This isn’t exactly minor league related, but I thought it was a good enough topic to discuss here and it does involve minor leaguers who will contribute to the Reds this year.
Well I wanted to look at the 2007 Reds versus the 2008 Reds in the hopes of trying to figure out what we need to do to improve this sad sack of a team that was the 2007 Reds.
2007 Reds
783 runs scored and 853 runs allowed (-70 runs).
In theory for every 10 runs you are outscored, or score more on the season, you gain a win/loss. IE 800 runs and 790 runs against gets you that extra win to go 82-80.
So, for the Reds to get to that 81-81 record, they need to make up 70 runs from last years RS/RA. Lets assume that Harang and Arroyo and Belisle all stay the EXACT same. No improvements at all. That gives the Reds 620 innings and 320 runs allowed (4.64 Runs Against per 9, not ERA). The rest of the rotation (Lohse and then the patchwork) gave the Reds 337 innings and 234 runs allowed (6.25 RA/9). Most of those guys are now gone and the Reds need to replace those 337 innings. That leaves a group of Bailey, Volquez, Maloney, Cueto and Affeldt. Lets just go ahead and run the numbers here and say that group pitches 337 innings and go with some bench mark RA/9.
If they allow (RA/9) they will save the Reds [Runs versus last year]:
(5.00) - [47 runs saved]
(5.25) - [37 runs saved]
(5.37) - [33 runs saved]
(5.50) - [28 runs saved]
(5.75) - [18 runs saved]
Now with those numbers, lets figure out where that group of starters should roughly fall…. Lets go out on a limb and go with a median number of 5.37 RA/9. Thats not really out of the question is it given the talent?
Alright, so we are now at (70-33) 37 runs needing to be made up. Lets look toward the bullpen now.
Jared Burton and David Weathers combined for 120.7 innings and 48 RA (3.58 RA/9). Now I don’t think either guy does that well again this year, so whats a good number? 4.00 ERA for Weathers and 3.50 for Burton and combine them for 140 innings (taking into account Burton gets more than 43 innings this year)? That would put them at 140 innings and 61 runs. The rest of the bullpen was pretty atrocious and combined to throw 370 innings and allowed 248 runs (6.03 RA/9).
Now lets just go out and say Cordero (photo above: AP/Darren Hauck) gives us 70 innings and 29 runs (3.73 RA/9) and combined that with the 140 innings from Weathers and Burton and their 61 runs….
That puts the bullpen with 210 innings and 90 runs. That would mean the bullpen now needs to account for 280 more innings (assuming the bullpen throws the same amount of innings as last year).
Running those numbers lets see how the Reds could potentially do:
280 innings at 4.75 RA/9 = 148 runs allowed.
280 innings at 5.00 RA/9 = 156 runs allowed.
280 innings at 5.25 RA/9 = 163 runs allowed.
280 innings at 5.50 RA/9 = 171 runs allowed.
280 innings at 5.75 RA/9 = 179 runs allowed.
OK, now does anyone honestly believe the pen will be nearly as bad as last year?
Lets assume the non Burton, Cordero and Weathers guys give us a 5.25 RA/9 at 280 innings then Burton, Cordero and Weathers give us the numbers above that would place the bullpen at 490 innings and 243 runs allowed (entire bullpen for 4.46 RA/9 or ~4.17 ERA for the bullpen). Now from last years 296 runs, we are now looking at 243 runs. That saves the Reds 53 runs.
The bullpen saved 53 runs and the rotation saved 37 runs, which gives the Reds a 90 run turnaround and in turn is looking at ~ and 83-79 record.
What happens if Matt Belisle improves just a little bit and say gives the Reds 178 innings and a 4.60 ERA this year? That would itself save the Reds 15 runs overall and push them close to an 85-77 record.
Is anything at all I typed really something that we shouldn’t expect to happen based on what we have currently?
I don’t really think it is. All of that itself was done just by getting rid of guys like Milton, Saarloos, Santos, Ramirez, Dumatrait and adding guys like Cordero, Affeldt, Volquez and getting contributions from Bailey, Cueto and Maloney as well. I didn’t even address the offense which may or may not improve, but lets just assume it stays the same we still aren’t in that bad of shape and the core guys are all here for at least 3 more years we can control if we want Harang, Arroyo, Belisle, Bailey, Cueto, Volquez, Cordero, Burton, Votto, Phillips, Encarnacion and Bruce. Thats a pretty solid core of guys right there that we should be building around IMO.
