Taylor Trammell, one of the Cincinnati Reds top prospects, hasn’t played since June 3rd. In that game he left after two at-bats. He’s currently said to be day-to-day while dealing with something in his back. It’s nothing serious, but enough to not push it. Trammell was named to the All-Star team a week ago in the Florida State League. The outfielder has hit .304/.412/.476 on the season with 30 walks and 40 strikeouts in 199 total plate appearances. That first half performance had him jump up in the Baseball America Top 100 Prospect Rankings. When the list was updated on June 1st he was inside the Top 30, ranking 28th overall.

Nick Senzel is heating up

It was a tough month of May for Nick Senzel. Not so much because of anything that happened on the baseball field, but for what kept him off of it. After dealing with a bout of vertigo for nearly four weeks, he returned to Triple-A Louisville on May 29th. Between the 29th and 30th he went 0-7, though he was hitting the ball well in both games. In the seven games since he’s gone 8-26 (.308) with four doubles and five walks. You can see a few of his doubles in that span below.

Bruce Yari is swinging a hot bat

The other day I joked that Bruce Yari should be known for his speed after he had two different infield hits, both driving in a run. Yari is a first baseman, who – no offense, Bruce – is not a fast runner. That didn’t stop manager Ricky Gutierrez from placing him in the leadoff spot on Thursday night, and it paid off immediately. He went 3-4, drew a walk, doubled, and had a walk-off hit.

With roughly eleventy-billion rainouts in a row for Daytona, Bruce Yari didn’t play for the final week of May. He’s been making up for lost time in the week since. Over six games played, all in June, he’s hit .556/.680/.889. He’s walked six times with four strikeouts. That’s also come with three doubles and a home run. That’s an OPS of 1.569 for those who didn’t want to do the addition in their head.

The 2018 Draft Tracker is now up and running

With the draft now behind us, we can now look forward to who is going to sign, who has signed, how much they signed for, and how much is left over for others to sign for. All of that information can be found at the 2018 Cincinnati Reds Draft Tracker. You can access that in the navigation bar on a computer/tablet, or on mobile by clicking the menu button (those three lines at the top left of the site – or on some phones you can just swipe right to pull up the menu).

79 Responses

  1. kevinz

    Thanks for the Trammell update Doug and even if is small no need to push a back injury that is for sure.
    Glad see Senzel getting some luck lately was hitting ball well before that luck so was not worried.

    Reply
  2. Numbers

    Who should we be most excited about signing from 11-40? Provided they sign of course.

    Reply
    • Kap

      Michael Byrne is my guy, if he signs. I can see the Reds trying him at starter based on his good control. Only problem is that he is a junior for the Gators and may not sign

      Reply
      • Colorado Red

        He probably will sign.
        Unless he goes top 10 year, he will get much less.

      • MK

        Just hope they don’t mess him up like other college closers they tried to turn into starters. Looking forward to seeing him again this weekend in the NCAA Regionals. As they say in Gatorland “Feel the Byrne”

    • The Duke

      I’m pretty intrigued by Brian Rey. Hit well in JC, his walk rate significantly increased in his 2nd year while lowering his K rate, and according to Doug’s draft tracker, he’s already reached an agreement. Just 20 years old this entire season, I think we could see him in Dayton next year for his age 21 year.

      Reply
    • Stock

      I love Noah Davis. Throwing in the upper 90’s last fall before TJ surgery. Could have been a 1st or 2nd round pick if not for the injury.

      I like Byrne too. Tough sign because if he stays he could start next season for the Gators and his market value could soar. It could plummet also though. As Kap said, I love his control.

      Reply
  3. SultanofSwaff

    Do we have any foot speed information on Senzel? The dude is as fast and more athletic than Peraza. If I’m in charge my first priorities are:

    1. Installing Nick at SS.
    2. Trade Iglesias for a can’t miss starting pitcher.
    3. Dump Duvall and Billy for a relief pitching prospect.
    4. Try Scooter in LF for a few weeks. If all works out, approach him about an extension. If nothing can be worked out, explore a trade.

