Well, today we will be trying to have ourselves a little chat. With this new system there may be a learning curve as I have never used this before. So let’s try this thing out and hope all goes well.
Well guys, we are going to try this new chat out. Hopefully it goes well.
What do you think about the AA rotation being so loaded?
by tim
It certainly makes the team fun to watch on any given night. The rotation has five guys in it that ranked among the top 11 prospects in the system and all five were among the top 7 pitching prospects in the system. Only Nick Travieso and Ben Lively work their way into that group that makes up the Pensacola rotation. They have two guys that can sit in the mid-to-upper 90’s with Stephenson and Lorenzen, Contreras is now slouch who sits 92-95 and touches higher, an underrated Jon Moscot and former top pitching prospect Daniel Corcino. It is probably the deepest rotation in the minor leagues as far as prospects actually go.
Cool to see you doing a chat, Doug. Anything to spread a little optimism after this painful start! Can you talk about Corcino? Price sited him as a bright spot in early in camp, only for him to stink it up. And then he goes an throws a gem in his first start — but it was in AA. What’s his situation from a scouting standpoint? -RMR
by redsmanrick
I wrote about it some for subscribers on Monday (https://redsminorleagues.com/2014/04/07/cincinnati-reds-minor-league-scouting-notebook-21/), and I don’t want to give it all away since people are paying for that stuff. But, he looked more comfortable on the mound and he was able to locate his pitches. Last season that was a big part of the problem. He couldn’t throw strikes often and when he did, he was missing over the middle of the plate.
Just a reminder, Louisville is currently playing their game for today and Bakersfield has their game at 3pm (EST). These “education day” games are good and bad. I am not a big fan of them for the teams on the East Coast because it throws off my schedule, but when Bakersfield has them it means I don’t have to be up until 2am working…. so I don’t mind when they have them at all.
Who is the guy who may move the fastest through the system this year?
by bill
That one is tough to say. It isn’t always about how well a guy is performing because you need to factor in who is ahead of them at the next level too. With that said, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Jesse Winker or Phillip Ervin both see time at three levels this season. I think Robert Stephenson is going to be in the Majors at some point this season, which would be three levels for him as well.
How likely is it that Ryan LaMarre produces at the major league level this season?
by john kenkel
Probably not good. Not so much because I don’t think he can, because I am honestly not sure about that at this point. He is off to a slow start, but it is only four games. He has the tools to be productive. But I don’t think it’s likely that he produces this season because I just don’t see where the playing time would come from. Right now it seems that the team is set with their three starters in Ludwick, Hamilton and Bruce. Heisey is the backup for all three spots if someone goes down and I don’t see that changing this season, so it will be really tough to get time with the club.
Going to be tough for Dayton to win many games if they can’t score more runs. Pitching looks good. Do you feel like the hitters will come around?
by Rookie
I think some of them will. Phillip Ervin is hitting .133 and has 8 strikeouts in 15 at bats. That simply isn’t going to last. As we saw last year, he is simply too good for that to continue. Sebastian Elizalde is hitting .214 right now, though he has twice as many walks as strikeouts. He will get going when it comes to hits as well. The start has been slow, but this team as it is currently constructed is better than they have shown offensively.
Where is David Vidal?
by krozley
He is back in Arizona. The Reds decided to try to convert him to the catching position to revive his career after struggling so much the past two years at the plate. He caught some in college, so it isn’t something that is all brand new to him, so he may take to the position a bit quicker than some other catching converts have in the past. I would look for him to be in Billings when their season begins.
To go back to John’s question about Ryan LaMarre, he is having a nice defensive day for Louisville. He made a really nice grab in the gap in the first inning. This past inning he doubled a runner off at first base. While there are concerns about his bat, he is a very good defender in center.
Any word on Ju. Morrillo’s elbow? UCL?
by Rookie
At this moment, no. We probably won’t know for a few days what the extent of it is. The Dragons are on the road, so things will take a bit longer to get figured out than if they were at home.
Any word on Langfield? Is he going to be able to attempt a comeback soon, or is he still rehabbing?
by john
He is still rehabbing. I may be wrong, but I wouldn’t expect him until the rookie leagues are ready to go. Not sure that he will go to one of those teams, but I wouldn’t expect him until June. I will check in on that later today though and see what I can find out.
