Fangraphs is now the third establishment to release their Cincinnati Reds prospect list following the 2018 season. My list was released just over a month ago, and you can see it right here if you missed it. John Sickels at the unfortunately now defunct Minor League Ball released his Reds list two weeks ago.

Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen combined their efforts to put out their Top 33 prospects for the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday. Their Top 10 portion of the list has the same 10 players on it that my list did. And 9 of the same names that John Sickels list had. Thus far, at least, the three lists from quality sources, are all pretty much on the same line with which players are in the top 10 from the organization.

As I always try to tell people, though, the number that precedes a players name on a prospect list isn’t nearly as important as the words the follow it. The number may tell you how someone places value on how they weigh upside, current skills versus tools, floor, etc. But the words and description of the player tell you what they see with the player and you can then determine how you would like to weigh those things for yourself. And the write ups provided at Fangraphs are pretty good for these guys.

There are a few standouts on the list that differ a bit from mine. Joel Kuhnel comes in at #16 on their list and didn’t make my Top 25. That’s more due to the fact that it’s just tough for me to put relief only prospects that highly who aren’t dominating the upper minor leagues. Kuhnel’s a legit prospect with real stuff who wasn’t far off of making my list.

Bren Spillane came in at #20 on the list. For me, he wasn’t that close. Striking out 41% of the time in Billings just is too much to look at and say it’s going to work out until something really changes. And then at #22 they had Danny Lantigua. He didn’t get much consideration for my Top 25, but was among the next handful of outfielders on my list. The tools are real, but the strikeout rate simply has to improve from where it was to be considered a Top 25 guy for me.

On the flip side, I ranked both Mariel Bautista and Miguel Hernandez quite a bit higher than they did. Bautista is a guy that I put at #11, while they had him at #24. For Hernandez, I had him at #16 and they had him back at #27 on their list. In both of these cases it seems that I bought more into the upside with their ranking than they did. With the guys from the previous two paragraphs it seems that they bought more into the upside than I did.

Set aside twenty minutes and go give the whole thing a read. It’s a good list and there are some things really worth reading about on their list. I’ll still argue that my list is better, but this is high quality work from Eric and Kiley.

10 Responses

  1. Jonathan Linn

    Crazy to here that John Sickels lost his job. I was kind shocked.

    • Doug Gray

      Yeah, I’m not sure of exactly how things broke down for the site over there in terms of traffic and all of that, but I can’t imagine the site wasn’t making money. He’ll land somewhere – even if it’s on his own where he handles things much like I do, and hopefully be just fine. He’s been at it forever it seems. Just wish things had gone a bit differently for him.

  2. Satchmo

    Always be trustin Doug Gray on Reds prospects. He’s put in more eyeball time than anyone else.

  3. Shawn

    I like where he had different categories at the end that didn’t make the list. May be something you should think about doing on your next list. Maybe by positions.

  4. abado

    Bren Spillane had a wRC+ of 110 last year despite striking out over 40% of the time. If he ever gets the strikeouts under control (around 30% is probably the best you can hope for), watch out. That’s a big caveat though.

    Doug, did you consider Rylan Thomas for your list? Do you think its realistic for him to move to catcher (mentioned in the Fangraphs article)?

    I’m mildly excited to see how both of these “first basemen” develop over the next few years. They have some question marks, but their potential positional versatility and power bats are intriguing.

  5. Redsmith

    Why do other sites continually rank Trammel’s speed and defense above Siri’s? Is it the lack of exposure to Siri or something else. I’m constantly surprised at the tool rating when it comes to Siri.

    • greg niemeyer

      There was a mention in the FanGraphs piece that Siri got thicker. Perhaps there is evidence increasing the risk that as matures and fills out he will lose some range.

    • Doug Gray

      I have no clue. I see weird things like this all of the time. Nick Senzel still gets labeled as a 50 or 55 runner. He’s more like a 60/65 runner. And that’s one that’s just hard to understand. There’s literally a scale for it. It’s not a guess. You can time it and put an actual mark on it. It’s not guessing like a hit tool or a power tool or a defense tool.

      • kevinz

        My guess Doug is yo actually see the player and time it. They mostly go by video it seems. I am only guessing here. They get info from others while you are the Info lol.