You can’t say that the Cincinnati Reds aren’t at least making headlines this offseason. Jon Heyman of Fancred Sports and MLB Network is reporting that the Reds are looking at Cleveland Indians starting pitchers Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, Seattle Mariners starter James Paxton, as well as New York Yankees starter Sonny Gray. Apparently at this point the two teams seem to be asking for the moon, with the names Nick Senzel, Hunter Greene, and Taylor Trammell being spoken of.

Those four pitchers have plenty of differences between them. Corey Kluber has three years remaining on his current contract. The 2020 and 2021 seasons are team options at $17.5M and $18M, with a $1M buyout. In 2019 he’s due $17M. He’s an Ace. A top of the rotation difference maker. Over the last two seasons he’s thrown 418.2 innings with a 2.58 ERA in the American League. He has walked just 70 batters and he’s struck out 487. Domination is the word you would use to describe that kind of performance. But, he’s also owed a good chunk of change. With that said, if he comes remotely close to that kind of performance, he’s worth twice as much as the money he’s owed.

His teammate Carlos Carrasco hasn’t quite been as good. That’s not a knock at all on Carrasco, who has been one of the better pitchers in baseball over the last two seasons in his own right. The 31-year-old has thrown 392.0 innings with a 3.33 ERA between 2017 and 2018. He’s walked just 89 batters and he’s struck out 457. His current contract has him under team controls for the 2019 and 2020 season. His 2020 season is a team option for $9.5M with a $662,500 buyout. In 2019 he’s owed $9.75M.

James Paxton hasn’t been as good as those two guys, but has still been an above-average pitcher. In the last two seasons he’s posted an ERA of 3.40 (121 ERA+) for the Mariners. But, he’s only thrown 136.0 and 160.1 innings in those two seasons. When he’s been on the mound, he’s been good – walking just 79 batters to go with 364 strikeouts in those 296.1 innings. He just hasn’t been able to stay on the mound enough. His current status has him in arbitration for the 2019 and 2020 seasons before becoming a free agent.

Sonny Gray, on the other hand, hasn’t been nearly as good as either of those three pitchers. Over the last three seasons only his 2017 season was one in which he posted an ERA+ better than 89 (meaning he was at least 11% below average). And in none of those seasons did he throw more than 162.1 innings. To top it off, he’s a free agent after the 2019 season. Because he’s arbitration eligible, we don’t know his exact salary. MLB Trade Rumors projects it at $9.1M, and that should be close enough.

When it comes to making trades from the farm system, no one should be untouchable. At least not in the right deal. As we saw earlier this week, though, high end prospects are worth a whole lot. With that said, I wouldn’t even begin to think about trading any of the players mentioned for Sonny Gray. Or, really, any player who is a free agent after 2019.

When it comes to players like Corey Kluber or Carlos Carrasco, things get a bit tougher. They are among the best pitchers in the league. And they are also under control for more than one year. With Kluber you get and additional year, but you also owe him a lot more money. He makes nearly twice as much as Carrasco does per season. Both guys are worth the contract, and in Carrasco’s case, by a ton of money.

With a pitcher like James Paxton there might be a sweet spot between what it could cost to acquire one of the Cleveland pitchers, and what it would cost to acquire Sonny Gray. You may not have to give up one of the big three guys in the system, and could use some of your depth to make things work for Seattle.

If the Cincinnati Reds were in a different position, it may make some sense to gamble that acquiring one of those two Indians pitchers at the price of a Nick Senzel, Hunter Greene, or Taylor Trammell would cost. If the team were already sitting at 87 win talent and that could be the guy that would put them over the top, the math changes. Instead the Reds are sitting at about a 70-win talent standpoint. Acquiring one of those guys doesn’t put them in playoff contention, much less over the top.

DALTON AND GREEN IN 2018 T SHIRT

73 Responses

  1. MK

    Guess I still have confidence in some of the guys in the system continuing to develop who will improve greatly in 2019. I would rather them give up a little less for Gray and keep Matt Harvey. Gray was most successful at small market Oakland. He wouldn’t be the first guy to be less than his best in New York.

