If you aren’t signed up to support the site through Patreon yet, you can do that today and start getting emails each morning with notes and updates from each game (and other perks, including a rundown of how each of the Reds Top 25 prospects performed the night before).

Louisville had the day off.

Pensacola lost 4-1. Box Score

Daytona was postponed. Double header Tuesday afternoon.

Dayton lost 4-3. Box Score

5/15 Game Preview

Team 1st half 2nd half Time (ET) Probable Box Score Listen Live Watch Live
Louisville 12-21 N/A 7:05pm Nicolino Here Here Here
Pensacola 16-22 0-0 7:35pm Gutierrez Here Here Here
Daytona 22-13 0-0 4:00pm Boyles/Santillan Here Here N/A
Dayton 18-16 0-0 10:35am Rodriguez Here Here Here

44 Responses

  1. Wes

    Kinda shocked about results last night. Was fully expecting Da Reds to win out.

    If disco can get back to form- reds “super deep” pitching rotation is finally starting to look that way! I’m a big fan of competition- earn your way into the rotation.

    Reply
  2. SultanofSwaff

    I still say Big Sal will get bumped from the rotation when Disco returns. Let’s face it, Homer isn’t going anywhere, so who’s the next guy? Romano isn’t striking out a ton of guys and is giving up more than a hit per inning pitched w/o the benefit of a low BB rate. My pet peeve with the whole rotation is the over reliance on the fastball, and Sal left it thigh high all night, not getting any downward plane on it despite his height. He really should’ve been pulled early in the 3rd inning. I think he’s better suited to the bullpen, where like Garrett, his fastball/slider combination would play up and lead to more strikeouts and fewer hits. It still leaves the Reds with BobSteve and Stephens as insurance.

    Reply
    • SultanofSwaff

      Given the depth in the bullpen and the number of off-days each month, one could easily argue for a 4 man rotation. The Reds have a month until they play a stretch of 10 games in a row, and looking further out they only play 10 in a row once a month. This could easily be managed by pulling someone up for a spot start. Any anyhow, we’re only getting 5 innings out of our starters for the most part and the bullpen isn’t getting trashed, so why not? There’s so much youth on the pitching staff the Louisville shuttle could easily accomodate the need for fresh arms.

      Reply
      • SteveLV

        I think this misses the point that right now we’re trying to find/build a starting rotation and every game is an opportunity to learn – for the pitchers and the team. Limiting the number of pitchers to whom you provide those opportunities is counterproductive – to say nothing of the potential damage you might do to the 4 starters that remain. We’re not trying to win now – clearly. We’re trying to build a team to win in the next few years.

  3. Stock

    I have always felt Sal Romano is not good enough to start for a decent MLB team. He is a #6 or #7 SP. The fact that he is starting for the Reds tells you about the quality of their rotation.

    The Homer Bailey contract was a mistake and over payment from day 1. Bob stuck his head in and made a huge mistake. This has been my position from day one and he has done nothing the last 4 years to change my position.

    Reply
    • B-town Fan

      The Bailey contract was not a mistake unless you could see into the future. He had not had any injury problems up that point in his career. He was one of the top 10 or 15 pitchers in major league baseball at the time, and his career was on the upswing. You where paying for present and future performance not past performance like a lot large contracts. It was just bad luck, with all the injuries.

      Reply
      • Greenfield Red

        Hey B-town. I agree with this, although maybe top 25 or 30 rather than top 15.

        I’m not picking on you Stock, because I normally agree with you. But, I have a question for you: How will the Barnhart and Suarez contracts turn out?

      • Stock

        B-Town Fan,

        Here is a quick summary of contracts signed by pitchers about the time of Bailey’s signing. If you take the three year war prior to the signing in comparison to the non-arb average annual salary Bailey was the 2nd worst signing in the group behind only Rick Porcello. But when you consider Bailey got two more years and was still under team control for 2 more years I consider it easily the worst.

        If you look at Career war Bailey is still 2nd worst in the group behind only Chris Sale. This is misleading also because Sale was only in the majors 3 years when the Sox gave him a long term extension. So in my opinion if you look at Career War Bailey is still the worst signing of the group. This chart probably will not turn out too pretty.

