He has pitched better of late, so hopefully he keeps it going in Cincinnati.

John Sickels had a question and answer session yesterday on his site. 1 question per user so I took my question and asked this:

Doug - So far this season he has sat 90-94 MPH with his FB and hit as high as 97 MPH. If he has turned a corner in terms of his FB after recovering from his shoulder surgery, how legit of a prospect can he become?

Sickels - I have liked Thompson since he was in high school: I Shadow-drafted him for my fake Twins farm system. If he’s fully healthy and can sustain that velocity, he could end up being an impressive pitcher…number 3 starter possibly. That’s a big if and assumes durability which he has not shown to this point. He might end up as a really good short reliever.

I tend to agree with him. Thompson has the chance to be someone real good for the team, but he needs to really show that he can do it for a full season and maintain his stuff throughout. So far, it is looking really good though.

Yesterday the first Baseball America Hot Sheet came out and like I noted, Daryl Thompson was nowhere to be found despite a very impressive line. I talked to him briefly about it and here is what he had to say on Thompson:

We’ll definitely be trying to track down more on Thompson…If he actually hit 97 that would be the best velocity we’ve ever heard about from him pre- or post-surgery. My sense is that with two Reds in the top five it was hard to get a third Red on…but if he keeps it up he’ll be there. Heck, Brandon Waring and even Juan Francisco were candidates as well…Reds have a number of guys producing right now.

I think we will be hearing more about Thompson from around the prospecting world soon enough if he continues.

Homer Bailey is getting some praise from former teammate Chad Moeller. There have been times in the past where Moeller, while a teammate of Bailey would not say a lot about him and C Trent Rosecrans made note that you could tell a lot by what Moeller wouldn’t say. Here is what Moeller had to say in The Citizens Voice about Bailey in his last start:

“I caught him some last year and that’s the best I’ve seen him,” Moeller said. “Command, velocity, his fastball was kind of cutting across the strike zone. That was a different pitcher than I saw last year.”

I watched the game and Moeller is telling the truth. His velocity wasn’t as high as it has been in the past, but still was good as he got up to 96 MPH. Bailey has been working on a cut fastball and a slider along with his mechanics this year, it looks like they are beginning to pay off.

Baseball America tabs 2 Reds in this weeks Hot Sheet

Baseball America unveils its ‘Prospect Hot Sheet‘ every Friday this year and taps into who the hottest players in the minor leagues are. The Reds, featuring one of the best systems in baseball have landed two prospects on the first Hot Sheet of the year.

Dayton 3B Todd Frazier comes in at #3 on the list

• So far Todd is hitting .476/.621/1.190 through the first week. He has been simply incredible thus far.

Louisville Bats RHP Homer Bailey comes in at #4 on the list

• Bailey is 1-0 with a 0.71 ERA, 2 walks, 9 strikeouts and 9 hits in 12.2 innings pitched.

One guy that I fully expected to see on there and was shocked when he wasn’t was Daryl Thompson (Photo: Tim Evearitt/The Chattanoogan). So far this year he is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA, 1 walk, 13 strikeouts and just 5 hits allowed in 12 innings. I will be asking about him in the chat, so hopefully it gets answered as far as if he was in consideration and close, because with numbers like that its tough to be overlooked, but I think he was.

After a week of the season in the books I sat down today and got the first podcast of the season done. Its my first one ever, so its bound to be a little rough. It is 30 minutes long and 14.5 MB in size.

Topics discussed include:
Pitching prospects Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Daryl Thompson, Travis Wood and more.
Hitters Todd Frazier, Brandon Waring, Juan Francisco, Chris Valaika, Adam Rosales, Jay Bruce and more.
Have the Reds been too cautious with the placement of their prospects?

 

 Redsminorleagues.com Podcast #1 [31:35m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Juan Duran could play this year

Ben Badler at Baseball America says that Juan Duran (Photo creating by reader Tom) could spend some time in the GCL this year, but right now is dealing with an elbow injury. The GCL uses a DH, so getting at bats shouldn’t be a problem.

