Cincinnati Reds Minor League Game Review – 4/14/18 Doug Gray April 15, 2018 34 Comments If you aren’t signed up to support the site through Patreon yet, you can do that today and start getting emails each morning with notes and updates from each game (and other perks, including a rundown of how each of the Reds Top 25 prospects performed the night before). Louisville lost 7-6. Box Score Tyler Goeddel went 2-5. Nick Senzel went 1-5 with a solo home run (1). Rosell Herrera went 3-5 with a double, triple, and a run. Steve Selsky went 1-5 with a solo home run (2). Brandon Dixon went 1-4, was hit by a pitch, and scored a run. Rafael De Paula threw 1.2 shutout innings with 2 walks and 4 strikeouts. Tanner Rainey threw a shutout inning with a strikeout. Evan Mitchell threw a shutout inning with a strikeout. Pensacola lost 3-2. Box Score C.J. McElroy went 1-4 with a double and a run. Josh VanMeter went 2-3 with a run. Gabby Guerrero went 1-4 with a double and an RBI. Chad Tromp went 1-3. Kevin Shackelford (rehab) threw a shutout inning. Robinson Leyer threw 1.2 shutout innings with 2 strikeouts. Kevin Canelon threw 2.1 shutout innings with 3 strikeouts. Daytona lost 18-13. Box Score Malik Collymore went 2-5 with a walk, 2 steals, and 2 runs. Taylor Trammell went 2-4 with a walk, solo home run (2), and 3 RBI. Tyler Stephenson went 3-3 with 2 walks, 2 doubles, 3 runs, and 3 RBI. Mitch Nay went 2-5 with 2 home runs (3) and 5 RBI. Daniel Sweet went 2-5 with a home run (1) and 2 RBI. Brantley Bell went 1-4 and was hit by a pitch. Dayton was postponed. Double header Sunday afternoon. 4/15 Game Preview Team 1st half 2nd half Time (ET) Probable Box Score Listen Live Watch Live Louisville 3-6 N/A 1:35pm Nicolino Here Here Here Pensacola 4-5 0-0 2:05pm Strahan Here Here Here Daytona 8-2 0-0 5:35pm TBA Here Here N/A Dayton 5-3 0-0 2:05pm Bautista/Greene Here Here Here 34 Responses kevinz April 15, 2018 a lil worried about Senzel only cuz not walking but Striking out alot mayb same as last year though. Hope Rosell Herrera keep it up getting better using his long lanky body which his been his main goal . Read he better playing everday since better at adjusting during the game MikeD April 15, 2018 Tyler Stephenson and Taylor Trammell are exciting to follow! Doug, do you believe that Stephenson will stay behind the plate? I think about Joe Mauer lost some offensive strength from his 8 years behind the dish. The Twins moved him to first base with the hopes of prolonging his offensive skills, but it seems like the rigors had set in. Perhaps not being engaged and being behind the plate had a negative affect on his offense. Bench talked of this when the Reds tried to move him. Stephenson’s size (6′ 4″) is similar to Mauer’s (6’5″) and that certainly does have its physical challenges long term. Regardless, Stephenson seems only to have to stay healthy in order to become a special player. Trammell is just as impressive and appears to have a sky high trajectory. Though he may lack a great arm, if he can stay in center, the Reds have themselves another near future building block. This current Reds team is a mess and I hope the knee jerk reaction isn’t to trade the future to somehow make it better now. The rebuild process has been poorly executed, however I would see the Reds being very good in 3 year if they hold on to the core young guys that are on the way. MK April 15, 2018 I think if you asked Tyler he would tell you his next choice of a position it would be pitcher. I understand he used to bug Billings coaches about allowing him to pitch. RobL April 15, 2018 I would argue that the rebuild has not been poorly executed. It has certainly been problematic. No market for Cozart, and Chapman’s domestic issue hurt turning assets into quality players. But there were lots of shrewd moves as well. Straily to Castillo and Scooter are great moves with the waiver wire. Castillo, Romano, Stephenson, Mahle, and Rookie all got MLB experience last year and were hoped to contribute this year. So far, none have been successful. Again, Desclafani, Finnegan, and Lorenzen start the year hurt. Suarez breaks his thumb. Rainey and Weiss both bomb in their first call up. This team is not contending this year, but I don’t think the process has been wrong. The outcome has been to this point. But remember, the Reds have only had two years of high picks, so they should not provide any current help. So the team is reliant on trades and talent already on hand before the team started losing. Yelich wouldn’t have helped this team. 32 year old Lorenzo Cain getting 80 million over the next 5 years isn’t helping this team. The process has been sound. Sure you can argue about decisions on the periphery, like Gallardo or Gohora. But for any questionable decision, you can point to a good call. SteveLV April 15, 2018 Pretty much agree with you, Rob – and would add Suarez (both the trade and the extension) to the list of smart moves. Small market teams don’t have much room for mistakes and they have made a few, though. The real key to the rebuild is finding 4 starters from the 8 or so options available (not including Bailey, who will be gone by then). Once the starters are in place, then it will be time to make a move on a Yelich/Cain type deal – and a top 3 starter – to put them over the top. If the starters don’t emerge it will be Rebuild 2.0. MuddyCleats April 15, 2018 I think the combo of no 2 little FA help, lack of quality trades 4 BP, Bruce, Frazier & Chapman & Reds weird inability 2 