        Non Arb Avg/ Career 3 Yr Car Avg Sal/ Avg Sal/
        Pitcher Sign Yrs Amt Yrs Amt Year War War War Career War 3 year War
        Porcello 2015 4 82.5 4 82.5 20.63 22.4 7.4 15.4 1.34 2.79
        Homer 2013 6 105 4 86 21.5 13.8 8.3 13 1.65 2.59
        Hughes 2015 3 24 3 24 8 18 3.3 9.7 0.82 2.42
        Lester 2014 6 155 6 155 25.83 41.6 11.1 29.6 0.87 2.33
        Sale 2012 7 58.5 3 37.5 12.5 35.4 6.5 6.5 1.92 1.92
        Scherzer 2014 7 210 7 210 30 42.7 15.7 25.7 1.17 1.91
        Hamels 2012 6 144 6 144 24 45.2 13 28.1 0.85 1.85
        Price 2015 7 217 7 217 31 37.6 16.8 31.9 0.97 1.85
        Zimmerm 2015 5 110 5 110 22 22.2 12 20.4 1.08 1.83
        Greinke 2012 6 147 6 147 24.5 52.5 13.6 32.3 0.76 1.8
        Kershaw 2013 7 215 6 211 35.17 57.6 20.1 30.7 1.15 1.75
        Lohse 2012 3 33 3 33 11 26.4 6.6 22.2 0.5 1.67
        Gio Gon 2011 7 66 3 36 12 27.3 7.2 6.5 1.85 1.67
        Shields 2014 4 75 4 75 18.75 30.7 11.4 30.8 0.61 1.64
        Sanchez 2012 5 88 5 88 17.6 24.2 10.8 13.6 1.29 1.63
        Cain 2013 5 127.5 5 127.5 25.5 29.8 16.1 28.4 0.9 1.58
        Garza 2013 4 50 4 50 12.5 23.2 7.9 17.5 0.71 1.58
        Felix 2012 7 175 7 175 25 51.3 16.8 35.4 0.71 1.49
        Buehrle 2012 4 58 4 58 14.5 51.9 10.1 43 0.34 1.44
        Sabathia 2011 5 122 5 122 24.4 64.9 17.4 52.2 0.47 1.4
        Justin V 2012 7 170 7 170 24.29 55.4 19.5 37.5 0.65 1.25
        Madison 2012 7 59 3 35.5 11.83 29.4 9.7 9.7 1.22 1.22
        Cliff Lee 2010 5 120 5 120 24 47.3 20 28.1 0.85 1.2
        Wainwri 2013 5 97.5 5 97.5 19.5 39.8 16.3 29.5 0.66 1.2
        Kluber 2014 5 38.5 3 37 12.33 26.4 10.8 10.8 1.14 1.14
        Halladay 2011 3 60 3 60 20 65.2 19.9 55 0.36 1.01
        Quintana 2014 5 21 3 30 10 10.2 10.2 10.2 0.98 0.98

        Here is the career war (at the time of the signing) of those who signed $100 million + contracts.

        Homer 13.8
        Zimmerm 22.2
        Cain 29.8
        Price 37.6
        Lester 41.6
        Scherzer 42.7
        Hamels 45.2
        Cliff Lee 47.3
        Felix 51.3
        Greinke 52.5
        Justin V 55.4
        Kershaw 57.6
        Sabathia 64.9

      • HavaKlu

        Not true. He had 3 separate DL stints due to shoulder problems in the years preceding his contract.

      • Doug Gray

        Three years prior he had them. The previous two seasons he threw 200+ innings in each season.

    • Billy

      Thinking back to the Bailey contract… We were in a position where we could sign one of Bailey, Cueto, or Latos – maybe two if we were “lucky”. We signed Bailey since he was due to hit free agency first. If we hadn’t signed Bailey to the big contract, we probably would have used the money to sign either Cueto or Latos long-term, right? And if we did that, would we be in any better shape now? I kind of doubt it.

      I don’t really remember anyone at the time suggesting that we should trade them all or let them walk. At the time, the Reds were flying high, and it was just a question of figuring out which one(s) should be signed. Turns out that the best answer is probably none of them.

      Reply
      • wes

        Cueto was the only sensible signing and that should have been blatantly obvious. He is and has always been vastly superior to homer- Not even close! You can run Cueto out against a Bumgarner/Kershaw and feel like you have a chance- I never felt that way with Homer. He is currently hurt but 3-0 w a .84 era and .69 whip in 5 starts. Signing Homer over Cueto rivals trading Chapman for peanuts as Reds worst move of past decade.

      • Greenfield Red

        As I recall, at the time, it was widely believed that Cueto would eventually be the one to break down because of his max effort delivery.

      • Stock

        Pitchers are tough to gamble on. Philadelphia used to have a rule that they would only offer a SP a 3 year contract. Of course that means you don’t get any of the top line FA but you are not stuck with a Bailey contract either.

