Notes on Lyon Richardson, John Ghyzl, & Randy Ventura Doug Gray July 12, 2018 59 Comments Lyon Richardson, the Cincinnati Reds 2nd round draft pick, took the mound for Greeneville on Wednesday night for his fourth career start. It would be his best start of his young career. The 18-year-old didn’t allow an earned run in 3.0 innings. He also didn’t walk a batter and he struck out four. (video below is NOT from this outing) His first outing of the year saw him allow four earned runs in an inning of work. That blew up his ERA, and it’s still recovering from there. He’s been working with a limited pitch count, which is expected as an 18-year-old directly out of high school. In his last three outings he’s given up just two earned runs in 6.0 innings with eight strikeouts. Assuming that he remains on a 5-day schedule, and the weather cooperates, I should see him in Greeneville on Monday. I’ve been holding off on writing up a report on him because he only threw one inning the first time I saw him and I was hoping to get another look. John Ghyzel exits with an injury John Ghyzel has been the closer for the Dayton Dragons most of the 2018 season. The right hander had 16 saves entering the game on Wednesday night in Dayton. His velocity dipped in the game, throwing his last two pitches at 90 and 88 MPH and he was pulled from the game. Ghyzel usually throws anywhere from 93-97 MPH. After the game it was announced by the Dragons that he left due to biceps tendonitis and that it is not thought to be serious. John Ghyzel was lifted due to bicep tendonitis…not thought to be anything serious. — Dayton Dragons (@DragonsBaseball) July 12, 2018 Randy Ventura playing well in Daytona Last year the Cincinnati Reds acquired Randy Ventura from the Atlanta Braves in exchange for international signing period cap space. He spent the final month of the year with the Dayton Dragons, hitting .276/.342/.400 in 26 games played before the season came to an end. He would miss nearly the entire first half of the year this season. And when he returned the Reds sent him back to Dayton, essentially as a short rehab assignment. Ventura was only there for seven games before he was promoted to Advanced-A to join the Tortugas in Daytona. In the three weeks since Randy Ventura joined Daytona he’s hit quite well. He’s gone 24 for 71, good for a .338 average. He’s also walked seven times with just 11 strikeouts. The bat has played well with the promotion. Perhaps what has been more interesting is that when he got to Daytona, the Reds transitioned him to second base. In the 17 games he’s played in the field, only three of them have been in the outfield – where he’s played for his entire career dating back to 2015 as a 17-year-old. 59 Responses Simon Cowell July 12, 2018 Just what we need. Another star at second base. Shamrock July 12, 2018 I haven’t been too impressed defensively with Suarez at 3B this season. A. I love Scooter B. 3B is Nick Senzel’s best/most natural position Eugenio is still kinda young, athletic, and he has exhibited a pretty strong arm from 3B……is there any way that his defensive skills may profile well for a move to RF this coming spring!? CP July 12, 2018 What about Schebler? Shamrock July 12, 2018 Schebler is a good #4 Of in my book. He’s the same age as Scooter, so it’s not like he’s a prospect anymore. And, projection/productivity wise Scheb is not on the same level as Scoot, Senzel, Suarez. So i propose 2B- Scooter 3B- Senzel RF- Suarez LF- unload Duvall. Platoon Winker and Scheb (while also letting these two backup CF/RF/1B…. CP July 12, 2018 Schebler a #4 outfielder?? His current stat line is .279, .353, .473, .826. He has good athleticism in the outfield and is good in the bases. I have to respectfully disagree with you on this one. I don’t see that as a #4 I see him as a starter in the OF that most teams would love to have! citizen54 July 12, 2018 LOL Schebler is already an above average right fielder. But ya, let’s take a guy with all star production at third base and move him to right field where he can replace an above average right fielder all because we want to keep a guy who has been outperforming his stats at second base. MK July 12, 2018 Not sure if I platoon left handed Winker with left handed Schebler. Alex Reds July 12, 2018 I’d first prefer to trade Gennett for a top 100 prospect and proceed with Suarez and Senzel at 2B/3B. Senzel has 6 more years of control, prime years and is projected to be a franchise player while being cost controlled for a long time. Gennett has a high BABIP leading to some regression, albeit maybe remaining a .300 hitter, his OBP isn’t that high though when considering walks. His age, the Reds stack of prospects at 2B and his large upcoming contract arent an ideal fit for resigning him. Reds have wasted a fair amount