Cincinnati Reds Minor League Game Review: 5/11/19 Doug Gray May 11, 2019 27 Comments If you are interested in getting emailed every day during the season with additional game notes and a rundown on how the Cincinnati Reds Top 25 Prospects performed (along with other perks) you can sign up to support the site through Patreon and get all of that for as low as $1 a month. If that’s something that sounds interesting you can get more information here. The Louisville Bats had their game suspended. The Bats trail 7-6 in the middle of the 7th. The game will be resumed on Sunday at noon and be followed by their regularly scheduled 9-inning contest. The Chattanooga Lookouts won 5-1 in 5 innings. Box Score TJ Friedl went 1-3. Taylor Trammell went 1-2 with a walk, triple, steal, and he scored 2 runs. Ibandel Isabel went 0-1 with 2 walks and a run scored. Jose Siri went 2-3 with a run, 2 steals, and an RBI. Tyler Stephenson went 1-3 with 2 RBI. Mitch Nay went 1-2 with a solo home run (2). Scott Moss allowed a run in 5.0 innings with 2 walks and 3 strikeouts. The Daytona Tortugas won 7-6. Box Score Jose Garcia went 1-5 with a double, run scored, and he had 2 RBI. Jonathan India went 1-1 with 3 walks, was hit by a pitch, stole a base, and he scored 2 runs. Drew Mount went 2-5 with 2 doubles and 3 RBI. Stuart Fairchild went 2-4, was hit by a pitch, stole a base, and he scored a run. Andy Sugilio went 1-3 with a double, run scored, and he had an RBI. Randy Ventura went 0-2 with 2 walks and a run scored. John Ghyzel threw 2.0 shutout innings with 3 walks and 2 strikeouts. Cory Thompson threw 2.0 shutout innings with a strikeout. Ryan Nutof threw a shutout inning with 2 walks and a strikeout. The Dayton Dragons lost 4-1. Box Score Shard Munroe went 1-4 with a walk. Pabel Manzanero went 1-4 with a double and an RBI. Juan Martinez went 1-2 and he was hit by a pitch. Carlos Rivero went 2-4. Lyon Richardson allowed a run in 4.1 innings with 2 walks and 7 strikeouts. 5/12 Game Preview Team 1st half 2nd half Time (ET) Probable Box Score Listen Live Watch Live Louisville 15-20 N/A 12:00pm TBA/Sims Here Here Here Chattanooga 20-14 N/A 2:15pm Johnson Here Here Here Daytona 18-17 N/A OFF OFF Here Here N/A Dayton 12-23 N/A OFF OFF Here Here Here Share this:FacebookTwitterRedditPocket 27 Responses BronkMan May 12, 2019 On 1/10/19 multiple people questioned why the Reds retained all the low-level minors coaches, even though the big club coaching staff was new & the Reds moved Shawn Pender & Eric Lee to Farm VP & Director, respectively. The consensus was doing the same thing and expecting different results was insanity. Well, it’s also blatant mismanagement, of which DW has to be accountable, in light of the recent Driveline study revealing Cincy, the Chisox & Miami have had the worst Player Dev. over the past 6 years, which is especially alarming considering that the Reds & Astros have had the most high-round picks during that period. Even Doug wrote it was odd, but suggested time be the judge. Well, once players exceed 100 AB’s it’s time to judge Doug. All but 1 affiliate has a winning record and, again, players are severely under-performing. Chattanooga, Daytona, nor Dayton has a position player who merits a promotion, but all have high draft picks who should be demoted. Please don’t say Siri, with a 33% K ratio. Siani was oddly rushed to Dayton and is at .165. That can ruin a player. His bat’s been suspect since HS and travel ball. Don’t blame Buckley (except for wasting $30M on JG, AR & VG, though Eric Lee was involved), blame Graupe, who helmed the Farm during the ignominious period. Why a horrendous pitcher at a tiny Haverford College was qualified to be Farm Director boggles the mind. Why Eric Lee, also a Haverford grad (brought into Development by buddy Graupe in 2014) is qualified to be the new Farm Director is equally flabbergasting. He was hired from an obscure baseball agency, whose owner was also a Haverford alum. As noted by previous posters, Pender lives in Haverford. And, of course, the Haverford agent that Lee worked for also represents Mr. Baseball Analytics, David Bell, the brainiac who said that lineup construction is pretty much meaningless