(Photo: Lisas Lounge/Flickr.com)
Drew Stubbs is one of the more intriguing prospects in all of baseball. The scout crowd love him for his bag of tools, while the ’stats’ crowd is down on him for his strikeouts and performance thus far. Personally, I like to think I have a nice mix of both stats and scouting in my opinions of players. Still, he is a spark for debate among the prospecting community.
Last year he hit just .270/.364/.421 in Low A Dayton. One of the most concerning things about his year was the 142 strikeouts. Last year in Dayton, Stubbs was batting in the leadoff spot for a majority of the time. In the leadoff spot he hit just .255/.358/.385 while striking out 26.1% of the time. He did however get 125 plate appearances outside of the leadoff spot. In those appearances he hit .313/.368/.509 while striking out just 20% of the time, cutting off 6% from his overall strikeout rate.
One of the things I had thought was a bad idea for Stubbs, despite his incredible speed, was batting him leadoff with his strikeout problems. Leadoff hitters generally have it in their mind that they need to take pitches to let their other hitters see what the pitcher is throwing. When a player has contact problems, taking strikes is not always the best idea. While it was just 125 times at the plate, it seems that once outside of the leadoff spot his contact rates really improved.
This year, Stubbs has been hitting 5th in the lineup for Sarasota. Its early, but his strikeout rate is again down a bit at 19% and he is drawing walks at a great rate early on. I have said it all winter and spring, but I really think this is the year Drew Stubbs quiets most of his doubters. He is in a league that is notorious for eating hitters alive, but I don’t expect him to be there all year.
Tuesday, 8. April 2008
It doesn’t seem like a good sign that Stubbs doesn’t like (or thrive at) the top of the order. Hopefully he can get his strike outs down just enough to be an above average regular. With his turf toe presumably behind him, how many stolen bases would you say he is in for? Im hoping that Stubbs makes the adjustments to be a .250 hitter in the big leagues. If he can be a .250/.340 15/30 kinda guy with golden glove defense that would be a real asset.
Tuesday, 8. April 2008
I don’t think its a problem really that he isn’t great in the leadoff spot. Speed in the leadoff spot is one of the most overrated things in the recent history of baseball. Lineups have more than one guy that has true power these days. You don’t need to be fast to score runs these days, you just need to get on base. Speed is something I think that could be best utilized by the lower order guys (5-7) because the players behind them aren’t going to hit for much power, so that stolen base could really mean the difference between scoring on a single or being stranded at 3rd.
I honestly believe Stubbs is going to steal 40 bases this year at a very high rate. His speed is absolutely top notch and he should be able to get a good jump with no toe issues now.
Tuesday, 8. April 2008
For Stubbs, its all going to come down to he being to strike out less than 25%. If he can do that, he is going to be very, very good.
Friday, 11. April 2008
The problem is Stubbs is a UT product & will not change his swing. He is an impressive athlete; but, was pampered by the coaches & boosters in Texas as are all UT athletes. It is too bad; but, count him out of the picture, hope he has one good minor league year and becomes tradeable.
Friday, 11. April 2008
CC,
I have to disagree because he HAS changed his swing since he first was drafted. Texas has a history of college hitters that kill the ball in college and do little to nothing in the professional ranks. That could have to do with coaching, but I think its silly to write him off at this point in time.
Friday, 2. May 2008
Drew will do whatever he needs to make his swing work in the bigs. I went to high school with this guy in Atlanta, Texas, and he always adjusted to make things happen. He scored last-second touchdowns on the football field, walk-off homers on the baseball field, and won track meets all day. He’s an athlete, and he’s smart enough to know, as he graduated third in our class. I wouldn’t doubt him if I were you…
Thursday, 29. May 2008
Well, I hope he makes a career out of being in the Majors. Don’t know if I’m related to Drew or not, but regardless, I really do hope he does well.