It seems that this is becoming routine, and with each next start Hunter Greene makes it’s his best start. Last night in Lake County it was about as dominant of a start as you are going to come across. Greene set a career high with 7.0 innings pitched. He allowed just two hits in the start and he walked no one. He also set a new career high with 10 strikeouts.

None of that was the most impressive thing of his start, though. What was is that he needed just 69 pitches to get through his outing. 52 of his pitches were strikes on the night. It’s almost unheard of to strike out 10 batters in 7.0 innings on 69 total pitches.

For the entire season Hunter Greene has now made 15 starts and posted a 4.15 ERA. In his 60.1 innings he’s walked 19 batters and he’s struck out 77 hitters. Those numbers would be good on their own. But when you toss in that he’s doing it at age 18, it’s even more impressive.

However, if you look at what he’s been doing over the last ten starts you start to see an even more impressive picture. Since May 12th he’s posted a 2.31 ERA in 50.2 innings. Thats come with just 39 hits allowed, nine walks, and he’s struck out 59 batters.

With the run that he’s on, there are a few questions that are on the minds of Reds fans (as noted by my mentions on the twitter machine). The first is, will the Cincinnati Reds promote Hunter Greene this year? And that’s a pretty interesting question. My initial thought was that no, they won’t. It’s possible that he will have his innings limited. It’s a little bit easier to do that in Dayton than in Daytona.

But, that also brings up something that the organization said, and I’m paraphrasing here, but it was something to the extent of they would let his performance dictate how quickly he would move. And maybe that was more of a long-term thing than a 2018 thing. While it’s probably too early to promote him right now, if he continues this kind of performance how long could you keep him in the Midwest League?

The other question that seemed to come up was if and when the Reds would shut down Hunter Greene for the season. The Reds have not made a statement on exactly what they would do when it comes to managing his workload other than they have a plan. Right now, Greene has thrown 60.1 innings on the season. There are still two months of the year remaining. If he matches what he threw in June during the months of July and August, that would push his season total to 107.1 innings pitched.

That would be a lot by comparison for most 18-year-old’s drafted out of high school in recent years, but it wouldn’t be outrageous, either. Most guys don’t spend a full season playing while they are 18. The innings they throw in extended spring aren’t being counted in the stat lines. However, those innings are happening and do exist.

With all of that said, it wouldn’t surprise me either way. If the Reds were to shut things down, or slow them up for Hunter Greene to limit his innings – it would make sense. But it they let him go out and treat July and August similarly to how he pitched in June, it would also make sense as long as he wasn’t showing signs of fatigue or tiring.

Hunter Greene to pitch in the Futures Game

Hunter Greene will reportedly participate in the 2018 Futures Game. The game will take place on July 15th as a part of the All-Star game weekend festivities. The teams have not yet been released. Most teams usually send two players, but not always. Who will, or if someone else will join Hunter Greene from the organization is currently unknown.

DALTON AND GREEN IN 2018 T SHIRT

42 Responses

  1. kevinz

    I really Hope Trammell Joines Greene at the Future Games he Deserves more attention.

    • MK

      Not always but they usually get someone on both teams. l don’t remember a game where they had two USA or two World players.

    • Joe

      Vlad has been looking a lot better his past 5-6starts he might get the nod to represent the reds for team world

    • The Duke

      I think we’ll see Trammell there next year. They like to get hitters from the upper minors more often than not if they can.

  2. Simon Cowell

    The Reds are exciting to watch the past few weeks. I might have to buy season tickets for next year.

  3. Ghettotrout1

    I would like to see TJ make seems like that guy just keeps performing without too much attention paid to him too.

  4. Wes

    If Greene keeps this up through end of season he’ll go into next season as #2 prospect in all of baseball only behind vlad jr. And his ceiling is best player in all of baseball. If they can stretch his innings be cool to see him promoted to play in playoffs in Daytona.

    Still wish reds had Christian yelich in stead of him ?