Tuesday, 12. February 2008
Good analysis Doug. It be kind of interesting to see if you could run the same numbers from the time Narron got fired onwards. I honestly think we had a better team than what was given credit by Narron screwing things up. Honestly, I think we could of had a similar season to 06′ if it wasn’t for him.
Out of curiosity, do you know what the RS/RA from the time he got fired onwards. This is getting me pumped up for the season. I know you don’t care for Baker but I think he does generally get the most out of his players and maybe he could add 4-6 games through good clubhouse chemistry and such.
Wednesday, 13. February 2008
Kurt,
The bullpen is going to look better I would imagine just because thats when Burton really started to come into his own and he really carried that bullpen on his back for the second half.
I doubt the starting looked better though because we replaced Lohse with a bunch of crap.
Wednesday, 13. February 2008
Fans demanding a trade reminds me of my algebra class in 1964 , during the height of the cold war.During a particularly off topic dicussion before class a student opposed to candidate Goldwater opined that ” I’d rather be Red than dead!” The teacher wqas delighted to inject a bit of algebraic logic into the argument , pointing out that it was possible to be “both red and dead”.My point is that there is no guarantee that any of the youngsters make significant contributions this season…or that Mr. Blanton will put us in the playoffs. Keep the kids.
Wednesday, 13. February 2008
For those of us too young to remember the 1964 elections,Goldwater was portrayed as a nuclear “hawk” likely to respond to Soviet aggression by launching ICBMs against Moscow and starting “the big one” Opponents argued we were safer to vote against him.Going into the season with young pitching seems risky too , but the alternative isn’t necessarily safer.It’s possible to be “both veteran and below .500″
Wednesday, 13. February 2008
poorolddad:
Thank you. I’ve felt that way about both Bedard and now Blanton. You never know how a trade is going to work out, but I’ll bet you can count on two hands the number of QUALITY pitchers the Reds have traded for over the years.
The price for Blanton is too high. If anyone recalls the Seaver trade, the Reds dealt Doug Flynn, Pat Zachary, Steve Henderson and Dan Norman (I think) to get a HALL OF FAME pitcher. That’s one utility player, a number three or two (at best) starter, one top (and surplus) prospect, and a guy who never made the bigs. My point is that in my opinion, the Reds are being asked to give up way more than that for a guy who most likely will never put up HOF numbers.
I’m with poorolddad.
Thursday, 14. February 2008
Like the analysis, I am really really looking forward to this season….because I bet we make a run for the playoffs. You forgot a Dusty factor he’s worth at least 5 games.
Thursday, 14. February 2008
Lol, I don’t think I forgot ‘the Dusty factor’ as I don’t believe in that…. especially with Baker.
Saturday, 16. February 2008
It will be interesting to see your numbers vrs. reality at the end of the season. I can help but agree that pen should be better and hopefully they wont waste time DFAing Stanton. The 5 or 6 guys in the pen should be Cordero, Weathers, Burton, Bray, Affeldt & if they go with 12 pitchers, then Merker (I have missed his humor!) I really get the feeling Bailey & Volquez will round out our starting 5. I wouldnt be surprised to see Cueto called up and pitch out of the pen in long relief if anyone gets hurt at some point in the season.
Saturday, 16. February 2008
Ooops, forgot to add in Majewski to make it 12!!!
Saturday, 16. February 2008
Ron….. don’t say things like that lol. Majewski and Merker would make me resonsider my fandom.
Sunday, 17. February 2008
LOL I hear ya, but unless some of the young’ns (Couter, McBeth, Pelland, Salmon) are ready to step up … or Coffey proves last year was just an aberation, I dont see much better options at this point ovr Majewski. But I am hoping Merker makes Stanton expendable … Merker had some solid years for us and if TJ surgery works out for him, I’d rather hear his comments in Fay’s blog any day of the week over Stanton’s. He is entertaining if nothing else.
Sunday, 17. February 2008
Mercker will absolutely not make our roster. I promise that one.
I think Coffey will improve this season versus last year. There were way too many funny things going on with his game to make me believe that is a repeatable season for him. Coutlangus, McBeth and Salmon all showed last year that they were able to get the job done.