July 22nd Reds defense update

July 22nd, 2008 · 1 Comment

To go on with this post from the last day of June I thought it would be a good time to check in on how our defense is to this point in the season. Quick methodology: I took the top 50 players at each position by innings, calculated their total defensive value by adding up their in zone value (by taking the combined RZR and multiplying it by their BIZ then subtracting their actual Plays in Zone by that number) and their out of zone value (by taking the combined out of zone plays divided by innings played and multiplying that number by the players innings played then subtracting that number from their actual out of zone plays made) and then added those two numbers together. I wanted to note for middle infielders this number doesn’t include their ability to turn a double play and for first baseman its only based on their ability to field the balls hit to them and not their ability to make plays on throws from their fielders. It only measures their range.

First Base

Joey Votto is still among the league leaders here. On plays in his zone he is less than 1 play below average, however on plays out of his zone he is just over 20 plays above average. Total, he is +20.15 plays. While he still has issues fielding throws at first base, the guy is a vacuum when it comes to balls hit at him and I feel it certainly outweighs his current shortcomings on throws.

Second Base

Brandon Phillips as you would expect is among the leaders at second base again. He seems to make all the plays in his zone, as he is just over +11 plays on balls in his zone. He is however a little less than -1 plays out of his zone. The overall value is still +10.43 plays. That ranks him 4th among all second baseman.

Shortstop

Shortstop is an interesting position for the Reds because they have used so many of them. We will start with Jerry Hairston Jr. He is slightly below average on both balls in and out of his zone and comes in at -2 plays (although given full playing time he would likely be looking around -7 plays).

Next we can look at Jeff Keppinger, who is well below average on balls in and out of his zone, at -4.5 on both. His total value is at -8.99 plays (although when adjusted for full playing time it would be closer to -14 plays).

Finally there was Paul Janish, who was above average on the balls in his zone, but below average on the balls out of his zone. He only played 162 innings, some of which came as a late inning guy, so I would suggest we take his out of zone plays with a grain of salt given the sample.

Third Base

Edwin Encarnacion is sure killing the ball isn’t he? Yeah, thats a bad way to start off talking about someone’s defense, but Edwin has been Edwin. Errors and lack of plays defensively. While my eyes tell me he has improved, the numbers don’t say the same thing. He is among the worst in the league in both in and out of zone plays. His total value is -20.43 plays.

Left Field

Adam Dunn continues to impress this year in the field. While he still has a ‘what the %$^@’ moment every now and again, his defense is much improved this year. He is actually above average on the plays in his zone at +3.9 plays. The out of zone plays are what are bringing him down though, where he is -5.22 plays. Still, his overall value is at -1.31 plays, which compared to the past few years is about a 25-30 play difference. Thats HUGE for Dunn.

Center Field

Like shortstop, the Reds have had several guys spend time in CF this year. We can start off with everyone’s favorite, Corey Patterson. Patterson is slightly above average on balls in his zone, and slightly below average on balls out of his zone. His total overall value is -0.46 plays.

Jay Bruce has also been slightly above average on balls inside of his zone this year. He has had trouble with the ones out of his zone a little bit though where he is -4.3 plays. His overall total value is -3.2 (but adjusted for full playing time would be closer to -9).

Right Field

Ken Griffey Jr is way below average on the balls in his zone and middle of the road below average on balls out of his zone. While that doesn’t make perfect sense, I think it has more to do with running in on a baseball rather than running sideways at a baseball. Overall though, the guy is downright bad. His -14.96 plays rank him 3rd worst in baseball among the 50 top innings players.

Overview

Between right field, third base and shortstop our team defense has really cost us some runs. Using Chris Dial’s linear weights system for defensive run values, the combined total of those guys versus just the average has cost us nearly 38 runs this season. That is pushing 4 wins defensively for just those positions.

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1 response so far ↓

  • 1 MSG H // Jul 23, 2008 at 12:54 pm

    Seems like Bruce might be better suited in RF. What about Keppinger at 3rd? With Dunns respectable defense now, he is truly earning his keep. In years past, his bad defense was giving away too many runs, sort of subtracting from what he produced at the plate to make him way over paid. It will be interesting to see if Jocketty does anything in the next week.

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