Brandon Dixon hits for the cycle, other Reds notes Doug Gray July 18, 2018 68 Comments The Louisville Bats took the field on Tuesday morning in Rochester and nothing seemed special when the game started. The Bats scored four runs in the first inning and things got started with a Brandon Dixon double that brought Mason Williams in from second. In the third inning Louisville would add three more runs to the board, and Brandon Dixon once again was in the mix. He followed a Blake Trahan double with a single – and both would score later in the inning. In the fifth inning, Dixon would lead off and ground out. The offense stalled for a few innings. That meant Brandon Dixon wouldn’t come to the plate again until the top of the eighth inning. He led off the inning with a home run. That left him just a triple shy of the cycle, but it was tough to foresee another trip to the plate at that point. Louisville, however, scored three runs in the inning and sent seven hitters to the plate. Because of that, it meant that he’d come up to the plate in the ninth inning. Needing a triple, the toughest portion of the cycle, Brandon Dixon came through. He crushed a ball into right-center field and showed off his speed, racing around the bases and sliding into third. http://redsminorleagues.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/dixon-cycle.mp4 Taylor Trammell interview with Mo Egger After his MVP Award at the Futures Game over the weekend, Cincinnati Reds outfield prospect Taylor Trammell has been in high demand. That led to him joining local sports radio host Mo Egger on Tuesday afternoon on ESPN 1530. You can listen to the segment below, and I highly recommend it. The stories relayed by Trammell are fantastic. John Sickels Midseason Prospect List Update There’s a new Top 50 prospect list out over at Minor League Ball. John Sickels ranked three Cincinnati Reds inside the top 50, and all actually showed up in the top 25. Nick Senzel showed up at #4 overall on the list. Taylor Trammell showed up next among Reds prospects, coming in at #17. Hunter Greene came in at #21 on the list. The move was upward for all three. The last update came back in May for Sickels list, and had Senzel at #11, Trammell at #28, and Greene at #25. 68 Responses kevinz July 18, 2018 I agree with Sickels list until Greene actually Dominate over time. Pitchers a much bigger risk where Hitters have a better chance on hitting there ceiling. Joe July 18, 2018 I think last nite signed and sealed scooters next contract with the reds. I kno it’s off subject but man how could u not like mike trout th guy is phenomenal, best in th world at what he does and seems so down to earth . Colorado Red July 18, 2018 I also like Scooter. A waiver pick up, and now an all star. What do we do with Nick? I assume he cannot play SS, else he would be. Simon Cowell July 18, 2018 Brandon Dixon is upping his trade value. I would love to see this guy in Cincinnati but there is no room for him. AlphaZero July 18, 2018 I think there’s plenty of room for Dixon on the big club. His K rate will probably always limit his ability to hit for average and he isn’t great at taking a walk. He does have pop and can play the corners and 2B. Sounds like a great bench player to me. Between him and Blandino, I feel pretty good about the IF reserves for the next few years. Doug Gray July 18, 2018 I like Brandon Dixon and all, and I think he’s a big leaguer – but his trade value is at best “throw in” for a trade. Simon Cowell July 18, 2018 Exactly my point Doug. Shamrock July 18, 2018 I vote we either trade or extend Scooter right now (when his value is highest). The question is: if the “extension” rumors are true, how much and how long should we offer up? How comfortable/uncomfortable do you guys feel about offering Scooter the exact same 6yr $72.5m we gave to Phillips a few years back? http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/7796273/cincinnati-reds-brandon-phillips-agree-six-year-contract If you’re the Reds do you make the offer? If you’re Scooter do you accept it?? Too much/too little/too long/too short…..??? Chime in guys!! Norwood Nate July 18, 2018 I didn’t like the Phillips deal when he signed it, and I hated it by the time it was over, especially those last couple of years. Gennett is a bit younger, but 4 year is the absolute max I would give him and that would include his last ARB year. 4 years in the $48-52M range. My preference is still that the Reds trade him, but I would understand their perspective signing an extension of a similar value. SultanofSwaff July 18, 2018 In terms of what the going rate for WAR was at the time, Phillips earned his money, but just barely. I suspect the same will be true for Votto. redleggingfordayz July 18, 2018 Pretty sure Votto is definitely going to earn his