This is going to be a little different than what it had been the first few times. This is for the entire first half of the season (well, at least until the AA All-Star break).
Stock up
Daryl Thompson - He had been ranked in the Mid 20’s coming into the season and now may be the Reds best pitching prospect with Cueto and Bailey graduating from the rankings.
Chris Valaika - Always considered a good prospect, I had him just outside of the top 15 (where he came in at #16) but he has come back to life with his bat after a rough second half in Sarasota last year. The shortstop is hitting a combined .318/.366/.509 between Sarasota and Chattanooga this year.
Robert Manuel - Despite not having overpowering stuff its hard to argue 78 strikeouts to 13 walks in 60.2 innings this year, mostly coming at AA.
Chris Heisey - The guy just looks like he is a ballplayer. He has just 5 more strikeouts than walks and has stolen 21 of 22 bases in Sarasota.
Shaun Cumberland - He was unranked last year and is now spending his time in AAA as a 23 year old. He is hitting a combined .291/.375/.449 between AA and AAA
Philippe Valiquette - The 21 year old has a combined 2.87 ERA and 48 strikeouts with 20 walks in 47 innings.
Zach Cozart - He always had the glove but his bat was in serious question by me. This year I am seeing a different hitter. His overall line may not be too impressive, but he is a changed man at the plate in a good way.
Sean Henry - Hitting .320 and slugging .498 in AA at an age appropriate level will get your stock way up, especially when I had you outside of the top 40. Doh!
Stock Down
Juan Francisco - His lack of plate discipline just isn’t getting better and without showing any signs of improvement he has slipped some.
Marcus McBeth - What happened to this guy? He lost all control this year, walking nearly 3 times as many guys as he did last season.
Adam Rosales - His bat has looked like it is coming around lately, but this year he has been somewhat disappointing at the plate with a .693 OPS in AAA.
Pedro Viola - While he has been incredibly unlucky this year (.450 BABIP against him through 211 batters faced), his overall body of work is still down from last year.
Jose Castro - Sent back down to Sarasota this year after struggling mightily in Chattanooga.
Helium Stocks
Kyle Lotzkar - This kid has a chance to be the absolute best pitcher in the system by the end of the year and he is only 18. Despite being the youngest starting pitcher in the league, he is striking out 33% of the batters that step up against him.
Neftali Soto - This kid is absolutely raking. I am going to go out on a limb and say by the end of the year, he will be the Reds #1 prospect.
Monday, 14. July 2008
Good stuff as usual, Doug.
Really interesting that BOTH of the “helium stocks” are products of the international draft, right? I’m VERY happy to see the Reds being serious players there. That can only be good.
Pretty cool that they’re both teenagers too.
Monday, 14. July 2008
They were both international guys in the regular draft. Canada and Puerto Rico residents are eligible to be drafted.
Monday, 14. July 2008
So, where does Stubbs’ stock lie; up, down, or just about right? What about Frazier?
Any way you could do a ‘quick and dirty’ ranking of prospects this mid-season? Perhaps a top-ten of pitchers separate from position players.
I have a hard time trying to determine if our AA talent has more ceiling than our rookie talent.
Monday, 14. July 2008
I think Stubbs and Frazier, at least in my eyes are about where they were last year. Remove the guys who graduated and they are 1-2 in the system.
I will go with a very quick and rough list…. so if anyone gets left out, my bad.
Hitters
Drew Stubbs
Todd Frazier
Neftali Soto
Devin Mesoraco
Chris Valaika
Shaun Cumberland
Juan Duran
Juan Francisco
Justin Turner
Sean Henry
Pitchers
Daryl Thompson
Kyle Lotzkar
Josh Roenicke
Travis Wood
Jordan Smith
Matt Maloney
Sam Lecure
Tyler Pelland
Philippe Valiquette
Ramon Ramirez
Just a rough toss out there. I could be forgetting someone big time in there.
Monday, 14. July 2008
I see you rank Duran highly; how has he performed thus far in the DSL? When can he be promoted to the GCL?
Also, when is the deadline for when the Rodriguez prospect can then sign? I would love to see another young prospect signing this year.
Monday, 14. July 2008
How many Reds do you see in BA’s top 100? Which ones? Where would they be ranked?
There is still some talent in the system but there has definitely been a drop off from last year. I’m hoping that it’s not that big of a drop though.
Monday, 14. July 2008
Thanks for the list, by the way. I think our system is pretty deep considering that we plucked 4 players from the top and we could still see 3-4 players in the Top-100 lists come the offseason.
Monday, 14. July 2008
re omissions on your quick list- Mr. Manuel??
Do you have any insight re Mr. Howell getting bumped to Sarasota, he is an ‘08 pick (like 12th round) and quite young. 19 yrs old. But Sarasota did not appear to be needing a filler. Is he a legit prospect?
Tyler Pelland, struggled in Apr/May but appears to be pulling it together, given your inclusion of him in your “top ten” would assume he is back in the picture for Cincy?
