Fangraphs Top 131 Prospects has six Cincinnati Reds Doug Gray June 11, 2018 63 Comments The prospect crew over at Fangraphs, Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel, have updated their prospect list. They went ahead and ranked 131 players, because that is how many grade 50 players or higher there were. A 50 grade means Major League average, and anything higher, of course, is better than that. Cincinnati Reds that moving up in the prospect rankings Nick Senzel is the top ranked Cincinnati Reds prospect. That shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who is reading this article. He moved up from 7th in the preseason to 6th. That comes from the graduation of Shohei Ohtani. The top eight prospects on the list were all in the top 10 to begin the season. After going 0-7 in his first two games from the disabled list he’s hitting .343 (9 games). Hunter Greene, outside of a hiccup for a few weeks earlier this season, has been pitching very well in Dayton this season. He’s up from 42nd on the list to 36th overall. He’s also the only player under the age of 19 that’s in the top 75 on the list. Outfielder Taylor Trammell has posted an OPS of .848 so far this season for the Daytona Tortugas. For anyone keeping track at home, that’s 1 point better than Nick Senzel had last season in Daytona. Trammell is up from 57th to 45th on the list. The biggest jump on the list for the Reds comes by second baseman Shed Long. He was an honorable mention prior to the season and is up to 78th on the list. He’s hitting .262/.336/.427 for Double-A Pensacola this season. To put into perspective his current prospect value, the player ranked directly ahead of him is Alec Bohm, who was just selected 3rd overall in the 2018 Major League Baseball draft. Jonathan India technically hasn’t moved up, but only because as a college player he wasn’t eligible for the preseason list. The 5th overall selection in the 2018 draft, India comes in ranked as the 97th prospect in baseball according to this list. Jose Siri fell out of the Top 100 list. After entering the year as the 93rd ranked prospect, his start to the season has seen him drop 15 spots down to the 108th spot on the list. Siri missed the first month-plus of the season. He injured his thumb during the first game of spring training. That cost him nearly 2 full months of disabled list time. The hitting aspect in Daytona has been solid, but unspectacular in his return. However, his 2.9% walk rate matched with a 28.6% strikeout rate is abysmal this season through 25 games and both rates are going to need to improve for him to keep from sliding down the list again. 63 Responses Hanawi June 11, 2018 Wow. 14 of the top 105 for Atlanta. That’s ridiculous. Also saw that they mentioned Jose Garcia in the write-up as someone that looks nothing like they thought he would. Matthew O'Neal June 11, 2018 In a good way or bad way concerning Garcia? Deywane June 11, 2018 Bad Way Doug Gray June 11, 2018 Garcia’s a real interesting guy. I’m looking forward to seeing what he does in the second half. Depending on when you see him, you could see a very different player. One scout I talked to, or, well, talked to me about him – he absolutely chimed in on Garcia while I was talking with someone else about another Reds player, was very adamant that he didn’t like much of anything about his game. I’ll stick with my guns on Garcia for now: The parts are all there. But there’s plenty of work to do in order to get those parts to start showing up every day. kevinz June 11, 2018 I thought here in the last few weeks garcia was improving quite a bit. The overall numbers do not show it though at this point. Kong June 11, 2018 Bust, like the other guys this “braintrust” paid millions for. RedsinWashSt June 12, 2018 Thanks King go back to sleep. CBruce June 11, 2018 We should all STOP comparing the Reds rebuild to ATL’s. They cheated to acquire most of these prospects. Hanawi June 11, 2018 Huh? They drafted almost all of those 14. Traded for a couple of them and only signed 2 of them as international players. Unlike the Reds, they valued talent instead of how close they were to the majors when they traded with teams. Kinsm June 12, 2018 The guys they cheated to get were released and have signed elsewhere. Wes June 11, 2018 And 7 in top 41. Is Atlanta the best franchise in baseball? They were good forever and now pulled off maybe best rebuild ever. James Phillips June 11, 2018 Don’t forget the Yankees. Zach June 11, 2018 Anyone you’re surprised didn’t make it? Santillan? Doug