contracts worth. By my calculations Votto has earned 23.8 WAR starting from 2014. If we are using the average of 8 mill/WAR, he has “earned” over 190.4 million so far and we are barely halfway through his current contract. Even with regression Joey is going to make his contract worth it in the end (with room to spare I assume). Norwood Nate July 18, 2018 I don’t think Phillips did earn his money his last season. I remember there being a post on RLN where the calculations were made and coming into the last year he was just under what a WAR’s worth per season of his contract. It’s neither here nor there, the contract was too long, that was the issue and the last couple of years he wasn’t worth it. Norwood Nate July 18, 2018 Redleggin, I think the most accurate way to calculate it would be to go by what a WAR is worth for each season and then add those values up. WAR value is not constant and tends to increase over the years. Don’t just calculate based on what WAR is worth today, because when Joey signed the contract in 2012 1 WAR = $6.2M (per fangraphs). redleggingfordayz July 18, 2018 I was really just doing quick estimates Nate. Either way I think it is pretty obvious barring some major injury or crazy regression, Joey Votto is going to far exceed his value on the rest of this contract just based on what he has done already. Wes July 18, 2018 More importantly than how he’s performing is the state of market when he’s traded. Machado is bout to get traded for a fringe top 100 outfielder and a pitcher in a breakout season. His value is higher than scooters and I wouldn’t trade scooter for that package. Mlb has changed the way they sign players. Teams are done paying 10s of millions for washed up late 30 year olds on their roster. If u can’t get him to sign for what nate says or less I’d just keep him and ride out his contract. Then if u need him in 2020 u can always offer him arbitration. Better to pay 17/18 mill for one season in his prime than pay him 12/13 mill for a couple years of declining performances. At the end of the day I think he does not extend nor get traded and prob right move for both parties. Colorado Red July 18, 2018 Scooter has 1 year of Arbitration left. If we do not sign him, we can offer a qualifying offer. probably around 18Mil by then (I think it was a bit for 17 mil this year). If he rejects it, we pick of a first round pick (depending on his contract). I would try to extend him now for about 4 years based on the trade market. MK July 18, 2018 Did not know the we had a vote. Matthew O'Neal July 18, 2018 I don’t think Scooter signs that deal. If he goes into free agency after having another Scooter year in 2019, he *should* get way more that 12 mil/year. Matthew O'Neal July 18, 2018 This is regarding Shamrock’s proposed Scooter deal. MK July 18, 2018 After 38 Hr, 85 RBI think Mike Moustakas thought he could do better than Royals offer? Kindell July 18, 2018 I love Scooter Gennett, but I still think its in the best interest of the team to find the best deal possible. That wouldbe extremely risky of him to wait after 2019 and when he will about to turn 30. The drop off at 30 that people keep talking about is real. There are always going to be outliers, but should the Reds be willing to bet millions that Scooter is an outlier? Remember Chase Utley and just how good he was? That guy put up 5 straight seasons of an OPS over .900 in his age 26-30 seasons. His OPS would never be above .832 after that and that was his age 31 season. Chase Utley was also a much better athlete as well. I think the deal would have to be really friendly for it to be worth it. I just think we have a guy waiting with more control and the ability to give you savings everywhere else. The Reds cannot afford to make another mistake on a longterm deal if they want to compete in the next 5 years. redleggingfordayz July 18, 2018 Kindell is right on the money in my opinion. I just don’t see why you take the risk at Scooter’s current age with so many viable replacements waiting in the wings. Use that money to get some reliable SP and this team could win a lot of games once you have Senzel and Trammell in the lineup everyday. Late 2019 Lineup: 1. Trammell CF 2. Senzel 2B 3. Votto 1B 4. Suarez 3B 5. Schebler RF 6. Barnhart C 7. Winker LF 8. Pitcher 9. Peraza SS To me that lineup is more than good enough to make the postseason and be successful. The only way the Reds make it to the postseason though is if we have an actual reliable SP at the front of the rotation. RedsFaninPitt July 18, 2018 I would listen for offers now – not much trade chatter currently but Cleveland is probably the best fit now that Dodgers will be getting Machado. If you don’t get strong interest, i would wait to look for trade during offseason. I like Gennett, but signing him just