July 2nd has officially arrived and Major League Baseball teams can begin signing international players. The Cincinnati Reds have reportedly kicked things off in the first hour by agreeing to sign two players that we know of (and there are absolutely more – they just aren’t players of any sort of note right now). The first is one that we’ve known all about since January: Cuban shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez.
First reported by Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com, the Reds have agreed to pay him $7M. That’s by far the highest signing bonus of anyone so far today, and likely to be the highest among all players signed this signing period that are also subject to the international signing bonus pool money restrictions.
Each team is given a specific amount of money that they are allowed to spend, based on how good your record was the previous year. The Reds, being the 2nd worst team in baseball last year have the second highest pool of money to spend without penalty with $5,163,400. Teams that go over their pool allotment face penalties, both monetarily and by giving up the ability to sign future players. Cincinnati has already gone well beyond their pool allotment with one signing.
On the surface, that seems like a good thing. Many teams throw caution to the wind and just spend whatever they like and deal with the penalties in the name of amassing talent. This season there are 10 teams facing restrictions on signing players for more than $300,000 because they spent too much money in past seasons. Teams simply have shown zero fear with the penalties – the Dodgers last year spent $96,000,000 in signing bonuses and penalties on the international market despite the fact that they had roughly $2,000,000 in pool money they were allowed to spend. The Yankees signed 11 of the Top 30 prospects on the market two years ago, spending over $30,000,000 in the process. The system is broken, but plenty of teams have stepped up to take advantage of it.
The Reds haven’t. In the last seven years on the international market the organization has signed one player to a deal worth $1,000,000 or more. In 2015 they signed outfielder Cristian Olivo for $1,000,000. That’s it. In seven years. Numerous teams have already signed multiple players in the first 30 minutes of this signing period to deals worth more than that. The Reds have been one of the few teams that have played by the rules, and it shows in the lack of true prospects they’ve got from Latin American countries.
The organization has stated, publicly, that they have more money than anyone to spend this year on the international market and the draft combined, and that’s a big part of their rebuild. And it’s true, they have more pool money between the two than anyone else. In the draft, they, like everyone else spends nearly every penny that they are allowed to. Where this falls on deaf ears of the educated is the international portion where it seems more than half of the teams in baseball simply open up the check books and spend and spend and spend to add talent to the organization with care for what the penalties are.
The Reds can sit here today and say that they spent more than they were allowed to, signing the player with the highest signing bonus in the entire class. The general public will buy into this as the team doing the right thing. And you know what, maybe it is. The market over the last ten years is full of guys who were top signings who never amounted to anything. It’s the riskiest of all markets because almost every player being signed is a 16 or 17-year-old, unrefined player who is being signed purely on athleticism rather than on the field skills. They are almost all six plus years away from the big leagues and a lot of them will never make it to the United States, much less to Double-A.
The biggest concern with the Reds approach is that they seem to be placing all of their eggs in one basket in a year where they had the money to make a much bigger splash. For the money that they are giving Alfredo Rodriguez they could have signed 3-4 Top 20 prospects, assuming they were able to get to the player quick enough. The international market isn’t simply about offering a player the most money. Deals are often reached a year in advance with players and you’ve also got to generally have relationships with the buscones (scouts/trainers) as well. Cincinnati is likely spending 90%+ of their money on one player, with Baseball America’s Ben Badler noting that they aren’t really expected to sign anyone else but a few low six-figure guys (and probably another 20 guys below the six-figure mark). While you can certainly find players in this range, the best guys tend to come from the guys that get paid big bonuses and that’s an area the Reds have generally avoided.
So, what are others saying about Alfredo Rodriguez? Fangraphs/ESPN writer Eric Longenhagen ranks him as the 12th best prospect on the market this year and has this to say:
He might ride his glove to an everyday job — and indeed there are worse all-around players than what Rodriguez projects to be trotting out to shortstop everyday — but he profiles better as a utility man. He is likely to be the first player from this class to debut in the majors.
MLB Pipeline ranks Rodriguez as the #6 prospect in the class. Here is what they have to say about him:
Rodriguez won a gold glove in Cuba and made a name for himself with stellar defense. He’s also a plus runner and should improve as a base stealer with professional instruction on a daily basis. Scouts like his makeup and his level of confidence. His arm is considered average.
On offense, Rodriguez lacks power, but his light bat should improve as he develops.
Utility man. Light bat. Great defender. Those are the same things that show up in every scouting report you can find on him. That’s the report on the guy the Reds just paid $7M to. Here’s the scouting report on the top prospect in the class, who signed for $4M:
Maitan has been called the best international prospect since Miguel Sano and his talents have been compared to a young Miguel Cabrera and Chipper Jones.
Some scouts have designated him as a once-in-a-generation prospect. Every scout knows he is special.
The Venezuelan teen is a switch-hitter who has shown power from both sides of the plate. He has also displayed hitting mechanics and an approach at the plate that are beyond his years. Athletic and agile, Maitan is a sound defensive player and has displayed good range in both directions. He has one of the best arms in the class and a high baseball IQ. Scouts also like his frame.
The difference in potential is incredible. Of course, the safeness between the two players is also quite large. Alfredo Rodriguez is already 22-years-old, so his skills are much more developed, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. He’s big league ready today with the glove. That counts for something. He’s very likely to be a big leaguer because of that. Everything hinges on how his bat develops.
When he was in Cuba, as a 20-year-old, he didn’t hit. At all. He hit .265/.301/.284 – yes, he slugged .284. That’s about as ugly as it gets. He’s two years older now than he was then, and it’s absolutely worth noting that since then reports are that he’s gotten bigger, added muscle and has improved his swing – all while showing progress at the plate. He hasn’t played in any games since then, so this is all based off of how he’s looked in workouts, but there’s at least something to pin your hopes on that the Reds know more about Rodriguez than the general consensus does.
The Reds are paying a premium for Rodriguez because he’s older, and closer to a final product. The fact that he’s Cuban, and my theory is that teams are also paying a premium for Cuban players for no other reason than they are Cuban is one I’m going to hold onto until prices start to fall in line more with the rest of the international guys with incredibly similar scouting reports. I feel very confident that Rodriguez is going to wind up being a better player than some of the other million-dollar signings from today wind up being. With that said, I highly question the plan of going all-in on one player who has the upside of a great glove and below-average hitter.
The other player of note that the Reds have reportedly agreed to a deal with is shortstop Jayson Rijo. This was originally reported by Baseball America. He, like Rodriguez, is noted as a defensive first player and is a “low six-figure” signing.
We can get back to what spending so much money means for the Reds. As things stand right now the team will be facing penalties for the 2017 signing period. The Reds will also have to pay a penalty to Major League Baseball for going over their bonus allotment, meaning ths signing will actually cost the team more than $7M. How much, we don’t know yet, because it all depends on how much they spend on everyone else as well.
All of that comes with a few caveats. The first, of course, is that the Reds can acquire additional bonus pool money via trades. It is certainly possible to acquire enough that they won’t have to pay any penalties as long as every other signing they make is for very small dollars. With so many teams ineligible from making big signings, there could be deals to be made for the Reds to avoid this. The other big elephant in the room, and it’s why we’ve seen teams just obliterate their signing pools last year and early this year, is that the collective bargaining agreement is up after 2016. Everyone expects the rules to change before next season, with many believing that the slates will be wiped clean and the restrictions on signing players won’t carry over. That just leaves teams believing they will have to just pay the cash penalties for this season.
If the Reds make any other noteworthy signings today, this post will be updated.