RedsMinorLeagues.com 2014 Cincinnati Reds Top 25 Prospects List #11-15 Doug Gray October 30, 2013 35 Comments Today we are looking at the prospects ranked 11-15 on the 2014 Top 25 Cincinnati Reds prospects list. On Friday there will also be a chat to discuss the list, though I will also answer some questions each day in the comments section. All listed ages are the official age during the season, which is calculated by their age as of June 30th of the playing year. Subscribers will get to see the best tool for each player. 15. Jeremy Kivel | Right Handed Pitcher | 2013 Teams: Arizona League Reds Acquired: 10th Round, 2012 Draft | Height: 6′ 1″ | Weight: 200 lbs. | Age: 19 Kivel made his professional debut in 2013 for the Arizona League Reds with a 3.91 ERA in 50.2 innings. He struck out 56 batters and walked 23 while allowing four home runs. He struggled against lefties, posting a 6.62 ERA in 17.2 innings with 12 walks, 4 home runs allowed and 19 strikeouts. Against righties he dominated with a 2.45 ERA in 33 innings with 11 walks and 37 strikeouts. Team W L ERA SV IP H HR BB K WHIP BB% K% K/BB AZL Reds 0 2 3.91 0 50.2 50 4 23 56 1.44 9.9% 24.0% 2.4 14. Amir Garett | Left Handed Pitcher | 2013 Teams: Billings Mustangs & Dayton Dragons Acquired: 22nd Round, 2011 Draft | Height: 6′ 5″ | Weight: 210 lbs. | Age: 21 The left hander split his time between Billings and Dayton in 2013. He showed success in Billings with a 2.66 ERA in 23.2 innings with 10 walks and 17 strikeouts. He did struggle with Dayton though as he posted a 6.88 ERA in 34 innings with 16 walks and 15 strikeouts. He struggled against lefties who hit .321/.438/.396 with 10 walks and 6 strikeouts in 64 plate appearances. Team W L ERA SV IP H HR BB K WHIP BB% K% K/BB Billings 1 1 2.66 0 23.2 22 0 10 17 1.35 9.9% 16.8% 1.7 Dayton 1 3 6.88 0 34.0 40 4 16 15 1.65 10.3% 9.7% 0.9 Total 2 4 5.15 0 57.2 62 4 26 32 1.53 10.2% 12.5% 1.2 13. Tucker Barnhart | Catcher | 2013 Teams: Pensacola Blue Wahoos Acquired: 10th Round, 2009 Draft | Height: 5′ 11″ | Weight: 195 lbs. | Age: 22 Barnhart rebounded well from his time in Pensacola during 2012 as he posted a .260/.348/.348 line at the plate with 45 walks and 57 strikeouts. Behind the plate he continued to show good skills catching and throwing, where he gunned down 37% of attempted base runners. The switch hitter struggled from the right side of the plate as he hit just .172/.194/.234 in 69 plate appearances. He hit .280/.380/.375 from the left side with 43 walks and 45 strikeouts. Team PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB K AVG OBP SLG Pensacola 395 339 31 88 19 1 3 44 1 0 45 57 .260 .348 .348 12. KJ Franklin | Third Baseman | 2013 Teams: Arizona League Reds Acquired: 2nd Round, 2013 Draft | Height: 6′ 1″ | Weight: 220 lbs. | Age: 18 Franklin had an up and down season in his initial exposure to professional baseball but turned out a solid .260/.326/.364 line overall on the season. After struggling in July he turned it around in August with a .333/.393/.440 line to go with 6 walks and 19 strikeouts. He struggled defensively in 2013 as he made 20 errors in 37 games. Team PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB K AVG OBP SLG AZL Reds 196 173 17 45 15 0 1 25 1 1 13 53 .260 .326 .364 11. Daniel Corcino | Right Handed Pitcher | 2013 Teams: Louisville Bats Acquired: International Free Agent: 2008 | Height: 5′ 11″ | Weight: 205 lbs. Corcino really struggled to find consistency in 2013 from start to start and even inning to inning on some occasions. He posted a career worst 5.86 ERA in 129 innings with 73 walks and 90 strikeouts. He battled control problems throughout the year, walking four or more batters eight times on the season. Team W L ERA SV IP H HR BB K WHIP BB% K% K/BB Louisville 7 14 5.86 0 129.0 141 17 73 90 1.66 12.3% 15.2% 1.2 Scouting Notes [private_subscriber] 15. Jeremy Kivel Best tool: Fastball. Kivel was clocked as high as 99 MPH this summer and sits in the mid 90’s. 14. Amir Garrett Best tool: Fastball. Garrett topped out 97 MPH over the summer. When at his best he sat 91-95 MPH. 13. Tucker Barnhart Best tool: Throwing. Barnhart has gunned down 42% of opposing runners in his career with his above-average arm. 12. KJ Franklin Best tool: Power. Franklin shows off plus power potential with a quick bat and plenty of leverage in his swing. 