I haven’t updated this in a while. I am still having some software issues that isn’t making it easy to get the pitch fx data unless I literally go extract the data pitch by pitch…. and I love this stuff, but not that much. I still have lots of thoughts on the Reds though and while message boards are nice I figured I would put this on here.

Most of you are probably aware of Justin’s site On Baseball and The Reds (and if you aren’t…. you really should be, even if he is in the process of moving across the country and won’t be doing his site for a little bit). He does defensive calculations based on thehardballtimes revised zone rating. I kind of went in the same direction as him, but only used the qualified players (basically the every day starters) for each position to get an idea of how good each player is defensively. Here is how the math worked:

I took every player that qualified for a position (I kept it that way to keep things normal… a team having a backup centerfielder playing a corner outfield position in the late innings will skew the numbers for what the ‘average’ should be if we are talking about starters) and added up their innings, balls in zone, plays and out of zone plays made. I then calculated the average zone rating of the position by taking their total plays made and dividing by their balls in zone. Then I took that number, multiplied it by each specific players balls in zone to get what they should be expected to get. Any number lower than that of actual plays made means they are a negative defender, while the numbers higher meant they were a positive one. For the balls out of zone, I just simply took the total out of zone plays made and divided it by the innings played for the entire group per position. Then I took that number and multiplied it by innings played per player to get an expected out of zone plays. Like earlier, higher than that number and you are above average and lower you are below average. Its certainly not perfect, but I think its a fairly accurate tool to work with.

With all of that said, I went ahead and did the math the other day for all games through June 26th, 2008. Our Reds didn’t do so hot all around.

Here is how we stacked up per position and a little commentary added by me.

1B Joey Votto was +19.5 plays at first base. That is quite good, but it also does not count plays made while on the bag, just plays made in the field on balls hit to him. When he is on the bag, I don’t think he is quite average, so overall his rating wouldn’t be as high. It is interesting to note that on balls in his zone, he was barely above average, just below 2 plays above average. However on the balls outside of his zone he was far and away the best player at first base, over 8 plays better than the next best guy. To me, that would suggest he plays a little bit closer to the ‘out of zone’ area than the in zone area. All in all though, he is likely a little above average at first base.

2B Brandon Phillips was +3.4 plays at second base. Thats not quite as good as expected when I decided to do this and is well off pace for what he was at last year. He is really excelling on the balls in his zone where he ranks 2nd among all qualifiers at +9.6 plays, but on the ones out of the zone he is struggling this year at -6.1 plays which is second worst ahead of just Felipe Lopez. Total though, Phillips is an above average second baseman.

3B Edwin Encarnacion was -8.9 plays at 3B. That number falls in line with about what I expected it to be. He is below average on both balls in and out of the zone, although more so with the ones out of the zone. Overall, he is a below average third baseman.

SS is a position where the Reds didn’t have a qualifier with all of the injuries that have taken place. However, I took all of the guys who have played at SS for the Reds (minus Juan Castro) and just added their numbers all up and ran them as 1 player.  On the total, they were -13.7 plays. That would rank them 18th of 22 qualifiers. Only Paul Janish was close to average at less than 2 plays below average, while Hairston was nearly 5 plays below average and Keppinger was just over -7 plays below average.

LF Adam Dunn was at -2.9 plays. Dunn ranked 11th out of 15 qualified left fielders in total value. Interestingly, he wasn’t as bad as I expected. He was actually above average on balls in his zone at just over +2 plays. On the ones out of his zone however he was over -5. Carlos Quentin seemed to skew the numbers however as he comes in at -13 plays, while only one other player is even below -4 plays. Overall, Dunn is better than I anticipated, but still below average in LF.

CF is another position where the Reds didn’t have a qualifier. Just like at SS I added up all the players numbers who have started in CF and used them as a whole. The Reds centerfield group of Patterson/Hopper/Freel/Bruce/Hairston actually came in just above average at +1.26 plays. That group was led by Patterson at +4.3 plays and Freel at +2.1 plays. Jay Bruce and Jerry Hairston both were just over -2 plays while Norris Hopper was at -0.8 plays. The biggest thing was that the Reds played the balls in their zone very well, where they would have ranked 2nd overall. When they had to get to ones out of the zone however they were well below average where they ranked 16th out of 22 qualifiers.

RF Ken Griffey Jr was -13.22 plays. Undoubtedly the worst defensive player on our team. The interesting part is, he isn’t actually that bad on getting to balls outsize of his zone, where he was just -2 plays. When he had to get to the ones in his zone he was over -11 plays. Maybe he runs better toward the gap and down the line than he does forward or backward. Not really sure, but it is quite strange.

Of those 7 positions the Reds were above average at 3 of them: Second base, first base and centerfield. Unfortunately for them, the centerfielder that was the best is absolutely a black hole on offense. They were well below average at 3 positions: Shortstop, right field and 3B. Griffey isn’t coming back next year, so odds are the defense over there will improve. Then there was left field were Dunn was just merely below average, albeit down the list on the total value.

All in all, the Reds defense is subpar and it needs improving. It could see a major rehauling next year depending on what happens with Adam Dunn. If things go a certain way the Reds would have a new set of outfielders defensively with Griffey and Dunn gone, while Bruce would likely shift to RF in favor of a centerfielder. It could also mean a different shortstop, be it Alex Gonzalez or someone else with maybe a shift of Edwin to LF and Keppinger to 3B. There are lots of possibilities of what could happen, but one thing is certain…. this team needs to get a lot better defensively before they can truly be a good team.