of money so it’s easy to make a case that Gennett should be signed vs. the failed or unlucky injuries for where they have spent money. Reds have extremely limited funds vs competing teams with Votto stuck for another 6 or so declining years, those funds need to go towards pitching as an extreme need or resigning the pitchers/franchise players that do develop. A strong case can be made to extract the tremendous value of Suarez/Senzel and trade one of Suarez or Senzel for a top 15 prospect elite projection and high floor CF/#2 starter or MLB proven young major league #2 starter type with 4+ year’s of control. AlphaZero July 12, 2018 I don’t think trading Suarez or Senzel is really the right choice if the Reds intend to compete in the 2019-2021 window that’s about to open up. Deal Gennet and Harvey. Trade Iglesias only if you’re blown away. Look to upgrade CF and find a backup plan at SS that is maybe a year or so away in case Peraza never really finds any consistency. Then go out and acquire 1 or 2 quality SPs via trade or FA. It’s all easier said than done, but I think that has to be the strategy to maximize Votto’s last few years of real effectiveness. Norwood Nate July 12, 2018 I don’t think you trade Suarez at all, and you only trade Senzel for a top of the rotation starter with at least 3 years of control. I think the loss of Senzel’s offense can be mitigated somewhat by his replacement (Herrera, Long, India, Gennett in the short term) and the value of adding a frontline pitcher to lead the Reds into a competitive window would be worth the trade off to me. The Reds only have to trade Harvey at this deadline. Get something for him and getting Stephenson up in his place would be the best situation for the Reds. Try to trade Gennett while his value is high, but only for good value. A trade can be revisited in the offseason. Same with Iglesias except the value price for him should be more. Over the offseason spend money on a starter. I know he’s about to turn 33, which means less for a pitcher, but I’d love for the Reds to target Gio Gonzalez as a FA. Maybe a 3 year deal with an option? The Duke July 12, 2018 I’m on board throwing some money at Dallas Keuchel. Heavy ground ball pitcher with a track record. If we could get him for something like 4 years, $100 million, that’d be ideal Shawn July 12, 2018 I would try to find a long term SS in one of the trades and move Peraza to CF. If Perazas bat regresses we have several options getting close to major league ready. There are no SSs close to being ready. Tom July 12, 2018 Adding Kuechel or Gonzalez may cost 20-25 per year, but it is a process that purely adds talent. No subtraction needed like with trades. In order to vault into contention, this franchise needs to add talent and stay stocked up. donny July 12, 2018 NO way would i go after Dallas Keuchel and his 90 mph fastball finesse kind of pitcher at the age of 30. Who i believe is going down hill. With a life time ERA of 3.68. Who is having one of his worst years. That’s how i feel about that. Alex July 12, 2018 I agree that Dallas is not the answer. He had one good year his others were never anything as special. I’m afraid he will cost way more than he is worth. I’m also not a fan of peraza in cf. I think I remeber when Doug posted the reds sprint times the top 3 guys were billy, Phillip Ervin, ten schebler. So peraza having above avg Speed would still be slow for a center fielder. MK July 12, 2018 Gennett’s throwing defense is so weak he gave back a couple runs this week defensively. IIt is close that he shouldn’t be part of relay plays. The Duke July 12, 2018 I was at the Dragons game and Ghyzel was mostly 95-97 until those last couple of pitches. Looked real good. Hopefully this is only a temporary setback. MK July 12, 2018 I just hope he wasn’t diagnosed by Dr. Kremchek. it hard to remember the number of times he has said it isn’t serious and it ended in season ending surgery. The Duke July 12, 2018 I’ve said it a hundred times and i’ll say it a hundred more. Trading Suarez would be straight lunacy. 7 year deal that averages under $10 million a year for a guy who has a .950+ OPS this year. Plus, he is genuinely excited to be in Cincinnati. I wouldn’t be totally opposed to trading Senzel if it brought back a top of the rotation pitcher with multiple years of control like Noah Syndergaard. I’m not trading Senzel unless I get the TOR arm though. Bill July 12, 2018 Exactly! Watching the games, you can also see how the young Latino players gravitate to Suarez. He’s a performer, a leader, on a team friendly long-term contract and loves being a Cincinnati Red. He’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Harvey moves to the highest bidder. Others such as Iggy, Gennett, Hughes, Hernandez are available in a trade that brings