    • Stock

      Greenfield,

      I really love both contracts. I am probably alone here but I always loved the Votto contract. Bailey never had the work ethic to deserve the contract he received. Bailey never had the results to deserve the contract he received.

      Between the past results, work ethic and inherent injury risk associated with pitchers this was a bad contract from day one. A contract he could never earn.

      Reply
      • Greenfield Red

        I think what teams are figuring out finally is that the huge free agent contracts rarely benefit the team. Interestingly, the Votto contract is working out so far… but there are so many years left. Obviously with hindsight the Bailey and Mesarocco contracts did not. I’ll even go back to the Griffey contract. It seemed to me they gave up too much to get him, and then doubled down with a contract that really hurt the team’s chances to sign or develop others.

      • MK

        Sat next to Castelini in Dayton at one of Homer’s rehab starts last year and he honestly thinks Homer is all that and more. Could have had a role in giving the contract over Cueto.

      • Stock

        I loved the Griffey and Meso contracts also. I thought the Griffey trade was going to put another banner in the stadium

      • B-town Fan

        Stock
        As I said above Homers contract was for current performance and geared toward future expected performance based on heading into his prime age years and upward trajectory of his performance. Just off of the top of my head I said top 10 or 15, I was wrong, sorry. He was the 17th ranked pitcher by WAR in 2013. Kershaw of course was #1 others like Cole Hammels #11 David Price #13 and the late Jose Hernandez was #18. That was the company that Homer was among at the end of 2013. Now if you want go back and look at those 2 to 3 early years were he was on the shuttle between Cincinnati and Louisville, when he would blowup and give up 5 or 6 runs in 3 innings or so in Cincy and be sent back down back down to Louisville, only to repeat the process over and over until he finally stuck in the bigs than ya he wasn’t close. But that is not what the Reds were paying for, they weren’t paying for a long history of past performance, they were looking toward his prime years. Bailey and the Reds agreed to the big contract in Feb of 14 and the injures started in 14 and didn’t let up until this year 2018. It has been an incredibly bad run of luck with all of his injuries.

    • Tom

      I think everyone generally agreed at the time it was a slight to fairly significant over payment. All the other circumstances aside. IMO you never give a big contract to a pitcher with injury history and Homer certainly had that. Cueto and Latos would have also been disqualified due to injury.

      Had the Reds signed a very healthy CJ Wilson before 2012 instead of selling enormous prospect wealth, they could have afforded to trade 1 or 2 of Bailey or Cueto in 2013 or 2014 all while reaping better prospects and retaining better homegrown players.

      Instead of spending real dollars today, they spent tomorrow’s more valuable prospect dollars. I hope they realize that didn’t work. Keep the prospect wealth to the point of absurdity. Use the savings and depth of system to actually buy a healthy FA pitcher without any injury history. Not available every year though. And it would break the conventional mold that Cincy can’t sign FA pitchers. Well, that seems like a good mold to break.

      Reply
  4. Wes

    I agree on big sal but he’s earned this spot in roatation even if it’s by default. He seemed to improve a lot at end of season last year and if he can carry an era around 4 and go 5/6 innings he can be the 5th starter long term. He’s a more likely candidate long term than bailey or Harvey.

    There’s a financial aspect that could lead to another year of control w mahle and it’s not like reds are contending. If he’s not odd man out it’s poor management. Can’t justify loosing a year of control for this season.

    Reply
  5. David

    After a torrid start to the 2018 season, Montrell Marshall has fallen on hard times. Including his first at-bat today (Tuesday), Marshall is now 0 for his last 30. Ouch!

    Reply
  6. redleggingfordayz

    Is anyone else super excited to imagine a 2020 outfield with Trammell (LF,CF), Siri (all OF), Fairchild (all OF), and TJ Friedl (all OF). So much defensive versatility (and top notch defensive skills), AND they are all solid hitters + base-runners. Could be a really fun team to watch.

    1. Trammell (LF)
    2. Senzel (2B)
    3. Votto (1B)
    4. Suarez (3B)
    5. Siri (CF)
    6. Fairchild (RF)
    7. Barnhart\Stephenson (C)
    8. SS acquisition ???
    9. Pitcher

    One heck of an OBP + defensive team right there (obviously pending the SS). They could really get pitch counts high early in games and just wear down opposing teams while letting almost nothing into the gaps at GABP.

    Reply
    • Stock

      I would rather have Winker than Fairchild. Not sure Fairchild will be anything more than a 4th or 5th OF.

      Don’t you have to put Peraza at SS?

      Scooter Gennett is on pace for a war of 3.5 – 4.0 this summer. I think he needs to be on here somewhere.