    Reply
    • CP

      I loved it when the Reds were giving Senzel a shot at SS, but they have shown no faith in him at SS since the year began. Simple fact is they are going to have to trade for a SS or CF if they are going to have an upgrade at either spot in short order.

      They need a Shin Soo Choo type trade. A legit bat that can fill a position of weakness. Granted he didn’t play very good defense in CF, but man he made the Reds something else once he was added.

      Reply
      • RedsinWashst

        Yea, for 1 year, that won’t cut it for this reds team.

    • Stock

      Scooter should have been approached about an extension last winter. I would think they can still afford to extend him and keep him on the roster for the next 7 years.

      He is not nearly the defensive liability this site makes him out to be and in fact his defense the last month has been well above average. Leave him alone and keep him at 2B.

      Reply
      • AC

        Sign him so we can start complaining about how he makes too much money! I’m getting tired of complaining about Votto.

  4. The Duke

    For fun tried putting together a projected 25 man roster for 2021:

    1. Taylor Trammell, LF
    2. Nick Senzel, RF
    3. Joey Votto, 1B
    4. Eugenio Suarez, 3B
    5. Jonathan India, 2B
    6. Stuart Fairchild, CF
    7. Tucker Barnhart, C
    8. Jose Peraza, SS

    BN: Tyler Stephenson, C
    BN: Alex Blandino, Inf
    BN: Jesse Winker, OF/1B
    BN: TJ Friedl, OF
    BN: Shed Long, Inf

    1. Luis Castillo
    2. Tyler Mahle
    3. Hunter Greene
    4. Tony Santillan
    5. Robert Stephenson

    LR: Jesus Reyes
    MR: Sal Romano
    MR: Vlad Gutierrez
    MR: Brandon Finnegan
    MR: Jimmy Herget
    SU: Amir Garrett
    CL: Raisel Iglesias

    Didn’t project any future draft picks or trades, but based off of this there are three things that I think need to happen before 2021.

    1. We need to spend some money and sign a middle of the rotation starting pitcher. Someone you can trust to pitch in the playoffs. Trusting solely on home grown pitchers is a real big crap shoot, and so far we mostly seen the crap part.

    2. We need to trade for our next starting SS. Probaby Raisel Iglesias as the piece that brings it back. There is no one in our system I am confident that has the ability and will get the PT there to be ready by 2021, so it’s still Jose Peraza on this projection. Raisel Iglesias bringing back a top SS prospect that could be ready by 2021 is a a very needed step.

    3. We will likely need to do what we did this offseason and find 1 or 2 value guys for the bullpen like Hughes and Hernandez have been. Especially if we trade Iglesias, at which point I think we move to Garrett as the closer.

    Reply
    • CP

      Iglesias to Rockies for Brendan Rodgers plus a couple pieces. Iglesias is great, but it is so much harder to find/replace a great SS than it is a closer. Anyone with a better feel for the Rockies minor leagues have a thought on what kind of package would be worth it?

      Reply
      • kevinz

        I am probably wrong but I dont think Rockies would Trade Rodgers with Story as the only player blocking Rodgers.

        Trade iggy to rockies for :
        1b-3d Colton Welker: eventual Votto replacement
        P Peter Lambert has: a nice FB with downward movement
        SS-2b Garrett Hampson : no power but speedy GG type at 2b could play CF.
        OF Sam Hilliard : a tooled up type player with speed plus some Raw Power

      • BromleyJake

        Doug seemed to think Rasiel for Rodgers would work. If that’s the case then Rasiel should be traded as soon as it is confirmed he is healthy. A future shortstop who is valuable on defense and at the plate is a rarity for this organization. The Reds seem hellbent on giving Peraza every chance to become a competent big-league shortstop. We constantly hear about his “improved defense” and how he’s “coming around at the plate,” and “don’t forget he’s only 22.” Fundamentally, he is a guy who is impatient at the plate, has minimal power, and in his best stretch is merely average defensively at shortstop. Yet he appears to have just been handed the position for the foreseeable future. If you put up the slash line of 274/310/348/658(BA,OBP,SLG,OPS) and hit 10 homeruns in 283 games(wtf), you better be Cozart-esque defensively. It’s also not as if he could be the “face” of the organization. He doesn’t have the personality of a Phillips, Suarez or even Gennett. Why settle for this guy?