back value and fill team needs for starting pitching, CF, or greater minor league depth to underpin long-term success. Prospects available should be available in a trade that brings in a controllable front-line starter for a reasonable return; otherwise we shop on the FA market. But Suarez stays put–he’s currently the best player on the team and is vital to bringing a competitive team back. redleggingfordayz July 12, 2018 Could not agree more on all of this. Suarez needs to stay put unless we are going to get something insane like Archer and Snell back in a trade, which clearly is never going to happen. He is a building block for the future and I still cannot believe he signed that extension with the Reds. Well done by the FO. The Duke July 12, 2018 That’s because anyone in their right mind know Suarez isn’t helping traded and to do so would be straight stupidity. The same reason why there aren’t a bunch of articles about the Nationals trading Juan Soto. wes July 12, 2018 Most teams contending would prefer Machado to Suarez. Most teams will want the superstar with chance to sign him in offseason. However, a team like the Braves would probably prefer Suarez to Machado bc his contract fits in great with their structure and their long term plan. If Reds could get a package like Allard/Anderson with either Pache/Wentz/Toussaint I would trade Suarez in a 1/2 a heart beat. Colt Holt July 12, 2018 No way I trade Suarez for Prospects. If he moves, I only move him for established controllable players (like deGrom/Thor combo) in a position of need. Looking at prospects, you are unlikely to get all star production for 3 years…if you hit on one, you get less out of them than you would have Suarez. If you hit on two, you might break even. Hard to come ahead when dealing a cost controlled all star for unproven prospects. Stock July 12, 2018 Wes, I have to disagree with you. Very few teams would prefer Machado over Suarez. Suarez has much more trade value than Machado. It is not even close. Half the teams would trade their farm for Suarez and the Reds should say no. There are a few attractive farms out there. The Braves farm is worth more than Suarez. But teams like Seattle and Arizona have farms that I would not trade for Suarez. This is how valuable I think Suarez and his contract is. If the Reds want Machado they could trade Senzel for him straight up. Suarez would cost more than Senzel. Wes July 12, 2018 Stock, If u make a trade in July it’s in an attempt to win WS first and foremost. Acquiring the best talent is essential to do that. Machado is head and shoulders above Suarez. So teams would acquire Machado, at a lesser price, and attempt to resign Machado in offseason vs spending WAY more to acquire Suarez. So u get a better player for less. Every large market team would take Machado. Teams like Braves/Cardinals/As may lean Suarez bc they know they can’t afford Machado this offseason. Bill July 12, 2018 While I agree Machado is a slight notch ahead of Suarez if properly used, I’m not sure why you think any team would not jump to trade for Suarez over Machado at this point. – Suarez: 3.4 WAR, .977 OPS, 161 OPS+, controlled for this year + 6 more on an very team friendly contract – Machado: 2.4 WAR (in fairness, he’s showing -1.4 defensive WAR as a SS, so let’s assume he breaks even at 3B so ~3.8 WAR?), .957, 163 OPS+; FA after this season and likely gets a record/near record contract Machado has the track record, so again, he’s preferred based on his baseball merits, but today they are about as close as two players can be. Suarez easily wins favor based on his contract. Suarez is one of the top 30 players in baseball right now and certainly in the top 3 or 4 3B–and it’s a strong group at the top. It’s really hard to imagine that any front office would trade an affordable Top 30 MLB player for a couple of Top 50 prospects + 1 extra decent prospect. Stock July 12, 2018 Wes, Offensively they are the same player and you can argue that Suarez is slightly better. I said most because if a team (Dodgers) doesn’t need a 3B and needs a SS they would prefer Machado. Both are averaging exactly 1 HR every 4 games. Suarez leads in ISO .263 vs. .260 Suarez leads in BB% 11.7% vs. 10.5% Suarez leads in OPS .976 vs. .956 Machado leads in BA .314 vs. .312 But look how close they are and tell me why Machado is clearly the superior offensive player. They are as close to identical as you can get. If this is true you look at other things. Machado has more flexibility on defense. The Dodgers like this. But Suarez may very well have the best contract in baseball. Everyone loves this. Impossible to convince me that Machado has more trade value than Suarez. And your argument about signing Machado holds no water. Any team can sign him and has as good a chance as anyone. Very