Peek at the Draft

Jim Callis, also of Baseball America does a brief little rundown of who/why the Reds should draft in June. He eventually comes to the point where he thinks they end up with a right handed pitcher at #7.

Opening Week of the Minors

The opening week is now over after 4 games for the teams. All of the teams are 2-2 except Dayton who fell to 1-3 in the opening week. There were some guys who had real good weeks. Drew Stubbs (who I plan on writing something on this week) leads the FSL in walks after 1 week. Juan Francisco has a nice even 1.000 OPS. Tom Shearn and Tyler Pelland took a no hitter into the final inning of a double header before Ricky Stone allowed a hit. Todd Frazier has a 6-1 walk to strikeout ratio and is boasting a 1.316 OPS.  BJ Szymanski has absolutely killed the ball so far this year with a double, triple and 2 HR in just 12 at bats. Daryl Thompson made a strong debut for Chattanooga with 6 innings and 5 strikeouts.  Jerry Hairston and Jolbert Cabrera have killed the ball down in Louisville as both have OPS’s over 1.100. Homer Bailey walked just 1 batter in 7 innings in the season opener and threw just 83 pitches.

David Paschall wrote an article on Cody Strait who will make his second season debut with the Lookouts. Here are some of the highlights:

The most frightening moment for the Chattanooga Lookouts last season occurred May 20 at AT&T Field, when right fielder Cody Strait foul tipped a ball into his right eye and fractured his orbital socket.

“After I got hurt, I kept struggling for a while, but I had a good last month and feel strong and healthy and ready to go.”

“Cody is not scared,” (Jamie) Dismuke said. “He’s digging in there and taking it like a champ like nothing went on, and that was the part I was scared of. I thought he might be a little tentative, but he’s shown no effects of it at all.”

Said Strait: “I just lost a year is basically how I’m looking at it, so now I’m right back where I started in ’07. I’m ready to go.”

Strait was a strong prospect coming into last year showing off good power and speed in the FSL, but last year he kind of fell apart. He has lots of tools and he dealt with the eye injury, which certainly caused him some problems last year. He is certainly worth following this year as his package of tools aren’t easily matched throughout the system.

Kevin Czerwinski of Milb.com wrote an article on 10 Names to Know in the International League. Our Reds had 2 names on the list:

1. Jay Bruce, OF
Louisville Bats (Cincinnati)

The former first-rounder excelled at three levels last year, including 187 at-bats with Louisville. Overall, he hit .319 with 26 homers, 89 RBIs and 80 extra-base hits. He was named the top prospect in all of baseball by MiLB.com, and with good reason. He got nicked up early in camp with a strained quadriceps muscle, costing him nearly a week of playing time, and a few more months at Triple-A clearly won’t stop him. He’s going to be in the heart of the Cincinnati order before long.

8. Homer Bailey, RHP
Louisville Bats (Cincinnati)

Bailey got a taste of life in Cincinnati last season, going 4-2 with a 5.76 ERA in nine starts. He was also 6-3 with a 3.07 ERA in 12 starts at Louisville, putting him a position to win a spot in the Reds’ starting rotation this spring. Didn’t happen. The former first-rounder had a rough spring (1-3, 5.21 ERA, 24 hits allowed and 16 walks in 19 innings), so from that standpoint his being sent back down wasn’t much of a surprise. The fact that he missed a big chunk of last year with a groin injury also prevented him from gaining some valuable mound time — time he’ll be able to make up over the next few months in Louisville.

