I try and do this every year but this year it was a little tougher than most given the battles for positions, especially on the pitching staff. So before the numbers come out, here is how I am projecting things to work out.
- Jay Bruce starts in the minors and is called up Mid to late May to take over in CF after destroying Louisville.
- Jeremy Affeldt wins the #5 spot over Homer Bailey due to a numbers move, but Bailey comes up in late May and Affeldt shifts to the bullpen.
- The bullpen is way too wide open, so I only projected the numbers for the guys I know will be there unless their arms fall off (Weathers, Cordero, Burton and Affeldt eventually).
- Cueto gets a late summer call up, gets 2 or 3 starts and is then moved into the bullpen down the stretch.
Now here are the stats that I have projected for the Reds in 2008:
Thats what I have. The pitching staff turns itself around this year and the hitting stays solid. Overall though I see the Reds going 86-76 and finishing in 3rd place behind the Brewers and the Cubs (win the division).
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17 responses so far ↓
1 DevilsAdvocate // Feb 15, 2008 at 3:03 pm
Huh. Seems like a bit of a dropoff for Dunn, especially in his ‘walk-year.’ Also looks like Hatteberg didn’t adjust well to pinch-hitting duty. But what a first full year for Votto - not bad at all.
This also highlights that the Reds are pretty homogeneous up and down the lineup. Lots of similar figures in there.
No Stanton in the bullpen? Hallelujah.
2 Doug Gray // Feb 15, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Dunn’s major hit in his numbers come from the dip in average and a the HR drop albeit slight. I think his average gets a little bit of a hit because his BABIP last year was 30 points higher than it had been in the previous two seasons and I expect it to regress a little toward those numbers.
As for Stanton….. I am just not sure he can make the team. His name being tossed around by McNamee all day to Congress certainly isn’t helping his case of staying on just because we owe him money.
3 River Otter // Feb 15, 2008 at 6:14 pm
Let’s hope you’re right about Ross. It would be nice to see him put up respectable numbers this year.
I’d be surprised if Bailey doesn’t start the year with Reds. Otherwise, I hope your projections are fairly accurate with regarding to our pitchers — it would be a huge improvements over last year.
4 Dave from Louisville // Feb 15, 2008 at 8:38 pm
No way 86 wins places third in the division. That would mean our division record would have to improve vs the east and west….which I don’t think will happen. Or the Astros, Cardinals, and Pirates would have to be really really horrible.
5 Doug Gray // Feb 15, 2008 at 8:54 pm
The Astros, Cardinals and Pirates are going to be horrible. Count on that one. But we are also a better team and will win more games outside of the division than last year as well.
6 Dave from Louisville // Feb 15, 2008 at 9:01 pm
86 wins would be great, and I think that wins the division
7 Doug Gray // Feb 15, 2008 at 9:20 pm
Dave,
I don’t think you are giving the Cubs enough credit. They are a really good team.
8 Patrick Brame // Feb 15, 2008 at 11:42 pm
I disagree on Arroyo’s ERA unless you think he will have a dead arm again. Last year he had a 3.18 ERA in the 28 starts where he was healthy. The 6 starts after the long outing SD where he had arm fatigue skew his overall ERA and how well he did pitch last year. Over 3/4 of the year he pitched better than Harang. In 2006 he was also better than Harang. I would expect 3.5 ERA from Arroyo as long as Baker does not over use him.
9 Doug Gray // Feb 16, 2008 at 1:16 am
Patrick I hope you are right about Arroyo. That would go a long way into turning the Reds into serious WS contenders if Arroyo could do that.
10 Ron // Feb 16, 2008 at 1:50 am
If Ross ever hits over .225 again, I’ll be sincerely surprised & might even be willing to eat my shorts! I get the feeling Phillips only gets better this year, Im seeing 35 HRs. As for Jr, Im skeptical … if he stays healthy, he will prolly but up numbers like that .. but I am predicting maybe a 100 games out of him this year as he hands RF over to Bruce full time due to injury. I also predict that Hopper gets Jr off his back and hits his first homer … unfortunetly it will be of the inside the park variety at San Fransisco.
11 Doug Gray // Feb 16, 2008 at 2:28 am
Ron,
Be ready to eat your shorts. His batting average on balls in play was incredibly low last season and when it reverts back to normal, his average is going to jump up. Hopper already has a MLB HR, which is crazy considering he only has 3 in 3400 MILB at bats, but still.
12 DevilsAdvocate // Feb 16, 2008 at 12:29 pm
I dunno, I thought the same thing about Jason LaRue (poor season due to an abysmally low BABIP which was bound to revert to normal), but then he went to Kansas City and astonishingly hit even worse.
With Dusty at the helm, I wouldn’t count on Arroyo staying rested enough to avoid another fatigued stretch. If he’s got horses, and they want the ball, they’re going to get it. A solid bullpen might help subvert that tendency, though. I sure hope Cordero & Coffey & Weathers & co. start off well enough to earn their manager’s confidence.
13 Stacky // Feb 18, 2008 at 12:57 am
Very interesting prognostications Doug. No doubt we have many questionmarks but its been a while since our mighty Reds have had so many positive asterix besides the ?. A couple of things I would be happy to get some feedback on:
* To my thinking a big reason we can step up into playoff beckoning is if Bray and Majewski can get back to being ‘dominant’ - that is pitching healthy as per their last seasons with the Nats. Our BP would so from solid to outstanding (especially in our division);
* The aquisition of Craig Wilson is intriging - he can be a very solid Cnr Outfield replacement when the inevitable injuries come and I think he gives a balance to the line-up as its stands. I don’t know if he has anything in the tank but the Braves gave him some solid coin last year and he performed well on a bad Pirates squad for multiple years. To me he can have a similar effect as Kriv’s other late pickups (Ross / Keppinger);
We gotta hope and pray that Harang stays healthy!
14 Doug Gray // Feb 18, 2008 at 3:14 am
I don’t think Majewski is ever going to pitch as well as he did in RFK while in Cincinnati just because of the huge different in the park factors.
15 Matt McWax // Feb 19, 2008 at 4:14 pm
I’m hesitant to agree that we won’t have an ERA over 5.00 when we had 16 of them last year and 2 more over 4.90. None of your projections for ERA’s would surprise individually but taken as a whole, it seems unlikely.
I think Arroyo will be a bit tougher but I’m glad you gave Burton and Weathers reasonable projections. One of the young starters would be the best candidate for 5+. If I had to choose, I’d say Volquez, then Bailey for being over 5.00. I think Hatteberg will be better.
I’m in agreement on Ross. I don’t have a problem with him being one-dimensional at the plate, you have to respect 38 HR and 91 RBI in 558 at-bats, especially given his good defense.
BP’s OBP will go up more I think. I think he’s still young and developing and it’s too early to classify him as weak on plate discipline.
16 Matt McWax // May 9, 2008 at 4:08 pm
Proof I know nothing. Volquez’s change-up is unfair and he can spread out 6 walks against a good hitting team. I’m glad to be wrong on that one. I didn’t want him to keep throwing so many pitches the last game, but that last strikeout was exciting. Please handle with care. Arroyo’s head seems ok but maybe he’s just lost it.
17 Wildcat112 // Aug 13, 2008 at 1:16 pm
who are the dominician players we have signed, did we sign the shortstop Arias?……….
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