because an analytics book he read said it only creates 1 win at most in a season. I guess that’s why he’s often batted 2 of MLB’s biggest slow pokes (Votto & Winker) lead off. No wonder the Reds are last in runs and SB’s! Just pull names out of a hat, huh? Instead of just “re-arranging the deck chairs” and moving people around w/in an org. that’s been in last for 6 years, the Reds need a complete house cleaning, like Houston & other teams have done. David Bell was a nepotistic hire, who’s dad is a high-level advisor. Many people are shocked that DW named a scout, who had a .222 winning % at little St. Joseph’s, as the architect of Player Development. And he got rid of only 1 coach, former MLB’er, Desi Relaford, who players like & respect and who was the bench coach for Daytona, the best 2018 affiliate. In about 10 years Doug – owner of Reds Minor League Report – has oddly never criticized Graupe, perhaps because the Peter-principled guy, who has been promoted to a role involving implementation of analytics for the big club, has been the Reds leak (ooh, it’s like the FBI). When something is inexplicable it has to do with any or all of the following: Power, sex or money. Well, let’s presume it’s not the last two. Getting “inside” dope is power and having someone listen to you spewing dope, as if you know what you’re talking about, while planting your slanting is power, as well. Sadly, for the Reds and long-time fans, who seemingly care more about the Reds than Haverford grads, it’s time for DW to get rid of sycophants, who have proven detrimental. If he doesn’t the Reds will continue to stink and attendance will continue to fall. Baseball development is the key to a successful big league club, so it’s high time that the Reds bring in genuine development people. Leave the nerds for big league analytics, if you must. DW seems like a good and decent guy, and I want him to be successful, because it’s clear he digs the job and really wants to keep it. In 2020, he should be the only remaining person in management and all big league and minors coaches should be replaced with new blood and new eyes. Clean it out! How many more years of proof will it require for people to see the obvious. Castellini ain’t getting any younger, so if he wants to enjoy a championship he best take action. If he doesn’t, he won’t and us fans will be stupid to continue giving him a revenue stream. I think he truly wants to win, but he’s too entrusting. By the way, look out! Drew Mount is gonna be the dude this year. Ryan May 12, 2019 Thats a lot to unpack. I agree with your overall assessment of Williams. Dick was going to be a major player in the franchise in one way or another. I think he is an overall positive. Got an Academic scholarship at good school, and had a decade of “grooming” before he was the man. The key to making all of this work is getting the best in business in the room with him and its hard to tell. Some moves look like there is nepotism involved but we just dont know. Could they have promoted these guys b/c other teams were attempting to poach them? I do think they could of made Krall Assistant GM and gone after a guy like Thad Levine for GM. Your point about Haverford college being a negative on any job application is laughable. ~20% acceptance rate and you almost always have to write a thesis(1 year min) to graduate. 20% of their economics majors write thesis about baseball and sports. Thad Levine(current GM of the scorching hot Twins), Josh Byrnes(asst. GM for Reds Sox 2003 WS-current VP. Baseball Ops for the Dodgers) are notable alumni, as are 15-20 other high profile people within the game, from agents to MLB execs. RojoBenjy May 12, 2019 This is the first time I’ve heard that you can adequately judge a player after 100 at bats. Is that a consensus among experts? Gilbert Keith Chesterton May 12, 2019 Wow, never let a thing like formatting or paragraphs get in the way of a good rant :) On a side note, as far as Votto & Winker batting atop the order, it’s clearly an attempt to get high OBP guys on base. It’s not like they have Barry Larkin sitting on the bench wanting to get into the lineup. They have to work with what they have. The previous