develop young talent since Krivskey? Left is more telling of Reds problems than draft position? MuddyCleats April 15, 2018 Cueto trade hasn’t been very good either The Duke April 15, 2018 If T Steph makes it, I kind of thought he might catch until Votto is done, and then shift to 1B if the bat plays well enough. MikeD April 15, 2018 Rob, I won’t say I disagree completely with you, but this rebuild should have started much sooner. I love Joey a lot, but his talents and cost are a waste at this point. Doing nothing with Cozart is absolutely wrong. At worse, they should have traded him for a single A long shot. Nothing is nothing. I understand the timing of his injuries did not help, but the Reds could have moved on him sooner. He was a great player in many ways for them and I miss him, but in order to build you can’t wait one day too long. MK, that’s awesome insight and made me laugh. His bat is way to valuable to loose. Sorry Tyler! RedsinWashSt April 16, 2018 So you saying Cozart could have been traded earlier if they knew he was going to get injured later. Then you don’t know if the owner was blocking a trade earlier. The perfect time to trade Cozart was the all star game last year, he was at his highest point but he ended up hurting himself. Maybe Price could have given him more rest. Things happen. Clammy April 15, 2018 Brutal line for Nick Howard in the Daytona game Norwood Nate April 15, 2018 I don’t know how anyone can say the rebuild has been a success so far. I can see where an argument could be made that it’s been derailed by injuries, because there’s been a lot of them. But even injuries, which every club suffers proportionally over time, aren’t enough of an excuse to say the rebuild has gone well. The missteps along the way far outweigh the few positives that have emerged. The Reds FO made the inexplicable decision to target “near-ready” prospects over higher upside talent when trading established talent. This is a glaring example of poor execution of a rebuild plan that was going to take several years. Instead of taking a riskier chance on getting an elite talent, the Reds settled for average-ish talent to act as a band-aid when the Reds wouldn’t be competitive. As a result we received average-ish results from Duvall, Schebler, Finnegan (when healthy), below average results from Peraza, Reed, Brice, Davis, Herrera and a bunch of others who have washed out the organization. The only prospect on Doug’s Top 25 rankings that came via trade is Nick Longhi (#23), who was acquired for the right to use international bonus money the Reds couldn’t spend. Not a single prospect left to point to from the rebuild that’s coming up in the system. Let that sink in. The Reds also failed to execute trades at proper times throughout the rebuild. They completely missed the boat at the trade deadline in 2015. They failed to capitalize on their assets at peak value. All of Chapman, Frazier, and Bruce should have been traded that summer. Cozart should have been traded at the deadline in 2016. Hamilton should have been traded this past offseason when there was plenty of reported interest. The Reds compounded their own failure to strike while the iron was hot, and made a panic trade of Chapman when his value was at an all-time low. Phillips, and this one is on WJ, should have been traded years ago before he gained 10 and 5 right and handcuffed the organization’s ability to gain any value from him. Between Phillips, Cozart, Bruce, and Chapman (all four former All-Stars and above average players) who should have all been trade chips to rebuild on the Reds have nothing to show for it beyond an oft-injured and mediocre Rookie Davis. The Reds failed to execute trades at the right times, and also to get value for their players. The Reds also seemed to put all their eggs in the Jose Peraza basket, setting up two different trades to acquire him. Which is odd, because the report on Peraza at the time was his stock was falling (represented in his prospect status dropping after the trade), that he had little power, a poor plate approach, and questions about his position. Well that’s pretty much all proved true. He still doesn’t walk, takes some horrific swings which leads to weak contact, and hasn’t really proven that he can hold down a position in the infield. Another weird move by the FO, targeting a guy with so little upside as an impact player that the organization went all in to acquire him. The Reds have also kept a bad manager in place for inexplicable reasons, who has seemingly lost this team and the fan base, makes dumbfounding decisions constantly, and cannot seem to figure out how to put his players in positions to succeed or utilize his roster competently. The very early returns of Suarez and Disco were good. The opportunistic move of flipping Straily for Castillo was also good. The drafting has been good as well, and it has been for the most part over a decade. Turning over the waiver wire to find hidden gems has provided some value as well. It’s just not enough. This year the Reds should start showing signs of returning to competitive baseball, but it’s their worst start since the 50’s. Injuries have played a part, but not as much as the failure of the FO to execute moves at the right time and for real value. Stock April 15, 2018 Well said Norwood. The Reds FO is a mess. People look at two trades and one FA pickup and think great things. But as you say they constantly fail to pull the trigger in a timely manner. They focused on Peraza when