Cincinnati Reds Minor League Game Review: 7/6/18 Doug Gray July 7, 2018 37 Comments If you aren’t signed up to support the site through Patreon yet, you can do that today and start getting emails each morning with notes and updates from each game (and other perks, including a rundown of how each of the Reds Top 25 prospects performed the night before). Louisville lost 3-2. Box Score Mason Williams went 1-4. Phillip Ervin went 1-4 with a home run (4) and 2 RBI. Brandon Dixon went 2-4 with a double. D.J. Peterson went 1-4 with a triple. Josh VanMeter went 1-3 with a run scored. Justin Nicolino threw 5.0 shutout innings with 2 strikeouts. Pensacola won 8-7 in 11 innings. Box Score TJ Friedl went 2-6 with a triple, RBI, and he scored 2 runs. Jose Siri went 1-5 with a double, walk, and he scored 2 runs. Shed Long went 1-3 with an RBI. He was hit by a pitch in the head/face and had to leave the game. No update as of 1:25am. Mitch Nay went 0-3 with 3 walks and 2 runs. Narciso Crook went 2-4 with a triple, run scored, and he had 3 RBI. Gavin LaValley went 1-3 with 2 walks. Taylor Sparks went 2-5 with a double and he had an RBI. Seth Varner allowed a run in 5.0 innings with 3 walks and 5 strikeouts. Carlos Navas threw 1.2 perfect innings with a strikeout. Alex Powers allowed a run in 2.0 innings with 3 strikeouts. Daytona won 8-0. Box Score Randy Ventura went 1-4 with a walk and he scored a run. Brantley Bell went 3-4 with 2 doubles, a triple, an RBI, and he scored a run. Bruce Yari went 1-4 with a run and an RBI. Ibandel Isabel went 2-2 with 2 walks, a home run (20), 2 runs scored, and he had 3 RBI. Daniel Sweet went 2-4 with 2 doubles and 2 runs scored. Alberti Chavez went 1-3 with 2 RBI. Scott Moss threw 7.0 shutout innings with 2 hits allowed, a walk, and he struck out 8 batters. Nick Howard threw a perfect inning with 3 strikeouts. Aaron Fossas threw a shutout inning of relief. Dayton won 4-2. Box Score Jose Garcia went 2-4 with a walk, 2 runs scored, and he had an RBI. Jeter Downs went 1-4 with an RBI and a walk. Leandro Santana went 1-3 with 2 walks. Alejo Lopez went 1-2 with a triple, 2 walks, and he scored a run. Raul Wallace went 1-4 with a run scored. Austin Orewiler was charged with 2 unearned runs in 4.0 innings with a walk and a strikeout. Connor Bennett threw 2.0 hitless innings with a walk and 2 strikeouts. Ryan Nutof threw 2.0 shutout innings with 2 strikeouts. John Ghyzel threw a perfect inning with 2 strikeouts. Billings won 8-2. Box Score Zeek White went 1-4 with a walk, solo home run (3), and he scored 2 runs. Jake Turnbull went 3-3 with a double, walk, home run (1), and he scored 3 runs. Drew Mount went 2-4 with 2 doubles and he had 4 RBI. Bren Spillane went 1-3 with a walk. Juan Martinez went 1-4 with a solo home run (1). Nadir Ljatifi went 1-3 with a double, walk, and he scored a run. Urwin Juaquin went 1-4 with a run scored. Ricky Salinas allowed a run in 5.0 innings with 3 strikeouts. Andrew McDonald threw 2.0 shutout innings with 3 strikeouts. Ryan Campbell threw a hitless inning with a walk and 2 strikeouts. Greeneville was postponed. AZL Reds won 3-2. Box Score Peterson Plaz went 1-3 with a walk and a double. Danielito Remy went 2-4. Edwin Yon went 0-2 with 2 walks and a run scored. Victor Ruiz went 1-3 with a walk. Elvis Gomez went 2-4 with an RBI and 2 runs scored. Edward Guzman went 1-3. Ranser Amador went 1-4 with a steal and an RBI. Rookie Davis (rehab) threw 4.0 hitless innings with a walk and 4 strikeouts. Omar Conoropo allowed a run in 3.0 innings with a strikeout. Marvin Mateo threw a hitless inning with 2 strikeouts. 7/7 Game Preview Team 1st half 2nd half Time (ET) Probable Box Score Listen Live Watch Live Louisville 34-49 N/A 6:30pm Lopez Here Here Here Pensacola 30-38 11-4 7:05pm Gutierrez Here Here Here Daytona 37-29 8-6 12:35pm TBA Here Here N/A Dayton 31-37 8-8 7:05pm Greene Here Here Here Billings 8-14 0-0 9:35pm Sceroler Here Here N/A Greeneville 5-10 0-0 6:30pm Diaz Here Here N/A AZL Reds 4-12 0-0 OFF OFF Here N/A N/A 37 Responses kevinz July 7, 2018 Hope all is well Shed prayers with you for sure. Nice keep it going Garcia. Keep showing them it takes time. when you do not play for awhile even if are Young. kevinz July 7, 2018 I realize they get too in spring training but Dilson a smart fella. First game sat chatted with Suarez that can only further help his career. Peraza always around Suarez talking that seems to helped. Great seeing that type of stuff glad learning from players with better approaches. Glad SISHing style to hitting is gone for the most Part. David Trice July 7, 2018 Scott Moss: 1st 8 starts – 38.2 IP, 11 BB, 33 K. 6.05 ERA. Last 7 starts – 38.2 IP, 11BB, 32 K. 1.16 ERA. Go