    • Stock

      To back your point MK here are two sets of stats for Gray:

      At Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park:

      7.23 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 6.59 K/9, 4.58 BB/9

      Elsewhere:

      2.59 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9.81 K/9, 2.73 BB/9

      Two entirely different pitchers.

      If the Reds could get him without giving up a top 7 prospect I would do it.

      I would pursue Paxton before the other two because he would be much cheaper.

      Personally, I would love to trade Stephenson, Santillan, India, Long and Fairchild for Paxton and Marco Gonzalez and let the Yankees trade Gray to someone else.

      • MK

        Great stats Stock, I was going by personal opinion rather than these stats.

        Off subject but saw that Donald Lutz is playing in the Australian League for Brisbane. Probably not many minor league coaching staffs with active players.

      • Redsvol

        Good post Stock. I tend to agree with you and MK. Hate to give up too much in prospect capital being this far away from 90 wins. I’d prefer a 2nd tier free agent signing or two and one trade for a 2nd tier pitcher like Gray or Robbie Ray that others have mentioned.

        We need multiple starting pitchers and an infusion of position player talent. If we trade Trammel and Senzel (I believe it would take both for Kluber) then we are years away from an elite position player coming from minors. That could damage rebuild significantly. Our outfield minor league talent stinks beyond Trammel.

  2. Oldtimer

    Reds have traded for good SP for a long time. Joey Jay in 1960. Jim Merritt in 1968. Jack Billingham in 1971. Fred Norman in 1973.

    More recently, Jose Rijo in 1980s. Bronson Arroyo and Mat Latos much more recently. John Smiley, David Wells, and Greg Swindell in 1990s.

    • Gaffer

      Most of those were prospects or very early career, not old guys. Smiley was a FA signing.

      • Oldtimer

        Absolutely false. Joey Jay had played 5 years in MLB. Merritt, Billingham similar. Norman was a veteran. Rijo was a prospect, true. Arroyo and Latos were SP in MLB. Wells and Swindell were veterans.

        Smiley was acquired in a trade, I think. I’ll check.

      • Oldtimer

        Smiley was FA indeed. The rest all had 5-10 years experience before traded to Reds except Latos (who had 3 years). Rijo was a prospect when traded for Parker but had MLB experience.

  3. Norwood Nate

    I’d give up the most for Kluber of the group. Definitely interested in Carrasco and Paxton as well but probably not for a top 3 guy. I think I’d consider Trammell as the headliner for Kluber. It’d be a steep price, but you gotta give talent to get talent.

  4. Nep O'Tism

    Doug,

    Do you think the new Fox 7yr/$5.1b and DAZN 3yr/$300m deals recently announced are why the Reds are increasing payroll, or do you think that those deals will increase Reds payroll further?

    • Doug Gray

      The Fox money doesn’t kick in for 4 more years (it was an extension on an already set deal). And that money is only like $7M a year per team.

      I don’t know about the DAZN deal as it relates to baseball, so I can’t speak on that.

      But I think they are increasing payroll because the money is actually there, and has been for the last few years, and Bob finally got tired of the losing and said “we can spend the money now”.

  5. kevinz

    No thanks. Kluber to old plus Reds not at the point, where he would them over the top. Paxton Injury prone not even a 180 inn guy. CC also injury prone rather not gut the farm for that. Rather Reds pay cash for injury prone SP than with Prospects.

    • Oldtimer

      Reds in 1960 were 67-87. They traded All-Star SS Roy McMillan for SP Joey Jay (and Juan Pizarro). They traded SP Cal McLish (and Pizarro) for 3B Gene Freese. They traded All-Star C Ed Bailey for 2B Don Blasingame. They traded RP Orlando Pena for SP Ken Johnson.

      They won NL Pennant in 1961 going 93-61. Frank Robinson and Vada Pinson were the Reds stars but they were on 1960 team also.

      The addition of Jay, Freese, Blasingame, and Johnson helped turn the 67-87 Reds into the 93-61 Reds. Two SP and two starting INF made a huge difference.