    Yeah this might be 3rd version of reds rebuild and e z to be frustrated bc of that but this organization is really coming around! They should have best minor league system going into 2019.

    • CincyUte

      I agree the farm system is starting to look really good.

      Yet, only one team in the entire organization (Daytona) currently has a winning record (.566). Weird how that works.

    • The Duke

      Yelich is on pace for 4.5 WAR this year and is still controlled through 2022. Greene likely doesn’t help the Reds until 2021 at the earliest. I was fine not pulling that trigger, but I got the arguments for it as well. If Trammell can handle CF though, it could work out really well not making that deal.

      2021 lineup:

      Jose Peraza, SS (If he can become what he was in June)
      Nick Senzel, 2B (High OBP with pop)
      Joey Votto, 1B (High OBP with pop)
      Eugenio Suarez (High OBP with pop)
      Taylor Trammell, CF (High OBP with pop)
      Jesse Winker, LF (High OBP with pop)
      Tucker Barnhart/Tyler Stephenson (Good OBP, break up the lefties)
      Scott Schebler (Solid OBO with pop)

      Possibly flip Schebler and Peraza if Peraza regresses to bad Jose). That’s possibly a helluva lineup. Trammell could possibly move into that 3 spot as well as Votto ages if he is what we hope he can become.

      • Norwood Nate

        Not expecting India to be up by 2021? Or just don’t think he’ll crack the starting lineup?

      • Stock

        That is an awesome lineup. Additionally Siri or Friedl could be there in 2020 or even late 2019. But this lineup is exactly why you don’t trade for Yelich. The Reds had 0 chance in 2018. They don’t have the pitching. Likewise, unless they trade for or acquire someone in the off-season 2019 seems like a rebuilding year also.

        So if you trade for Yelich you get him for 5 seasons. The first (2018) is wasted on a team going nowhere. The second may be wasted. I would like to think they are contending in 2020 so that would not be wasted. 2021 and 2022 are again excess because Trammell will be ready. Why trade 7 productive years of Greene for 1-3 productive years of Yelich?

        And it is not like Yelich is a unique situation. There will be someone out there prior to the 2020 season the Reds can acquire.

        Prior to 2017 it was Sale and Eaton
        Mid season 2017 it was Quintana
        Prior to 2018 it was Yelich, Cole and Ozuna
        Right now it appears to be Syndergaard, DeGrom and Scooter.

        Wait until we are actually contending before we give up prospects. And rarely, if ever give up a gem like Greene.

        What I found interesting last winter was that Trammell or Greene were available but Senzel was not. My view is that of the three Senzel is the most available.

      • CP

        Love that potential lineup. By that time, there will be good competition in several spots as well. Any of these guys could be pushing for a spot by 2021.

        SS- Alfredo R., Downs, Garcia (If any of them work out there…)
        OF- Siri, Aquino, Beltre, Friedl, Fairchild

        Time will tell with India. I would love it if they gave him a shot to stick at SS. If he hits they will find a spot for him.

  5. MK

    Since between High School and Billings he pitched very few innings last year you really have to wonder what his inning ceiling is this year. Can not imagine it is much more than 90 or 100.

    • Joe

      I’d say they cap him around 100 innings then next yr bump him to 130-150..

    • abado

      If he has < 10 pitches per inning like yesterday's start, give him all the innings he can handle!

  6. Joe

    7 innings 10ks on 69 pitches! That’s crazy the control this young man has at 98+.. amazing. I know there will b hiccups in the rd to the show but 2020 is looking realistic for him aslong as injuries don’t derail him

  7. The Duke

    I can see him getting into that 100-110 range, especially if he keeps being as pitch efficient as he has been lately. IP is a bit of an arbitrary figure. Some guys will throw 105 pitching in 5 innings, but on paper if you don’t look deeper than IP it looks like he had an easier game on his arm than Greene throwing 7 IP, when the truth is he threw 36 less pitches. That 107.1 number is pretty good as it would allow Greene to get into the 130-150 IP range next season as long as everything is feeling fine still. By 2021 you want him to be in a position to where we aren’t worrying about innings limits anymore.