Gray June 11, 2018 I am a little bit surprised that Santillan wasn’t on the list. He’s the guy that sticks out to me as a guy that is being a bit underrated, as far as the Reds specific guys go. That said, Jeter Downs continues to be a guy that I think is going to be a quick riser on some lists in the next year, too. The Duke June 11, 2018 Downs and Santillan both cooled off substantially after a hot start. Likely played a role. Jonathan June 11, 2018 What about Tyler S? I’m surprised he’s not on the list either… Doug Gray June 11, 2018 Yeah, I’d argue he’s got to be in the top 130 (they claim 131, but there are only 130 players listed unless they added someone – player 130 was missing) if the list is for every 50 FV guy. Tyler Stephenson is a 50 FV guy. I won’t be convinced otherwise. asinghoff June 11, 2018 Odd that a numbers driven site like Fangraphs can’t get their numbers right… abado June 11, 2018 Interesting that MacKenzie Gore moved up to 60 FV. He parallels Hunter Greene closely: high school pitcher drafted immediately after Greene last year, hasn’t pitched a ton since being drafted (just 30 odd innings), has great stuff and good peripheral numbers but the ERA isn’t great this year. Eric & Kiley mentioned his stuff being great and deep. I’m just a little surprised he moved up so much given his limited playing time. How much can you really know based on 30 IP? I guess a lot. Hoyce June 11, 2018 If I had to put money down right now, I’d say gore has the best career outta that draft class. Love his stuff Joe June 11, 2018 If I had it to put down I’m putting it all on Greene 3 Jonathan June 12, 2018 Hey Doug. How would you compare Gore and Greene with respect to where they are now and their projection? Hoyce June 11, 2018 I’m surprised on santillian for sure. Also Stevenson, catchers are very valuable. And also the CF in Dayton (can’t think of his name). He’s done nothing but hit and walk. At a premium position. Wes June 11, 2018 Have to think at this point nick gordan is a serious upgrade over peraza at short. And he’s ready for mlb. He has to be expendable too. They got buxton in center and dozier at 2nd with Lewis coming up behind him and 2 other players in the mix. He’d be a great get if u didn’t give up senzel Greene or trammell kevinz June 11, 2018 I will get scolded for this but I would Trade Trammell for a Legit young SS. Corner OF much easier to get than a legit Shortstop. Joe June 11, 2018 i think if Tyler Stephenson played another position besides catcher where he could focus more on hitting and developing his power more he’d be top 100 easy at 6’4 225 lbs he could crush cuz he seems to already hav good feel and eye at the plate Norwood Nate June 11, 2018 Nice to see several Reds get recognition. I think they’re sleeping on Stephenson though, to me he’s the Reds 4th best prospect. Hoyce June 11, 2018 Doug- what’s ur take? Pick one Vlad Jr. or Acuna? Hunter Greene or Mac gore? And would u do a Senzel for sixto Sanchez? Phillies are reportedly looking for a 3B upgrade?? Doug Gray June 11, 2018 I’ll take Acuna. Vlad is the guy that will hit better. But I bet he winds up at first base and rather soon. Acuna will still hit quite a bit, but he’ll also play big defense and provide value on the bases. Greene. I’m not trading Senzel for a non-established pitcher. And even that is risky, because pitchers get hurt far too often. RedsinWashSt June 12, 2018 When do you think Senzel is coming up? AirborneJayJay June 11, 2018 Yeah, Santillan and TStephenson are 2 big omissions. Too bad they weren’t included. With all the hoarding of pitching Walt Jocketty did there isn’t much to show for it. Those drafts up top in 2011-2014 sure have set this organization back. SteveLV June 11, 2018 Doug, do you think the Reds have a plan for the 2B logjam? Assuming Suarez stays at 3rd, which makes sense and seems likely to me, Gennett, Senzel, Herrera, Long all stacked up won’t make sense for much longer – maybe until the trade deadline. I’d trade Gennett, start playing Senzel at SS or in the outfield (hopefully center), bring up Herrera, and promote Long. I think getting Long experience in the outfield makes some sense, but it’s not as time sensitive. Playing out the rest of the season with these guys in the spots they are playing doesn’t seem smart. jim t June 11, 2018 Steve I posted this on REDLEGNATION. Whatever fix the reds employ it has to be all encompassing. Pitching, hitting and defense. Winker is a LF. He can not field well enough to play anywhere else. Schebler is