Hunter Greene keeps on rolling for the Dayton Dragons Doug Gray June 10, 2018 35 Comments For anyone who seemed to be worried after a short stretch earlier this season where Hunter Greene struggled, it’s time to take a deep breath and relax a little bit. The 18-year-old right handed pitcher put together another quality outing Saturday night. He would eventually be charged with the loss in the game, but it was hardly because of what happened on the mound. The Dragons were shut out on the night. Hunter Greene allowed one run over the span of 5.0 innings. He allowed four hits and walked two batters in the game. Greene also struck out six batters, throwing 60 strikes out of 84 pitches. It was just more of the same for the righty, who has pitched very well over his last six outings. In that span he’s posted a 2.70 ERA across 26.2 innings with 22 hits allowed, just three home runs, seven walks, and he’s struck out 32. https://redsminorleagues.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Hunter-Greene-5Ks.mp4 The fastball was probably working at the highest velocity he’s had all year. Hunter Greene hit 101 MPH 10 times during the game. He was at 100 a handful more. Despite having that at his disposal, though, the slider was a pitch that he went to frequently. For a few games in a row, Greene went heavy fastball the first time through the lineup. And it worked well for him. This time out the breaking ball came out earlier in the game and he mixed it well, leaving hitters guessing, and most of the time, completely fooled. Nick Senzel has a big night in The Electric City The Louisville Bats had a new leadoff hitter on Saturday night. Nick Senzel was taking over the spot, at least for one night. And boy did it pay off immediately. The Cincinnati Reds top prospect racked up four hits, including a double (video below). He also stole a base, drove in a run, and he scored two runs. After going 0-7 in his first two games back from his bout with vertigo, he’s gone out and hit .355 in the nine games since, and walked as many times, seven, as he’s struck out. https://redsminorleagues.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Nick-Senzel-Double.mp4 Gabby Guerrero unloads a long home run Nick Senzel wasn’t the only guy going off in The Electric City on Saturday night. Gabby Guerrero also racked up four hits on the night. One of his hits was an absolute bomb of a home run. Watch where this thing goes. https://redsminorleagues.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Gabby-Guerrero-homer.mp4 If you’ve been around the site enough you know that I try to keep track of the distances on home runs throughout the system. Some times I am able to get the Trackman data. Other times I have to use video and google maps measurement tool. For tonight (it’s currently 1:21am as I type this), we are using the google maps measuring tool for the distance on this one. The initial estimate is 424 feet. Did not miss any bit of that baseball. 35 Responses DHud June 10, 2018 Only 5 innings? Lost?? Bust. Trade him immediately. *sarcasm *i will never get over how some people on here turned on him so prematurely Jonathan Linn June 10, 2018 I agree. It’s a shame how so many people wrote him off so soon. The kid is going to be good. The Rage June 10, 2018 He is 18 years old…. Jim June 10, 2018 Dhud, I don’t think people really think that he will be a bust, but it’s our lack in faith in the Reds to develop him. Personally I’d loan him to the Yanks or Cards to develop him. Jonathan Linn June 10, 2018 It’s not like the yanks have had a lot of success before this last round of guys. I’m talking over the last 20 years. Cards on the other hand – they’re one of the best at developing players Wes June 10, 2018 So what did the reds do wrong w reed or Stephenson where u can actually say that with any confidence ? Reds actually lead majors w home grown pitchers making 15 mil + Imo it’s 95%+ on player and less than 5% on organization. Maybe 10% when it comes to cards. Bubba Woo June 10, 2018 Reed was in AAA already when the Reds got him. That’s not bad development, that’s bad evaluation. But there’s been plenty of bad development: 1. Stephenson – Pushed thru the system despite never dominating at any level. Never has developed a repeatable delivery in 7 yrs in the system. 2. Lorenzen – Drafted and converted into a starter despite not being a starter in college. Every time they have tried to start him in the last four years he gets hurt. 3. Travieso – Drafted him to start despite the fact that he was basically a reliever IN HS! Been hurt last two years. 