    • Billy

      Yeah, I hope this is true. Even though we armchair GMs pay attention to IP and the rule of thumb to not increase workload by more than 30 innings in a season, I do hope that MLB teams are more sophisticated than that. I hope they’re looking at the number of pitches and the stress of those pitches in making these decisions. I’d love to see Greene get 110 innings this season. He’s been pretty efficient, and I just don’t think it that heavy a workload for someone pitching as easy as he is right now.

  8. terry m

    Doug

    Does Varner have the stuff to be a long relief for the Reds ??

  9. Jbrat22

    Was at the game last night sitting behind the plate. I’m no scout but this kid’s stuff is nasty. Guys we’re trying to sit on his fastball early on and made solid contact on a few. Greene started mixing in his slider (which was filthy) and they had no chance to hit either one because they were so off-balance.

    Seemed like he was throwing 4 different pitches, but it might have only been 3…there was no radar gun at the park. Pretty sure he threw two different fastballs, one that had arm side run (2-seamer?) and the 4-seamer. Also threw a change-up that dropped and broke to his arm-side, along with the slider that had sink and a ton of lateral movement.

    Lake County’s starter held Dayton’s offense to 2 hits, and the Dragons didn’t get anything going until the 8th. A solo HR and two doubles in a row (the second by Jeter Downs) netted the Dragons two runs in the eighth, and Corey Thompson (having a really nice year, appparently) finished off the final two innings.

    A couple other notes:
    -Jose Israel garcia got tossed after an odd sequence. Garcia asked for time out right as the pitcher started his delivery. The umpire looked like he granted time, then changed his mind and let the pitch count. Garcia gave an emergency swing and poked a single to right field, only for the ump to say it didn’t count. Garcia took a called 3rd strike on the next pitch, turned around and snapped his bat (it was pretty bad ass), and the ump threw him out. He then took about 10 minutes to exit the park, walking as slow as humanly possible out to the right field exit. Pretty funny.
    -Garcia is a pretty big, athletic dude…Henrik Clementina is also enormous, but not in an athletic way
    -Nolan Jones, a top-100 prospect, had a couple warning track shots against Greene. Greene also made him look silly on one AB.

    • MK

      If you see or stand next to Hendrick in street clothes you would just think Big Dude and looks very strong and athletic. He is thick in the butt and thighs but bot fat which is accentuated by baseball knickers. He has really learned to use those legs to generate power.

    • BurgRed

      Thanks for the recap! I really enjoyed reading it.

    • Norwood Nate

      That is an odd sequence, can’t really blame Garcia for being upset about how things played out. Sounds like the ump didn’t have a very good handle on what to do.

      Thanks for sharing, it’s always nice to get those little extra bits of info from in-person viewings.

  10. RedsinWashst

    Wonder if they could slow his innings down so that he could pitch in Daytona’s playoffs. It could be a good learning experience for him.

  11. Joe

    I seen rumor the nats r looking at Iggy n Harvey n msy think Iggy can go bak to starting!? Would suck if we traded him n he become lights out closer

      • kevinz

        Nats have to give The Reds Robles to get both Iggy and harvey right?
        I mean either Robles or Soto which Doubt that will soo Nooo Deal lol

    • Stock

      The Nationals have two prospects of note, Robles and Kieboom. Since Kieboom is a 3B he should not be a target for the Reds. If the Nationals were willing to offer Robles for Iggy and Harvey I would not hesitate. Without Robles though I don’t see a deal with the Nationals would be helpful to the Reds.

      • Norwood Nate

        I have also really liked Soto, but now that he’s up and playing well for the Nats it’s less likely they’d trade him, probably want to keep him for Harper insurance.