a RF. He has very limited range and is not a CF. Scooter is a 2nd. He does not fit in RF because of arm or CF because of range. He could play in LF but that is where Winker has to play. That is why I trade Scooter while his value is at its highest for Pitching. If I see another game where we out hit the other team and lose I may go crazy. We have a staff of 5 inning pitchers. That won’t cut it. We need starting pitching and our two best chips to acquire it are Scooter and Iggy. They are both positions of strength in this organization. Senzel at 2nd is where he has to play. Schebler in RF and Winker in LF. CF will be manned by Siri or Trammel. Probably in 2020. We have to continue to upgrade our starting pitching. I’m not saying we have a great offense but we have 3 options at 2nd. Senzel, Herrera and Long. If one of Trammel or Siri work out we have our CF. Iggy is another strength. We do not need a all star closer at this point. His value is high and should be utilized for starting pitching. Put some quality starting pitching on the field with Senzel at 2nd and Winker in LF and we will begin to start up the hill. It will also help stabilize the system. Playing players out of position is not a recipe for success. You can occasionally strike gold but more often then not you end up with a poor product. HavaKlu June 11, 2018 I feel Winker is a better defender than most of the rest of you guys. Granted, he is not the most athletic looking guy but he seems to get to most balls in his area, is pretty surehanded and has a much better arm than most think. Actually Schebler looks weaker to me, with his very short stride way of running and not that strong or accurate arm. Steelerfan June 11, 2018 Related to this, how did Herrera end up back on the roster? I saw that KC claimed him, but he is not showing on the Reds 40 man and I have not seen a subsequent transaction anywhere showing how we got him back. When we released Shackelford? Doug Gray June 11, 2018 Wrong Herrera. Rosell Herrera went to Kansas City. Dilson Herrera is still with the Reds and not on the roster. Doug Gray June 11, 2018 I continue to believe that the front office (re: the baseball people – not necessarily the owner) have Nick Senzel locked in at second base. The guys that aren’t Nick Senzel, I don’t know exactly what the plan is for them. Personally, I’m not even considering placing Senzel in the outfield. Everyone else can try it out. Senzel’s staying at second. Joe June 11, 2018 Agreed if ur good D in th dirt u stay in th dirt til u no longer cut it then try th outfield jim t June 11, 2018 I agree Doug. They aren’t playing Senzel in the outfield now in AAA so I have to believe his is going to play 2nd. The only place they can play Scooter is LF which happens to be in my mind the only place Winker can play. If the want to try Long in the outfield they need to do it now. All tradeable pieces need to get back starting pitching. Siri or Trammel will be our next CF. Shawn June 11, 2018 I still wonder about CF? If he could play there it would be huge in our rebuild Doug Gray June 11, 2018 I want Nick Senzel colliding with walls zero times. Keep him on the dirt. Kong June 11, 2018 I guess you missed the kid colliding with the dirt and jamming his shoulder. Pretty lame excuse not to play him in the outfield. You can get hurt just about anywhere. Doug Gray June 11, 2018 Yeah, I’m just going to disagree with you on this one to the extent of outfield/infield injuries specific to Nick Senzel. kevinz June 11, 2018 Especially at 2nd base look how many times players have taken out scooter at second base on slides so there is risk everywhere. CP June 12, 2018 While I agree with you Doug, it only thickens the amount of guys for the OF. If/when Senzel comes up this year, what would be the best approach? Does the front office need to pursue a trade for Duval and or Scooter? Even if they trade one of them, they still have too many OF’s… I’m starting to lean away from trading Scooter unless they can get a real quality player in return. His value is just becoming pretty established. An OF of Scooter, Schebler, Winker is pretty good offensively, but also not so great defensively. Do they keep Hamilton as a pinch run/defensive specialist? Then Duval is a power bat off the bench and/or trade bait? Eventually one of the teams areas of depth needs to lead to help in their areas of weakness (SS, CF, SP). Thoughts? jim t June 11, 2018 I’ll also throw this out there. We are fundamentally as bad a team as there is in the league and it starts