11. Daniel Corcino Best tool: Slider. His slider stands out among his pitches as an above-average pitch when it is at its best. [/private_subscriber] 35 Responses The Duke October 30, 2013 My 25-11 11. Jon Moscot 12. Dan Corcino 13. Tucker Barnhart 14. Seth Mejias-Brean 15. Mark Armstrong 16. Jose Ortiz 17. Jackson Stephens 18. Cory Thompson 19. Jeremy Kivel 20. Jonathan Reynoso 21. KJ Franklin 22. Tanner Rahier 23. Sal Romano 24. Dan Langfield 25. Avain Rachal The Duke October 30, 2013 I just don’t see Garrett progressing much missing so much time every year, especially if he is still starting. He’ll be 22 years old next season, and he is still very raw in his third full professional season. stock October 30, 2013 Agree. That and his low K rate are why he didn’t make my top 25 Randy Shepherd October 30, 2013 Just saw were the Angels were thinking about trading Peter Bouojes, Mark Trambo, and Howie Hendrick plus some others. Would you trade Phillips, Bailey, Ryan Ludwick and some Minor League players for those three and a good young pitcher? Fish October 30, 2013 I don’t see why the angels would do that deal, they would be taking on a ton of salary for one year of bailey basically and giving up pieces. I think too many people look at trade scenarios that are too one sided. Why trade Kendrick to free up salary then take on Phillips? Why take Ludwick and give up Trumbo? I think Bailey has a decent amount of value, but they are only getting one year of him. KyWilson1 October 30, 2013 The loser in that deal would clearly be the Reds, Bailey alone could probably get Bourjos and Kendrick. If the Reds are going to deal Bailey they need to receive a big time prospect(Profar, Baez) or established star. Phillips should net a 50-100 type prospect. And Kendrick is the only player they have not named Trout that I would want. Alan Horn October 30, 2013 I agree. It makes no sense to trade either Bailey or Phillips if it doesn’t make the Reds better in 2014. Now is the Reds time to go for all the marbles. Doug Gray October 30, 2013 I am with Alan. I am not trading for the future when my team has the parts to win it all. Norwood Nate October 30, 2013 Speaking of trades…I see where the Mets could likely move Daniel Murphy so that they could move Eric Young Jr to 2B. He’d be a solid choice for a #2 hitter in the line up and have two years of team control. If the Reds are committed to exploring BP trades, and aren’t getting a 2B back as part of that return, then I think there could be something here to upgrade multiple positions. The Mets definitely have a lot of holes to fill, and if I recall correctly a glaring need is in the BP. I’m sure the Reds have the necessary pieces to work something out. Some BP help and a mid-level prospect for Murphy? Maybe one of Simon, Ondrusek, LeCure (although I’d hate to see him go). Murphy is a better hitter/worse fielder than Phillips, but he is a more ideal #2 hitter, and he has some position flexibility, although primarily a 2B at this point. Even if Phillips is flipped just for prospects the money saved would allow the Reds to make a hard charge after Choo, or they could target another FA need to upgrade 3B, OF, or SS. Possibly use that money to sign Michael Young to a short term deal (like two year) or get a stop gap CF, or both depending on the CF choice. MK October 30, 2013 That would sure be penthouse to outhouse defensively. Norwood Nate October 30, 2013 True. But if the Reds are going to trade him, I’d rather find an offensive upgrade than a defensive equivalent. The Reds need an major offensive boost. If Choo isn’t resigned then the Reds have two above average hitters for next year. I’m just spit balling ways to help out the offense. MK October 30, 2013 Murphy just isn’t a downgrade at second defensively.he is awful. If you are going to do that make Henry Rodriguez your second baseman. sultan of swaff October 30, 2013 Wow, I didn’t know Barnhart hit RHP so well. He’ll make an excellent complement to Mesoraco. Hanigan better come ready to play because my tolerance for .197 will be very low. I like what I saw from Franklin pre-draft with the bat, but you gotta think a move to the outfield could be in his future. That will make