2019 Reds Draft: Day 1 information, notes, discussion Doug Gray June 3, 2019 149 Comments The first day of the 2019 Major League Baseball Draft is upon us. Things won’t get started until 7pm ET tonight. You can watch on television on MLB Network, or you can stream it on MLB.com. Tonight will feature the 1st and 2nd rounds. 2019 MLB Draft Information There are 40 rounds in the draft. Monday will see rounds 1 and 2 take place. On Tuesday, beginning at 1pm ET, rounds 3-10 will take place. On Wednesday is when things get wild and we will see rounds 11-40 take place all in one day. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will be available to follow on MLB.com. It should go without saying, but I will say it anyways: I’ll also have coverage on all of the Cincinnati Reds picks here over the next three days. The Cincinnati Reds will not have any additional draft picks this season. They traded their competitive balance pick in 2019 to the Yankees in the Sonny Gray deal. Here is the bonus pool amount for each of their first 10 picks (1 per round): $5,432,400 $1,507,600 $710,700 $507,400 $379,000 $286,500 $224,000 $178,600 $156,100 $146,300 Picks taken in rounds 11-40 can be signed for up to $125,000 without any money counting towards the overall bonus pool. Anything over that amount does count. Teams are allowed to go over their allotment, but there are penalties. If a team spends 0-5% over their allotment they simply pay a 75% tax on the amount they went over by. Beyond that teams begin to lose draft picks AND have to pay a 75% or higher tax. No team has ever gone over the 5% threshold. Draft Resources This will be updated throughout the day as some places will update and publish new pieces, but as I type this at 1am on Sunday, here’s the latest. Draft Rankings My Personal Top 20 Draft Prospects (June 2nd) Baseball America’s Top 500 (subscription required) MLB Pipeline Top 200 Fangraphs Top 442 (UPDATED June 3rd, 1:30pm) ESPN’s Top 100 (subscription required) Latest Mock Drafts Baseball America (subscription required) – June 3rd – late afternoon MLB Pipeline – Jonathan Mayo Edition – June 3rd, 12:30am Fangraphs – June 3rd (UPDATED – 7pm) ESPN (subscription required) – June 3rd Discussion While this technically isn’t going to be an “all questions answered” kind of day, at least until the draft starts, I’m going to do my best to be in the comments section answering what you’ve got related to the draft. Updates throughout the day will be posted in this section (and if mock drafts are updated, they will also be added/changed above). Update at 11:30am Fangraphs and ESPN both have up new mock drafts. You can see the Fangraphs mock draft here and it has the Reds selecting catcher Shea Langeliers out of Baylor. The ESPN mock draft has the Reds selecting Nick Lodolo out of TCU, but also mentions Langeliers and RHP George Kirby as options. Worth noting that the Fangraphs mock mentions Kirby seems to be out as an option. Update: 12:55pm I hate doing this, but it’s also one of the busiest days of the year traffic wise, and the next three days are absolutely the three days that I put in more work than any other three out of the year. If you get any value from the site and what I do here, and you’ve got $1 or more to spare a month, why not look into supporting the work via Patreon? You get some decent perks for doing so, and it really helps keep the site going more than anything else does. If you’re interested in doing so, you can get more details right here. Update: 1:45pm There’s some rumors floating around about multiple teams in the top half of the draft that look to be working on under slot deals to save money for later in the draft. The Reds haven’t exactly been linked to that kind of situation today, but they have been over the last month at times. That brings up the interesting question of whether or not it makes sense to do so, and does it make sense for the Reds? For some teams, it could make sense. For the Reds, in 2019, it’s tough for me to say that it does. The Reds draft 7th overall. They won’t draft again until the 49th spot. Taking someone who isn’t the top guy on your board to save money to get someone later, at 49, simply doesn’t make much sense. It’s a huge gamble that someone “worth” that saved money is going to be there that far down the draft. If that player isn’t, and you took someone lesser than the top guy on your board thinking you can get better value later, and now you can’t, you’ve just taken two players lesser than you planned to because you felt the need to get cute. Don’t get cute. The historical value of the #49 pick is that of a utility player or solid middle reliever. Get the #7 pick right. Update: 2:05pm Fangraphs has updated their Draft Rankings for the final time. Players that are up, from memory since they just update the page rather than create a new one for each update and thus you can’t look back at previous rankings: Shea Langeliers, Kody Hoese, Quinn Priester, Keoni