few players have the trade value of Suarez. Maybe Acuna, maybe Trout. Not Clayton Kershaw, Cody Bellinger or Cory Seager. Not Francisco Lindor. Not Aaron Judge or Luis Severino. Surely not Brice Harper. Not Kris Bryant or Anthony Rizzo. Not Mookie Betts or Andrew Benintendi. Not Jose Altuve or Alex Bregman. Alex July 12, 2018 This was on MLBtraderumors chat today. Mr. Todd, even though he’s very unlikely to be traded, I need to know what would it take to get Nolan Arenado to Atlanta right now? Allard, Gohara, and Pache? More? Less? Jeffrey Todd 4:30 Way more. Just … way, way more. Even though arenado is surely a better player he only has one year left and they think Nolan is worth way more than that package Alex July 12, 2018 Machado isn’t even a SS he is the worst rank Defensive SS in the majors! I Wonder if teams trading for him really want to use him at SS or 3rd. Wes July 12, 2018 It’s not my opinion- all of Major League Baseball agrees. The lead on mlb.com every day isn’t who’s going to trade for Suarez and Alex just stated below that instead of Suarez atl is wanting Arenado who is also head and shoulders above Suarez. Love u guys but I’ll agree with consensus of baseball. Kindell July 12, 2018 I am trying to not reply or comment on them anymore because it stresses me out lol. Suarez is one of the best players in the game with one of the best contracts in the game. Most importantly, he wants to win here. He is no a trade chip, he is a building block. victor vollhardt July 12, 2018 To Kindell—you are right on!! Joe July 12, 2018 My opinion is u can’t trade Suarez he will be the face of the franchise next yr.. along with Votto still which is awesome he still ops’ing the way he is at almost 35yrs old.around the time he got his contract was when a lot of big contracts were handed out to the pujols n prince fielders of th world we definitely got the best bang for buck and looks like Votto might actually still b relevant his last couple yrs under control instead of a sunken cost black hole kevinz July 12, 2018 value for each player is different along with what to really expect in return. Suarez: Most valuable player we have, would fetch the most Value in a trade. MLB players with Value usually only receive Top Ranked Prospects not MLB players. Scooter: Valued more to the Reds than is on the Market. Would Fetch a Lottery Ticket or 2 . A rising 15 ranked prospect in a System seems what his worth is. Iggy: Value less with relievers galore even with his Control on contract. He would receive 5 Through 15 prospect in a System with how The market playing. Senzel: Trading him Now when has Lowest Value is not a smart Play IMO. Shawn July 12, 2018 I think Scooter would return a couple prospects around top 10 depending on farm system. Saying no Iglesias would only return a top 5 thru 15 prospect from an organization is silly kevinz July 12, 2018 I agree with the Scooter one that why said about a High riser. A Prospect who was ranked 15th but Top 10 in the newer Rankings. I doubt get a heist deal for a Closer the market different now. The only way see it Happening is with a badly Ranked Farm System. Bill July 12, 2018 Kevin, I think you are undervaluing Scooter. I think he will be the #2 target after Machado. Do you tee a better middle infielder available? Brewers, Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers and Indians could all use an upgrade on their infield. Only one will get Machado. There are some other one-year players available, but I don’t think their 2 year performance measures up to Scooter. While the Reds don’t need to trade him, there is clear demand/competition at this position which should drive the price up. kevinz July 12, 2018 I would never undervalue scooter just going along with what market is. merrifield for KC has more value as well he more versatile than scooter. He can play CF as well as 2nd base. The better teams with the better Systems will not shell out what you or us computer GM’s will want. Bill July 12, 2018 I agree, Merrifield would get a better return. But, with 4 seasons of control after this one, I would be surprised to see him available. kevinz July 12, 2018 True bill i just seen the Phils all over him and Britton. Alex July 12, 2018 Dylan floro got a top 20 dodger prospect. Scooter has to give a top 100 MLB guy at least or he isn’t worth trading yet . kevinz July 12, 2018 All teams need Pitching so value is higher that Why got what we got for Floro. If were up to me I want the best player can get. I am just going by the market at this time. If The market Changes then better the deals. Pitching harder to find than a 2nd baseman so there Value will always be Higher. Bob Anderson July 12, 2018 I would trade him for a mlb ready arm. He commands that price. The others do not. AirborneJayJay July 12, 2018 Good