The Toronto Blue Jays are rumored to be interested in Cincinnati Reds outfielder Adam Duvall. While I would love to cite someone for credit on this rumor, it seems that everyone is pointing to someone else with credit, who is actually pointing to someone else within their report.

Adam Duvall was an All-Star in 2016. At the end of the season, though, he was a .795 OPS hitter built around power who had problems getting on base. In 2017 he wasn’t an All-Star, but was a similar hitter. In both seasons he had 30+ doubles and 30+ home runs. Power and defense are his calling cards and he stands out in both aspects.

On the flip side, he’s got some glaring weaknesses, too. Adam Duvall strikes out a ton. He’s got 334 strikeouts in the last two seasons. He also has a very low walk rate. Duvall has walked just 80 times between the last two seasons. His on-base percentage is a combined .299 in that span and he’s hit just .245. There’s not much hit there, and he doesn’t make up for that with a bunch of walks like some hitters do.

With all of that said, Adam Duvall is a flawed, but solid overall player. He’s probably about average overall as a player. That’s quite valuable. What also plays into the Reds favor if they move Duvall is that he had four years of team control left on his contract.

Power. Defense. Contract. That’s what the Reds would be selling as their key points in trading Adam Duvall. It’s what teams would be buying on, too. They will of course try to point out the flaws, but overall both sides understand what is there.

Trading Adam Duvall would open up a full time spot for Jesse Winker in left field. I believe that the Reds want Winker to be in the lineup every day. Trading Duvall isn’t the only way to make that happen, but it’s the rumor of the moment.

The needs for the Reds remain the same: Another center field option (whether that’s a bench guy or an upper minor leagues guy as insurance), another shortstop option (same as center field) and pitching. When the rumors were hot on the Billy Hamilton trade front (they’ve since been said to have slowed down with the Giants at the very least) it was stated that the team wouldn’t necessarily be looking for Major Leaguers or even guys on the verge of the Major Leagues.

If the Reds are looking at players that aren’t going to be used in 2018, or even 2019, then they don’t have to look at current needs and any player should be on the table. The Blue Jays system is well regarded, but the guys at the top are going to be untouchable. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are the top two guys and they aren’t being moved in the wildest of scenarios. Beyond those two, though, there are some pieces worth looking into. It’s tough to peg exactly what kind of return you could get for Adam Duvall.

A name that jumped out to me was catcher Danny Jansen. He hit .323/.400/.484 between Advanced-A, Double-A and Triple-A in 2017. He’s going to be 23-years-old next year and showed a good offensive profile last season. Where Jansen struggled as in throwing out base runners. He threw out 26 out of 108 base runners (24%) in 2017. The bat is more ready than the defense, but he could provide catching depth in Triple-A while rounding out things behind the plate. He’s not the only option, of course, but was just one that jumped out at me at first glance.

Update

The Atlanta Braves are also reportedly interested in Adam Duvall.

The Braves farm system has taken a big hit lately as they’ve lost a bunch of prospects as punishment for skirting the international signing rules. And their top prospect is off the table as Ronald Acuna may be the best prospect in all of baseball. Still, there are parts in the system. Nothing seems close, though.

46 Responses

  1. Brad

    I’d ask for 2 of:

    RHSP TJ Zeuch
    RHSP Sean Reid-Foley
    RHSP Nate Pearson
    SS Richard Urena
    RHSP Justin Maese
    C Riley Adams
    C Danny Jansen
    SS Kevin Smith

  2. Kap

    Would Logan Warmoth be a logical target or is that asking too much? Probably won’t need him for SS with Bichette near the majors although scouts say he may be better at 2nd

  3. kevin z

    I know wont happen but id want AA there 3 prospect . Then trade Hamilton to SF or Tex. Alford can play CF take over for billy

  4. todd

    Leaves the team too “lefty-heavy”. Winker + Schebler would get eaten alive. Need to keep Duvall and move Schebler and/or Hamilton.

    • CP

      Lefty heavy is probably better than righty heavy. There are a lot more right handed SP’s out there than left. But I see your point about wanting to have as balanced of a lineup as possible.

      Plus I don’t think Schebler has the value established the same way Duval does at this point. Next year is the establishing year for Schebler.

      I know Winker can be more of a complete hitter than Duval, but with his defensive limitations, and base running will not be a strength either, will his ceiling realistically be that much higher than Duval?

      • Doug Gray

        I’m a believer that offense is more valuable than defense at corner spots and given that Duvall’s value is built entirely on home runs and defense, yes, I think Winker’s ceiling is realistically higher by a bit than Duvall’s.

      • Gaffer

        Great American increases power numbers so it is always good to trade away players like Duvall. Winker will hit 15-20 HR no problem, but actually get on base.

    • Clammy

      Schebler did fine vs. LH last year.

      vs. LHP .276 avg. .290 obp .493 slg .782 OPS
      vs RHP .215 avg .313 obp .481 slg .794 OPS

  5. Hingle M

    Great ! Another catcher. No lefties in the pen really, but another lefty.

  6. Shamrock

    Max Pentecost is a better prospect than Danny Jansen (and he wouldn’t cost us a 35hr 100+rbi a year gold glove leftfielder)
    Once again, you’re disappointing me here Doug…….

    • Doug Gray

      If Max Pentecost had a shoulder that didn’t seem like it got injured every five times he threw a baseball, you’re right. But, he’s had two shoulder surgeries in the last three years and was shut down in fall ball because his shoulder was hurting after throwing from behind the plate. If Pentecost is a first baseman because his shoulder is trashed, he’s not all that valuable at all.

      But if you want to be disappointed in that, go for it. But it is what it is.

      • MK

        Seems like he would fit the Reds acquisition guidelines, except they would know this guy has a bad arm before acquiring him rather than finding out after the fact.