      • Optimist

        IIRC Bill James cites the 61 Reds as the most extreme (or only) example of a team trading itself from cellar dwellers into the WS the following year.

        Point being, even with expanded playoffs, it’s a doubtful course to pursue.

      • Oldtimer

        Agreed. Much different in 2019 than 1961. The 61 Reds have Robinson and Pinson in their prime. 2019 Reds will have Votto but past his prime.

        The 61 Reds had lots of P talent in MiLB system. 2019 Reds don’t have MLB ready P talent in 2019.

        1971 Reds won 79 games. 1972 Reds won 95. 1989 Reds won 75 games. 1990 Reds won 91. It can be done.

    • Mike

      Agreed PLEASE no trades of top prospects for any starting pitcher now. We are not close enough for that .. If they have the money BUY one through the free agent market PERIOD. That’s how the game plan should go . The last 5 years have been painful enough without giving up the the top players acquired through the first year player draft for a vet starting pitcher who will be injury prone .. on the downside of his career and force the fans to endure that while waiting for the next set of top prospects to arrive. Trading one of the top three above makes the pain this franchise has had the last 5 seasons just WORTHLESS.

  6. Hoyce

    Kluber for Trammell, India and a shed long type. Maybe lesser pieces at the bottom

    Suarez for gore, urias and a lesser pitcher like paddock or Allen.

    Scooter and Robert Stephenson for Taylor from Dodgers. Kind of a long shot. But I’d ask. And stick Taylor in CF.
    Cut Bham
    Then the reds have the 2 pitchers they were talking about. Urias at 2B. And Senzel at 3B.
    Explore a homer for greinke swap of the dbacks go into firesale mode and if the reds want to spend a lotta $$. I prob wouldn’t do this personally. But would seriously upgrade the rotation without giving up any prospects.
    Kick tires on Eovaldi, pollack and maybe an upper tier RP. – hopefully get 1/3

  7. Ryan

    Would you give up Tammel+Santillan as the headliners for Kluber? Rough math here but replacing him for Bailey would be what, a 10 win swing, maybe more?

    • Ryan

      I will say i think the best choice is going after FA guys on short term deals. One of the 3 Doug pointed out and a rebound candidate. Also a decent free agent set-up guy.

  8. Kap

    How about fulmer? 4 years of control. Younger. Cheaper. Maybe not as good but won’t cost an arm and a leg. India plus some might be good enough to get him

    • Stock

      Why is Fulmer better than Stephenson, Reed, Sims, Mahle, Wisler, Lorenzen or Garrett?

      • Kap

        He won rookie of the Year in the past. He might not have been as good this season but I would say he is a safe bet

  9. Tom

    Cleveland playing chess, Reds playing checkers.

    Look at what Cleveland is doing.

    3 straight Central titles.
    Most everyone coming back under contract for 2019.
    Weak AL Central says they could push another season, or realistically two, to break through to a championship.
    Payroll is well controlled relative to league average.

    They are bailing early to catch all the Reds savings and extend their window. The Reds want to rent 2 years of of relative success for 5 years of terrible baseball, then come through the other side mostly empty handed in prospects and expensive players.

    This potential Cleveland off season should have been the Reds after 2013.

  10. Scottya

    Interesting article over at Fangraphs about Corey Kluber fastball velocity declining in september this season. It seems to be concerning. “-1.5 mph drop in his fastball throws a major red flag.”

    It seems the Reds are after #1-#2 type starters and that is really good news. I would really love to have any of those guys, Paxton may be the right one, depending on the package. Reds could afford Paxton (3.25 era fangraphs projection) 9 million and Corbin (3.58 era projection) maybe 18 million per.

    1. Paxton 3.25
    2. Corbin 3.58 or Keuchal 3.69
    3. Castillo 3.98
    4. Desclafani 4.31
    5. Reed 4.34, mahle 4.72, etc.

