Robert Stephenson was selected by the Cincinnati Reds with the 27th overall pick in the 2011 draft. Since then he’s been ranked among the organizations top prospects, being the top prospect since the 2012 season ended.
It was the 2013 season that really saw Stephenson jump forward in the national rankings though. The right hander was 20-years-old and was rather dominant during the season, splitting 114.1 innings between Dayton, Bakersfeld and Pensacola where he posted a 2.99 ERA with 35 walks and 136 strikeouts.
Since that season though, things have slowed down for the right hander. He’s now entering his age 23 season and is coming off of his second straight season where he’s flashed all of the potential in the world, but had problems with the strikezone and consistency at times as he’s pitched at the higher levels of the minor leagues.
The timeline is strikingly similar to that of Cincinnati Reds pitcher Homer Bailey. The La Grange, Texas native was selected 7th overall in the 2004 draft and was immediately considered one of the top prospects in baseball, ranking in the Top 50 prospects in baseball the year in which he was drafted. He, like Stephenson, had a solid but unspectacular season as a 19-year-old. And much like Stephenson it was his age 20 season that was really his breakout season.
Bailey split the year between Sarasota and Chattanooga where he posted a 2.47 ERA in 138.2 innings with 50 walks and 156 strikeouts. The next season was a mixed bag. He would pitch in Louisville where he had a 3.07 ERA, but he struggled with his control and his strikeout rate dropped off significantly. He would reach the Majors and was in over his head. In his age 22 season he returned to Triple-A where his walk rate improved some, but was still higher than you’d like to see and his strikeout rate remained lower than expected. Another trip to the big leagues saw him struggle mightily.
That’s where the minor league comparison ends, from a statistical standpoint that is. Both players broke out at age 20 and struggled in the upper minors, particularly with their control. Stephenson carried a better strikeout rate with him at the Double-A and Triple-A levels, though he was a year older in reaching both levels for the first time than Bailey was.
Homer Bailey’s struggles with control eventually subsided, though it wouldn’t until he was 24-years-old and splitting time between Louisville and Cincinnati.
Statistical comparison aside, the two players have also followed a similar path in their development. Homer Bailey came up with a fastball, curveball and a change up, but he would eventually scrap his curveball in favor of a slider and the slider made all of the difference in the world. The pitch was one of the better sliders in baseball when he was healthy. He would also, after several years in the Major Leagues drop his change up in favor of a splitter, which has also turned into a very strong pitch for him.
Robert Stephenson was drafted with a fastball, curveball and splitter. The Reds however had him drop the splitter and focus on a more traditional change up, as the splitter has been known to cause arm issues with overuse. The team took a cautious approach in his development with the pitch and wanted to keep his arm healthy.
After a few years of developing the change up, though it did make some progress, the pitch was eventually scrapped in favor of a splitter. The pitch, much like the slider for Bailey, made a huge difference almost immediately. His new pitch has been labeled as a plus pitch, which gives him three of them at this point in time. Stephenson, much like Bailey, would go through stretches where his control was on point, but would also struggle at times.
Both players saw a breakout at age 20 and both struggled at the upper levels with their control. They both also reworked their pitch arsenal as they went through struggles with another one. The two represent the best pitching prospects that the organization has had in a long time (with all due respect to Johnny Cueto, who turned into a true #1 – he was never ranked quite as high as either Bailey or Stephenson have been). Their development path, breakouts and struggles have all followed a similar timeline. We don’t know what the future holds for Robert Stephenson, but to this point in time he and Homer Bailey have a whole lot in common in their development as players.