The NFL draft is coming up on Saturday and while I am fairly excited about it, it pales in comparison to the excitement I have on MLB Draft day, even though it takes players a lot longer to get to the majors and make impacts than in the NFL. I love baseball though and that probably has a lot more to do with why I love the baseball draft. The MLB draft is on Thursday June 5th, which means we are just 6 weeks away until the draft is upon us. The Reds don’t have a second round pick this year due to signing Francisco Cordero but they have the #7 overall pick in the draft. Saberscouting.com did a mock draft earlier in the week that went 11 players deep. Each of the two writers held their own drafts and ended up giving the Reds two different picks. Here is what they had to say about the Reds and who they had us taking:
Frankie: Cincy has faith in their high schoolers. Melville should be right there for the taking. Am I the only one that sees a match there? He’s right up their alley and I really have seen no hint that they are changing their draft philosophy anytime soon. And, I really don’t think there’s another guy there for them to take that fits as well as Melville.
Kiley: So, I guess we’re only going to agree on #1. At #7, the Reds have all the first baseman still on the board; Hosmer, Smoak, and Alonso, and they arguably make up the top 3 players on the board. And Joey Votto isn’t the type of guy to force you not to take a 1B, especially with these 1Bs officially slipping. The Reds don’t have a history of paying for Boras guys (Hosmer) and Smoak is the consenus guy ahead of Alonso, so for me, this pick is Smoak or whoever the Reds have as the top arm, either Tulane’s Shooter Hunt, Fresno State’s Tanner Scheppers, or Missouri prepster Tim Melville. I think when it comes down to it, the Reds take the pitcher and go with Tulane’s version of Homer Bailey, Shooter Hunt.
Frankie’s Projection for #7: Tim Melville, RHP, Missouri’s Holt HS
Kiley’s Projection for #7: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane
They both have the Reds going for a pitcher, but both are going in different directions. Frankie has the Reds taking a High Schooler in Tim Melville while Kiley has the Reds heading to Tulane for Shooter Hunt. They didn’t include scouting reports on the players, but Milb.com has been running a great feature that has scouting reports and video on a lot of guys. Lets take a look at what they have to say for Tim Melville:
Tim Melville - Wentzville Holt HS (Mo.)
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| Fastball: | Melville threw his fastball up to 92 mph in this outing, but there’s more in the tank. |
| Curve: | It’s a knuckle-curve that he threw around 76 mph. He showed glimpses of a better breaking ball than in the past, including one that was outstanding, though he’s still inconsistent with it. |
| Changeup: | It’s a below-average offering right now, though it’s a pitch that’s often the last to come. |
| Control: | His command was below-average in this start and he was having problems with his delivery, perhaps to be chalked up to it being his first start. |
| Poise: | He was outstanding on the mound, making adjustments and not getting flustered. |
| Physical Description: | Melville is a big, strong and imposing pitcher with wide shoulders and plenty of room to fill out. |
| Medical Update: | Healthy. |
| Strengths: | Projectable frame with plenty of room for growth. That, in turn, could turn an above-average fastball into a plus one. |
| Weaknesses: | A lack of a premium power breaking ball. He’ll have to show he’s able to throw a plus breaking pitch some of the time to be a top pick. |
| Summary: | One of the top high school arms in the Draft class, Melville has a big projectable frame which has plenty of room for growth. Already possessing above-average arm strength, he could add even more velocity in the future. He shows glimpses of a good knuckle-curve, but will have to find more consistency with it. Same goes for his changeup, which is clearly his third pitch. He draws some comparisons to Yankee Phil Hughes when he was in high school and should find himself gone in the first round just as Hughes did. |
If you click on Tim Melville’s name above it will take you to the actual page from Milb.com that has a brief video of him.
Shooter Hunt - Tulane University
The Milb.com scouts have not yet had a chance to see Shooter Hunt pitch yet, but the Saberscouting.com guys did do a profile on him earlier in the spring so here is what they had to say on him:
Pitch - Present Grade/Future Grade
Fastball - 65/70
Curveball - 65/65
Changeup - 45/50
Command - 45/50
Physical Description - Tall, wiry, proportioned body with decent projection. Looks thinner than his listed weight. Thin legs, long lower half with room to grow. Looks very, very young. Very strong, and a complete, all-around athlete. Looks like Jensen Lewis.
