Thursday morning Reds farm system news and notes Doug Gray July 5, 2018 42 Comments This is your preview of sorts: I will be updating my Cincinnati Reds prospect list on Monday. If you are a Patreon supporter (and why wouldn’t you be?), you’ll get the list over the weekend. I decided to hold off until Monday because I didn’t get it completed on Wednesday, and Friday will be the Futures Game roster announcement and I’d rather not bury the news. On Wednesday night Packy Naughton was dominant for the Dayton Dragons. The left-handed pitcher tossed 7.0 shutout innings with a walk and he struck out five batters. He needed just 77 pitches to get through his outing, with 54 of them being strikes. It was his second straight start without an earned run – throwing 6.0 shutout innings on June 29th against South Bend. http://redsminorleagues.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Sequence-01.mp4 Jose Siri homers again for Pensacola Jose Siri came up huge for the Pensacola Blue Wahoos on Wednesday night. After tripling in the 1st inning he smashed a grand slam in the next inning to put the Blue Wahoos up 5-0. Your browser does not support iframes. The grand slam was Jose Siri’s 4th home run since joining Pensacola two weeks ago. He had only hit one home run while in Daytona in just over a month. He also drew a walk in the game, giving him four with the Blue Wahoos – which is the same number he had with the Tortugas. The strikeout rate is still far higher than you would like to see (51 in 43 games), but the power, and even the walks are starting to show up in Double-A for the outfielder. Mitch Nay is also doing some real damage in Pensacola. He was promoted to the Blue Wahoos a week ago and he’s done nothing but crush the ball. Like Siri, he homered on Wednesday night – though his home run was a solo shot. In his seven games played, Nay has hit .333/.462/.905 with three doubles, three triples, and he’s walked three times. 42 Responses Matthew O'Neal July 5, 2018 With the win last night, and a Tigers loss, the Reds are now tied with the Rangers for the 9th pick in the draft next June. And only 2.5 games behind Pittsburgh from being out of the cellar in the central. The Duke July 5, 2018 The 4 BB an 4 HR in 13 AA games or Siri is pretty good. The 39.6 K rate and .205 average not so much. I don’t doubt the tools, except the hit one. SultanofSwaff July 5, 2018 If at all, the Reds would likely wait until the all-star break to bump Romano from the rotation, but after another subpar outing it’s becoming all the more clear he is not cut out to be a starter……or at least one at the big league level right now. If I’m in charge, BobSteve slides in for the rest of the year and I’m not waiting another 2 starts to make it happen because the sample size is legit. In regards to the rotation moving forward, I would hope Reed isn’t going to rot in the bullpen for 3 weeks until (or if) Harvey gets traded. I hope even more that Bailey isn’t the first man up, but you could totally see that happening. Shamrock July 5, 2018 As a result of the Reds/Floro trade, the Dodgers have designated former top Reds prospect Daniel Corcino for assignment. https://dodgerblue.com/dodgers-news-daniel-corcino-designated-for-assignment/2018/07/04/ Could he be worth “kicking the tires” on again!? Shamrock July 5, 2018 The same RHP Daniel Corcino who was once heralded around these parts as “Johnny Cueto 2” https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.mlb.com/61923342-bernie-pleskoff-reds-pitching-prospect-daniel-corcino-could-be-next-johnny-cueto.amp.html Billy July 5, 2018 Assuming you were interested in Corcino… Since we have an open spot, could the Reds claim him and then immediately DFA him before adding someone else to the 40-man? (Dilson Herrera?) Shamrock July 5, 2018 I believe so………. Doug????? redlegs4ever July 5, 2018 Yes they can do that, it would expose Corcino, or any player claimed, to unrevocable waivers again. But it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Reds try something like this. You see it a lot in the spring. Billy July 5, 2018 Sure… He’s not their player though. Seems like a zero-risk move to me. Michael P July 5, 2018 Looking forward to you updated top prospects rankings. Especially interested where our recently drafted players land. Bromleyjake July 5, 2018 How does Siri’s CF defense stack up to Billy’s? If he gives you