      Reply
      • redleggingfordayz

        Personally I think Winker will be the odd man out just because he is limited defensively, but I can see an argument for either player. Peraza is not my long term answer at this point, he looks lost at the plate with almost 0 pitch recognition skills. Though I will say his defense has passed the eye test over the last few weeks so maybe he is finally settling in there. If Scooter actually puts up a 3.5 – 4.0 WAR season I will eat my shorts at the end of this season. His production thus far has been buoyed by a pretty unsustainable .362 BABIP. While I like that he is striking out less so far this year, he is also walking a bit less and his defense is pretty atrocious at 2B. Why would you want to pay his huge arbitration #’s (due to his HR and RBI’s over the last 2 years) when he will just be a super sub behind Senzel and Suarez? The Reds have plenty of other prospects that will be ready to fill that role in 2020 (Long, Blandino, Dixon) and honestly I like all of them more than Scooter especially at league minimum :).

      • stock

        Redlegs,

        If you bring Scooter’s BABIP back to his career BABIP he is still hitting .300. Thing is he is hitting the ball hard much more frequently now so that should tend to increase his BABIP. But this adjustment is minor compared to his defensive adjustment we should see. Based upon career norms he is doing much worse this year than any other year. This should even out over time too (at least I hope so).

      • redleggingfordayz

        Even if he does keep up the AVG above .300 and OBP above .330 (which I am extremely doubtful of), he is still really bad on the defensive side of the ball and why would you pay a 28 year old player >8 Million a year to only get like 300 AB’s? You could easily pay a younger player league min and have Senzel start his major league career (who I think is a pretty obviously a better player). I have loved Scooter while he has been here, but he isn’t going to be part of the next contending Reds team and the FO should sell while his value is high. Let us not make the same mistakes we did with Frazier and Cozart please :)!

  7. AirborneJayJay

    Fangraphs has a new mock draft out today and they still have the Red on UF’s Brady Singer.
    One guy who is quietly rising and I have been keeping an eye on as a sleeper pick at #5 is a LH pitcher. Not McClanahan or Rollison. If the Reds aren’t enamored with Singer and McClanahan and want to go the college route check out Stetson LH SP Logan Gilbert. He misses bats. In 13 starts he is 9-1, 2.70 ERA, 93.0 IP, 54 H, 30 R, 27 ER, 20 BB, 134 K. He had 13 K last week in is start.
    Fangraphs has mocked him at #17 to LAA in their latest mock. He is quietly rising. With 3 weeks to go he might be able to rise higher. However, this Fangraphs mock is a little weird though. College guys all in the first 6 picks. I just don’t see that happening.
    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-2-0/

    Reply
  8. AirborneJayJay

    Fangraphs has a new mock draft out today and they still have the Red on UF’s Brady Singer.
    One guy who is quietly rising and I have been keeping an eye on as a sleeper pick at #5 is a LH pitcher. Not McClanahan or Rollison. If the Reds aren’t enamored with Singer and McClanahan and want to go the college route check out Stetson LH SP Logan Gilbert. He misses bats. In 13 starts he is 9-1, 2.70 ERA, 93.0 IP, 54 H, 30 R, 27 ER, 20 BB, 134 K. He had 13 K last week in his start.
    Fangraphs has mocked him at #17 to LAA in their latest mock. He is quietly rising. With 3 weeks to go he might be able to rise higher. However, this Fangraphs mock is a little weird though. College guys all in the first 6 picks. I just don’t see that happening.
    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-2-0/

    Reply
      • AirborneJayJay

        Yes he is. Thanks for the correction. I hit the wrong key. He is listed at 6’6″ a 225. That is nice. That Fangraphs article mentions his name up around #10 thru #14 also. He could rise in the next 3 weeks.

      • redleggingfordayz

        Yeah his delivery is like a slingshot, he definitely reminds me of Harang from the body structure standpoint. Looks like solid stuff, but I think the Reds are pretty locked in on Singer at this point, which personally I am very okay with. Stockpile as many high quality arms as you can.

  9. Joe

    We signed homer to 106 million contract.i think we would have had to start in the 150 millions jus to get cueto’s attention back then.

    Reply
    • Hanawi

      Cueto was coming off an injury. He actually may have been able to be had for cheaper, since it would have been a far riskier signing at the time. I think that’s actually where the Reds failed. Could have ended up with Cueto at a discount.

      Reply
    • Stock

      His contract he signed with SF was 130. He gave the Reds a discount once. Why assume not a second time.