all others determined he was over-rated. I do still like Schebler if he can stay healthy he could make that trade look good. One thing I do disagree with is that you state the Reds past drafts the last 10 years have been good. I say that between 2008 and 2014 they had one good draft (2009). Outside of that the 2008 and 2010 drafts were below average (Producing Alonso and Grandal). The 2011-2014 drafts were a disaster. These 4 drafts produced one potential regular (Winker), two bullpen arms (Cingrani, Lorenzen), four minor league players in Doug’s top 25 (Long, Weiss, Ervin, Blandino) and Stephenson. All disaster drafts. I do think the last 3 drafts have promise. Each has the potential to produce at least 2 ML regulars. Norwood Nate April 15, 2018 We may just differ in how we determine what a good draft means. In general the Reds have had their first round picks (and a good amount of supplemental picks) make it to the majors. Considering the percentage of 1st round picks that even make it to the majors I’d consider that a success. From 2008-2013 the Reds have had all but one first round pick make it. The exception is Nick Travieso who has been injured, and was progressing nicely before that injury. Hopefully he can bounce back. Winker was a supplemental pick that year and he looks to be a solid contributor. The only true “miss” is Nick Howard, and even in that draft Blandino as the comp pick has made it to the Reds and looks to be able to contribute in some capacity. For as much of a crapshoot the draft can be, the Reds tend to have a pretty good “hit” rate. Tom April 15, 2018 A correct summary and enjoyable read! MK April 15, 2018 One problem with being critical of trades is I think most Reds fans, with the exception of Chapman and Cueto, have over valued Reds talent. In Cueto’s case all of the experts believed the Reds fleeced the Royals in that deal. It hasn’t worked out but at the time they couldn’t do much better. For Frazier they got their starting shortstop (again experts saying he was top prospect) and right fielder plus another potential big leaguer. Two starters and potential player for a guy Reds fans overvalued because he is a great person who has topped out with a .225 BA since he was traded. Obviously the oft injured Cozart had less value than was assumed, especially as a shortstop as he signed for less than expected as a third baseman. If they could they would have traded him for anything. Chapman literally shot a hole in his trade value and they probably should have kept him and rolled the dice until the trade deadline.Latos, Strailey, and Simon like Frazier were winners. MK April 15, 2018 Dragons cancelled again today. Greene was supposed to pitch yesterday hope this doesn’t screw him and other young guys up for the very near future, The Duke April 15, 2018 I doubt he ever warmed up for any of them, they were all cancelled well in advance. If that is the case the extra rest should be fine. Adam April 15, 2018 How could it mess them up? Doug Gray April 15, 2018 Maybe they slipped on the ice leaving the hotel to get on the bus? (this did not happen) Stock April 15, 2018 Promising starts by Trammell and Stephenson. OPS of 1.000 or more for both. Both have more BB than K. Trammell is a year younger than Senzel was last summer when he was at Daytona and Stephenson is the same age. Players in the majors that have an OPS >= 1 and more BB than K this year include Didi, Jose Martinez, Mookie Betts and Adam Eaton. If you add the constraint of BB/AB% > 17.5% you are left with Didi and Mookie. Good company for these two. It is early but promising results nonetheless. AirborneJayJay April 15, 2018 Tyler Goeddel again. I hope we see him in Cincinnati soon. Might be an improvement on Ervin. Datdudejs April 15, 2018 Are you not doing the top 25 stats for the day any longer Doug? Doug Gray April 15, 2018 Only on Mondays for the site. Patreon peeps get it every day. Datdudejs April 15, 2018 Well that sucks MikeD April 15, 2018 Patreon is worth every bit of the $15 a month! Can you imagine it only actually being $5! So if Homer continues to pitch as he is, does he become tradeable? I know that’s not a word, don’t banish me Doug! The Reds could use Mez in the lineup somewhere. He truly looks much more dangerous than most the others in this lineup. Doug Gray April 15, 2018 I can imagine someone being able to sign up for as little as $1 a month! I think that maybe, if Homer Bailey is healthy, and performing well, and it’s July, it’s possible you could move him. Kindell April 15, 2018 The Reds really need Schebler and Winker to get back. I like Ervin, but he is not a starting corner outfielder right now at the Major League level. Cguy April 15, 2018 Nor will he ever be. I’d send him down in favor of R. Hererra right now. The Rage April 15, 2018 Adios Bryon. Nice knowing yeah. Homer was decent, but Bryon needed 9 shutout innings. MikeD April 15, 2018 Rage, do you know something we don’t? Steve April 15, 2018 With both Vargas and Garcia struggling at Dayton, I’d like to see Alejo Lopez get a look. After his year at Billings in 2017, he deserves to get some PT in Dayton. Cguy April 15, 2018 Another good outing for lefty Nicolino. he has some experience as a ML reliever. Reed & Garrett in Reds bullpen, but newcomer Nicolino in Bats rotation? How many relievers have Jocketty/Williams decided to turn back into starters? Any successes yet? Bill April 15, 2018 Nicolino has had far more starts than relief appearances thus far as a professional.