strategy of putting a speedy guy who can’t get on base (Billy Hamilton) didn’t work much better, since he was rarely on base. RobL May 12, 2019 Hard to take your post at face value. You got so many of your facts wrong. Already, it has been pointed out that two teams have winning records. That means half the minors are in the black. Also, you say the Reds are last in runs and stolen bases. The Reds are 22nd in runs and shockingly in the top half of the league in stolen bases. I suspect your statement on the amount of high draft picks is also inaccurate. If you get the easy stuff wrong, why would I pay attention to the rest of what you say? Doug Gray May 12, 2019 Wow. Not even sure where to start here. But let’s try. 100 at-bats is not enough time. It’s not even remotely close. I’ve never been critical of the developmental staff? Must have missed where I noted how bad they’ve been at developing pitching on more than a few occasions. Every organization in baseball is going towards analytics in the minor leagues with their development. Talk all you want about the coaches that stuck around, and that you want to change them – but the “leave the analytics to the Majors” thing is a weird take. Everyone is moving that direction. As for the Driveline study – which again, strangely enough was me being critical at times within – also needs time to actually full come to fruition. It’s still going to look bad in the long run, because those trades involving Chapman and others probably destroy their ability to reap too many future rewards (a guy like Senzel, for example, had high expectations, so even if he turned into an All-Star, his value won’t be huge in that study since he won’t have outperformed his expectation a ton). Maybe a Luis Castillo changes things in a bigish way given that when acquired his outlook was more as a reliever/#4 starter and that excess value does plenty. As for Castellini wanting to win – yeah, I think he does too. Open the checkbook, Bob. You can’t take it with you. Wes May 12, 2019 Fantastic post bronkman. Thanks for all the in depth info and breakdown. Michael Smith May 12, 2019 Small side note, two of the affiliates have a winning record Oldtimer May 12, 2019 I actually think W-L is important in MiLB. The Reds of the 1960s and 1970s learned how to win in MiLB. Bob Howsam and Bill DeWitt made it a priority. Cguy May 12, 2019 Another good start by Moss. In his last 3 starts, Scott has pitched 16 innings of 1 run baseball, allowing only 6 hits, 11 walks, & striking out 20. He still needs to lower that walk rate, but he’s adjusting. Among hitting leaders in the Southern League is: #3 Alfredo Rodriguez (ss) .313 BA, #12 Tyler Stephenson (c) .284 BA, & #14 Jose Siri (cf) .279 BA. That’s all good news. We already knew those 3 can provide + defense. Norwood Nate May 12, 2019 I had noticed, and looked up Moss’ last couple starts as well. It’s good to see him make the improvements. I’ve tended to be higher on Moss than Doug has in the past, typically having ranked him in my personal the top 25. The walks do need to come down but he’s moving in the right direction recently. The AA jump is the biggest leap of talent in the minors, so I’m definitely willing to give him more time to make the necessary adjustments. MK May 12, 2019 The AA level is the toughest jump to make prior to the majors. I think it says alot for Scott that he has been able to adjust very quickly to make his style more successful at the AA level. This is positive for the future as he moves up. On the first post above I would argue about no players meritting promotion. Josh VanMeter merited it and was promoted. Luis Gonzalez merited it and was promoted. Drew Mount skipped a level and was thus promoted. There are others who could be promoted but the pro’s have decided that they would benifit more by staying at the level they are. TedRed May 12, 2019 Thx. BronkMan for telling it like it is, though I disagree that Dick W. should not be fired. All nepotism and failure to get results must go. Also, who the bloody heck cares about the degree (Haverford) of a development guy (Graupe and Lee). I don’t care if development people only have a GED or didn’t even graduate; all