Cavaco. The one guy that has dropped that I see is Jackson Rutledge. Updated: 6:00pm There hasn’t really been much to happen this afternoon, which is a bit strange. MLB Pipeline has made The Draft Tracker live, so you can keep up with that right here. ESPN has updated their Mock Draft. Nothing has changed since this morning as it relates to the Reds. The same can be said for the Baseball America Mock Draft, which was updated within the last 30 minutes. One quick thought that I had, that I meant to point out earlier but forgot to: Expect the Reds to sign everyone they draft on days 1 and 2. Very seldom does a player not sign on those days for any organization – teams check on the signability of these guys before drafting them. The few that do go unsigned, it’s almost always due to a medical issue that popped up after drafting the player. Update: 7:00pm The guys at Fangraphs just pushed their final mock draft that was the full 1st and 2nd round. They have the Reds taking Nick Lodolo in the 1st. In the 2nd it’s Sammy Siani. Nothing has changed on either of those for a while with Fangraphs for the Reds. Share this:FacebookTwitterRedditPocket 149 Responses Seat101 June 3, 2019 Thanks, Doug! When the Yankees use their “Sonny Gray” pick will you please let us know if they chose “wisely” or “poorly”? Doug Gray June 3, 2019 What if I let you know in 7 years from now when he have good idea if the pick worked out or not? Seat101 June 3, 2019 I’ll settle for you telling us home you would have taken, since you’re not that busy and all Doug Gray June 3, 2019 I don’t go 50 players deep in my coverage for the draft. It’s simply a waste of my time to look that deep. So I have no idea who I would take that deep into the draft. Brent June 3, 2019 Reds seem locked in on Lodolo unless things shift dramatically in front of them. When signed is Lodolo a top 5 prospect in the system, top 10 or lower? The Duke June 3, 2019 I’d argue he’s in the top 3 or 4 in our system immediately after signing. After his hot start Trammell has been pretty average, but will still be ranked higher. Santillan has struggled to take that next step, India is probably still ranked higher than Lodolo. T Steph I could see either way, but I’d lean towards Lodolo. Vlad Gut is getting pounded in AAA (although most pitchers are this year) so i’d lean Lodolo. Greene is hurt, Siani struggling, i’d lean Lodolo. Trammell India Lodolo T Steph Greene I think that’s my top 5 That said, I don’t think Lodolo is the lock the mock drafters would have us believe. I think it’s moreso they don’t know the Reds new scouting director and what he’ll do so everyone is going group think conservative with it. Lodolo could be the pick, but if on of the hitters fall I could see them, I could see George Kirby on an underslot deal or Alek Manoah as well. Honestly, not too much will surprise me when the Reds pick tonight. I’ll be checking Twitter like crazy while coaching my boys baseball games tonight though, haha. Doug Gray June 3, 2019 Assuming that he doesn’t sign immediately – and I do mean almost immediately, probably. Nick Senzel will lose his eligibility to remain on prospect lists with 11 more at-bats in the Majors. At that point I think you could make the argument that Lodolo, assuming that is the pick, slides in after the top 4 guys and into the #5 spot. That said, the reports that I get on whoever the Reds pick will come into play, too. Right now I’m simply getting generic reports on everyone. Once the pick has happened and we know who it is, I can reach out to scouts I know and get a little more detailed information from ones I trust. That could be good. Or it could be not so good. donny June 3, 2019 I would put Lodolo 4th behind 1.Taylor Trammell 2. Hunter Greene 3. Jonathan India Greene will fall down in rankings because of the injury and he will miss a year but he still is a top notch talent if the injury does not hurt him and he’s able to come back from it. The Duke June 3, 2019 I’ll move him back up once he’s healthy and he shows us what he is post injury is still that electric talent. Currently on the shelf with TJS is going to knock him down some for me. donny June 3, 2019 Well i disagree, Keep him there at 2. Then if it shows that he lost some from injury, then maybe put Lodolo ahead. I say that because if they were in the same draft. There is no question Hunter would go before Lodolo and i am not going to drop him from my ratings. Unless he don’t come back that well from it. Then move him down if that is the case. It really isn’t that big of deal Duke. I guess i am a kinda guy that looks at the glass half full. Norwood Nate June 3, 2019 I don’t think I’d place him top 5. I think Trammell, India, Santillan, T. Stephenson, and Greene will be ranked ahead of him in some order. Maybe even Siri, but definitely more debate there. For me he’d slot in #6/7. kevinz June 3, 2019 I am not sure what order each prospect will Rated at. I do know for sure each one will turn our