Best power in the system? Go.
by tim
Juan Duran has the best power potential, without question. The question is whether or not he has the best current power in the system. He just may. Donald Lutz would be in the discussion for current power as well.
Do you have a best guess for ROY?
by john kenkel
In the AL, Yordano Ventura. If you don’t know who he is, you should. Last night he broke the record for fastest pitch thrown by a starting pitcher in the Pitch F/X era with a 102.9 MPH fastball. Royals starter. Really, really fun to watch. In the NL things seem a bit more wide open to me. There are probably five guys that are not even in the Majors yet that could take the award.
Happy Birthday Doug, From the Jones family
by brian
Thanks guys! Good to see you, albeit briefly over the weekend.
Is this system as loaded as it seems on starting pitching, or is the last week just getting me overly excited? It is, after all, a very small sample size.
by john
It is loaded on starting pitching. Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus said last week that the RH Starting depth is plus-plus, while the LH Starting depth was average. Given there are a lot more righties than lefties in all systems, the Reds are still pretty stacked overall. There is a mix of elite arms, solid but productive arms and then breakout potential big arms at the lower levels.
Do we have any knuckleballers in our system?
by john kenkel
As far as I know, no, we don’t. There was on briefly in the system last year, Mo Wiley. Wiley had tore his UCL and had TJ surgery while in college. He went through the rehab and got drafted. Shortly after that he tore it again and rather than go through it all again he gave the knuckleball a shot. He struggled with it and wound up retiring.
DOES Mr. Arias get to aa this year ?
by terry m
He certainly could. It is tough though to project movement with the outfielders because the Pensacola outfield is loaded and has four guys all of which deserve playing time. The same goes for the outfield in Bakersfield. Unless someone from the Double-A outfield is ready to move up, it’s tough to push someone up from Bakersfield. It’s a good problem to have to be so loaded, but it does create a logjam situation where someone may not be promoted when they deserve to be. Arias is off to a quick start, and I love seeing it because the guy is as toolsy as anyone in the system, but his history of aggressiveness at the plate, I would like to see him spend at least 2.5 months there to let pitchers adjust to how they pitch to him and see how he reacts to it.
What do you think the Reds do with their two first round picks this year? I assume they would try and get a middle infielder?
by logan
The Reds, and just about every team in baseball, try to go with the best player available early in the draft. Baseball players don’t make it often enough or quick enough to really draft for needs, even in a situation where there are depth issues in the system. Given the history of the team when they have two or more early picks, one will likely be a pitcher. They aren’t drafting early enough to truly be targeting a certain player, so they are going to have to stick with the whole “best player available” approach.
Any comments on Morillo ‘ stuff before injury?
by vic
Honestly, no. My plan was to reach out after the game to try and grab a scouting report of sorts from the game, but after he left the game with the injury, I scrapped the idea and just plan on waiting until the extent of the injury comes out and seeing how things stand before asking about his stuff. If the injury winds up being serious, it could all be a moot point.
Your favorite minor league ballpark?
by john kenkel
I have been to a handful of stadiums. All three of the Reds stadiums on this side of the Mississippi are very nice (Louisville, Pensacola and Dayton), but it is hard to beat Pensacola with the view of the Gulf/Bay in the background.
How patient will the Reds be with Brodie Greene and Bryson Smith after their injuries ?
by william
I think they will be patient enough with them. Smith has done nothing but hit since being drafted and he can run and play some defense too, so I don’t think there is much of an issue to worry about with him. He is in a crowded outfield to be sure, but he has shown enough to warrant plenty of playing time. Greene hasn’t had the production that Smith has, so there may be a little less patience with him, but he also isn’t in as crowded of a position with several players potentially breathing down his neck to push for playing time at his level and the level directly behind him.
Chris Nelson just smacked a grand slam to give Louisville a 4-1 lead in the 7th.
Is Junior Arias as talented as Yorman?
by vic
On a pure tools basis, yes, he is. I think that baseball skill wise, Yorman is better at this time. Better plate approach, better hitter.
What is Daniel Corcino working on in Pensacola ?
by william
I honestly haven’t asked anyone about it, but I am sure he is working on everything. But from watching the results from his first start my guess would be that there is extra emphasis on his mechanics.
