Ismael Guillon, originally signed as a 16-year-old left handed pitcher by the Cincinnati Reds in 2008, has had a strong season with the Daytona Tortugas in 2016 after missing all of the 2015 season.
When 2015 began, things were looking quite different for Guillon than they were just a few months later. The left hander was on the 40-man roster and was heading out to spring training. Then, in February the team signed Burke Badenhop and needed a spot on the roster. That spot came at the expense of Guillon and he was designated for assignment. He would clear waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Louisville.
Things didn’t get much better from there. In spring training he would tear his latissimus muscle on his left side. The injury would ultimately keep him out for the entire season.
At 24-years-old, he’s certainly a bit old for the Florida State League, so when we look at his numbers, we can say that he’s been dominant, but he probably should be given his age. Let’s take a look at his stat line:
79.1 innings, 42 hits, 10 home runs, 34 walks and 96 strikeouts.
He’s been outstanding when it comes to suppressing hits and missing bats. His home run rate is very high, especially considering the league kills power and that he’s given up so few hits overall. His walk rate is also a bit higher than you’d like to see. Overall, the entire package has been one of dominance as Ismael Guillon has alternated roles between the bullpen and rotation as a fill-in starter when needed.
The Reds are coming up on an offseason where the 40-man roster is likely to see a ton of moving parts. Including players on the 60-day disabled list, the organization has 43 players on their 40-man. When the season ends they will need to start making decisions to get that number down to 40. A few weeks after that the team will need to open up more roster spots to protect players from the Rule 5 draft, which could be anywhere from five to eight more players that will need spots. One of those players could be Ismael Guillon.
Would a team take a chance on a left handed reliever with no experience above Advanced-A ball? History tells us that they would, assuming that player shows that they could be useful. Guillon’s numbers certainly suggest he’s got the talent. The Reds thought enough about his left arm that they once had it on the 40-man roster despite him having never pitched above Low-A. But, what’s his arm looking like these days?
While in Daytona I got a good look at Ismael Guillon on what was probably one of the best days he’s had all season. He allowed two hits over 5.0 shutout innings with just one walk and he struck out 10 batters. The left hander needed just 60 pitches in the game and he racked up 16 swinging strikes along the way. He followed that game up with another 5.0 innings and 10 strikeouts, this time with 18 swinging strikes out of 71 pitches thrown. The only baserunner came on a solo home run.
Ismael Guillon Scouting Report
Before jumping into where Guillon is today, let’s take a look back at where he used to be. In the 2011 Reds Prospect Guide I wrote this:
He works in the 88-92 MPH range, though he will touch 93-94. He has an above-average change up that could develop into a plus pitch and also he also has a curveball that he throws on a limited basis.
The next season he moved up the ladder to Billings and he really struggled to throw strikes. The stuff remained mostly the same, but his walk rate nearly doubled.
He returned to Billings the next year and was much better, earning a promotion later in the year to Dayton where he continued to have success in four starts. Here’s what I wrote about him after that season:
Guillon attacks hitters with a fastball in the 89-92 MPH range, reaching as high as 96 MPH. He goes to his curveball, a big looping breaking ball in the 68-72 MPH range that can put hitters away, but is a pitch that scouts think will need improvement to get hitters out at higher levels. His third pitch is a plus change up which will be his bread-and-butter pitch at the next level.
The next year, 2013, we saw the control problems emerge once again. Returning to Dayton saw the left hander walk 95 batters in 121.1 innings pitched. While he racked up the strikeouts, 134 of them, the amount of walks he was giving out was simply too much. His stuff also took a step backwards in some respects that season. Here’s what was in the 2014 Reds Prospect Guide:
Guillon’s fastball worked anywhere from 86-93 MPH during the season. His best offering is a plus change up, but he still uses it less often than his breaking ball. The curveball, his third best offering, did improve to be an average pitch. Already on the 40-man roster and with an option burned, the Reds may be forced to push him harder than they may like given his struggles.
The next season, 2014, he returned to Dayton to begin the year and pitched well. His walk rate was down and it earned him a promotion to Bakersfield after 13 games. The California League didn’t treat him well as he posted a 6.79 ERA in 12 games and 58.1 innings. His walk rate was still higher than you’d like, but was an improvement from the previous season – it was his strikeout rate that plummeted in Bakersfield. After the season I wrote this in the 2015 Reds Prospect Guide:
Like past seasons, Guillon’s velocity would vary wildly from start-to-start. On some days he would sit 92-93 MPH and touch 95, and on other days he would sit in the upper 80’s. The change up is his best pitch, a plus offering at 77-80 MPH with fading action. The curveball has improved over the last few years and is now more than a get-me-over pitch, but it’s still his third pitch and average at best. He will fall in love with is curveball at times and rely on it too much, and that gets him in trouble.
That was the last time he pitched before this season. His history tells us that he’s been wildly inconsistent. The stuff has always been there, though, like his ability to throw strikes, it’s been an inconsistent thing.
Let’s fastforward to July 28th in Daytona this year. It was the first time that I had seen Guillon in person since the first half of 2014. Going in, the numbers were dominant, but I wasn’t entirely sure what to expect either. What I saw was very impressive.
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As noted, Guillon was absolutely dominant on the day in which I saw him. He racked up 10 strikeouts in 5.0 innings and needed a total of 61 pitches to do so. It was really fun to watch as he simply overmatched hitters.
His fastball was sitting 92-94 MPH and he touched higher a few times. He threw it in the zone and did so often. While he wasn’t exactly commanding the ball, he was controlling it on this day quite well.
The biggest thing that jumped out to me was how many times he went to his change up. The Ismael Guillon that I had seen in the past would only throw a handful a game, often going to his breaking ball far more frequently despite the fact that, at least from a scouting perspective, it wasn’t anywhere near as good. This is something you see with younger pitchers at times though, as the breaking ball “looks” better because you can see what it’s doing more easily than the change up, even if it’s not as effective.
In this start, over the 5.0 innings he threw, I only saw a few breaking balls. He was almost exclusively fastball and change up. The change up is still an outstanding pitch that works in the 78-81 MPH range and shows outstanding late fade to it.
The curveball is still mostly an average pitch, though I only saw a few of them on the day. In the bullpen, where his future lies (and he’s already been moved back to the bullpen by the organization – he’s simply been filling in the rotation), it’s probably not an offering we will see much of.
He’s still a big time fly ball pitcher, and that’s probably always going to mean he’s going to give eup a high rate of home runs. If he’s able to rack up the strikeouts and control the amount of walks he gives up, the home run rate won’t be as big of an issue. With his past control issues, it’s always going to be a question as to whether or not he can take that next step, but the guy that I saw on this day had the looks of a high leverage future reliever. Finding that consistency will be the key, but all of the parts are there for that role to be in the future.
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