      Reply
  10. Hanawi

    Doug, now that Sugilio is back, any chance the Reds promote someone to relieve the outfield jam at Dayton. Beltre, Gordon, Sugilio, and Fairchild all need playing time. Beltre or Fairchild seem like they could be moved up.

    Reply
    • MK

      Crook just promoted creating a Crook, Friedl, Siri, Trammel Daytona quartet. No room there. Organization pretty flush with outfielders through out. That is a reason they felt comfortable releasing Goeddel.
      They still have Satchel McElroy and Ike White not assigned anywhere.

      Reply
  11. MK

    Luis Gonzalez is quietly moving to the top of the minor league depth chart at shortstop. Might be time to flip flop Gonzalez and Trahan.

    Doug the Gonzalez link above is incorrect.

    Reply
  12. Stock

    Here is the chart above without the indention because of reply. It may fit.

    Non Arb Avg/ Career 3 Yr Car Avg Sal/ Avg Sal/
    Pitcher Sign Yrs Amt Yrs Amt Year War War War Career War 3 year War
    Porcello 2015 4 82.5 4 82.5 20.63 22.4 7.4 15.4 1.34 2.79
    Homer 2013 6 105 4 86 21.5 13.8 8.3 13 1.65 2.59
    Hughes 2015 3 24 3 24 8 18 3.3 9.7 0.82 2.42
    Lester 2014 6 155 6 155 25.83 41.6 11.1 29.6 0.87 2.33
    Sale 2012 7 58.5 3 37.5 12.5 35.4 6.5 6.5 1.92 1.92
    Scherzer 2014 7 210 7 210 30 42.7 15.7 25.7 1.17 1.91
    Hamels 2012 6 144 6 144 24 45.2 13 28.1 0.85 1.85
    Price 2015 7 217 7 217 31 37.6 16.8 31.9 0.97 1.85
    Zimmerm 2015 5 110 5 110 22 22.2 12 20.4 1.08 1.83
    Greinke 2012 6 147 6 147 24.5 52.5 13.6 32.3 0.76 1.8
    Kershaw 2013 7 215 6 211 35.17 57.6 20.1 30.7 1.15 1.75
    Lohse 2012 3 33 3 33 11 26.4 6.6 22.2 0.5 1.67
    Gio Gon 2011 7 66 3 36 12 27.3 7.2 6.5 1.85 1.67
    Shields 2014 4 75 4 75 18.75 30.7 11.4 30.8 0.61 1.64
    Sanchez 2012 5 88 5 88 17.6 24.2 10.8 13.6 1.29 1.63
    Cain 2013 5 127.5 5 127.5 25.5 29.8 16.1 28.4 0.9 1.58
    Garza 2013 4 50 4 50 12.5 23.2 7.9 17.5 0.71 1.58
    Felix 2012 7 175 7 175 25 51.3 16.8 35.4 0.71 1.49
    Buehrle 2012 4 58 4 58 14.5 51.9 10.1 43 0.34 1.44
    Sabathia 2011 5 122 5 122 24.4 64.9 17.4 52.2 0.47 1.4
    Justin V 2012 7 170 7 170 24.29 55.4 19.5 37.5 0.65 1.25
    Madison 2012 7 59 3 35.5 11.83 29.4 9.7 9.7 1.22 1.22
    Cliff Lee 2010 5 120 5 120 24 47.3 20 28.1 0.85 1.2
    Wainwri 2013 5 97.5 5 97.5 19.5 39.8 16.3 29.5 0.66 1.2
    Kluber 2014 5 38.5 3 37 12.33 26.4 10.8 10.8 1.14 1.14
    Halladay 2011 3 60 3 60 20 65.2 19.9 55 0.36 1.01
    Quintana 2014 5 21 3 30 10 10.2 10.2 10.2 0.98 0.98

    Reply
  13. Bubba Woo

    Scooter to Seattle? That might be an opportunity to sell high with Seattle now having an unexpected need…

    Reply
      • redleggingfordayz

        I would be “okay” with Sam Carlson or Kyle Lewis, both are very high ceiling type guys and that should really be all the Reds are after at this point. Anything else and I would be a bit disappointed. Pair either of those guys with Matt Festa or Wyatt Mills and I would be pretty happy to trade away Scooter’s salary.

  14. Cguy

    I see little reason to move Sal out of the rotation this month. Maybe if DeSclafani is ready in a few weeks & Harvey hasn’t pitched himself into the bullpen (or oblivion) then Romano would be best served by a demotion. I’d like to see the Reds gain an extra year of control with Mahle, but you can’t demote the kid if he’s healthy & doing the job.

    Reply

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