I care about is are they impactful in reaching and teaching BASEBALL, not that they wrote a thesis to graduate. BTW: I just looked up Pender on Baseball Cube and BM was right, Pender is unqualified to be VP of Development. His unbelievably-low winning percentages (.333/.333/.222) in his only 3 years of coaching in college is laughable. He’s not qualified. If he can’t get college kids developed, how’s he gonna be successful with pro ball players? He won’t be. Full stop. How could anyone off the street do worse. And Eric Lee has only a few years in Latin America, after graduating. Smart guy, but clearly NOT a baseball guy. Doug Gray May 12, 2019 Ted, is there a reason that you and Bronkman are posting from the same IP address? Jim May 12, 2019 Yeah it’s nice to see Siri and Stephson doing ok. Still in need of a catching and it will take 2 more years for Stephson and then 2/3 more yrs probably before he really contributes. I notice more rants, including my own. I enjoyed 3 championship’s in my lifetime, but this ORGANIZATION is horrible. How worse could it be if Bob C sold me this team on weekly payments with my 6th grade edumacation. I graduatached from the prestijus Jethro Bodine of highrr edumacation. Oldtimer May 12, 2019 https://www.mlb.com/reds/prospects/stats/affiliates?date=05/11/2019 interesting look at boxscores from Reds and MiLB affiliates yesterday. Klondike512 May 12, 2019 RojoBenjy – You can judge players with 100+ AB’s, when a historical pattern is evident. “Experts” would concur. Mama Mia! Brantley Bell is .248, w/ low OB% in 5 years. That’s a pattern. Lower down, Willems has 1 BB in 100 AB’s & BA at the Mendoza line, with gobs of E’s, which is a yearly pattern. Jose Garcia has 8 E’s in 16 games, is at .246 and falling. That’s a yearly pattern. Siri has a 33% K-rate, but still he should go to AAA and maybe soon to Reds, cuz they need help. I say India should move, but Mitch Nay is in AA and is solid. Peep say keep Suarez cuz he has a team-friendly contract. Yo! We’re in last, again, and can finish there w/out him, while netting players with a trade, thus opening paths for players. If Suarez not traded, then trade India or move him to SS. What’s the plan? Reds need bats. Trammel struggling, but no worries cuz what he’s doing is an aberration, not a pattern. Send him to AAA. Move guys up so they may possibly help the Reds this summer. Doug Gray May 12, 2019 Weird. Another post from the same IP as Ted and Bronkman. Either it’s the weirdest coincidence in the world that you’ve all got similar ideas and just happen to also be huge Reds minor league followers at the same exact coffee shop, or it’s one person pretending to now be three (or more). RojoBenjy May 12, 2019 Doug- Haven’t you heard about that new coffeeshop for trolls? Doug Gray May 12, 2019 Not until today, no. But I’m always trying to learn new things. Ha Ha Dix May 12, 2019 Have you ever thought you are not that important to to have anyone’s true IP address or real name so maybe you can sell their info. You are just a small time blogger with the same followers who troll each other. Doug Gray May 12, 2019 I didn’t design WordPress. The IP’s are there whether I would like them to be or not. I’m definitely a small time something, but I’m more than a blogger. As for the selling their info – I think you think that’s a lot easier to do than it actually is. At least for a single, individual website. Google? Facebook? Places that are tracking you every single place you go? Yeah, it’s pretty easy for them. Champ Summers May 12, 2019 Hilarious. Seems that same IP address also has the same broken return key. kevinz May 12, 2019 I feel like it is to soon to Judge the talent drafted last few years. The 1 major reason is too soon. Plus the reds Tanked on Purpose. 200 AB’s usually the amount to see how a player going to do. The first 100 ab to learn the level. The next 100 AB’s to see how adjust to the Pitchers or how the Pitchers adjust the the batter. mk May 12, 2019 Doug, without using a different name I will just go lower case and say I agree with every point I ever made. Doug Gray May 13, 2019 Bold strategy, MK, but I’ll allow it. RojoBenjy May 13, 2019 Well done.