different then we all think. Bruce was more highly Ranked then Votto before the bigs. Bailey was Ranked higher then Cueto. We all seen how that has turned out later on. RedBB June 3, 2019 Lodolo would easily be above Stephenson in my book. Kid has still never OPS’d above .800 his entire career and is at .750 this year. If he wasn’t a catcher he wouldn’t even be in the Reds top 20 prospects list. Doug Gray June 3, 2019 But he IS a catcher. That’s awfully important. Norwood Nate June 3, 2019 Stephenson has a .758 OPS this season while Trammell has a .720 OPS. It’s the first season in AA for both, and both are younger than the average age for the league. For a catcher, where’s it is common for the offense to develop later than other positions, to make the most difficult jump in the minors while hitting the ground running, I’d say that’s a big win for Stephenson and the Reds. He’s a definite move up in the rankings in my book. Matthew O'Neal June 3, 2019 I think I’ll be happy with Lodolo, Manoah, or Rutledge. I think my order would be Rutledge, Manoah, Lodolo. Pokey Reese's Red Hot Bat June 3, 2019 With this apparently being a “weak” draft if nobody drops would it be worthwhile drafting a first rounder who wouldn’t sign, so as to get the 8th pick next year instead? Whilst it may have implications for the 2019 signing pool, having two 1st round picks (and a Competitive Balance pick?) would dramatically boost the 2020 signing pool. RobL June 3, 2019 Never dump a pick. It goes double for the Reds this year. Dayton isn’t exactly brimming with talent. Gaffer June 3, 2019 My thoughts exactly, but then you can’t do ano overslot guys. Doug Gray June 3, 2019 Absolutely not. kevinz June 3, 2019 Not feeling the Pitching in this Draft. Stott , Henderson, Baty is who i would choose. My hope whoever the Reds Take is the right choice. Whether i am right or wrong. Reds showed you can flip IF Prospects for Pitching. Grab the Bats Reds. The Duke June 3, 2019 Baty is nearly 20 and still facing HS pitching. I’d look at his JR year numbers when evaluating him. Those might be just as impressive, I don’t know, but that age gap is a red flag. I’d be happy with either Stott or Henderson at 7. kevinz June 3, 2019 I agree Duke i am iffy on Baty age as well. I usually look at that for a HS prospect. I figured he is eligible for the draft in 2 years if he performs he could be a top 5 pick by then. It is sure risky i do prefer Stott and Henderson over him. donny June 3, 2019 A Red Flag ? A guy that is projected to go in the first 20 picks a first rounder. The Duke June 3, 2019 His age is nearly 20, not his projected pick. He’s nearly 20 years old already and still in high school facing 15/15/17 year old pitching, most of which won’t go pro. Even on the showcase circuit he was largely facing guys 1-2 years younger than himself. donny June 3, 2019 Look at it like this . They guy has skills and the tools who cares if he’s 20 years old. That doesn’t mean that he won’t go through the system just as fast as any other high school talent. So what if he’s 2 years older than normal when he reaches the big leagues Doug Gray June 3, 2019 Scouts are absolutely judging him based off of how old he is. If you don’t think they are, and don’t think they have more questions about him because of it, you’re wrong. Scouts hold it against guys who are “old 18-year-olds” as seniors, much less guys that are 19. Physicality, maturity, experience – all of those things are massively advantageous for a guy like this versus other high schoolers. The Duke June 3, 2019 You don’t think the top HS arms were pitching for their teams as sophmores? I guarantee you Baty has faced 15 year olds this spring. An extra year of maturity is huge. Doug Gray June 3, 2019 Definitely with The Duke on this one. Guys are playing against 14 and 15-year-old pitchers way more often than some of you guys are suggesting. donny June 3, 2019 I am pretty high on Lodolo. He still has a lot of projection left when he puts on some weight. Manoah and Kirby not so much. i am with you on Henderson and Baty, they will be the position players steal of the draft out of the first round. I don’t care how old Baty is. I find that to be nonsense. Either the kid has the tools or he don’t it’s as simple as that. I also hear a lot about the competition of some players being a issue. I also find that to be nonsense. Either he has the skills and stuff and personality or he doesn’t. The last one to come to mind that got pushed down in the draft because of so called lack of competition. Was a guy from Kentucky high school Jo Adell the now 14th ranked prospect in baseball. kevinz June 3, 2019 I agree Donny with pretty much with what you said. I am horrible with judging Pitching. Lodolo could be chris Sale and i would miss it. That is if does not Gain weight. I want henderson like wanted Corey Seager. Not saying the same player but very similar. The Duke June 3, 2019 Baty is nearly a year older than Adell, and muscle