    This starting rotation projects (fangraphs) to yield an era around 3.90 to 3.98

  11. Kap

    The reds will have to give up senzel for kluber. Point blank. They could get cookie for trammell but the reds would only have him for 2 years. Robbie Ray is another pitcher that fits this description as well.

  12. DanD

    Only Kluber is worth ONE of the top 3.
    For Carlos Carrasco I would give up a player in the 4-10 range, a player in the 16-20 range and a lottery player.
    For Paxton I would give them any player not named Trammell and Greene as a headliner.
    As much as I like Scooter I would trade him along with BobSteve and Billy Hamilton for Gray, Clint Fraiser and Chance Adams.

    On the FA front would love to see the Reds sign one of the following:
    JA Happ
    Lance Lynn
    Gio Gonzalez

    Would Marcus Stroman be worth buying low?

    Thoughts anyone?

    • Scottya

      I think Stroman is one step below all of the others mentioned: Corbin (FA), Keuchal (FA), Paxton, Kluber, Carrasco and Ray. I kinda hope we don’t bite on Kluber with the velocity decline at the end of last year.

      It would be a complete turnaround if we get two of those names. I know it’s not likely, but I believe the FO is doing all they can to make it happen.

  13. kevinz

    Don’t fall for it Reds. Kluber and cookie have been facing kc chw Min. The Lineups are much tougher in the NL Central.

      • kevinz

        They’ve also been Pitching in Pitchers Parks. Reds Park is a hitters Park.
        chw the only one where it is hitter friendly.

      • asinghoff

        24 games pitched against NL opponents
        2.62 ERA
        161.1 IP
        0.948 WHIP
        9.9 K/9
        .231/.256/.334 slash (.590 OPS)
        621 batters faced, 8 HRs allowed

        2 games pitched at GABP
        2.45 ERA
        14.2 IP
        1.023 WHIP
        7.4 K/9
        .231/.268/.288 (.556 OPS)
        56 batters faced, 0 HRs allowed

        Overall MLB Rank in Adjusted ERA+ (adjusted for ballpark)
        2018: 8th
        2017: 1st (1!)
        2016: 8th
        2015: Out of top 10
        2014: 5th

        I get the argument you’re attempting to make, but the numbers show that you’re making an assumption that couldn’t be further from the truth.

      • kevinz

        Extremely small sample size id say lol. Plus they would not be facing our Reds offense at GABP . Thank you for the stats by the way.

      • asinghoff

        No problem. I don’t think sample size matters much with Adjusted ERA+ in these circumstances. They use the numbers of every pitcher that has pitched in each ballpark that year and compare accordingly. That’s the one stat that would make me the most optimistic about a Kluber acquisition.

  14. LB

    Seems like a lot of classic prospect-hugging going on in these comments…I mean it’s definitely fine if you think these guys wouldn’t put the Reds over the top and thus don’t want to spend the prospects, but at the end of the day, there’s probably only one player in the Reds’ organization that is NOT worth 3 years of Kluber (Suarez).

    I will say, the top two things that the Indians should feasibly be looking for are OF and RP.

    Now, I’m not suggesting that what I’m about to write is a plan the Reds should take, but think about what this would do to the team:

    Raisel Iglesias, Scott Schebler, and Jon India for both Kluber and Carrasco

    Reds take a hit at OF and RP, but those would be much easier for them to fix than SP has been, and at the end of the day, 2 top-20 starters in the MLB would be an impressive start to the next 2/3 years of Reds baseball.

    Obviously not at all realistic, but I’d do it

  15. kevinz

    suarez scooter to SD for Gore Urias Morejon Naylor
    Greene Trammell Hamilton to TB for Honeywell Meadows
    Sign 2 Fa SP
    Sign 2 Bp arms with the suarez and scooter savings.

  16. Jon Ryker

    I’d trade Senzel for Kluber in a heart beat. He makes you 10 games better at least. Senzel, from a big-league standpoint, is a nice, but unnecessary piece for the Reds.

  17. Jer-B

    Here’s the way I would go about this off season.