Fastball - True power arm, fastball sits at 92-94, touches 96. Attacks hitters with heat and loves to work inside. Knocks hitters down to setup the outer half. Command of the fastball comes and goes, very, very inconsistent. The command is a major concern. Fastball moves late and hard in on righties, breaks a lot of bats. Enough movement to cause his control problems. Electric fastball.
Curveball - Hammer curveball at 78-82 MPH, seems to spot this pitch better than any other. Doesn’t throw many bad ones and works it on both sides of the plate. Plus pitch. Breaks late and just drops off the table. 12-6 break with tight, hard spin. Great feel for this pitch and throws it with conviction. Big swing and miss pitch, just needs to stay ahead in the count to use it. Still some issues with his command of this pitch.
Changeup - Power changeup, throws at 84-87 MPH. Very straight with very little movement or action. True straight changeup, and is surprisingly very effective with hitters sitting on his heat. Definitely his third pitch and doesn’t use much. When he uses it he shows a decent feel, its a fringy pitch but a good change of pace.
Mechanics - High leg kick, throws right over the top. A little big herky jerky and can get out of sync in a hurry. Smooth, very quick arm action but will need to tighten up the rest of his mechanics. Has trouble repeating his delivery, perhaps should trying simplifying his delivery. Too many moving parts. Shoulders flies open occassionally. Delivery is very similar to Mark Melancon.
Notes - Power pitcher but struggles with command in spurts. Sometimes spots his pitches as well as anyone but can fall out of his groove incredibly quickly. Lots of walks, lots of strikeouts. When on, he’s got frontline potential. Plus makeup, plays to win, great competitive attitude. Must learn to pitch, not throw. Huge upside.
Overall Comparison: Homer Bailey (with rougher mechanics)
Here is a video of him pitching in the Cape Cod League from youtube
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7 responses so far ↓
1 Kyle // Apr 24, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Baseball America said in a chat that the Reds would be smart to take Eric Hosmer at #7 if he is there. He would be the bpa at that point, better imo and others than hunt and melville. it is hard not to be skeptical of a college pitcher with command issues. The Reds will probably take a pitcher though, realizing that they wont get another chance to do that until the third round.
Speaking of which, I think the Reds should look for a defensively capable shortstop there. I think Brandon Crawford or Danny Espinosa would be good picks there.
My personal top 7 players,
Pedro Alvarez
Aaron Crow
Brian Matsuzs
Tim Beckham
Eric Hosmer
Buster Posey
Justin Smoak
2 Doug Gray // Apr 24, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Personally I would stay away from Crow. I don’t like his mechanics at all. When he loads to come to the plate his elbow positioning is scary and just screams TJ to me.
3 Ron // Apr 24, 2008 at 5:15 pm
Wow, that Shooter really has a BIG leg kick. I am curious to see some info on Scheppers … BBA had him rising on the ranking board last insider report. Saying he was consistantly 92-95 with a nasty slider & curve. They also say he was more impressive than Matusz & Crow at the USD Tournament in February.
4 Dave from Louisville // Apr 24, 2008 at 7:33 pm
I found this sight, thought it was cool.
He projects Tanner:
http://www.mlb-draft.com/
5 Ron // Apr 24, 2008 at 7:44 pm
Good stuff Dave … pretty much echo’d what BBA had to say about him.
6 Kyle // Apr 24, 2008 at 11:04 pm
You wouldn’t hear me complaining if the Reds snag Posey or Hosmer in the draft. They look like they’ll the bpa at that point. They seem like safer bets than hunt. Even if the Reds get a logjam at first or catcher. Then the Reds could flip somebody down the line for a quality pitcher.
7 tim buxton // May 13, 2008 at 10:36 pm
Justin Warrington a pitcher for Wakins Memorial High School located in Columbus Ohio should be looked at a little closer.
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