    • Shamrock

      How about Billy H. and Adam D. in exchange for Bichette and Guerrero?
      Two proven MLB starters in exchange for two up and comers who’ve got a boatload of potential…
      (i could get behind this sorta move, even if it never works out)

      • Shamrock

        Oh, and we still snatch up Pentecost tomorrow morning.
        Call it basically a two for three deal!!

      • Tyler

        There’s no way the Blue Jays would ever trade Vlad Jr and Bichette for Duvall and Hamilton. That’s laughable. I doubt you could even make that happen on a video game.

    • Colorado Red

      If you really want Pentecost, Rule 5 draft, and he is only 100K

  7. Krozley

    Price commented that at least a couple guys who have been starters throughout their minor league careers are going to be asked to compete only for a bullpen spot. He won’t tell us who he means because the players and apparently the FO haven’t been told yet. He mentioned RStephenson, Mahle, Lorenzen, and Romano in contention for the rotation. That leaves Reed, Garrett, and Stephens as the prime suspects, although I guess Lopez, Mella, and the injured guys (Moscot & Davis) could be as well. Given the trend that good middle relievers are getting $9 million a year contracts, this seems a better option I guess.

    • Jasonp

      I think Jackson Stephens would be a good reliever. I would like to see Reed and Garrett have half a year as a starter (in the minors) then see if they should be swapped to a reliever.

    • victor vollhardt

      Need to leave the current outfield trio alone and add Winker as a fourth outfielder. Three full time players generate about 1600 to 1700 AB per season. Give each one 400 to 450 AB—same thing. Sit Hamilton against some tough pitchers , but make sure he always plays in those parks with the big outfields. Give Duvall more rest breaks and I think he will put up more consistent numbers. He has an underlining medical condition that wears him down. Sit Schebler so he does’t get overpowered by some elite pitchers. Winker moves between left and right field–no center field. It is wonderful to talk about all the prospects that each team has, BUT please remember that is what they are—prospects. Any trades should should consider proven MLB players.

      • Doug Gray

        The Reds can’t afford adding proven MLB players in most cases. It’s unfortunate, but reality.

      • FancyPants

        Agree, Reds could add ML talent, they just don’t want to spend the $$$ to do it. They’d rather ask fans to spend for ML prices for AAAA players in many instances

  8. Kap

    Duvall to the Braves for Cristian Pache and Touki Toussaint. All for that trade if it happened

  9. CP

    @JonHeyman
    Teams have asked about Duvall as well as Hamilton. Braves are among teams on Duvall. Nothing hot at moment. #reds

  10. Piggly Wiggly

    Duvall and Scooter to Toronto is a match made in baseball heaven. The Jays package doesn’t have to be all prospects. RHRP Dominic Leone could pair with Iglesias and Lorenzen to form a new Nasty Boys.

  11. Hoyce

    Ha. Did u even watch lore zen last year. He was terrible. Or maybe that’s the nasty u a re referring to?

    • Piggly Wiggly

      Do you even watch the games? Or do you just sit and listen to Marty bloviate? I am talking Michael Lorenzen. He had a bad stretch in the summer, but after changing back on a mechanical issue in his delivery, he was better.
      Schooled !!!

  12. Wes

    Any of Braves top pitching prospects is what reds need. One of Wright, Soroka, Anderson, Gohara, wentz. And that’s a great trade for reds and Braves.

  13. L.A. Red

    Seems like a good time to push as hard as you can with the Royals and see how much their willing to give up…then call the Marlins see what they want for Yellich and make a 3-way trade using the Royals pieces so we can try and keep guys like Trammell and Mahle or at least only have to give up one of them.

    There will and/or can be a million trade permutations but you guys get my point. If we’re trying to win now and someone wants to give us minor league assets then I’d be trying to ship whatever I get out the backdoor to a team that’s got something i can use now.

    Agree or disagree?

  14. Mango

    He isn’t listed as a prospect anymore, but I think getting Dalton Pompey as part of a Blue Jays package would be nice. He could use a change of scenery and it would give you a CF if you trade Hamilton.

  15. Michael B. Green

    Duvall, Hamilton and a pitcher for Stroman and Pompey? Would love to get Teoscar Hernandez but I bet he stays in TOR. I doubt TOR deals any of their top prospects.

  16. Piggly Wiggly

    I believe MLB will have to revamp their winter meetings to avoid the snoozefest this year turned into. Last year was almost as bad. This was a colossal waste of money for many people, teams and media. Snoozefests don’t generate much fan buzz for the industry’s off-season showcase. No other league has such an event. And this one is dieing a harsh death.

  17. icehole3

    What will the Reds lose next year at least 90 games? Everyone should be on the table except Votto right?

  18. The Duke

    From the Braves I’d ask for Ian Anderson as the main piece for Duvall, and maybe a secondary piece like Drew Waters or AJ Minter.

    For the Blue Jays if they are interested in Gennett as well, I hop on that (selling at peak value), but if it’s just Duvall I’d say something like Anthony Alford and Danny Jansen. A lot of question marks in their system once you get past the top 2.

    • kevin z

      Agree should see what can get for Scooter at highest peak, Now with Senzel trying new spots, unless trade Suarez need open spots.

      Is it crazy to think of a Suarez at 3rd Senzel at SS Peraza at 2nd? Seager Correa are taller SS just throwing it out there for Fun

  19. Shamrock

    Well, that was stupid.
    Especially skipping Burch Smith (he was picked #6)

    Let’s choose to use better language. Thanks.

  20. kevin z

    If ATL wants Duvall want Pache he a tool shed they have acuna
    If Tor wants Duvall want Olivares tool shed type player as well