comparable defensive range with a better arm and power at the plate, he should still be considered an upgrade even with a less than desired hit tool. Alex July 5, 2018 Billy Hamilton has a big time arm as well. I think people tend to forget that. He has been clocked over 100mph on an outfield throw before. Colorado Red July 5, 2018 Really nice throw to the plate last night. Save 1 run in the outfield. CP July 5, 2018 I would be curious to hear thoughts on this as well. It’s often so hard to quantify Billy’s value, but you can really feel it when you watch him during a game. There is no doubt that Billy brings value, but how much? And at what point would you say someone else brings more? Siri isn’t there yet anyways, but this question will have to be answered over the next year or so one way or the other. kevinz July 5, 2018 Hamilton’s speed does get all the shine but tied for lead with 8 OF assist in NL . Hamilton’s Value really seems to Double for me. when Have Hitters around him in the Corner OF spots plus when Hits Lower in Order . when team struggled hitting along with Hamilton at top it seemed his Value was less than it is Now. I value Billy now more than did in past years . kevinz July 5, 2018 I feel like i am the highest on Siri on this Board. He is walking more in AA than in A+ I think he will improve on not Striking out as much plus walk more which he is so far like said in AA. I think Siri defense a Notch or so below Billy as of now but i think by 24-25 he will be. Remember Billy did play on the IF in MILB for awhile. So i believe since Siri already in the Outfield he has a head start since Hamilton started in CF late. Stock July 5, 2018 I agree Kevin. I don’t think he is 100% back yet. Once he gets his timing back the BB% will approach 7-10 % and the K% will drop below 25%. He is very close now. He could be roaming CF in GABP sooner than most people on here give him credit for. I have Siri as my #4 prospect (ahead of India) and think he will be a star. His play will force the Reds to trade Winker/Schebler to create a spot for Trammell because Siri will be the Reds CF from 2020-2025 kevinz July 5, 2018 See i agree stock i am not sure how much he with improve on offense. I know he will Improve on his Rates has now though. I just see with having hamilton like defense in CF how much that can Help. I just see how if have you have two good Hitters hitting in the Corner OF spots How that can Cover up a Great Defender who can not hit in CF. So to me if Reds have Hitters in LF and RF Siri has High Value, even if can not hit his weight. Most players have to Hit to have Value. While with Siri his D speed baserunning in the least gives him some nice Value. BurgRed July 5, 2018 I watched him a lot in Dayton last year and was at the Spring game when he was hurt this year. He looked like Bham going after that ball in CF! I still think he looks like a young ED with tons of talent. It seems that S-outs is the way of life in the MLB these days so that doesn’t scare me at all. But I tell you when he hits the ball it goes a long way and man can he fly! I think the Reds know what they have in him and will bring him along fast. If you have a need for speed he’s your guy and you will forget Bham all the sooner. Matt July 5, 2018 Siri is the next Wily Mo Pena kevinz July 5, 2018 Could be right Matt i just see more value with Siri though. Pena could not play CF or have 30-30 Potential like Siri. Stock July 5, 2018 I will take Wily Mo Pena’s 2004 offensive season. 26 HR and 66 RBI in roughly 2/3 of a season. Difference is Siri is not lost on defense. Another difference is Siri is a threat on the bases. I will take 30+ HR, 90+ RBI, Great defense, Great base running and 175 K. Where do we sign up for those stats? Sounds to me like a 4+ WAR player and quite possibly the Reds most valuable player. Stock July 5, 2018 In fact in Wily Mo’s final two seasons with the Reds he had 699 PA. That equates to about 1 year’s worth of PA (for Comparison Joey Votto had 707 last year). In those 699 PA he had 35 HR, 87 Runs, 117 RBI and a .257 BA and an OPS of about .820. His defense was terrible (-17 defensive WAR in 2005). But his offense collects MVP votes. You give me that offense with Siri’s defense and ability on the base paths and I will put up with the 224 K’s. Thank you very much for the Wily Mo comparison. That just makes Siri look better!!! kevinz July 