Todd Coffey, has failed 3 times in Cincy now, and was bad initially in Louisville but seems to have picked it up recently. Is that law of avg or has he perhaps picked up a new pitch or something?
thx
Monday, 14. July 2008
Wanderin,
Duran has slumped lately, but his upside is through the roof. Rodriguez can’t sign until August 15th I think…
jake,
I would say Frazier, Soto and maybe Stubbs. Thompson could, but it depends on how he does from here on out.
Chi Redsfan,
I think Howell is just a fill in. Petr Cech is also on their roster, but neither guy is playing much. I think Pelland has a good shot to be in the bigs as a reliever soon. Not sure on Coffey…. maybe he can locate his fastball again.
Monday, 14. July 2008
Doug, did you forget Danny Dorn or have you lost respect for him?
Monday, 14. July 2008
Do you think that Yonder Alonso will jump to the top of the prospect list and into the top 100 when he signs?
You put together a good quick list, the only missing name that jumped out to me was Zach Stewart, I think i’d have him between Wood and Smith. He looks like a steal. I might have included Hildenbrandt and Ravin towards the bottom of the list.
Monday, 14. July 2008
pw,
Left Dorn off accidentally.
Kyle,
Alonso likely jumps to the head of the list and into the top 100 once he signs. Stewart is likely up on the pitchers list too. I thought about Hildenbrandt at the end of the pitchers list, but figured it may be a bit premature.
Monday, 14. July 2008
I think you are being a little hard on Rosales. His LD% is better this year and his BABIP is down I watched him early in the year and got a lot of tough breaks. The lower BB% is worrisome.
I think there are some other guys that have struggled that could belong on the list.
Tuesday, 15. July 2008
The walks are the concern with Rosales. He has looked lost at the plate sometimes this year and it had me concerned earlier in the year.
Tuesday, 15. July 2008
Assuming Alonso signs, i’d think the new Reds top 10 would have to look something like this (I’m assuming that Thompson will play enough to lose prospect status):
1. Yonder Alonso, 1B
2. Todd Frazier, SS
3. Kyle Lotzkar, SP
4. Drew Stubbs, CF
5. Devin Mesoraco, C
6. Neftali Soto, 3B/LF
7. Chris Valaika, SS
8. Josh Roencike, RP
9. Zack Stewart, RP
10. Shaun Cumberland, OF
Tuesday, 15. July 2008
In the most recent “Ask BA” Todd Frazier (position TBA) was named as the Reds’ top prospect. Once Alonso signs he will be considered #1.
Tuesday, 15. July 2008
What players do you think will be earning a promotion (Frazier, etc)?
Tuesday, 15. July 2008
I think Frazier stays in High A the rest of this year and starts next year in AA. Heisey and Henry each might get bumped up a level toward teh end of the season. Ramon Geronimo is long overdue a promotion to AA. Waring prossibly to make room for Soto in Dayton once Waring is healthy again. I’d like to see Oliveras moved from the GCL Reds to Billings, and Alex Buchholz will likely get a cup of coffee in Dayton I think. Zack Stewart is the only other person I can think of who might get promoted as he is dominating Low A.
Tuesday, 15. July 2008
I don’t know if the Reds know what to do with Pelland, exactly. After throwing just 2 innings all spring training (as I recall), his role and usage in relief has been scattershot and he’s only thrown 37 innings all year…so the 10.1 scoreless innings streak he’s on has done wonders for the ERA.
I don’t think he’s a good candidate for a LOOGY role, as his control is a less reliable than you’d like for a 1- or 2-batter guy. I’d imagine he gets the callup in September, and then gets a very real shot at taking over Affeldt’s bullpen spot next spring. Not sure, but he might be a 6-year minor league free agent if he doesn’t make the Reds’ roster next season.
Tuesday, 15. July 2008
Ben Jukich has made a name for himself this season in Chattanooga. He is on at least equal ground with Valiquette.
Tuesday, 15. July 2008
Tim,
I don’t think there are many more promotions to come. I think it will depend on who is close to getting into the playoffs. If Chattanooga is close, then I think Frazier and a few other guys might get a bump for the last month or so (like last year when Cueto and Dorn were sent there.
DA,
I like Pellands overall stuff. He can be erratic at times though.
rob,
I like Ben Jukich, I do…. but I am not sure about his major league future. He has a big curveball and a fastball that tops out at 90 on good days.
Tuesday, 15. July 2008
I like Jukich too, but I like Valiquettes stuff better and the fact that he is atleast 4 years younger than Ben.
My top ten prospects at this point (assuming Alonso signs and Thompson stays eligible)
Yonder Alonso
Todd Frazier
Devin Mesoraco
Drew Stubbs
Daryl Thompson
Chris Valaika
Neftali Soto
Kyle Lotzkar
Josh Roenicke
Zach Stewart
(Duran, Maloney, Francisco, Cumberland, and Wood come next in some order)