4. Cingrani-drafted and converted to a starter (See a pattern?) In over seven years in the system, never developed even an avg. 2nd and 3rd pitch to go with a good fastball. Doug Gray June 10, 2018 No he was not. Reed was in Double-A. And Robert Stephenson absolutely dominated a few levels. In 2013 Robert Stephenson posted a 2.67 ERA between Dayton and Bakersfield in 97.2 innings with 22 walks and 118 strikeouts. He had a hiccup in Pensacola for the next year-ish. In 2015, in his final 43.1 innings for Pensacola, he posted an ERA of 1.87 with 15 walks, 21 hits, and 53 strikeouts. He hasn’t dominated for a stretch in Triple-A. But to say he’s never dominated any level is flat out misinformed and incorrect. And Tony Cingrani started as a freshman. He started as a sophomore. He started as a junior. He relieved as a senior. He was NOT converted to a starter. Stock June 10, 2018 Agreed Bubba. The Reds made a lot of dumb picks drafting players who were RP in college and thinking they would be SP in the majors. Howard – bust, Cingrani – never developed into a SP and Lorenzen – never developed into a SP. I would not place Travieso in this group because his was just a handling issue. Of course you have to wonder if people were trying to hide something with him prior to the draft. I am confused why the Reds used 3 high draft picks on players who were not good enough to start in college. This year they waited until the 14th round to draft Byrne. Much more reasonable. Stock June 10, 2018 Tony Cingrani was absolutely converted to a Starter by the Reds. He was a SP in Junior College. Then he went to Rice University where they tried him as a SP. To say it went poorly is a compliment. He had a 8.59 ERA in 6 starts. He averaged 3.2 innings per start and his K/BB ratio was 0.812. That’s right he walked more than he struck out. These stats occurred while playing in Conference USA. Not exactly the same quality of players as the SEC. Rice realized he was not a SP so they converted him to a RP. He absolutely stunk as a SP and the Reds drafted him early anyway. Now he was a RP as a senior so when the Reds drafted him they converted him from a RP to a SP. You can argue they reconverted him but to say he was not converted to a SP is wrong. In short Rice University knew he was not a SP. Somehow the Reds missed the message. Doug Gray June 11, 2018 Converted to me implies something they’ve never really done. He’d done it. A lot. Just wasn’t the last thing he’d done before the draft. And the 3rd round is in no way, shape, or form, early. Sidenote: Tony Cingrani, still EASILY the most valuable 3rd round pick taken in 2011. https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2011&draft_round=3&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round Stock June 11, 2018 By that definition no pitcher ever converts into a SP. Because every ML pitcher (starter and reliever) was a SP at some point in his career. Cingrani being the best pick in the 3rd round doesn’t mean it was a good pick. It just means the other picks didn’t turn out any better. But picking college RP in the first couple of rounds is a strategy I am against. The Reds need to take high ceiling guys in the draft. Player’s who are not good enough to start in college have a low ceiling imo Doug Gray June 11, 2018 Guys that spend more time starting in college, than relieving, like Tony Cingrani, aren’t converted relievers to starters. I don’t care to keep having this argument, either. DHud June 10, 2018 There were verbatim claims of “bust” after fewer than 20 profession innings for an 18 yr old kid That kind of pessimism and short sightedness is beyond ridiculous. You want you come back in 10 yrs when he’s flames out of the league? Sure, you can call him a bust at that point based on those results But you do not get to make that claim after fewer 20 professional innings Simon Cowell June 10, 2018 Nice to see our 2 top minor league stars deliver. Hopefully Trammel is going to recover and make that our top 3 delivering DanD June 10, 2018 Looks like Dilson Herrera is finally healthy. What happens when you have 3 second basemen who should be starting with Gennett, Senzel and Herrera. Stock June 10, 2018 That is easy. You play Gennett. He is the best 2B in the NL. Why even think about anyone else. Senzel played 3B last night. Maybe this is a sign the Reds are negotiating with Gennett. Maybe it is nothing. As things stand right now no one is playing 2B in Cincinnati but