Any early reports on Winker’s defense?
by nick
Sorry for the delay, had to respond to an email real quick. At this point in the season I haven’t really sent many inquiries out there for scouting reports back on guys that I haven’t seen. It is so early that some of my contacts haven’t even seen guys yet. My Cal League scouting contact, and unfortunately I really only have one that I talk with consistently, doesn’t travel to Bakersfield often, so he hasn’t seen the Blaze yet.
Doug, talk to me about Jeremy Kivel. Jason Parks seems to love him. Thanks.
by richard fitch
Big time arm. He sits in the mid 90’s with his fastball and has touched 99. Just one of those things that you can’t teach. He didn’t play much baseball in high school, instead he focused on martial arts for the most part. He has had multiple ACL tears which also led to him not playing much baseball. I believe he only threw something like 6 innings for his high school career. He also throws a slider and a change up, with the slider being the better of the two pitches. He is a wild card who is very raw due to lack of experience, but his arm is very strong.
Somsen off to a good start. Any chance of a mid season move up?
by rookie
I was actually a bit surprised that he began in Dayton. I expected him to be in Bakersfield. With his age and stuff I think he could move up before midseason. I got to see him pitch on Saturday night and liked what I saw.
Any concern about Ervin’s slow start, or are you just chalking it up to it being his first full season, cold weather, small sample size, etc…?
by the duke
Small sample size. He has chased a few more pitches this season than I would have expected, but it’s still early and we saw last year that he can absolutely rake. He still stands out for his bat speed and power. I’m not worried. He has certainly had a rough start, but before long he is going to be hitting .300 or really close to it for the Dragons and people are going to start wondering how long until he is in Bakersfield. Which reminds me that I need to edit some video from the weekend games in Dayton. I’ve been holding off trying to find some free time. This evening with just two games may just be that time.
Who is the top reliever in the system and how soon can we get him up here?
by tim
Interesting question. Two guys that I see as probable future relievers are both starting right now, so they aren’t going to be rushed up to the bullpen to help out right now (Contreras and Lorenzen). Among the group of guys that are actually relieving right now, Chad Rogers is probably the closest guy. He is off to a rough start, but it’s still really early. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see David Holmberg make his way up as a reliever at some point either, though he too is starting currently.
What was your impression (offensively and defensively) of Carlton Deal after seeing him live?
by the duke
I am a fan. I picked him as my breakout player of the year (https://redsminorleagues.com/2014/04/01/predicting-the-cincinnati-reds-minor-league-breakout-players-for-2014/) because of the things that I had heard about him from the spring. I didn’t see him really tested range wise on defense in my three in person viewings (he played briefly in the Louisville/Cincinnati exhibition as well as the two games I saw in Dayton over the weekend). I liked what I saw at the plate from him. He probably needs to add a little bit more muscle, but that will come in time, but he is toolsy.
Do you think the Reds are now focusing on winning in the minors more so than in the past ?
by scott r
I do and they have said as much. They are still in development first, as they should be, but I think that is why we see a few more veterans in Louisville this year, to give the teams below a better chance to win while still being able to develop as well.
I understand and agree with BPA in the draft, but if the entire system is thin at a position, how long can you go before making it a priority? Both middle infield positions are starting to worry me and while there is potential there in the lower minors, there is also rather low floors as well.
by the duke
You can start addressing organizational need in the 4th or 5th round. Before then, drafting a lesser player simply because they play a position seems like a poor bet. You can always use better players to trade for needs. Right now the Reds have a loaded outfield in the minors and good starting pitching depth. They can make trades if they feel they really need to.
Who, currently in the minors, has the best chance at being on the Reds roster for Opening Day 2015?
by brad
I think it will be incredibly tough to keep Robert Stephenson in the minor leagues, even with the current five all coming back (sans injury). Tough to really line up anyone else, but a bullpen arm probably has a good chance because of how the bullpens tend to work out.
The pre-draft scouting report on Ben Lively was that while he had four pitches and decent control, his pitches/tools were average across the board. Now that he is in the system and has some PT as a pro, what do you disagree with about that scouting report?
by the duke
I think the reports were probably about right. The first time I saw him the control simply wasn’t good. But the next time it was really good. I like the slider more than the other offspeed pitches.
