When the season began for Casey Mize he was a Top 10 prospect in the country, but as the season has progressed he’s become the consensus top prospect in the country.

Background Information

  • Position: Right Handed Starting Pitcher
  • Height: 6′ 3″
  • Weight: 220 lbs
  • Class: Junior
  • Previously drafted: Not drafted

College career

During his freshman season at Auburn, Casey Mize split his time starting and relieving. He would throw 69.0 innings and post a 3.52 ERA. He showed off good control, walking just 18 batters, and he racked up 59 strikeouts along the way.

That was a strong debut to college baseball, but he took things to an entirely different level in 2017 as a sophomore. He made 13 appearances, including 2 starts, and threw 83.2 innings. In that span he posted a 2.04 ERA and walked a grand total of nine batters. He also struck out 109 opposing hitters. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was the best in the country at 12.11.

The 2018 season has been more of the same for Casey Mize in terms of statistics. His ERA is up to 2.73 on the year in 13 starts. Over his 89.0 innings pitched he had walked eight batters and he has struck out 124 hitters.

Career Stats

Let’s note that these are the stats are through May 13, 2018.

2016 3.52 69.0 69 9 18 59 1.26
2017 2.04 83.2 66 4 9 109 0.90
2018 2.73 89.0 58 9 8 124 0.74

Scouting Report

Casey Mize is above-average in all aspects of pitching. His control is above-average to plus. He also throws four or five pitches depending on how you want to classify his slider, since he throws two versions of it. The fastball works in the 93-95 MPH range and will top out at 97 on his best days. His best pitch is probably his splitter, which consistently grades out as a plus pitch and sometimes a plus-plus offering. The slider is an above-average offering when he throws the harder version of the pitch. Mize will also offer a slower version of the pitch that isn’t quite on par with his other offerings. He also added a cutter in 2018 that is already grading out as a plus offering.

What’s to like with Casey Mize

He’s got the best repertoire in the entire draft with four plus pitches to work with. He throws tons of strikes. And he’s also got outstanding numbers in a premiere conference in college baseball. Casey Mize may be the most ready starting pitcher out of the draft in quite a while.

What’s to be concerned  about with Casey Mize?

There’s not a whole lot, but if there is something, it’s his injury history. Casey Mize has not had any arm surgeries, and he’s been healthy all season in 2018. But in 2017 he dealt with arm issues twice. He was shut down during the regular season, and then again with Team USA in the summer with a flexor strain. He has seemingly recovered from that just fine given what he’s done in 2018, but if there’s anything on his resume to raise even the smallest of red flags, that’s it.

Does Casey Mize fit for the Reds?

Casey Mize is the best player in the draft, so of course he fits in with the Reds. Not that you ever draft for need, but he certainly fits a need in that he’s got a big upside as a starting pitcher. The odds aren’t good that he’s actually there for the taking at the #5 spot in the draft. If he is, then something has gone wrong in the three weeks prior to the draft because as I type this, he’s clearly the best player in the draft.


6 Responses

  1. Matthew O'Neal

    Stating the obvious here, but 8 BBs in 89 innings is incredible.

  2. The Duke

    In 241.2 IP as a collegian, he has 37 BB and 292 K. That’s just a mind blowing mix of control, command, and plus stuff. Mize was the guy I targeted pre-season, and he unfortunately I was all too right about how his year would go, and unless he gets seriously injured in the next 3 weeks, he won’t be there at 5. He may break Hunter Greene’s new draft rules bonus record.

  3. AirborneJayJay

    I love Casey Mize. My hopes that he would have a couple of hiccups before the draft and fall to #5 Might come to fruition. Mize had a bad game Friday night and took another loss. He gave up 6 runs. He also pitched the second game in a weekend series instead of the first game. It may have been that Auburn wanted to keep him on a Friday schedule as they had Thur-Sat series with Ole Miss. But he didn’t pitch against Miss. 1st round projected pitcher Rollison.
    UF’s Singer didn’t do much better giving up 5 runs.
    UF’s Jonathon India had a decent week, but not great.

  4. weigarp

    Is there any concern that he has started so little in his college career? Only this year has he started full time. I especially ask this with regard to the arm problems he experienced the previous year.

    • Doug Gray

      He started all of his sophomore year, too, outside of one relief appearance.

      • RobL

        I think you forgot the 1 then. You got him down for 2 starts.