    -Don’t make a trade unless you can get at least 2 or 3 years of a TOR starter & not break the bank.
    -Trade guys not named Castillo, Suarez, Senzel, Greene, Santillian, Trammel.
    -Then just go out and sign Gio Gonzalez, Matt Harvey or maybe Happ for 2 year deals, maybe throw in a 3rd year option if you have to.
    -Play Senzel in CF, or wherever else when Billy is in there.
    -Roll with what we have. If we are playing good ball in the central come the deadline, then go out and get other pieces via trade.

    No need to sell the farm at this stage. I know the development has been slow and grueling, but there is still quite a bit of upside with the current young pitchers that we have on the 40 man roster. See how they do with the new coaching staff.

  18. Scottya

    Maybe a package of Jonathan India, Jose Siri & James Marinan is enough to get Paxton?? I do not want to give up Nick Senzel for any of the named pitchers.

    The extremely high reward and high risk of Hunter Greene, makes me willing to trade him for 3 years of a #1 starter. I’m not sure if they should trade Greene for James Paxton, but I’d consider it, the qualifying offer could give a 3rd year a possibility or give paxton extra to guarantee his contract and extend one year.

    I also do not want to trade Trammell, but would for 3 years of a #1 starter.

    Why wait? We will have an additional amount of money (with the loss of homer bailey’s contract) to go get another starter for the 2020 season and if we’ve already taken two big steps forward, then this is possible:

    2020 potential rotation

    1. James Paxton – winter 18′ trade
    2. Alex Wood, Gerrit Cole, etc. free agents next winter
    3. Patrick Corbin – winter 18′ signing
    4. Luis Castillo
    5. Anthony Desclafani, Tony Santillan, Lucas Sims, Cody Reed, etc.

    • Optimist

      Paxton is an interesting focus. The M’s May be willing to expand the deal since they badly need to restock their farm system. I’d add Bham and Scooter, as well as several 10-20 prospects, and ask for several of their pitchers in addition to Paxton.

      A bit of addition by subtraction on both sides.

  19. Mid West Red

    At the point where the Reds are at now. I would not trade prospects. If the Reds truly are willing to spend more, then target a good starting pitcher in free agency, next see what it would take to get a starter like gray, but see if he could be had for Gennett. Lastly the biggest impact hopefully will come from within, with the new pitching coach.
    I would see what Scooter, Hamilton or Schebler would bring in a trade. Understand it would not be a Kluber or top end starter but someone of value who would be better than we’ve seen in the past couple of seasons.
    Getting to the point of winning a tough division should not be the goal. Dominating the division should be. We must draft, develop and keep our prospects at this time.

  20. Stock

    I think the Reds are closer than many of you think. Their offense is good. Their bullpen is good. They have 2 quality arms in the rotation and a lot of potential after that. They need a Paxton/Carrasco/Keuchel type of arm or two.

    In 2007 TB wins 66 games and finishes last in the AL East. Over the winter they trade Upton for Matt Garza. They have super prospect Evan Longoria ready to play 3B. They sign Troy Percival.

    In 2008 they win 97 games and make it to the WS.

    The Reds have Senzel instead of Longoria. I know Marco Gonzalez is not on the market but truth be told for the right price everyone is on the market.

    If the Reds were to go out and trade Stephenson, Santillan, India, Long and Fairchild to get Gonzalez and Paxton they would have a good rotation and still have $20 million to spend for 2019.

    With the final $20 million you could sign Keuchel or you could look to the bullpen and sign Ottavino and Kikuchi.

    Assuming health, the rotation would be very good.

    Castillo, DeSclafani, Paxton, Gonzalez and (Keuchel/Kikuchi)

    I would take these 5 over the Cubs rotation of Darvish, Quintana, Lester, Hendricks and Hamels. I like it far more than the Brewers rotation.

    C – Barnhart
    1B – Votto
    2B – Gennett
    3B – Suarez
    SS – Peraza
    LF – Winker
    CF – Senzel
    RF – Schebler

    A strong bullpen would just get better if Ottavino is added.