with our 25 million dollar man. The next time I see him fooling around and responding to hecklers I may vomit. Get you head out of your tail and play ball. His act in Philly was cute but it won’t win you games. He has been picked off, missed making routine plays and generally looks uninterested while in the field. The throw he missed by Peraza the other nigh is a prime example. His base running also needs work. If this is the leader of the team it is no wonder we are were we are. I know this will not be popular but I call them like I see them. greg June 11, 2018 And someone needs to do something about those kids with the skateboards and their rock n roll music! Seat101 June 11, 2018 And get them off my lawn, too! Doug Gray June 11, 2018 Him messing with fans isn’t going to make him any better or worse. He’s not practicing when he’s trotting around in foul territory. Jim t June 12, 2018 Dougmuch of this is going on during the games. It speaks to his concentration level. Something at one time I considered a strength of his game. It appears his head is many places but in the game. Not a good look for the leader of the team. kevinz June 11, 2018 I agree with this Jim T i mean when your best player lack Fundamentals how do you expect the rest of the team to have them? Listen i like Votto alot but he is only good in the batters Box. Once he is not Hitting The rest of his game way below Average. MK June 11, 2018 I am with Jim and Kevin. Maybe if he starts hearing it from the fans he won’t feel so comfortable in Cincinnati and will either look like he gives a crap or accepts a trade to Toronto. Cardinals have done OK without Pujols RobL June 11, 2018 I think you do not know what a 34 year old looks like out in the field. Adrien Gonzalez was worth a total WAR of less than 2 in his age 34 season. Pujols was worth 2.3 for the whole year. Votto is already at 2.0. 34 year olds are generally poor in the field and on the bases. kevinz June 11, 2018 I agree that 34 year olds are Poor in the field and the bases. Votto has Long been a bad on the bases horrible Instincts in that regard. His throwing on Defense has been bad for long time as well before age is an excuse. I am not gonna Hate on Votto love Votto just he does have Flaws like all players though. jim t June 12, 2018 RobL, I can understand how age affects play. MY issue is the mental misstakes in the field. Falling asleep on the bases, throwing to the wrong base. It appears he is lost at times. He is the leader of the team and the bar is raised to his level. My hope is he being held accountable. Playing with the fans in the stands in Philly while we are being swept is not a good look. RedsinWashSt June 12, 2018 Votto is not a good fielder and not a good base runner. You have to have a good fielding team around him. He is what he is. He really should be a DH somewhere but then that contract does not play. RobL June 11, 2018 In regards to the rankings, performance doesn’t count for everything. Longenhagen has long stated his belief that Santillan is a reliever. After last season, he did say there was improvement, but I would bet that he still believes he is a reliever. And Atlanta has a bunch of people doing poorly on the list. Gohara and Fried are doing poorly in the big league bullpen. Wentz is doing poorly in high A walking 6 per 9 innings. Pache is currently sporting a K to BB rate of 5 to 1. Riley has a strike out rate of one third. Allard is striking out less than 6 per 9 innings. While most of these guys are young for their level, they have already established themselves on the list and their tools have been established. Long has been on their radar for awhile. Tyler Stephenson probably has to put in a whole year before they start to rate him. rick in boise June 11, 2018 BTW, 1st inning in CWS and… HR: J. India (20, 1st inning off A. Mitchell 0 on, 2 Out) AirborneJayJay June 11, 2018 It was a nice shot to RF, an opposite field shot. In his next AB with a runner on third the Auburn pitcher gave an IBB. MK June 11, 2018 Not India but the stolen base play was great. Colorado Red June 11, 2018 Top of the 11th, stilled tied at 2. Would like AUB to win, so we can sign our guys, and get them going. Doug Gray June 11, 2018 Welp. AllTheHype June 12, 2018 Siri’s K/BB rate was poor in 2017 and abysmal so far in 2018. He hasn’t made necessary adjustments in his approach, obviously. At age 22, which is age advantaged for a top prospect in A+, I’m not sure he’s in the Reds’ top 10 after the draft guys get added in, let alone MLB’s top 131.