      • Colorado Red

        Rockies are in love in Rodgers. He is the next coming.
        I just do not see them trading for him.
        Like the Reds, the Rox love the young guys, but won’t let them play.

      • wes

        They also currently have 7 closers on their roster including their ace Gray. They have the deepest pen in all of MLB. To get rodgers- fill a need- like starting pitching. Which reds lack, but I think Mahle is a good fit in CO. Mahle and Scooter may get it done. But is it worth it? I say yes

      • kevinz

        Not really sure mahle and his high FB style a good fit in CO could be wrong on that.
        When rockies came into Reds Series it was said Rockies starters keeping them in games but there BP lately killing them.

      • wes

        side effect of playing in CO; your going to get rocked from time to time. I like Mahle in CO because he’s good at getting outs even when he doesn’t get a lot of K’s. That goes a long way in CO imo. And I think he’s going to get better throughout this season and the near future. Plus he’s cheap and controllable. That’s why I like him if I’m Colorado.

    • SteveLV

      Did the same thing a couple of days before the draft. Didn’t have India, so had Senzel at 2nd, Schebler in right, Trammell in center and Winker in left. Didn’t consider Fairchild, but should have. Didn’t think Greene would be there opening day, so had Garrett starting (which was more hope than projection). Had Reed instead of Reyes and Rainey replacing Garrett.
      Regardless, think Reds FO job is to improve on that lineup for that year. Steps you outlined seem like the right ones.

      Reply
    • Jonathan

      Giving up on Jesse Winker or just believe the Taylor Trammell & Stuart Fairchild, are more valuable?

      India as a SS and Long as 2B??

      Reply
      • Bromleyjake

        Winker at his best looks like a below average defender, who doesnt run well, hits 5 homeruns a season and gets on base around .370. The question is whether his OBP can justify a corner outfielder who can’t steal bases, hit homeruns or play good defense. I’m not saying “Give up on him,” but I don’t see why the Reds would ever be married to him when they may very well have more complete players down the pipeline.

      • Doug Gray

        Jesse Winker hit more than 5 home runs last season in less than a quarter of a season. So “at his best” is very incorrect.

      • The Duke

        I’m fully on board giving India a shot at SS, but until proven otherwise the best bet is to remain skeptical.

        Not giving up on Jesse Winker, but his defense is bad and he hasn’t proven himself yet. If he isn’t hitting .300 and OBP’ing .370+, his value craters in a hurry. The power loss is disheartening too. I thought at the end of last year he had figured something out, but that power surge has disappeared.

        A defensive outfield of Trammell/Fairchild/Senzel would be one of the better ones in the majors.

      • BromleyJake

        Duke-
        I’m perplexed as to why Fairchild isn’t being moved faster through the system when you consider his college experience, upside and performance. Any insight as to what he needs to work on to advance as I’ve never watched him play? Strikeouts? He also doesn’t seem to be talked about as glowingly as some other guys even though a guy who can play centerfield and hit for average and power hasn’t been part of a Reds lineup for a long time.

      • Doug Gray

        It’s probably pretty simple: promoting him means promoting other guys, too. Fairchild goes up and you’ve got to also promote at least one of Siri, Trammell, or Friedl. Not that it’s an issue to do so, but if you want to develop guys in center….. There will be movement after the all-star game. Let’s see who gets moved up then.

      • kevinz

        Here lately seems like Winker trying to Lift the ball more
        at first kept just popping it up but then hit a double plus a homer since then.

    • Tom

      I agree with you about the need for a better shortstop. I would want one that was a team leader and better at defense as much As one who is better on offense.

      Also sort of apparently missing from your 2021 scenario is a 35+ homerun bat.

      As for the pitching it has been astonishing how terrible it has been. Some of it was by design but when you look at what is available now and next year from within the organization it raises the eyebrows.

      This staff Has no veteran leadership. No Harang, Arroyo, or even Strailey or Feldman. At least get that. Really, they need Keuchel and Gio in free agency next year. Move the needle.

      In general, with 2021 S the target, slow walk these prospects. Bring them up ready to contribute at 24 or 25 years old.

