The Cincinnati Reds completed their 2012 draft yesterday after three days, 42 picks and years of work by the scouting department. Today I thought it would be a good time to give the draft some thoughts and review/grade the job that the Reds did.
Background
Coming into the 2012 draft, national writers had mentioned that this was the worst draft class since the 2000 class, which is likely the worst draft class in the history of the game (Adrian Gonzalez went #1 overall. Five of the top 10 picks never made the Majors and only Rocco Baldelli and Adrian Gonzalez posted a career WAR over 0.2 until Chase Utley at #15. Then between #16 and 30 only Adam Wainwright has a career WAR over 5.0. Needless to say, that draft was atrocious. Compared to the Super Draft of 2005, where guys have had less time, 11 players taken in the first round already have topped 5 WAR including 10 players with more than 10 WAR). The college bats were called perhaps the worst in the history of the draft. So, with all of that knowledge, expectations for the draft were tempered by most, especially those drafting outside of the Top 5.
Rounds 1 and 2
In the first round the Reds were linked pre-draft to a whole slew of players, all from the college ranks. Several pitchers and several hitters. They went out and called the name of a high school pitcher who was ranked in the 30-35 range on most national draft boards with RHP Nick Travieso. To be fair and honest, he was off of my radar before the draft. The Reds drafted 14th and then 49th, so I hadn’t really checked into the guys in the range where he was ranked nationally. So of course my initial shock of them drafting not only a high schooler, but a guy that I hadn’t even checked into left me scrambling to find scouting reports on him. I then proceeded to read several reports from different place and watch several videos of him and I was left with one question: How in the world did a kid with these scouting reports wind up ranked so low in this draft? Over the next 24 hours more information began to come out and I began to see how he may have slipped down the rankings some. He only started his senior season due to the fact that his father really tried to protect his arm from the wear and tear. For that same reason, he didn’t attend all of the showcases that most of the nations top prospects attend. Put it together and it would seem that some scouts simply discounted him for that because based purely on the scouting reports that seemingly everywhere had, he should have been ranked much higher than he was.
In the supplemental first round the Reds had two picks, #49 and #57. With the 49th pick the Reds again went to the high school ranks and picked outfielder Jesse Winker. He has the potential to be a big bat from the corner outfield with lots of power as well as the potential to hit for a good average. There isn’t a ton of defensive upside for Winker, but he provides a lot of potential with the bat and at a corner position in a system that is lacking a prototypical corner type bat. About 10 minutes later the Reds went to the college draft pool and picked up outfielder Jeff Gelalich from UCLA. A speedy center fielder who projects to have average power and a chance to hit for a good average.
The Reds got one of the steals of the draft according to Jim Callis when they took high schooler Tanner Rahier. The shortstop was ranked in the 30-40 range in national rankings. While he may eventually have to move off of shortstop, his bat has all of the potential and then some to play at third base with big time power potential, a good arm and good glove abilities and hands.
Rounds 3-5
In the third round the Reds found themselves heading back to the college pool, but this time they went with a pitcher from Memphis. Dan Langfield is a right hander who worked as a starter in college, but most places project as a future reliever. As a starter though he worked 92-94 MPH and has touched 97 with an above-average curveball and a change up. Baseball America actually had him rated higher than either of the Reds supplemental round picks (#60, compared to 105 and 94). He has struggled with his control some, but for a weak draft the ability to grab a big time arm with two above-average to plus pitches in the 3rd round seems like an excellent pick.
In the fourth round the Reds headed back to their college board and took Pepperdine right hander Jon Moscot. Moscot has four pitches to his repertoire, a fastball (2 and 4 seamer), change up, splitter and a slider. Control is his biggest attribute on the mound as he can throw the ball where he wants it. There is not a bunch of upside, but Moscot is a solid college guy who could be a quick mover in the system and could profile as a back end of the rotation starter.
The fifth round saw the Reds head back to the high schoolers with Mason Felt, a left hander from Georgia. Felt throws in the 87-90 MPH range, but there is room for added velocity in the future. He also features a good breaking ball in the low to mid 70’s and a change up in the 79-82 MPH range.
Rounds 6-10
The Reds took several guys who look like they could be depth on the farm with maybe some good defenders at the next level in there, but the biggest pick from this group could be the 10th rounder Jeremy Kivel, a right hander from high school in Texas. He blew out his knee and missed nearly the entire season. Coming into the year he was projected in the 2nd-3rd round because of a low 90’s fastball that has hit 96 in the past, a power curveball with good bite and a feeling for a change up. Big upside with Kivel that was proceeded by some more ‘safe’ picks in the previous rounds in this grouping.
The rest of the draft
In the 15th round the Reds took college senior Ben Klimesh who throws 91-96 MPH with a solid curveball and dominant numbers his senior season. He seems to be the most interesting guy from this group, though it is very interesting to note that in the 36th round the Reds selected a kid named Jarvis Flowers from a Texas high school who hasn’t played baseball since the 10th grade.
Overview and grading
As I noted, this draft was considered to be a weak one of historical proportions. Given that the draft was considered to be that weak, the Reds were able to focus on high upside players early on and also mixed in some lower upside, but safe production picks as well. With the most talent going in the earlier rounds, draft grades are going to be heavily weighted towards the front end of the draft. I like what the Reds were able to do early on quite a bit. They took some high upside arms and some high upside bats in the first 5 rounds. I would give the Reds an A grade for this draft. Clearly they need to be able to sign these guys in order to make that grade hold up, but the Reds certainly added quite a bit of upside to the farm with this draft.