Gennett unless he is injured or traded. Doug Gray June 10, 2018 Even if the Reds are negotiating with Gennett, playing Senzel at third base doesn’t matter much because Gennett isn’t getting extended longer than Suarez is currently extended. The Reds have a few options. Trade Senzel – seems unlikely. Trade Gennett – 50/50. Hold onto Gennett through his deal, don’t extend him, let him walk – seems unlikely. Extend Gennett, move him to outfield because he’s a bad infielder – not outrageous odds against this one. Extend Gennett, keep him at second, move Senzel to the outfield – similar to the last one, but probably weakens your defense more than the previous one. Norwood Nate June 10, 2018 As most who come here regularly know, I have been a big proponent of trading Gennett while his value is still at it’s peak. I think it’s been a huge misstep of the rebuild that the Reds have held onto players until their value declined and then traded them. And while I think Gennett is a good player, and what he’s accomplished in two years with the Reds is nothing short of outstanding, I still believe that (all of baseball) history shows us this level of production won’t continue too much longer. Yet, someone proposed a 4 year $40m extension the other day and I admit that at those terms I would have to consider an extension, especially if one of those years bought out the last ARB year. That would mean Gennett would be here through his age 32 season, and I believe he’d still be a productive player at that point. The money an years would be right. But then I thought about the three big holes we have with the current construction of the Reds. The holes the rebuild has yet to address and we are running out of trade chips to use. We desperately need SP, CF, and SS help. Of the three positions, I am most confident that the Reds have someone in their system that can fill CF. Trammell, Siri, Freidl, and Fairchild give the Reds good options to rely on down the road that could realistically be ready by mid 2020 (maybe not Fairchild). I believe that most here hope Iglesias will be used to find either a future rotation piece or a future SS. To me, that still leaves the Reds a little short. I only see Castillo and Mahle for sure rotation pieces moving forward. Maybe the Reds will finally dip their toe into FA to nab a front line starter, but I don’t believe we should put all our eggs in that basket. It still leaves a good portion of the rotation to fill out, even if Iglesias nets us a top pitching prospect. For that reason, if Gennett’s value is enough to nab us a top 100 prospect in baseball at a position where we are very thin, I still believe it’s in the Reds best interest to trade him. If we sign him to an extension and he moves to LF, that essentially means we’ve given up on Winker. I believe Winker will play a good enough LF to keep his bat and on-base skills in the line up (I also believe he’ll end up having average power numbers). I don’t think that’s the case if he has to play RF. Also it would only add to the good options we have to play corner OF, namely Schebler, Winker, Senzel/India, and any of the CF outfield prospects that end up not playing CF. For these reasons, I think Gennett’s best value to future Reds teams is as a trade chip that helps us in another area, as the areas he can play we are well stocked in. But who knows, if he’s a favorite of Big Bob then he’ll probably get a big extension that will rival the negative value of Phillip’s contract at the end. jbonireland June 10, 2018 Gennett can hit no doubt about it, however to say he is the best second basemen in the league is a stretch, HIs defense isn’t good. I agree with Doug we could try him in the outfield, but 3 years would be the limit for me with maybe a club option for the fourth. I wouldn’t want to block any of the young outfielders in the minors should they develop; Trammel, Siri ?, Fairchild, Freidl, and now Siani and I’m sure there are others. Don’t forget you will have to find something to do with India as he won’t be playing 3B. The perfect position for Scooter would best be DH in the American League but I doubt that would even be discussed as young as he is. Stock June 10, 2018 Gennett’s defense is much better than this site gives him credit for. I agreee he had a tough april offensively and defensively. But since then he has been above average defensively and spectacular offensively. Not only is Gennett the best 2B in the NL but he is by a wide margin. His WAR is 40% greater than Hernandez who is 2nd in the