Cincinnati Reds Day Two Draft thoughts Doug Gray June 5, 2018 13 Comments Day one of the draft is now behind us. The Cincinnati Reds selected three players: Florida infielder Jonathan India, Florida high school pitcher Lyon Richardson, and Le Moyne College pitcher Josiah Gray. You can read about them, watch video, look at stats, and join in the conversation on each guy here. Day two begins at 1pm and you can follow along on MLB.com. Rounds 3-10 will go down today and there will be a separate post for information on all of those selections once the draft begins. Baseball America has their list up for the best available players remaining here. While there’s nothing out there yet as far as the Cincinnati Reds go in terms of bonuses to the latter two picks yesterday, Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs believes that the Reds are “right about slot” when it comes to what they will have spent to sign their day 1 picks. My best guess about where each pool is: Slightly under relative to slot (9) ATL, BAL, CHC, HOU, NYM, NYY, PHI, PIT, SD Right about at slot (15) CHW, CIN, CLE, COL, DET, KC, LA, MIL, MIN, OAK, SF, SEA, STL, TEX, TOR Slightly over relative to slot (6) ARZ, BOS, LAA, MIA, TB, WSH — Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) June 5, 2018 Kiley McDaniel is a former front office employee with the Atlanta Braves, and a former scout for multiple organizations. He’s probably tuned in well on what these guys are going to cost. Also, since I’ve seen it in the comments here, on twitter, on facebook, and on message boards (I’m everywhere you guys!), here’s my yearly reminder: Just because Baseball America or Fangraphs has a player ranked XYZ does not mean that if a player is drafted higher than that that it’s an over draft. The variance of opinion on players is incredibly wide. A player that is ranked 75th on those lists probably has a range among organizations of something like 30th all the way up to something like 200th. Don’t take the rankings nearly as seriously as the scouting report that’s next to that number. That information is what’s important to look at. Links on the players selected by the Reds on day one Jonathan India C. Trent Rosecrans/The Athletic on Jonathan India Bobby Nightengale/Cincinnati Enquirer on Jonathan India Mark Sheldon/Reds.com on Jonathan India Dick Williams with Lance McAlister from last night on Jonathan India Lyon Richardson The local paper had an article up yesterday, before the draft, on Lyon Richardson with some good information on him. His stats from the season include a 7-0 record, a 0.58 ERA in 48.0 innings with 90 strikeouts and just 16 hits allowed. The same paper also has an article up from after he was drafted with some quotes from Richardson on the night and how the Reds had been at most of his games this spring. Josiah “Jo Jo” Gray JJ Cooper of Baseball America saw Gray early this season and wrote a nice piece on him. It’s a tad outdated at this point, but it’s got plenty of good background information on how he got to the Reds. Wayne Cavadi, who writes at both NCAA.com and MinorLeagueBall.com sat down and talked with Josiah Gray back in April. There’s a lot of good stuff here, too. He has confirmed that he will be signing with the Cincinnati Reds. Quick Thoughts on Day One I’ve stated time and again that I believe this draft isn’t on par with most drafts. There’s some depth to be had for rounds 2-5, but at the top it wasn’t as strong as a normal draft. That hasn’t changed in the 18 hours since I last stated that. In a draft like that, I’m all aboard the “go for the upside” guys. And I think that’s exactly what the Reds did on Monday. Jonathan India’s got a chance to be a middle infielder with 20-25 home runs and a well rounded game. The two pitchers that were selected are both arm-strength guys with good breaking balls who are very athletic. Both guys also have arms with less mileage on them, which in theory at least, is a good thing. Quick Thoughts heading into Day Two It’s tough to know what the plan could be for day two without knowing how much money the team believes that they have to spend. Chris Buckley has noted in the past week that the draft is deep in high school pitching, so don’t be surprised if they pick up another high school arm or three on day two. For day two, teams still aren’t usually drafting for “need” on the minor league side of things. What we should expect, though, is to see several senior signs in rounds 7-10 in order to save some money on signing bonuses and possibly use that money elsewhere in the draft. 13 Responses Brent June 5, 2018 Also looks like Richardson will sign based on the article you linked Stock June 5, 2018 I was hoping for Kumer Rocker. AirborneJayJay June 5, 2018 The Siani kid that is committed to UVA would be a great catch in round 3. He is a CF and pitches a little bit too. Stock June 5, 2018 Rocker is there. Will they bite The Duke June 5, 2018 Probably not considering they wouldn’t have enough pool room and would lose the pool money from that draft slot. Rocker might get drafted in round 11 if someone wants to take a shot, but it sounds like he’s going to college. Greenfield Red June 5, 2018 I know the number next to player means little, but do the Reds have to consistently draft players rated significantly below their draft slot? I know several of these guys in the 20 to 200 range will go to college which would inflate the number somewhat. Just looks kind of strange. Maybe a cost saving ploy. Cguy June 5, 2018 1st rounder India (3 spots above rank), 2nd rounder Richardson (20 spots higher than rank), CB pick Gray (30 spots above his rank), & Spillane (drafted 48 spots above his ranking). I’m afraid to look at the Reds 4th round pick. Cguy June 5, 2018 Siani is 69 slots lower than his ranking, if they get him signed maybe the last three picks were worth it. The Duke June 5, 2018 Realize these ranks mean absolutely nothing. It’s what the public expects, so these websites give it to them. Outside of the top 15-20, there really isn’t much difference. Dbfromnva June 5, 2018 I disagee that they mean nothing. They have to be taken with a grain of salt like college basketball recruiting rankings where players who play different positions from all over the country are compared but I have found watching the Reds draft for over 30 years when they take someone signicantly lower in the ratings good results seldom follow. earmbrister June 5, 2018 CGuy & DB – Consider the Cubs draft vs the Reds. According to the MLB rankings (everyone’s got an opinion, and …) the Cubs took in RD 1-24 the 52 ranked player. 2-62, the 145th ranked player. 2C-77, unranked. 2C-78, the 175th. 3-98, unranked. 4-128, unranked. Per the same rankings, the Reds took in RD 1-5 the 8th ranked player. 2-47, the 67th ranked player. CCB-72, 102. 3-82, 130. 4-109, 40th. So, either the Cubs FO is smoking crack by taking unranked players for half of their first 6 selections, OR, like The Duke said, these rankings are fairly meaningless. Don’t know what Mike Trout’s pre-draft ranking was, but in the end he was taken with the 25th pick in round 1. Or we could go with Mike Piazza in the 66th round. The MLB draft is a crapshoot. MikeinSoCal June 6, 2018 Spillane and Siani peaked my interest. Spillane certainly has a big swing and a major follow through. His size and swing are impressive. Hopefully there’s enough contact in that swing to not tinker with it too much, if at all. CP June 6, 2018 I’m am intrigued by Spillane as well. A polished college guy like him could move quicker than a HS guy for sure. It will be interesting to see if his plate approach will work in the professional ranks or if there will be needed adjustments. That K% is probably what made him a 3rd round guy instead of being taken higher… Siani has me hopeful too. Much more raw offensively, but his skill set defensively and on the bases will provide him a lot more leash than most to develop. Even if he only becomes a defense first, speedy 4th OF at the MLB level, that would be a win!