      Oh and trade knuckleheads like Finnegan.

      Reply
    • kevinz

      I will the crazy Route things never seem to go the way we think they will so go.

      think the 2021 OF will be Trammell in LF, Siani in CF will show not Raw like Trammell Beltre in RF the least thought of out of Fairchild Siri trammell. Plus he controls the Zone way better than Siri.

      Reply
      • The Duke

        Siani is a just drafted HS player, if we see him before 2023 he will have moved very fast. Even in 2023 he’d only be he’d still only be 23, which is younger than when most debut in MLB.

        Beltre turns 23 in less than a month and is still in Low A, I wouldn’t be writing him into the big league lineup anytime soon.

      • kevinz

        Meant to say Siani will show he is not as Raw as People think he is, just like Trammell showed he was not as Raw as what everyone said he was.

      • kevinz

        True on Siani duke but if Performs like Trammell has could be a late call up in 21. Plus he little older than trammell when he was drafted so if not raw he could move faster than expected.

        Beltre is older as I said but he is only a year older than fairchild who you put as our future CF so did not see much a difference there thanks duke but i did put crazy route lol

      • Doug Gray

        Trammell and Siana aren’t too much alike, though. Everyone figured Trammell would fill out a little bit and had some pop in his bat. That’s not Siani. Siani is a guy who can play defense and hit some singles and doubles.

      • kevinz

        never compared them as players Doug just there situations
        plus doubles and singles would be just fine for a true CF if Siani hits enough.
        You never know though either who knew Suarez would fill out like has? who thought Scooter would hit more than just singles with some doubles? who thought Votto would be much better than Bruce? See you just never do know so never assume.

      • Doug Gray

        You don’t push guys hard through the minors who are hitting singles and doubles. You progress them slower. That’s why the situations are quite different.

        And a lot of people thought Suarez would fill out like he has.

        And if you go with the “never assume” thing, I might as well just shut the site down. We are making educated guesses here. The general belief is that Siani isn’t going to fill out and add much power. Until we start seeing otherwise, that’s what the book is going to be on him.

      • kevinz

        Oh ok i get you Doug that makes more sense so if Siani surprises with more pop he could get pushed faster then. I will go out on a limb and say Siani will surprise then will show has sneaky Pop

    • DanD

      Iggy to Washington for Kieboom and ? Any suggestions for a trade the Nationals?

      Reply
      • The Duke

        I don’t think a deal gets done with the Nats for Iglesias unless they traded Robles, which they don’t seem to be willing to do. If we force a deal for quantity than I’d say Kieboom, Luis Garcia, Daniel Johnson, Erick Fedde and Wil Crowe.

      • Kap

        Iggy to Atlanta for Ian Anderson, Touki Toussaint, and a lower level is the deal that I like

    • Stock

      I guess I am on a Scooter rant again today. No way he is not in my 2021 lineup. He is the best player on the Reds thus far this year.

      1. Siri (CF)
      2. Trammell (LF)
      3. Votto (1B)
      4. Gennett (2B)
      5. India (SS)
      6. Suarez (3B)
      7. Senzel (RF)
      8. Barnhart/Stephenson

      Bench:
      Blandino
      Winker
      Friedl
      Peraza

      SP:

      Mahle
      Castillo
      Santillan
      Amir Garrett
      Disco/Greene

      RP:
      Iglesias
      Finnegan and 5 of:
      Jesus Reyes
      Jose Lopez
      Ryan Hendrix
      Zach Weiss
      Tanner Rainey
      Guitterez
      Romano
      Stephenson

      Reply
      • Colorado Red

        would need to extend him now for that to happen.
        If he keeps hitting like this, he will be too costly.

      • Michael Smith

        Gennett may be the best red at the moment by a hair but he will be on the wrong side of 30 in 2021 and will not be the best red at that time.

      • The Duke

        Until he is, he’s not under contract with the Reds in 2021. I didn’t have Disco there either because he isn’t under team control through 2021

      • Kindell

        Suarez has been the best Reds player so far this year IMO. He has produced more Runs than Scooter in 50 less PA appearances and has been much betteer on defense.