doesn’t make sense given all the other options (including your best prospect who’s ready and 2 other very good options – Herrera and Long and even a 3rd decent option – Blandino). IMO Gennett would want at least 4 yrs on a contract. – even if team friendly- and you will likely have a much cheaper option in Senzel heading into his prime years when the team is likely to be heading into its most competitive window in yrs 2-4 of a Gennett contract. I would not extend but hold out for a good return between now and spring training. Norwood Nate July 18, 2018 This is a good point considering the difference in money that would be allocated to Gennett as opposed to Senzel. Let’s say we’re working with something close to 4 years and $52M for Gennett. During those same years Senzel probably makes around a tenth of that in salary (depending on his first ARB season). Senzel will be 27 and Gennett will be 32 at the at end of those 4 years. One is entering his prime and one likely is in decline. Having the money earmarked for Scooter would be nice to have when we’re trying to sign a starting pitcher. Colorado Red July 18, 2018 Not sure Cleveland is a good fit. Willi Castro is probably the best fit, and he is not a top 100 prospect. Greenfield Red July 18, 2018 If trading Scooter to Cleveland, I think the Reds should target Shane Bieber as the centerpiece. His command appears to be off the charts. Colorado Red July 18, 2018 I would love to get him, but he is in the Majors now. And as what was told to me on the last comment, is we are not going to get him. SultanofSwaff July 18, 2018 It’s all irrelevant. Big Bob like Scooter, move on. An therein lies the problem. Let the baseball people make baseball decisions! MikeD July 18, 2018 How can you not love Taylor! Great interview! Rob July 18, 2018 I asked Keith Law in last week’s chat (before the Future’s Game) if he thought that Taylor Trammell was a top 25 prospect and he replied “not even close”. From reading his Insider article it sounded like much of the information he received about TT was from other scouts who were not too high on him. I wonder if the Future Game performance affects his evaluation at all as he was there in person to watch the game and practice. I know that K. Law is not liked too much on this site but I appreciate his insights. KyWilson1 July 18, 2018 Law’s rankings are about as worthless as mine are. I never pay to much attention to what he says. Wes July 18, 2018 Do yourself a favor and cancel your insider subscription and stop getting news from ESPN. DanD July 18, 2018 How can we get starting pitching without making a trade. Love this lineup for 2018 Senzel, rf India, SS Votto, 1b Gennett, 2b Suarez, 3b Winker,rf Trammell, CF Barnhart,c KyWilson1 July 18, 2018 That s a bold jump for India a college 3b, to the majors in 1 season with a position switch…… 3 rookies in the line up, 2 playing new positions would seem like a desperation move. DanD July 18, 2018 I know it’s a bold move. Maybe more of a 2021 lineup but I was thinking India will be around 24 in 2020. Truthfully I see either Senzel or India being a key piece for a starting pitcher. Also, meant to have Winker on LF. If you want to make the lineup even younger for 2021 replace Barnhart with Stephenson. kindell July 18, 2018 I want Senzel at 2B. Votto is getting older and his defense is starting to suffer from it. I much rather have a young athletic guy next to Votto. MK July 18, 2018 2018? SultanofSwaff July 18, 2018 Of the ‘available’ trade candidates I’d target DeGrom and Whit Merrifield (to play CF). For Degrom, I’d offer Mahle+Shed or Dilson+Downs. If they accept, then I DON’T sign him to an extension as his deal ending will dovetail with the arrival of Greene. For Merrifield, I’d offer India and Long. Both trades make the Reds a surefire NL contender in 2019. Billy July 18, 2018 I like how you send “Shed” one direction and “Long” a different direction. Definitely some outside the box thinking. :-) Joe July 18, 2018 Looks like th offer for Merrifield is better or same as th Degrom offer. I think Degrom worth about 3-4 merrifields Colorado Red July 18, 2018 Doubt the Met’s accept that offer. They are looking for a haul, but based on the manny machado trade (rumors), the trade market is not that great currently. redleggingfordayz July 18, 2018 I would say let us wait and see what the Orioles actually get for Machado before saying the “Trade Market isn’t doing great”. We have to keep in mind that we are talking about less than 90 games of Machado at this point, whatever the Orioles get in return is going to come with a lot of years of team control. kevinz July 18, 2018 The market might be Weak but Balt still getting LAD 4th ranked prospect. Then add in getting more players not yet Known. Machado a Beast but could be a Rental plus lose some Prospects to get him. I have heard many People like Diaz over Verdugo so take that for it worth. donny July 18, 2018 First of all, The Mets would never except that trade for Degrom. 