5, 2018 I know different spots but if Siri could learn to hit like Baez for the Cubs. He is showing can be aggressive and still hit making an impact. Lower OBP but Put up Power stats with Plus Defense. Would i Love Siri to walk more Yes i would. Trying to show look at Baez has 12 walks in over 300 ab Still making an Impact no doubt. Stock July 5, 2018 Exactly Kevin. Baez has a 3.7% BB% and a 25.2% K% yet still has the 9th best offensive WAR in the NL. You can argue Baez is lacking a hit tool based upon his BB% and his K%. But I will take his results all day long. This is why I have Siri as my #4 prospect. kevinz July 5, 2018 Baez Walk tool on the Lower end but his Hit tool on the Higher end lol. Baez can Hit just does not walk. kevinz July 5, 2018 Stinks to see Hou interested in a LHP Closer. So is SD going to Add more highly ranked Prospects with there closer hand? Man if they do they are going to be beyond Loaded on the Prospect front. Bill July 5, 2018 Following the Dylan Floro trade, what comes next? I anticipate we will see more movement over the next few weeks: – Harvey: his performance has exceeded expectations. He should be gone to the highest bidder as he is a FA after this season. Must sell! – Hernandez and Hughes: both have exceeded expectations and with only one year left on their contracts available for value in return. They offer contenders proven track records at a position of need at a bargain salary and won’t command a team’s top prospect in return. To the Reds, they are at peak value and not part of the long-term plan. Time to sell, but no need to take the best offer unless trade delivers long-term value in return. – Gennett: young enough that extending is an option, but we have so many replacement options internally at 2B or LF it’s really hard to justify hanging on to him at this point. His value couldn’t be any higher right now. We may need to see where Machodo lands before interest heats up for Scooter. Scooter would be a big upgrade to the Brewers (not sure I see a good trade target), Indians, Dodgers, D-Backs and Phillies. All likely expect to compete next year as well and will need to be able to provide an upgrade at starting pitcher or CF to Reds to justify a trade. – Iglesias: with 3 and 1/2 seasons of control the Reds will expect an overwhelming return. Over the last two weeks, Iggy has given up 2 HRs and blown a save. While he has a long-term track record of success, he’s not really peaking right now. There will be less expensive in terms of salary/prospect return relievers available. Also, if Hughes and Hernandez go as I anticipate they will, the Reds may simply prefer to hold on to Iglesias as he can be part of their next run of success. He’s available, but only for premium return at CF or starting pitcher. – Duvall: Winker is on the verge of earning the LF spot. Schebler has secured RF. Duvall provides a legitimate major league bench piece that can back up LF, RF and 1B. The Reds should listen to offers, but the long-term value must favor the Reds to warrant a trade as Duvall is controllable and affordable for a few more years. – Hamilton: currently our only true CF, Hamilton only becomes available if the Reds acquire a major league ready CF (perhaps Verdugo or Brett Phillips). But if that happens, he becomes available for any team that wants to provide value in return. He can help a contender, but it’s time to move on as soon as his replacement is in place. Reaganspad July 5, 2018 I am ok to trade Hernandez, but I am reluctant to trade Jared Hughes. The guy reminds me of Scott Sullivan. The guy just stabilizes a pen. Guys around him are getting better as he shares his knowledge. And he is flat out performing. Guys come and go in the pen but to have someone who gets it and is good at it, is a good thing to have. Actually, I would look to extend hughes; add a year to his contract if he is open Trading Dylan made great sense to me. Hughes, not so much. Shawn July 5, 2018 If Reds trade Iglesias, which I think they should, we should keep Hughes. Bill July 5, 2018 I agree, Hughes is absolutely been a rock in the pen. He’s produced 2.0 WAR thus far and has been great on and off the field … all valid points. That said, he’s never produced at this level before. He turned 33 yesterday and is on the wrong side of the aging curve. He’s at or near career best in every category and he’s been playing for 8 