news on Richardson. Staring to establish a track record. Good to hear about Ventura. I had been wondering what the back story was on him and where he came from. Have seen his name frequently on the game summaries. A good get from the Braves organization. Bad news/ good news on Ghyzel. Hope it is a temporary thing. He was making quite the name for himself. Doc July 12, 2018 I don’t trade Suarez, especially for a pitcher who is one pitch away from being another Homer Bailey and a zero return for a star. Remember that Bailey did not get hurt in the his first few seasons in the big leagues. If teams are willing to trade TOR proven studs with multiple years of control, it is for a reason, and that reason is not going to be a charitable contribution to the Reds. A revolving door of trading stars for prospects is a revolving door between fourth and fifth place in the division. Stock July 12, 2018 Bailey was hurt consistently prior to 2012. Spent a lot of time on the DL. Champ Summers July 12, 2018 Randy Ventura is a tiny little person. My wife goes to games with me and I’m not sure what she really pays attention to if anything. He caught her eye. She said that’s a tiny guy. Then went back to whatever it is she does at baseball games. MikeD July 12, 2018 Champ, that may have been one of the best post I’ve seen in some time! Make sure you protect her! LOL! SoCalRedsFan July 12, 2018 Anybody that’s advocating for the Reds to trade Suarez just needs to stop. You’re talking crazy and need to see a mental health professional. Colt Holt July 12, 2018 Would you trade Suarez for Trout? Ohtani? How about both? There is a price for everyone. For Suarez , that price is incredibly high. To say no way would be irresponsible. victor vollhardt July 12, 2018 To–Colt Holt—need to read Kindell”s post above. But it always takes courage(and smarts) to build through your own plan and follow it through. If successful the rewards will be great—and everybody will say they were on board from the very beginning—-if not successful they will say they knew it would fail from the start. To stay the course and follow your own counsel is where the courage comes in. MikeD July 12, 2018 The fact that Suarez is getting better with each passing season and couple that with an incredible contract, I would not trade him straight up for Machado. The move to short has not shown Machado to be a shortstop and maybe the Reds knew that would be the case with Suarez. I believe Suarez will be one of the top players for the next 5 to … years and yet he will not get national recognition. I honestly do not know what the Reds should do about Senzel, Scooter and now Herrera. Schebler has proven to be a solid everyday player and definitely not a 4th outfielder. I am even happier about Billy these days, but he can still frustrate me at times. Duvall for all his struggles, has certainly been productive, so it is hard to be critical of any of the Red’s first 10 players. The Allstar break is needed for the bullpen and maybe even the young pitchers. As much as there’s no room for a bad Homer, I am hoping he figures things out and is able to give the Reds some decent starts. Yeah, I know… So what does this team need? If you go out and get a TOR, I suppose that makes sense, but I believe they just need the young pitchers to gain experience and pitch to their talent level. Offer Harvey 3 at 44 and if he turns it down, trade him to the Yankees. Shawn July 12, 2018 With all the arm injuries he has suffered and a couple surgeries, there is no way I would offer him a long term contract Bob Anderson July 12, 2018 I would trade him for a mlb ready arm. He commands that price. The others do not. There is no room for him to get better, he has topped. Doc July 12, 2018 Given Stock’s comment about Bailey’s history, and noting that deGrom and Syndegaard have each made DL appearances in their young careers as two examples of pitchers who have been mentioned in these blogs, it just bolsters my opinion even more that I would not trade a star, I guess I can now say All Star, young player like Suarez for a TOR pitcher. Too much risk in pitching. Of course I am old school, Crosley Field old school, and I wouldn’t give a pitcher more than about a three year deal. No statistis to base it on, just wanting to limit my losses, at least until they put the mound back to the height it was in Bob Gibson’s glory days. Bred July 12, 2018 Good Havens, if the mound was what it was when I was a kid no hitters would be common as a pitcher might get 27 Ks. Different time, and as odd as it is as people say baseball is the same as it always was, they were not around in the 50s thru 70s. Still 27 outs but not the same game. Joe July 12, 2018 Jonathan India with a 2run hr!! Knocks in Siani I-71_Exile July 12, 2018 Monkey off back. Woo hoo!