NL. The underlying numbers (25% LD rate, 4% IFFB rate, 17% HR/FB ratio, 16% Soft Hit and 41% hard hit ratio) indicate that the results are real. Maybe his BA is inflated a bit but HR are real, 300 BA is realistic. I could see trading him to the Dodgers. But you need a top SP prospect along with Verdugo. I could see signing Gennett for 4-6 years and moving Suarez to SS in the offseason and bringing up Senzel to play 3B in mid-April 2019. That means gaining a year with Senzel. An infield of Votto/Gennett/Senzel/Suarez would hit a ton but be weak defensively everywhere but 3B. I could also see Senzel moving to LF/RF. Cguy June 10, 2018 As for Scooter, Dodgers got bad news about Justin Turner. His wrist may not be right this whole season. Muncy & the other guy @ 2nd aren’t cutting it either. Their offense could use Scooter. Dodgers have a couple catching prospects, several good outfield prospects, & a couple good arms. There’s a win/win deal there if Reds can get it done. Hererra should be promoted & play @ 2nd /ss regularly. The Reds need to show off his bat at the ML level – whether he’s in their future plans or not. Senzel is not going to make the Reds a winning team this year. I give him 6-7 more weeks @ Louisville & let him play some cf. Krozley June 10, 2018 I wish the Reds players were not cutting it like Max Muncy. The guy is a raking at a 1.129 OPS in the last 28 days and .979 for the year. Cguy June 10, 2018 Yeah, I meant Logan Forsythe @2nd base, not Muncy (who’s playing 3rd). DHud June 10, 2018 A) you forget what the back of their baseball card says and find some way to get all of them into the lineup, a la Chicago and playing people all over the diamond B) you trade them for organization need Too much talent is never a problem RedsinWashSt June 10, 2018 Too much talent at one position is a problem if you have no talent at other positions. Need to trade a 2nd basement to get to fill in the other positions. Scooter makes more sense then anywhere else. Need more SP. Joe June 10, 2018 I kno hunter had a tough go at th start of his career but we tend to forget this guy is a legit generational talent and those are hard to come by and I’m pumped up our reds hav one and hopefully wen he gets to th bigs it’ll b franchise altering Schottzie June 10, 2018 Has he used a change up yet? Jasonp June 10, 2018 Looked at the standing today. Saw the Mariners are tied for first in their division with 40 wins. Might be a team that will ask about Gennett. Cano is still suspended but he will also be ineligible for the playoffs because of his PED suspension. So Gennett could give them a boost now and be a hitter for them in the playoffs if they can keep doing well. Rob June 10, 2018 With how bad major league team is it would be foolish not to listen to or market Iglesias. Should be able to get a nice return to accelerate the rebuild. Hughes or Garrett could easily close games. MikeinSoCal June 11, 2018 Gennett has been our best hitter but he is not our future 2b. I don’t think the Reds want to pay him when they have multiple options that don’t cost as much. Trading him makes the most sense but the problem is getting a good return. Teams are not going to give a high prospect for him, imo. Iglasias though might bring us a AAA shortstop. I would like to see what Herrera can do at the ML level but there’s a logjam, and because of his age I think the Reds will give Peraza a longer leash which further complicates the 2b situation. Doug Gray June 11, 2018 Peraza will get a longer leash because there isn’t anyone internally that’s remotely close as an alternative option at shortstop. They absolutely must find another option in the next 8 months, if for nothing else, as actual depth – not some 30-something career backup who is now terrible. kevinz June 11, 2018 I like Scooter as much as the next Guy but 2nd baseman value in General is crappy. Would get a Future Nothing in a deal . Relievers is where you get the Value. so Hope Iggy shows he is healthy he is the One can get the Future shortstop or CF or SP. kevinz June 11, 2018 Raining like crazy so why not MY fantasy Lineup for our Reds. If you cannot out pitch the other team why not try outscoring them Schebler CF Senzel SS Votto 1st Suarez 3rd Scooter 2nd Winker LF Dixon RF Tucker C Jonathan Linn June 11, 2018 This response is the crowd who believes that the Reds don’t develop players. How about Tucker Barnhart? Taken in the 10th round and never a top prospect who has devloped into a GG Catcher that can get on base?? Wouldn’t that count?