his path to the majors all the more challenging given the talent we have stacked up there. Corcino is a tough one. I think at this point he’s a reliever, which probably accounts for the drop in rank as much as the horrendous numbers. I’d put him in the bullpen and see if we can pare down his repertoire to increase the strikes…..a la Alfredo Simon. Finally, Garrett. Until the guy commits to baseball full time, this ranking is too generous. At his current rate of development, he’s a fringe-y relief prospect. If that’s the case, give me Chad Jones, who has every bit the arm as Garrett and is fully invested in pitching. Norwood Nate October 30, 2013 It’s interesting to see where people place young pitchers. Or what people value, it makes this whole process interesting. My #11-15 list #15 – Ismael Guillon: I know he struggled this year, but I was pretty high on him last year, in fact I believe I had him at #10. Still, a 4.75 ERA isn’t god-awful and his 134 K’s in 121 innings is pretty good. Plus over his last 7 games he only allowed 6 runs in 39.1 innings. So, I’m hoping he is able to overcome his control issues, because he has swing and miss stuff. #14 – Amir Garrett: Now that he’s 22 and not in full time ball, is it time to worry? I like his stuff, I like that he’s a lefty. I do find it odd that he struggled against LH hitters. #13 – Ben Lively: A very impressive first year, and I like to see he already made it to Dayton. Get him stretched out and see what he can do from here. #12 – Michael Lorenzen: Meteoric rise, but faltered toward the end. I hope it’s just his arm is tired, as he’s pitching more innings. If the experiment as a starter doesn’t go well, having a floor of a back end of the BP isn’t too bad. #11 – SMB: Love his hitting approach, bat, and glove. Would like to see some more prototypical power for his position, but still think he’s an everyday player in ML at some point. stock October 30, 2013 Good list Nate. I have Lorenzen lower and Lively higher but I have no problems with where you placed them. You and Duke raise a good point on Garrett. I don’t know if he is anything more than a RP given his focus. I also don’t like the fact that he doesn’t miss enough bats. Guillen is the interesting one on your list. I had him at #8 last year. I didn’t realize he finished the year so strong but here is why I left him outside my top 25. The Reds placed him on the 40 man roster last winter so they have but 2 more options on him. That means he is either in Cincinnati in 2016 or with another team. I think that means he is a RP (at least short term). For that reason I didn’t include him in my top 25. If not for that I think I would have because I think he could be a good SP by 2017. Him and Mark Armstrong are the two pitchers I will be most interested in seeing next year (and Langfield if he returns). Norwood Nate October 30, 2013 Yes, Guillon is probably an interesting case. He really struggled most of this year. But I think he can pull it together, because he has the stuff, and has pitched well as recent as last year. His stats over the last month+ are really good as well, so maybe it was just a matter of adjustments. With him being a LH and only 21 I can see him being ready in two years for at least some BP action. Let’s hope he can make it to Pensacola by the end of next year and then L-ville by the end of the 2015. Those being his last two option years should give a good indicator on whether he’s ready or not. By the end of 2015 if he does not fit into the rotation plans then hopefully he can become a K producing LH option out of the BP. I honestly hope that the Reds rotation won’t need him, though. Hopefully either Latos/Bailey are extended and we’ll have Stephenson, Leake, and Cingrani locking down the rotation, with Rogers/Travieso/Contreras/Corcino taking that 5th spot. But if Guillon continues to find some success and make the necessary adjustments as he appeared to do toward the end of last year, then he’d add great competition to that 5th starter spot in 2016. MK October 30, 2013 Guillon was lights out in August. Tony Fossas told me in April that Guillen would be the best pitcher in the league by the end of the year. And, he was correct. Doug Gray October 30, 2013 His ERA was good over that last month, but