Tim Leonard has an International League preview on Milb.com. Here is what he has to say on our Louisville Bats:

Louisville Bats
2007 Results: 73-70
2008 Manager: Rick Sweet
Things to look forward to: Jay Bruce. The center fielder seems destined to become a star. Before that happens, he’ll spend a little more time in Louisville after the Reds optioned the top prospect in baseball to Triple-A during Spring Training. Don’t wait until May or June to go to Louisville Slugger Field — Bruce likely won’t be there too long. … Highly touted right-hander Homer Bailey also wound up in Louisville after struggling during Spring Training. Bailey, who won’t turn 22 until May, was expected to have the inside track for a spot in the Reds’ rotation. With two rookies in the Reds rotation, Bailey’s stay at Louisville could be longer than Bruce’s. … The Dave Matthews Band will play a concert at Louisville Slugger Field on Aug. 1. It will be the band’s first appearance in Louisville since 1995. Country music legend Willie Nelson also will perform that night. Tickets for the show are $65 for lower-bowl reserved seats and $55 for upper-deck seats. … The Triple-A All-Star Game will be played at Louisville Slugger Field on July 16. The game will feature top players from Minor League Baseball’s top two circuits, the International League and the Pacific Coast League. This will be Louisville’s second Triple-A All-Star Game — the other was in 1991, when National League affiliates defeated the American League affiliates. Louisville will become the first International League city to play host to the current incarnation of the All-Star Game.

C.L. Brown wrote an article on Homer Bailey for the Courier Journal. Here are some of the highlights from that one.

“We lose track of how hard this game is,” Bailey said yesterday. “There’s a reason there are only a select few up there and there’s even a more select few that excel. It’s not something that’s going to be learned overnight.”

Bailey will be the Bats’ opening-day pitcher. It’s not something he expected, but he’s learning not to rush his ascent to the major leagues.

“I have probably (less) patience than anybody,” he said. “When I’m not doing as well as I can, I do have to sit back and say, ‘Take a look at the big picture. Take a step back and slow down and get everything under control.’ ”

“He’s still 21 years old; people forget about that,” (Ricky) Stone said. “He moved so quickly and has done so well so early, and now they’re saying his control is not there; well, his control is there.

“He’s got to get his confidence. He’s going to get it down here (Triple-A) and going to go right at hitters.”

Louisville pitching coach Ted Power said Bailey’s control correlates to how he goes at those batters.

“It’s just a matter of consistency,” Power said. “He’s got to throw strikes earlier in the count so they can’t sit on certain pitches and he’s not forced to throw his second- or third-best pitch when he’s behind in the count instead of his fastball.”

Both Power and Bailey said his problems have been more mental than mechanical. He admitted he has been in situations on the mound where he has lost focus.

“You could be out there mowing the lawn and start thinking about something else, and you look back like, ‘I just missed a spot there,’ ” Bailey said. “It’s kind of the same thing.”

Good stuff from Brown there. Go read the entire article.

The Enquirer ran a whole bunch of short articles on prospects so there is a lot of articles, but not a lot to most of them.

John Fay wrote one on the Young Arms. He touches on the recent history of the Reds pitching prospects.

John also wrote about the 4 young third basemen in the system. He has a few notes on Todd Frazier, Juan Francisco, Adam Rosales and Brandon Waring. Terry Reynolds provides the small blurbs on each player.

John Fay also has an article about stockpiling young talent in the system.  Terry Reynolds has one of my favorite sayings about the draft in this article.

“You try to pick out who you think has the highest ceiling based on the tools. When you try to draft for need, you get in trouble.”

Jeff Brantley wrote ’scouting reports’ on Cueto, Volquez and Bailey. He actaully has scouting reports on Cueto (Photo: Tim Evearitt/The Chattanoogan) and Volquez but like I have noticed, he seems to have something against Homer Bailey. For the other two, he lists pitches they throw and how they throw them. For Bailey he doesn’t list any pitches, talks about his fastball, dogs his curveball for not being a short breaking one (despite the fact that he has gotten plenty of good hitters swinging and missing or standing there looking at it all spring) and doesn’t mention his changeup that has looked promising this spring or his slider or cutter that he has been working on this spring.

Shannon Russell wrote an article on the Young Bats in the system. It talks about batting average way too much as a way to determine a good hitter for my liking but talks about the impact Votto and Bruce could have on the team.

