the Billy Hamilton trade front (they’ve since been said to have slowed down with the Giants at the very least) it was stated that the team wouldn’t necessarily be looking for Major Leaguers or even guys on the verge of the Major Leagues.
If the Reds are looking at players that aren’t going to be used in 2018, or even 2019, then they don’t have to look at current needs and any player should be on the table. The Blue Jays system is well regarded, but the guys at the top are going to be untouchable. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are the top two guys and they aren’t being moved in the wildest of scenarios. Beyond those two, though, there are some pieces worth looking into. It’s tough to peg exactly what kind of return you could get for Adam Duvall.
A name that jumped out to me was catcher Danny Jansen. He hit .323/.400/.484 between Advanced-A, Double-A and Triple-A in 2017. He’s going to be 23-years-old next year and showed a good offensive profile last season. Where Jansen struggled as in throwing out base runners. He threw out 26 out of 108 base runners (24%) in 2017. The bat is more ready than the defense, but he could provide catching depth in Triple-A while rounding out things behind the plate. He’s not the only option, of course, but was just one that jumped out at me at first glance.
Update
The Atlanta Braves are also reportedly interested in Adam Duvall.
Teams have asked about Duvall as well as Hamilton. Braves are among teams on Duvall. Nothing hot at moment. #reds
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 13, 2017
The Braves farm system has taken a big hit lately as they’ve lost a bunch of prospects as punishment for skirting the international signing rules. And their top prospect is off the table as Ronald Acuna may be the best prospect in all of baseball. Still, there are parts in the system. Nothing seems close, though.