his walk rate was still quite high in August. It was improved, but still high. MK October 30, 2013 His WHIP the last month was 0.99 for August. Doug Gray October 30, 2013 He walked 15 batters in August. His WHIP and ERA were aided by the fact that his BABIP on the month was .190. It was easily his best month of the year, but he still didn’t post a 2.0 K/BB rate. Billy October 30, 2013 With ten spots left, I count 9 obvious guys: Contreras Ervin Hamilton Lively Lorenzen Rodriguez Stephenson Travieso Winker Who am I missing? Norwood Nate October 30, 2013 My guess would be Moscot. Possibly Armstrong based on where he was drafted and the signing bonus he got. stock October 30, 2013 It is Moscot. Doug Gray October 30, 2013 You seem awfully sure about that….. (and you should be). stock October 30, 2013 lol, Yeah I was pretty confident. You pour your heart onto these pages every day. It makes you somewhat predictable. I have no doubt your number one will have an R and an S in his name somewhere. I am also pretty sure that we may see a couple of L’s and a C along with Moscot tomorrow. The interesting thing about tomorrow will be who the odd man out is. Six players for Friday and only 5 spots. Then again assuming you think all six are close (and I think you do) it might be nice to do 7-10 tomorrow and 1-6 on Friday. Alpha Zero October 30, 2013 Regarding KJ Franklin, were the majority of his errors of the throwing/footwork variety, or does he just have an iron mitt? I hope it’s the former rather than the latter. It would be nice to see him stick at 3B since there’s a lot of depth at the OF corners. Doug Gray October 30, 2013 He made plenty of both, but error rates at the complex level doesn’t tell us much. Between the fields and especially with infielders, the first basemen, you can wind up with errors that won’t happen other places. I imagine he will be given plenty of time to play third and work things out. The Duke October 30, 2013 If he shows the possibility of even being average to slightly below, i’d stick with him there. stock October 30, 2013 No surprises for me in slots 11-15. 15. Jose Ortiz – A catcher who can hit. Too early to rank him higher but I love the potential. 14. Carlos Contreras – He might be higher but it seems the Reds want him to be a RP long term. Plus I like my top 13. 13. KJ Franklin – He is young and raw but really seemed to turn the corner in August. One of the hitters I am most excited to see in 2014. 12. Ryan LaMarre – He really turned it around the last 2 months. I am giving him a pass on the first couple of months as a readjustment to his 2012 injuries. He is the second hitter I am looking forward to seeing next year. 11. Tucker Barnhart – He will have a ML career. Worst case scenario Ryan Hanigan. wanderinredsfan October 30, 2013 Kivel and Aquino over Guillon and Waldrop?!? Not sure I understand this. Furthermore, I’m a lot higher on Cisco and Constante, than I am Corcino and Garrett at this point. Doug Gray October 30, 2013 I guess it is just the pure upside for me. I have always liked Waldrop, but have also felt that I am the low man on the totem pole when it comes to ranking him. With Kivel and Guillon, it is pretty simple for me. Guillon has shown extended periods of his career that he has no idea where the ball is going at all. Kivel has a much higher upside and hasn’t shown a wart on his resume nearly that big. RobL October 31, 2013 While not arguing the ranking, saying Kivel has the higher upside seems hard to believe. In even number seasons, Guillon has been flat out dominate with two plus pitches. Now, the likelihood that he consistently plays that way seems unlikely, but he was added to the 40 man roster at low A is the only proof I need of his high ceiling. Kivel may be more likely to reach his ceiling, but Guillon can be flat out filthy. Doug Gray October 31, 2013 While I have never seen Kivel in person, the reports I got on him are awfully strong. With Guillon, I have seen him pitch quite often. Good upside. Not Kivel upside though in my opinion. Ryan October 30, 2013 Could Chad Rogers become a Seth Maness type reliever instead of backend starter. Doug Gray October 30, 2013 If Rogers winds up in the bullpen, I expect more strikeouts and more walks than what Maness did this year.