David Paschall of the Chattanooga Times Free Press has an article up on Drew Stubbs(Photo: MWLGuide.com). Here are some of the highlights from the article:

“I’ve had a pretty good spring, and if I can keep up the things I’ve been doing and build off that, I think I’ll be there before too long,” Stubbs said. “Being consistent in all phases of the game is the main thing. Rather than being great a few days of the week, I need to be good every day. That’s my goal.”

“I’ve played a couple of intrasquad games against him, and he looked pretty good,” new Lookouts manager Mike Goff said. “He’s very talented physically, and he’s a guy I’m hoping before the year is over that we’ll see in Chattanooga.”

Bailey sent to Louisville

It finally happened yesterday. Shouldn’t have really been a surprise to anyone, but there are some interesting things from Wayne Krivksy about it this morning on XM Radio. Wayne said that the Reds had Bailey (Photo: Brita Meng Outzen/MLB.com) working on specific things during the spring, including his mechanics (which was talked about a lot). Other things were his slider and his cutter. The Reds and Bailey discussed what that he needed to work on in AAA.

Louisville keeps winning

Louisville only has a few losses this spring and kept their winning ways going yesterday on the back of a strong start by Matt Maloney. The big lefty allowed 4 hits and a walk in 5 shutout innings while striking out 5 batters. Jay Bruce led the hitting attack with an RBI triple. Ryan Hanigan and Jerry Gil also had RBI doubles.  Luis Bolivar also had an RBI in the game.

The rosters aren’t close to being out yet, so this is all assumption on my part on who will be on the roster. I am going to list 4 players to watch for each team (assuming they are assigned where I believe they will be assigned) and give a quick reason or two to really watch this guy.

1. Jay Bruce - OF

Reason to watch - Bruce (photo: Tim Evearitt) is the best prospect in baseball, but there are a few things he could improve on. I don’t expect him to be in Louisville long, but while he is there he is the number 1 guy to keep an eye on both in terms of talent and in terms of importance.

2. Homer Bailey - RHP

Reason to wach - Bailey appears to be healthy this year aftet struggling with groin issues for the better part of last year. The pressure won’t be on him as much this year with a little more stability in the Reds rotation. Bailey could work on his control a little bit as well as his offspeed stuff (change up more than curve). Getting consistent is more important for Bailey than the overall results in Louisvile.

3. Josh Roenicke - RHP

Reason to watch - Roenicke could be the future closer, but he could step up as soon as this year to really add to the Reds bullpen. He will likely begin in Louisville as the closer to work on his overall stuff and get his innings in under pressure. Stuff wise, he is a top notch closing prospect but he could likely use a little seasoning before being put into situations under pressure in the majors.

4. Tyler Pelland - LHP

Reason to watch - Being a left handed relief prospect is something that the Reds could use if someone like Mike Stanton struggles at the big league level. This will be Pellands first full season as a reliever but he has already spent time in AAA with success. Having a strong season will really help boost the pressure on the Reds bullpen guys to succeed.

Yesterday I covered the Chattanooga Lookouts, Tuesday I covered the Sarasota Reds and Monday I coverd the Dayton Dragons. Tomorrow I plan on covering some of the other guys to keep an eye on for different reasons.

3/10/08 Game Preview 

Tonight is the first time the Reds will be on TV this year and its a wonderful thing too. Homer Bailey will take the mound versus Joba Chamberlain and the Yankees tonight.  Should be a fun night for prospect geeks like myself. Jay Bruce will lead off and play CF while Joey Votto will bat 7th and play 1B. Brad Salmon and Tom Shearn are also scheduled to pitch in the game.

Homer Bailey may be feeling a little pressure to succeed tonight against a stacked Yankees lineup that will run out Jeter, Abreu, Damon, Rodriguez, Giambi, Posada and Matsui. There are open spots in the rotation, but Johnny Cueto has been the sensation this far in spring training in Reds camp.

Roster Moves

Sergio Valenzuela has been shipped back to the Braves. Krivsky struck gold last year in the Rule V draft with Josh Hamilton and Jared Burton, but this years pick was a reach from the beginning and proved to be a pipe dream.

Ramon Ramirez was optioned to Minor League camp (AAA Louisville).