      • SteveLV

        I used the same criteria Duke did – only those under team control, so no Gennett or Disco. By 21 think Reds have 2nd and CF covered internally, but lack starting pitching and SS. I think Gennett’s extra $10 million a year is $10 million they won’t use to solve those problems.
        Agree we would be better with him for the next couple of years, but similar to my thoughts on trading for Yelich early this year, don’t think it makes sense to expend much to simply be less bad for the next year or two.

  5. SultanofSwaff

    Seriously, you have to go all the way down to the lower minors to maybe see a batter have an at-bat as bad as Billy Hamilton’s in the 9th yesterday. Anyone venture a guess as to what Billy’s slash line would be in A+ if he played every day?

    Siri/Trammel are both good defenders in CF. Just messing around, but does anyone doubt they wouldn’t be an upgrade to Billy Hamilton all things considered RIGHT NOW? Like with Peraza, I don’t understand the organization’s easy acceptance of performance this substandard.

    Reply
    • Bromleyjake

      The most frustrating thing about the combination of Hamilton and Peraza is that their best assets don’t come close to compensating for their downfalls. We often hear of how many runs Hamilton saves with his speed in the field. We heard earlier in the season about how he scores runs with speed when he does get on, as if that justifies a horrid OBP. What about power? The guy has hit 19 homers in 600 games. What about the On-base question? A career .297 OBP. For all the talk of how he “stretches singles into doubles,” and so on, he has 120 total XBH in 2400 PA for his career. How much does defense really matter. I’m pretty sure the Cubs have put I. Happ in CF before. A player in this day either needs to get on base at an efficient rate or hit for power to be considered for a spot. Billy gets away with being awful in both categories. And then there’s Peraza………………

      Reply
      • hunt4redsoct

        The failure of the Rockies catcher to even attempt to block the game tying wild pitch really makes you appreciate Tucker.

    • The Duke

      I think Siri would be completely overmatched if he was in the bigs. 40+% K rate and a virtually non-existent walk rate. He’d run into one every now and then and show some power, but he’d hit well under .200 imo.

      Reply
  6. Pokey Reese's Red Hot Bat

    Doug

    On the draft tracker could you add a column showing if they were in their final year of college, HS etc?

    Excellent work on the draft, much appreciated.

    Reply
    • kevinz

      Good wanna see Beltre vs better players plus see how performs compared to Siri at the same level love both there tools

      Reply
      • MK

        Kevin they played whole year together last year.

      • kevinz

        True they did but not in A + like to see how each does at a higher level.

  7. Patrick

    It amazes me that Schebler gets no respect from Reds fans reminds me of Paul Oneil he will only be appreciated once he leaves and blows up.
    he hit 30 HRs last year, power check
    Is in top 10% in speed, speed check
    With normal babip this year hitting .277 with .348 obp. He walks, gets HBP a lot and does not strike out a ton (18% this year) plate discipline hit tool solid check
    Can play all OF positions , slight above average RF. Defense check
    Solid Arm 3.6 arm rating according to UZR Arm check.
    He does everything that you want at least average or better.

    Reply
    • Doug Gray

      He’s not going to have a normal BABIP, though, because of his batted ball profile.

      He’s a solid every day guy, for sure. To this point, though, he’s not more than that.

      Reply
      • kevinz

        So he basically a cheaper Bruce that hits LHP better i will take that lol

      • Hoosierbadger

        I’ve always liked Schebler. I think he is underestimated. His numbers last year were artificially low due to injury. He gets on base, has pop in his bat and some speed on the base paths. He’s no HOF candidate, for sure, but I see a productive, above average starter.

      • Doug Gray

        He’s had to basically double his WAR from last season to be considered above-average as a starter. Not impossible, but I’m not entirely sure it’s likely either. He’s an every day guy. Nothing wrong with that.

    • Norwood Nate

      Well when I did my future projection roster (for 2nd half 2020) the other day I included Schebler as part of a solid core of contributors. I don’t know if he’ll start, platoon, or be a nice lefty bench bat, a lot will depend on the development of other players who have more upside. But between him, Siri, Trammell, Winker, and the possibility of one of India/Senzel moving to the OF I think we’ll be able to put together a really nice outfield by then.