seasons. In spite of all he’s done so far, he’s near the top of the list of players that should be traded. His value is at an undeniable peak and there is demand in the market–this is the perfect time to sell. Tom July 5, 2018 Great points Bill. wes July 5, 2018 Duvall/Hamilton give value to many teams, but the return will likely not be much more than what they got for floro. Maybe a top 10 organizational prospect. Is that worth it? Sure imo, time to move on- especially from Duvall. I agree on Iggy not being as good as advertised, but he is still very good. But how much more so than Hughes or Hernandez? Iggy 2.6 era 1.04 whip and 42K’s in 37 inning’s Hughes 1.4 era 1.09 whip and 35K’s in 46 inning’s Hernandez 1.8 era 1.07 whip and 32K’s in 30 innings Isn’t this what Hughes and Hernandez were signed to do though? I give credit to management for identifies talent to buy low. So why trade any of them if the return is not grand? To me Hughes and Hernandez are both more valuable than Duvall and prob Billy as well and all 3 are key pieces to a competitive 2019 team as Harvey could easily be as well. The price for starting pitching dropped drastically last off season and reds could retain his services if they like his projectable ability. And the same goes for Scooter. Adding Senzels bat and removing Scooters makes the offense worse. Add Senzel or Herrera and keep scooter’s bat in lineup as well. Time to stop rebuilding and start winning. Trade guys if you get a good return only; but lean to keep talent you will need to win next year. The Floro trade wasn’t enough coming back imo and it’s more likely Reds compete with bullpen next season vs rotation. Stock July 5, 2018 I see no reason to trade for a CF. Although Hamilton is not great he is acceptable in CF. Moreover, Friedl and Siri should be ready by June 2019 and possibly as early as April. Any trade the Reds make should focus on SP where they have at least 2 big holes. kevinz July 5, 2018 I agree need to target Pitching. When your team is 1st in Runs scored since april 23rd you Target pitching in any trade that is made. Atl Phil Tb the 3 teams that hope can spark some interest with for some Pitching. Gregorio July 5, 2018 Any word on who’s moving from Greeneville to make room for India & Siani? From what all scouts say, the Pioneer League is better than the Appy. But, if that’s true, starting India there is odd, unless they’re going to work him at SS. And if Siani has hitting issues, starting him in AZ, instead of rushing him and possibly affecting him may be best. Also, taking playing time from White, Rey and Scantlin in the OF would be wrong, because they’re doing great. Who looked to be the best hitting prospects when you watched Greeneville? With the pitchers it is clearly Gray. Finally, in talking with scouts they say Jose Garcia is an NP (non-prospect) on both sides of the ball, so why compound the $5M signing by letting him block someone like Jonathan Willems, who can hit (6th in Appy RBI and near top in BA), Cash Case, who seems to over his 2017 injury and is 7th in RBI & high up in BA), or Miguel Hernandez, who doesn’t have the hit tool, but is a very good defender? Any of those 3 is light years improvement over Garcia. Bryant Galbaugh July 5, 2018 White spent most of last season in Billings; wouldn’t be surprised if they moved him there mark July 5, 2018 my opinion on Schebler what has he really done to be guaranteed a spot on the team going forward as starting RF or CF for that matter…. he is ok but there is a TON of swing in miss in his at bats I’ve been seeing the last month. I think we get just as much offense from RF if they put Herrera out there for instance?? I still don’t get the Senzel at 2b thing this year…… he is clearly athletic enough to play OF and that opens up second for either Herrera or Shed Long if Gennett is traded. I like the FLORO trade I think it helps open up the bullpen a little bit for younger guys in AAA to come up and contribute. Michael Smith July 5, 2018 352/477/829 is what he has done. 122 ops plus, plays solid defense. Slice July 5, 2018 Reds release Max Wottell, half of the Bruce trade. Just never panned out. Awesome July 5, 2018 I am wondering if the reds will try and get Tim Collins from Washington recently designated. He looked solid and they have a bullpen opening Colorado Red July 5, 2018 FA after this year. Doubt it, but I could be wrong.