    Iglesias, Hernandez, Hughes, Garrett, Wisler, Lorenzen, Reed, Finnegan and even Sims.

    • redleggingfordayz

      I like these ideas a lot Stock. Not sure the Mariners are going to trade Gonzales, but with the recent bad publicity they are getting, perhaps they do push forward with a more hardcore rebuild. We don’t lose too much in this deal in the terms of prospects as a lot of these guys are depth. Personally I would rather sign someone like Happ or Gio over Keuchel due to $$ and years. Possibly use that leftover amount to get one more higher end BP guy (Sipp, Robertson, Miller).

      • Stock

        Thanks Redlegs.

        Since you don’t like Keuchel what do you think of signing Miller and Ottavino for the 20 million. We don’t really need this much of a bullpen but we could go with 4 SP (Castillo, DeSclafani, Paxton and Gonzalez). Then have 8 men in the bullpen and on days you need a 5th starter Have Reed go two innings. Have Lorenzen pinch hit for him and he can go 3 or 4 innings. Then finish with the back end of the pen.

        Another idea would be to include Hamilton in the trade. Then you could afford Happ and one of Ottavino/Miller.

      • redleggingfordayz

        I am actually very okay with loading up the bullpen. A few reasons would be, besides Herget, I don’t see too much in terms of shutdown stuff in the upper levels of the minors. Also, the Reds have enough people on the roster that can go 2-3 innings at a time no problem (Bob Steve, Reed, Lorenzen, Sims,). They could make this work, but I think a big elephant in the room we are all ignoring, is Homer Bailey.

  21. Clammy

    The Reds have made several three team trades; most recently the Todd Frazier trade with the White Sox and Dodgers. The only realistic way they get Kluber is to trade Suarez to the Pads, Cleveland fleeces the S.D. farm system and we get Kluber. Senzel plays 3B and we’re a lot closer to being a winning team.

  22. Jon Ryker

    I love it how everybody blithely assumes Senzel is better than Suarez. I doubt it. He also appears to be brittle. Trade Senzel. Keep Suarez.

      • Oldtimer

        Reds took a different approach with Kurt Stillwell and Barry Larkin in 1980s. Traded Stillwell and kept Larkin. Made the right choice.

      • Doug Gray

        Except the Stillwell/Larkin thing isn’t remotely like Suarez/Senzel.

        We know a lot more about projection today than we did then, but even looking back, how was there EVER a debate about who to keep? Larkin actually hit in the minor leagues. Stillwell, hit ok for the time, but Larkin was clearly the better hitter, and it’s not like he was some terrible defender. The idea that somehow there was a debate as to who would be better between those two is mind numbing when looking back. And while you probably could have played one at shortstop and one somewhere else, there was still the question, or should have been, of “Will Kurt Stillwell hit?”. I know, different era, different expectations.

        But let’s look at things today. Eugenio Suarez is a proven All-Star. And he’s under team control for the next seven years. And at insanely stupid cheap prices. Nick Senzel may play third base, too. But he also plays second. And it sure sounds like he can play the outfield, with a chance to play center. And there’s also not much question that he’ll be able to hit.

        The Reds made the right choice in the 80’s because it should have been easily apparent to EVERYONE what the right choice was. Go back and look at the numbers those two guys were posting. One dude raked. One dude kept his head above water.

    • Jon Ryker

      Well, if you can keep both and bring two very good starters in here that you have a few years control over, that’s fine by me….but my guess is, they’ll be asking for Senzel.

      • Doug Gray

        Sure. Let them ask. But it just doesn’t make sense to trade for a guy with 2 years right now IF the cost is Senzel. If the team were further along and that 2-year guy would put them over the top, then things change. But that’s not the case right now. Even for someone as insanely good as Corey Kluber.