2nd of all, the mets or any other team would never take 3 2nd baseman in a trade. 3rd of all, Merrifield, 2 prospects in the 10-15 range in the Reds organization plus another from rookie ball would net Merrifield. I believe Wes July 18, 2018 Fast tracking India to play short? Peraza has 4 years of team control left and is 2.5 years older than India. India will never catch him. By the time India reaches majors peraza will be coming into his prime. One will have to move off position or get traded but it’s hard to think management is looking to replace perazahe’s always been their guy and now he’s putting together a good full season at 24. I think India gets promoted this season but don’t see any rush in getting him to the show w so much competition on the roster. Let him experience a ton of success and find the right spot for him to play. Greenfield Red July 18, 2018 I think a lot of people are sleeping on Jose Peraza. He is becoming a very good major league baseball player. I don’t think the Reds should be trying to replace him. He is coming into his prime kevinz July 18, 2018 That is Fine let them Sleep the Braves and Dodgers already did. Love this team full of players who have something to Prove. Suarez feels slighted from being traded as does Peraza. Scooter from being waived from Brewers plays with a Edge. Schebler from being drafted very late plus Traded. If reds can keep finding these type of players they will be fine. RedsinWashst July 18, 2018 I still think his range is suspect but you can’t have everything. kevinz July 18, 2018 I agree with that. The ball goes through once he has to go to his Left or Right. I am just glad he seems to make the routine play now. I hope this is a real Sign for Jose. He really seems like a really good Guy hope he does well. Thomas July 18, 2018 Forgetting about the two starting pitchers from this years recent draft (as they have a long way to go), I looked at Doug’s top 25 list and picked out the starting pitching candidates that the Reds drafted in recent years: Greene (1st round second overall pick), Santillan (2nd round), Jose Lopez (6th round). The rest are either players acquired from other teams via trades (like Mella) or players acquired from international signings (like Gutierrez). Keeping in mind how high of a pick Greene was (would expect he would be in the top 25), that means the Reds only have other two starting pitchers they drafted on the top 25 list. The other current starting pitchers the Reds drafted are Mahle (7th round), Ramano (23th round), and Robert Stevenson (1st round). They have a few former starting candidates [like Lorenzen (1st round) and Garrett (22 round)], but I guess the Reds see them as relievers now. So other than 18 year old Greene, that means all the organization’s drafting and developing of starting pitchers amounts to Mahle, Ramano, Stevenson with the possibility of Santillian and Jose Lopez helping in the next couple of years. Keeping in mind the Reds have drafted high recently, this seems pretty sobering as a fan. It just seems like the drafting of starting pitchers did not work out well. Realistically, I question whether the Reds can really be successful as a small market team if they can’t do better drafting and developing starting pitching. The Reds seemingly are now forced to trade for starting pitching which is confirmation that their own drafting has not been successful. redleggingfordayz July 18, 2018 Thomas, the Reds have drafted plenty of other pitchers, some of them have gotten injured (Howard, Travesio to name just a few) and others have just not panned out. I think the Reds have drafted pretty darn well the last couple of years and taken the “top talent” out of the draft rather then doing what they used to, which was drafting based on position needed. There are plenty of other teams that have had pitching prospects fall through the gaps. Eventually the Reds will be able to trade some of their depth at position players for pitching. Most front offices have come to follow this line of thinking as well, so I would just wait a bit longer. I think the Reds will start finding long term success sooner rather than later. Justin July 18, 2018 Sign Scooter to a 4 year deal. Move Senzel to CF and trade Hamilton between now and the start of next season. Sign Harvey to a 1 year deal so he can continue his progress toward regaining his status as a front line pitcher, all while anchoring our pitching staff for a legitimate run at the playoffs in 2019. 