Any word on Mason Felt? Is he attempting a comeback?
by the duke
He was in Arizona for spring training according to the roster lists that I saw (there were several of them).
Do you think that the Reds will need to address the shortstop position via trade next offseason? And if so, should that come from trading Mike Leake plus outfield prospect depth?
by kyle
I think if Cozart doesn’t start hitting soon they may need to address it sooner than that. He hasn’t really hit as a big leaguer and we are several years in and he hasn’t really shown improvements over long periods of time. He is very good defensively, but he is among the worst hitting position player regulars in the game and the Reds offense simply can’t continue to have that. I would give him some rope to do something with, but if by the middle of June he isn’t doing much, you really need to address the market and make something happen. As for what do use to make that happen, that is a much tougher call.
What players deserve promotions today? Who would you promote if in charge?
by brad
I would have had Alejandro Chacin and Layne Somsen in Bakersfield to begin the year. I would have had Bryson Smith and Jamie Walczak in Louisville to begin the year. Those are the big ones for me.
Which (if any) Dayton, Bakersfield, and Pensacola outfielders do you expect to get midseason promotions?
by kyle
I think we could see plenty of outfielders move up. Ervin, Winker, Waldrop, Arias, Rodriguez, Smith and Lutz all seem to be guys who with a strong first half, or sooner, could be moved up.
Who are the top prospects in Arizona for EST or injured?
by brad
Any word from spring training on how the higher profile young international arms (Costante, Perez, Tejada) looked?
by the duke
Two similar questions, so I will try to hit on them both. First for Duke, Tejada, despite the baseball america report that the Reds agreed to terms with him, he is not signed. When I asked the Reds about him over the winter I was surprised to learn that and I just double checked the Reds media guide and he is not listed in there either. Not sure what happened, whether things fell through or whether they are still awaiting approval from MLB or what, but as things stand right now, he isn’t in the organization.
I haven’t had any reports from EST so far really, just checked in on a few guys doing rehab work down there. As for the top prospects that are down there, KJ Franklin, Jeremy Kivel, Jacob Constante, Gabriel Rosa, Jose Ortiz, Jackson Stephens (injured), Mark Armstrong.
Speaking of tough calls…which starting pitcher do you move to make room for Robert Stephenson next year? Considering potential, contract status, etc who do you think has the most trade value? And what do you look for in return position-wise?
by kyle
I think that Leake is the most likely to be the odd-man out. Simply put, he just doesn’t rate up with the stuff of the rest of the group. Toss in that his contract is up after 2015 and it adds to it. If the Reds are going to move any of the starters, no matter who it is, I imagine they will be looking for a left fielder or a shortstop. I think they feel comfortable everywhere else for the next few years.
Who do you think is more likely to continue their blazing hot start: Junior Arias or Kyle Waldrop?
by the duke
Simply judging by past history, Waldrop. As I said earlier, I haven’t talked with anyone that has seen them play this year, so I could be completely wrong. I just think that Waldrop has shown better plate discipline in the past, and that in the long run, it will help him maintain more success unless Arias has taken big steps forward with his plate discipline.
Could you see a mid season daisy chain of catcher promotions: Yovan Gonzalez to Pensacola, Joe Hudson to Bakersfield, and Jose Ortiz to Dayton?
by the duke
It is certainly possible. I was honestly a bit surprised when the rosters came out that Berset and Hudson weren’t both a level higher with Ortiz in Dayton. I can understand why it worked out that way, but it surprised me. As always, it all just depends on how everyone is playing, and unfortunately, injuries.
What goes on in EST? Are they playing games against other teams in Arizona? How much difference is there between EST and Dayton?
by brad
They are playing games against other teams in Arizona. Essentially it is a season that just doesn’t count. Guys are out there getting their work in, playing some games and hoping to impress and get the call up to Dayton. The difference from Dayton is obviously a lot less travel involved since all of the teams are right there in Arizona. Crowds existing is a big difference, since no one really shows up to watch the guys in Arizona except for some scouts or maybe autograph seekers and photographers.
Well, that is it for today guys. Thanks for stopping by, this went pretty well and I am sure, as long as this option remains free, that it is something that I will do in the future as well.