  23. AirborneJayJay

    “We can’t make a trade for a top pitcher because we aren’t close enough.” Hogwash.
    The same argument was held by a lot of the same people this time last year on Christian Yelich. You know, 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich, just as I predicted last year.
    Getting 1 starting pitcher is but 1 step in the process. Getting Yelich last year would have been 1 step, too. But a step closer to sustainable winning. And if Yelich would have cost Hunter Greene last year, then so be it. It would have made the Reds a much better and different team in 2018 with Yelich.
    “Get the pitching”, is what we were promised. Then go after Kluber or Syndergaard hard. Pay the price. Both the Indians and Mets are wanting a package of ML players and prospects and the Reds have surpluses at positions of need by both teams.

    • Jon Ryker

      I agree they should trade for good pitchers now. If they’d traded for Yelich, they’d have won maybe 5 more games at most, because they’d still have had dreadful pitching, and now they’d be less able to trade for or buy good pitching.

    • Doug Gray

      There’s a big difference between getting Christian Yelich and getting Corey Kluber. How long they are around, and the money paid while they are on the team, is very, very, very different.

      Now, you want to go get Syndergaard…. literally everyone is on the table. He’s not a free agent until after 2021 and doesn’t make huge money, at least yet.

  24. Walt Jocketty

    If the reds sign harrison, Suarez or scooter or both might be gone. The only reason to sign him is to trade him. Looking at the numbers tho, how does he help you? At the end of the day, it comes down to the evaluation of player talent from the gm and your scouts. Personally , I don’t feel confident in this organization. If i’m trading suarez, im getting someone back with at least 4 years remaining who isnt 30 plus. I do agree with doing more minor league trading. We have to get pitchers that are more polished.

    .

    • redleggingfordayz

      Why would Harrison replace either of those players? If they sign him, I would bet it is more of a utility role than a straight up replacement. He could be great buy low candidate if he can get back to his 2017 stats, and give us around 400 AB’s.

  25. Doc

    Doug,

    I hope you are logging all these recommended trades and acquitions in a giant spreadsheet so that this time next year you can give us a run down of the year’s performances of all the players the Reds ‘should have acquired’ as well as all those they ‘should have traded’ to make the acquisitions. Now that would be interesting. After all, real GMs have to live with the consequences of their decisions, so maybe a rundown of the success of armchair GMs would make for good reading.

      • Doug Gray

        But, it’s also the money he’s getting. Not that he’s not worth that part, he is. But when you account for what you’ve got to get up to get him, also pay him what he’s owed, AND where the team currently is, the math just doesn’t compute for me.

  26. Jon Ryker

    Well, I would equate this to the Scott Rolen trade……very bad trade if you look at what he produced and what Encarnacion became. But I think most Reds fans liked it anyway, because of the attitude shift.

    Kluber has won a lot of games and carried a big load. That staff has no clue how to win. I think he’s worth more than his numbers…..you can always trade him a year or so in if he’s less than spectacular.

  27. B-town Fan

    Doug, Jon Morosi was talking about the Yankees and Reds talk about a Sonny Gray trade on his twitter and said the Yankees would probably ask for the Reds top shortstop prospect Jeter Downs. Now aside from you saying Downs is probably more of a second base prospect. Would you trade Downs for Gray and his 4.90 era, don’t know his salary, so the Yankees might have to carry some of his salary. Gray doesn’t seem much of an upgrade over Matt Harvey.

    • KyWilson1

      If that’s all they want for Gray, absolutely. Hes blocked by 3-4 guys that are ranked above him that can play 2b. Gray was much better on the road, and would be paired with his college pitching coach. All off season I’ve said Gray or Danny Duffy, maybe both. Don’t give up anyone in the top 5 for them and to me that’s a win.

      • B-town Fan

        Yes I would assume there would be a couple more mid level prospects with Downs involved in a trade like. No way you trade any of your top 5 maybe even top 10. Your only talking about one year of Gray.

  28. Oldtimer

    Reds fixed their biggest problem when they hired David Bell as 2019 manager.

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/managers.shtml the Reds have had 10 different managers last 5 or more seasons.

    Only one had a sub .500 record. Bryan Price. His .419 career W-L record is pathetic.

    Had the Reds changed managers in 2016, they would probably be contending (above .500) in 2019.