2019 Lineup 1) Senzel CF 2) Votto 1B 3) Suarez 3B 4) Gennett 2B 5) Barnhardt C 6) Schebler RF 7) Winker LF 8) Pitcher 9) Peraza SS 2019 Rotation 1) Harvey 2) DeSclafani 3) Mahle 4) Castillo 5) Ramano/Stephenson 2019 Top 5 Bullpen Iglesias Hughes Hernandez Garrett Lorenzen 2019 Bench Duvall Herrera Dixon Blandino That looks like a team that makes the playoffs, and it costs two managable extensions and a willingness to move our top prospect into one of the most important defensive positions. jbonireland July 18, 2018 Well everyone has an opinion and yours is as good as anyone’s. I see a couple of things that might not work here. What makes you think Harvey wants a one year contract? At what price do we sign Gennett and for how long? Why bat Peraza ninth, behind the pitcher he is right now a .288 hitter. Taylor Trammell should be ready by the end of 2019, where does he play? With Gennett signed to a long term deal and the outfield seemingly set for the next several years Winker-Senzel-Schebler, doesn’t seem to be anywhere for Trammell. Not saying your idea is good just a lot of questions? Justin July 18, 2018 Harvey was ready for a monster contract before injuries derailed things. I’m guessing that he may only be looking at 1 year contracts anyway because half a season of the “old Harvey” isn’t enough for teams to go all in. Why not stay where you got your revival started to finish proving to the league that you’re back. As for the other issues raised, good teams trade from strength to back fill their system. So if any minor leaguer pushes someone on the major league roster you trade away the odd man out. Peraza in 9th is like having another lead off hitter. Colorado Red July 18, 2018 For Harvey we have to wait and see how the FA works out for him. He might be willing to accept a 1 year bridge contract, when no block busters come by. I am thinking 1 year at 14 Mil, with club option for 14 mil for a 2nd year. 10 win, and it is guaranteed, 12 wins and it is 15 mil 14 wins and it is a player option. (1 or 2 wins either way) Justin July 18, 2018 Also, when India is ready to move up we can trade either him, Scooter or Suarez depending on who helps the team the least because at that point they’re likely all fairly affordable. Colt Holt July 18, 2018 Just saw the latest update to the trade value rankings on fangraphs and saw that they have deGrom and Thor in the top 30. It seems like they have aggressively increased the worth of short term stars (reference Chris sale in the same 21 to 30 grouping. Based on actual trades in recent years, I can’t believe that so many players with so little control would be viewed among the most valuable in the industry. kevinz July 18, 2018 Happy Birthday to Suarez 27 today sure is Fun to watch. His personality might be better than he is a player which very good player by the way lol. kevinz July 18, 2018 I might take heat for this but looking like to me Scooter body breaking down like Cozart. Scooter is sure performing but between his shoulder now Leg. Seems to me a big risk to take for our REDS to sign. Kindell July 18, 2018 I see a lot of comments about the package that the Dodgers are talking to the Orioles about. Most believe that Machado is going to be a rental. It seems that the rumors are a package involving Yusniel Diaz and Dustin May. If that is the case, that is a great deal to me for a rental. Diaz is 21 years old with a .905 OPS in AA. More walks than he has strikeouts. I also like Dustin May a lot. He is still only 20 years old and has a lot of filling out to do in his frame. He continues to get better, but is known for having incredible spin rates. Its no surprise that BAL thinks he is a guy that could end up blowing up over the next couple years. That is a good deal for a team who is going to lose a player anyways. Shawn July 18, 2018 I read somewhere there is supposed to be 5 prospects going to Baltimore Alex Reds July 18, 2018 Totally agree!! So many people on this forum complaining because he isn’t a high top 100 prospect. He might be one of the top 30/50 prospects easily. He just doesn’t get the publicity coming from being low ranked. He’s the real deal so it’s a nice get for the Orioles. I was hoping Scooter would get us Yusniel Diaz Cguy July 18, 2018 Schebler to 10 day DL. Time for Gabby Guererro to get his first taste of the ML. SultanofSwaff July 18, 2018 Ervin is white hot, I would bet he gets the nod. RedsinWashst July 18, 2018 Doesn’t matter because he won’t play when he is called up. Also I don’t think that Guererro is on the 40 is he. kevinz July 18, 2018 Hoping Ervin get a Shot has played the best that he has ever played. It would be Huge if Ervin new stance and swing pays off would add another bat with 5+ years of control. Clammy July 18, 2018 Gabby is not on the 40 man. Ervin and Dixon are. RedsinWashst July 18, 2018 Thanks I really like Dixon but again if he was called up he wouldn’t get any at bats.