figure. AirborneJayJay July 7, 2018 Scott Moss back to being Scott Moss. A very positive development. Reds need a LHer for that next wave. Mark July 7, 2018 I think it’s time to promote moss and packy to the next level MK July 7, 2018 Not sure Packy is ready. He has had some good games but they have been happening consistently yet. I am sure they will become but he still needs work that the competition level in Dayton is appropriate for his continued improvement.. Norwood Nate July 7, 2018 Since Doug is going to release his list here on Monday, I thought I would compile my own list for comparisons sake. We’ll see how I stack up. 1. Senzel, 2. Greene 3. Trammell, 4. T. Stephenson 5. India 6. Santillan 7. Long 8. Gutierrez 9. Siri 10 Downs 11. Fairchild 12. Garcia 13. Gray 14. Lopez 15. Richardson 16. Mella 17. Friedl 18. Herget 19. Clementina 20. M. Hernandez 21. Moss 22. Marinan 23. Siani 24. Nay 25. Isabel Greenfield Red July 7, 2018 Your list looks pretty good to me. I think I’d flip #4 and #6. I also think Siri will drop until his plate discipline improves. Norwood Nate July 7, 2018 I could see Siri dropping a bit, but probably not more than a couple spots. His defense in CF, speed, and ability to hit for power at that position is why I rank him high. If the hit tool/plate approach comes around his ceiling is just so much higher than someone like Fairchild. I wouldn’t argue with flipping #4-#6 in any order. Finding a good hitting catcher is rare, and Stephenson seems to have shown he has a good plate approach with good pop. That’s why I rank him #4. If India sticks at SS that improves his value in my eyes. I would also like to see how Santillan transitions to AA. MK July 7, 2018 He has had a walk the last two game. Kinda figured there might be a celebratory balloon release this morning. Stock July 7, 2018 Good list. You have Mella and Herget in your top 18. My list has Clementina and Siani. You have Moss, Nay and Isabel in your top 25. I have Cash Case, Debby Santana, Rainey, Rey and Sugilio. Like your list though. Biggest surprise for me is that Friedl is so low. Norwood Nate July 7, 2018 I’ve mentioned this before, but I really do look at tiers. For me the top 7 probably comprise Tier 1 and 1A. The top three are on a separate level than the other 4, but those 4 are a pretty big step above the next tier. My 2nd Tier probably goes to through #13. These are guys I believe in the tools but would also like to see a little more from a consistency and production standpoint. Also as an aside, I’m not sure where to rank Richardson, so for now I’m deferring to the Reds scouting department where they obviously think pretty highly of him. Most of the guys after #13 are high upside but largely unproven guys or guys I can see carving out a role on the big league team in the near future (Lopez, Mella, Friedl, Herget). Some of those other guys you mentioned were considered for this spot, especially Sugilio, and I would probably rate in this same tier. As far as Friedl, I toyed with having him anywhere from 14-18, but for me it comes down to how I project him. I see him filling a 4th OF’er role in the future, while I believe Lopez/Mella could still emerge as back end starters. That role is more valuable to me than 4th OF which is why I ranked them as I did (and the fact that the other two are now in AAA). Stock July 7, 2018 Great post Norwood. Here is my perspective. I agree the first 3 are all alone and I would not be surprised if all three were top 10 prospects next winter. That may be pushing it for Trammell though. My next group is Siri, India, Santillan and Stephenson. All have a downside. Will Stephenson hit enough to be more than an average ML catcher. .801 OPS in Daytona is not bad but I am not sure that translates to the show. India has yet to prove himself and his K/BB ratio in college was not stellar. His upside will soar though if he can play SS. Siri has a K problem or a BB problem or both depending upon the day. He got hurt in ST and I still don’t think he is 100%. In spite of his K problem, BB problem and injury his OPS since June 19 is .843. I think it takes someone like Siri more time to get his timing and feel that between July 20 and YE his OPS will be north of .850. This and his defense and his speed make him a better prospect than Stephenson for sure and India for now. Santillan is the tough one for me. His ceiling isn’t as high as Siri or even India if he can play SS. As a pitcher there is much more injury risk too. But he has a better chance of being a #2 SP than Siri has of being an all-star CF or India has of being an all-star SS. I put him #6. Maybe he should be #4 though. But for now for me: 4. Siri 5. India 