The draft this year will be June 4th through June 6th.
There are new rules for the draft this year. Unlike in past seasons, where there were ‘slot recommendations’ that went without punishment aside from the deals not being approved until a few days before the signing date no matter when the deal was agreed upon, teams now have a hard cap on money that they can spend based upon the slot money for where they select. The amount you can spend in the first 10 rounds is the slot money for all of those picks. If a team fails to sign a player in a spot within the first 10 rounds, they lose that money from their overall budget. That means you can’t just ante up and spend all of your money on your #1 pick and not sign anyone else. But, you could of course spend 80% of your budget on the first pick and then sign a bunch of college seniors for low-ball amounts since they don’t have much leverage.
Here is where the Reds picks will fall in the first 10 rounds and the ‘slot’ for each pick, leaving the Reds with a total of $6,653,800 to spend for their first 10 round picks (information from Baseball America):
| Pick | Slot Suggestion |
| 14 | $2,375,000 |
| 49 | $1,025,900 |
| 57 | $897,800 |
| 78 | $649,700 |
| 109 | $436,800 |
| 142 | $317,800 |
| 172 | $237,900 |
| 202 | $178,300 |
| 232 | $146,000 |
| 262 | $136,300 |
| 292 | $127,300 |
| 322 | $125,000 |
The Reds have plenty of picks in the first 10 rounds, so they should be able to add some quality talent and depth in those rounds. One thing to note is that after the 10th round, a team can only spend $100,000 per pick or less without punishment. If a player is signed after the 10th round for more than $100,000 their bonus will count toward the draft budget for the team.
My general idea behind a draft is to go with the best player available without regard to the position that they play. The reasoning is pretty simple: prospects don’t make it often enough for you to draft for a need and if you get a player who is good enough to be a Major Leaguer but is blocked in your system, you can always trade someone down the road to fill a need where you need it.
There have been a few mock drafts already, so here is a quick look at some information from those places.
Matt Garrioch has up a 40 round ‘mock draft’, though at this point it is more of a player ranking system that is just in the order of the players perceived talent rather than exactly where they are believed to do. He has the Reds taking left handed high school pitcher Max Fried out of Harvard-Westlake in California. Here is a quick scouting report:
Max Fried: His fastball works in the 90-93 MPH range and has touched 95 and has some sink to it. His curveball is a 12-6 style curve and is a quality pitch that he has been able to throw for strikes. His change up is his third pitch and it is viewed as a quality pitch that should be average to above-average in the future. He also has a cutter.
Jonathan Mayo has not done a full first round mock draft yet, only going 1-10 last week with his first draft projection. He has ranked his top 100 prospects though and has these guys in the 12-16 range on his Top 100:
Courtney Hawkins: He profiles best as a corner outfielder with plenty of power, though he has an aggressive plate approach that must be cleaned up at the next level. Some are concerned about his strikeouts, though they are related to his plate approach more so than bat speed.
Deven Marrero: If this name sounds familiar, it should. The Reds drafted him in the 17th round in 2009 but were unable to sign him. He is a good defensive shortstop where all of his defensive tools are considered above average. His bat is also solid, though he is more of a gap-power hitter than a home run power hitter.
David Dahl:He has some moderate power, but is more of an average first hitter with good speed. The high schooler has drawn some comparisons to Johnny Damon, which I find strange since he has a good arm and Damon throws like a girl. His swing certainly isn’t pretty, but he gets the job done with it.
Stephen Piscotty: The Standford third baseman has some good raw power to work with and can hit to all fields. He looks like he can stick at third base defensively, but also has played some outfield.
Andrew Heaney: The Oklahoma State left hander can get his fastball up to 93 MPH, but works in the 88-91 MPH range. He throws a very good curveball and also mixes in a strong change up. Heaney has also shown very good control.
Overall, this draft is considered to be a rather weak draft, with one analyst suggesting this is the weakest crop for college position players he has ever seen. I would be surprised to see the draft be worse than the 2000 draft, which was downright atrocious. Three of the top 10 players have negative career WAR and five other guys in the Top 10 never even saw the Major Leagues. Adrian Gonzalez went #1 overall and has been a stud. Rocco Baldelli went 6th overall and was good while it lasted. Some guy named Utley went at #15 and Adam Wainwright and Kelly Johnson (both Braves picks) were supplemental first rounders. Aside from those guys, no one in the first, supplemental first or second round has even accrued 5 WAR in their careers. There will be more to come over the next two weeks leading up to the draft as more information comes out and players are linked to teams and more and more mock drafts begin to find their way out.