      • Bubba Woo

        I’d make that trade in a second. Don’t think the Nationals would do it, but they have an owner in his late 90s and are more than likely losing Harper after the season, so who knows?

  12. Stock

    I agree with Duke from earlier. It seems teams look at innings pitched when they should be looking at pitch count. Limit Greene to 60-70 pitches and over the course of the season (usually about 25-27 starts in the minors) he should pitch 100-110 innings. He can play the whole season. However if he is efficient and throws strikes you are rewarding him by letting him pitch the 5th, 6th and in this case the 7th inning. I feel that if you are completing 5 innings in less than 70 pitches you are being efficient with your pitches. To complete 7 innings is amazing. A couple of more starts like this and he will be on a plane to Daytona.

    • The Duke

      I think at this point in the season, they should let him go more 80-85 pitches if the flow of the game allows it. I’m ok with them taking him out after 69 pitches and 7 innings last night, but I don’t think he needs a hard cap of 70 either.

    • Tom

      It’s true, there has to be some way to evaluate a pitcher over the course of the season that reflects how much they do and how much stress is involved.

      IP is great shorthand, pitch count adds something, perhaps a stat like pitch count per inning should start showing up in baseball stat sites or already does. Or, number of innings over 20, 25, 30 pitches. There may be further correlation there.

      In general, Finnegan, Desclafani, Iglesias and others could be identified as having thrown way too much their first seasons as starters. It’s hard to cap a player like Greene when honestly it’s just too fun to stop watching, but it’s the wise thing to do.

    • Stock

      Actually I love the idea of Greene not starting an inning if he has thrown more than 60/70 pitches. This has several advantages.

      1. You don’t have to shut him down a month before the season ends.

      2. Much less stress on the arm than pitching 110 innings and being shut down early.

      3. He doesn’t pitch tired and therefore is less susceptible to bad habits and improper form which can result in injury or poor performance down the road.

      4. He is part of the team the whole season instead of just a portion of it.

      I like the idea of a limit of 70 pitches your first season, 85 your second, 100 your third and 110 your fourth.

      If you are going to throw 110 innings over the course of a season that means about 1600 pitches. I would much rather have a pitcher throw 60 pitches in 27 starts than 80 pitches with 20 starts. Same number of pitches. Just less chance of injury. Again the number of pitches should go up every year so that by the time he is in the majors he can throw 100 pitches.

  13. Stock

    How efficient was Hunter Greene last night?

    Comparison: Vladimir Gutierrez had a great game last night. 6 shut out innings. 64% of his pitches for strikes. 91 pitches. This was an efficient game and a quality one.

    Hunter Greene went one extra inning an threw 22 fewer pitches. 75% of his pitches were strikes. Fantastic start.

    I remember Randy Jones used to be able to complete 9 innings on a regular basis and many of the games he still threw less than 100 pitches. Very few pitches before or since have been as efficient as Randy Jones. Last night Hunter Greene was more efficient than Randy Jones and he struck out 10 (12.86/9 IP) batters where Randy Jones struck out 2.65/9 IP in his Cy Young season.

  14. Stock

    As Joe mentioned above, Greene is not the only pitcher really impressing recently.

    Over his last 5 starts Vladimir Gutierrez has a 1.55 ERA, with 9.62 K/9 IP and 2.17 BB/9 IP. He has really been impressive. Hopefully he has turned the corner.

    • Joe

      I’m big vlad guy I kno he has rough patches here n there but the guy sat out for 2yrs and when he’s on u can c Iggy 2.0

      • Stock

        I agree Joe. You hit the nail on the head with that comment. Him sitting out 2 years is a big factor. Since it happens so rarely it is hard to calculate when the light turns on but hopefully it has for both Vlade and Garcia.

  15. Joe

    For sure I think once vlad n Garcia get few yrs between them and there time off they will start looking like legit big leaguers and going over th penalty will b worth it hopefully.. as for Arod not sure there is enough bat in him