6. Santillan 7. Stephenson Friedl/Fairchild They are the same age. Friedl has always been one or more levels above Fairchild. Friedl OPS in Dayton last year > Fairchild’s this year. Friedl OPS in Daytona last year > Fairchild’s this year. I just think Fairchild’s ceiling is as a #4 OF where Friedl has the chance to start. I seem to be giving quite a few players in my top 25 passes thus far. India (ranked #5), Richardson (#13) and Siani (#14) have little to no playing time professionally. Lopez (#18) is hitting .200 but giving him a pass for not playing 2 years. Debby Santana (#20) is hitting .183 but is 17 and playing in the USA and he hit 3rd in AZ last night. Finally Siri gets a pass because of his injury. Siri had an OPS of .871 in Dayton last year. The only CF who has a higher OPS in the majors this year is Mike Trout. Just for comparison sake, here are players I am pretty sure were at one time top 100 prospects (Mike Trout (1.071), Cody Bellinger (.815), George Springer (.760), Starling Marte (.762), Michael Conforto (.723), Andrew Benintendi (.855), Michael Taylor (.693), Mallex Smith (.714), Billy Hamilton (.609), Jackie Bradley (.630), Adam Jones (.740) and Lewis Brinson (.570)) Lorenzo Cain (.832) and Aaron Hicks (.871) should be added as two of the best CF bats currently in the majors. I feel Siri’s floor = Fairchild’s ceiling. Norwood Nate July 7, 2018 I think what you’re saying makes sense. Thanks for sharing and playing along. Rankings are subjective for everyone to a degree, especially those of us who don’t get to see these guys a lot (if at all). So I don’t worry too much about exact positioning or even who is necessarily ranked after a certain point. I do set the bar for “good hitting” a little lower for a catcher, but I believe Stephenson’s upside is very good hitting catcher. I realize I’m probably higher on him than others will be. I think at this point I would have Fairchild slightly ahead of Friedl because I think he will have a little more pop. Enough, probably, that he could slide over to a corner. But Friedl has continued to produce as he’s moved up, and that’s yet to been for Fairchild. I don’t view them much differently as prospects at this point. Joe July 7, 2018 Jim Callis said reds spent all but $420 of there draft allowance.. the Indians somehow spent it all but $1. MikeD July 7, 2018 Hoping the best for Shed! Interested in thoughts from Doug and anyone that has firsthand knowledge of 3 different guys. (ML) Is Nick Howard moving back toward prospect level? Obviously relief pitchers get less love, but in current day baseball, relief pitchers are gold. With his ability to throw strikes, I’m interested in his skills at this point? Jose Garcia is certainly coming to life and it seems to have coincided with moving in the leadoff spot. ML and even Duke, you guys seems to see a lot of games in person, is he looking like a guy that will be a star down the road, or just a decent MLB’er. Not that, that would be bad. Lastly, Ready Ventura seems to be flourishing since his promotion. Did he come from the Braves in the Phillips trade? I understand he is fast and that helps, but is he a Billy H. type hitter that will struggle as he progresses against better and stronger pitching? Definitely an intriguing player performance wise right now. I kind of fear that Bob Castellini is going to hold back the front office from making trades now that the Reds are winning. I love how the Reds are playing and I am hoping they play themselves into the WC picture, but they need to continue to maximize the trade pieces they have. I believe they can do both. I almost could see Bob telling them to hold on to Harvey just because they are winning, even knowing he will not stay next season. Shamrock July 7, 2018 What do you realistically expect to get for Matt Harvey? (i wouldn’t think too much) If we make a competitive offer at the end of the year why would you think he would refuse to resign with Cincinnati? MikeD July 7, 2018 I think pitching is always critical at deadline time and if Harvey has 2 more good starts, some team will see value. The Yankees have fears about their starters and they have a chance to compete for the championship, so those type a situations can be opportunities to pick up a top 8 to 15 prospect. My opinion is that the Reds would not offer nearly what Harvey is going to want if he finishes well. Also, I don’t believe the Reds can give him a QO, so they will get nothing when all is said and done. Reaganspad July 7, 2018 We do so bad with free agents. The last one was Coco Codero who we overpaid to get to come to Cincy. I would totally be in negotiation with Harvey. And I would go beyond a short term deal. He has