      Reply
  8. kevinz

    I guess we will see Scheb just starting his prime.
    Bruce may have a better peak but they the same in a sense both solid everyday guys nothing more than that.
    I think there more in scheb than has shown so far has not had full seasons in MLB yet from injury like see numbers but up with around 500 or so AB’s

    Reply
    • Doug Gray

      Jay Bruce had multiple seasons where he was far better than a solid everyday guy. Scott Schebler, last year, in his best season, posted a 1.2 fWAR. Jay Bruce has posted four seasons with at least DOUBLE that value, and one season that was 4 times as valuable as that.

      Reply
      • kevinz

        Last year was schebs first full season and still did not have 500 abs either and still hit 30 hr
        Bruce had a larger sample size if healthy schebs can out perform bruce 27 28 29 year old seasons for cheaper than Bruce cost at the same age.

      • Doug Gray

        Schebler is in his late 20’s and has never had a full season in the Majors. That tells us a lot. He’s cheaper than Bruce at those ages for a reason: He’s not nearly as good.

      • MK

        Key to your statement is Schebs can out perform, but the facts are to this point he hasn’t. It seen. has yet to be

      • kevinz

        some players are late bloomers stop looking in the past you guys.
        bruce hit 216 at age 27 then 226 at 28.
        so pretty sure schebler gonna outperform bruce starting this year as i said so gonna see it here soon

      • Doug Gray

        Most players AREN’T late bloomers, though. Most guys age on a bell curve, improving until they are 28, where they peak, then they start getting worse every year after that. The entire history of baseball tells us that, sans the steroid era. Last season Jay Bruce posted a 2.5 WAR. Scott Schebler has never come close to that.

        Bruce is not having a good season. At all. Schebler’s having a solid season. That doesn’t change much of anything that anyone has stated here, though: Scott Schebler’s never been nearly as good as Jay Bruce has been in the past. He’s not likely to be, either. That’s nothing against Schebler. Bruce was pretty good at times. He had two seasons that were truly All-Star caliber years (2010 and 2013), and several better than “every day starter” years, too.

      • kevinz

        I understand Doug your going back to the past again.
        I am simply stating I think Schebler if Healthy can Outperform Bruce 27 28 29 year old seasons not Last year or the before etc etc.

        Bruce of course had some good seasons not saying that just saying fell of at a younger age and think schebler can have better late 20 seasons

  9. Kindell

    Eric Cressey
    ?
    Verified account
    I saw this tweet below about Lyon Richardson and I am really started to like this kid. I really like this pick by the Reds. We might have gotten lucky that he didn’t get more time to prove to teams his updside as a pitcher.

    @EricCressey
    Follow Follow @EricCressey

    Lyon Richardson: 93-97mph last night & struck out 11/12 hitters he faced (0 baserunners). Hit a HR, too. Most impressive part of his weekend, though, is that he was back in the gym at 9am today. Many athletes say they “want it,” but few appreciate how much work “it” really takes.

    Reply
    • The Duke

      Everything I’ve read about the kid has been pretty positive, but that’s true every year at draft time. Can’t wait to see what he does out in Arizona this summer.

      Reply
    • MK

      My question is with all the money on the line what was he doing pitching last night. If that is true doesn’t seem like he has anyone with sense advising him.

      Reply
  10. kevinz

    Yea most do want it but not the work it take to actually grab there Dream.
    I liked him before seeing this really like the upside and feel like he would have been another 1st RD FLA Pitcher in a few years.

    Reply
  11. Alex

    Doug do you believe Tj Friedl is capable of playing cf in the majors? He hasnt played there much this year. With how well the 3 outfielders have been in Daytona I’m hoping one of them can be our cf of the future. Thanks!

    Reply
  12. AirborneJayJay

    With the LA Angels losing Otani indefinitely, Grade 2 UCL sprain, maybe the Reds should be calling the Angels. Stephenson and Finnegan for SS Kevin Maitan and Jo Adell and/or Brandon Marsh. Angels don’t have much invested in Maitan.
    Those Mike Trout years in Anaheim are dwindling down.

    Reply

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