done the glitz, had the surgery, and now is part of a team who has turned the boat around. Plus, he is our free agent which means no compensation to sign. If he is your #1 April of 2019, your Reds rotation gets better. If a long term contract, cannot include a no trade clause. He has been hurt, he has to give on something. I think Harvey is having the season we hoped Homer would have MK July 7, 2018 Everybody in Phillips trade has been released. Randy Ventura came from Braves for International Cap money in mid 2017. What is surprising about him is his recent infield play which is something new this season. Garcia has seemed to flourish in lead-off spot. He has all the tools and body but has had other hot streaks hopefully this one will lead to more consistency. MikeD July 7, 2018 Thanks ML! Redsvol July 7, 2018 4 of the top 40 picks in the 2018 mlb draft went unsigned. Not sure we’ve seen this many high picks go unsigned. Strategy to get more picks in next year’s draft or teams simply don’t think the players were worth the slot’s value? RedsKoolAidDrinker July 7, 2018 Would love to see/ hear an interview with Nick Howard re: the mental side that he’s dealt with. Tom July 7, 2018 If you’re the Braves with such a loaded system and a long window opening up, might seem oddly appealing to have two picks next year. Bill July 7, 2018 It was reported that a medical issue (wrist injury) caused the Braves to drop their offer significantly to Stewart. With the others, it would be interesting to understand if there were any trends in why they turned down what were legitimate offers to attend college; you would think both sides would have a framework for an agreement in place before they were drafted. wes July 7, 2018 Seems like a decent strategy this year. You still have to offer a minimal amount to get a player to sign to get a pick the following year. As for Braves- they are doing an outstanding job drafting prep arms in first round. I believe they were all in on Stewart and the injury made them change their plans. Colorado Red July 7, 2018 from what I have read, and the internet never lies. The offer has to be 40% of slot. Seems a bit on the low side. Wes July 7, 2018 Just another way owners use players. MikeD July 7, 2018 I think it could be a reasonable strategy to not sign a player and go heavy in what may be a better draft. Not sure all the rules, but how does pool money work and could this push the 1st pick by the Reds further down? That would seem unfair, though in the end it will hurt the Reds. redlegs4ever July 7, 2018 As long as the Braves offered Stewart at least 40% of his slot value of 4,980,700 then they receive the next overall selection (9th in this case) in next years draft. They will lose the money from this years pool but whatever the slot value of the 9th pick is next year will be added to their 2019 pool. In terms of what this does for the Reds, if the Reds finish with the 9th worst record or better then yes it does push their pick down 1 in the 1st round. wes July 7, 2018 GM for the day (washington nationals)- I trade Harper vs trying to go for it this year. They have a great young nucleus that you can build around and it seems like Harper wants a bigger market to play in vs resigning in DC. I get as much for him as possible, get younger, and build for immediate future. As a buyer- you get first negotiation rights him. If you finish strong and he contributes and it increases your chances of keeping him. If you can get Puig/Buehler OR Tucker/Bukauskas those are good starts to a nice package and that would also revive player value on the trade market. Stock July 7, 2018 I think Harper stays in DC this summer and then signs with them this winter with an opt out after 3 years. Stock July 7, 2018 Harvey has had 3 good starts in a row. Needs more than that for me to extend him at ace money. Shamrock July 7, 2018 Whoever said that he warrants “Ace $$$” ? I’d offer him a 3yr extension (w/ a club option yr) in the $50M range today. Worst he can say is an emphatic “No!!”……..@ which point we’ll at least know where we stand before we trade him off for a couple of lottery tickets….. KyWilson1 July 7, 2018 I don’t think he sniffs that kind of money this offseason. 2y/20m would seem about right for him. He still has to prove he is healthy enough to last a full year. Joe July 7, 2018 Former reds rule 5 pick Jake cave looking like billy in centerfield these days.. I always liked him thought b good 4th of guy .this is who Friedl reminds me of ytrewq July 7, 2018 It’s great to see Rookie Davis has found a home where he can excel, with the Arizona Reds. As I recall, he was pretty good in the low minors when he first entered pro baseball.