development is a huge part of the advantage he had over facing kids younger. If they are that sold on the bat, go for it. A red flag doesn’t make someone undraftable, but it’s something you should try to dig deeper on (i.e. – checking his junior year stats and showcase appearances moreso than his senior year for a more age accurate comparison). donny June 3, 2019 Kevin that’s interesting . I had him compared to Gavin Lux in the Dodgers farm system. kevinz June 3, 2019 Nice Comp Donny probably better then mine on size alone a this Point. Doug Gray June 3, 2019 This is very incorrect. He’s facing underclassmen more often than he’s facing seniors. donny June 3, 2019 OK, where is your facts on it Doug. Doug Gray June 3, 2019 My facts on it are listening to Major League scouts talk about it. I’m paraphrasing this now, because the conversation happened in March out in Goodyear with a scout, but basically it went like this: With some of these guys who are nearly 19, or in some cases already 19, you’re out there playing against 14 and 15-year-olds. That’s not telling us much. Are you a prospect still at this age if you are playing at a high profile junior college instead of your high school? That’s the question we are looking to answer. Teams are factoring in the age of the player. And the age of the guys they are facing. donny June 3, 2019 And i am not just saying seniors . I am saying juniors and Seniors lets make that clear on what i am saying donny June 3, 2019 Juniors and Seniors are considered upperclassmen. The average age for Juniors in high school is 17. The average age for Seniors in high school are 18. donny June 3, 2019 So your telling me or i should say the Scouts are telling you that a 14 year old 8th grader is pitching for the high school varsity team and more often that not 15 year old freshmen make up the bulk of the starting pitching in high school . Doug Gray June 3, 2019 I’m telling you that there’s a lot more dudes pitching on their high school teams that aren’t old enough to legally drive than was being suggested. donny June 3, 2019 How does Baty face a 14 year old 8th grade pitcher in high school. When you have to be at least a 15 year old freshman to participate for the varsity baseball team. What is it some kind of recreational play for fun or something he’s being judge on ? And the majority of the high school starting pitchers are freshman and sophomore that Baty is facing . Doug Gray June 3, 2019 Well, for starters, in many states, if you are good enough as a middle schooler you can absolutely play varsity sports for the high school you would attend. Second, plenty of kids don’t turn 15 until late in their freshman year. I didn’t turn 15 until April as a freshman. Baseball season began in March. Now, of course middle schoolers playing varsity sports is insanely rare. But plenty of freshman are 14. Plenty of sophomores are 15. Not many seniors are 19. Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, can we get back to discussing something actually useful? donny June 3, 2019 So basically, your getting my suggestion of basically 90% of the starting pitchers in high school baseball are juniors and Seniors is lower than what i would suggest is 90%. Based on a scout that told you that he plays against 14 and 15 year olds. Not [pitchers] but 14 and 15 year olds ? And you base that on your facts that 90% of pitchers in high school are juniors and seniors is a blatantly incorrect ? Not to mention 14 year olds can’t play for a high school team. Does that statement from scouts sound like facts to you. He says he plays against 14 which is not true and 15 year olds which i am sure there are freshman on the team but starting pitchers? Starting pitchers is what i am talking about here. donny June 3, 2019 Well i guess that 14 year olds even though it’s rare and only legal in some states is the majority of pitchers that Baty is facing ? Doug Gray June 3, 2019 Stop. Seriously. donny June 3, 2019 So basically i am not blatantly so incorrect on upperclassmen make up the bulk of about 90% of the starting pitching in high school baseball. ”You think that number is lower than that”. but there is no real facts. Other than a scout that says he plays against 14 rare and only legal in some states and 15 year olds but not starting pitchers, and you said that the underclassmen make up the bulk of the players that he is facing in the batters box. Doug Gray June 3, 2019 Dude, I was a 14-year-old freshman. It wasn’t illegal. I’m going to leave this comment up for about 15 more minutes just so you can see it. Then I’m deleting this entire ridiculously stupid discussion that’s wasting useful space in the comments. donny June 3, 2019 What ? wasteful space ? You want to delete it . its legal in some states and illegal in other states we get that. As stated in the comments. Whatever Doug. Doug Gray June 3, 2019 There’s no need for such a silly conversation on draft day. It’s simple: Teams, all of them, think when a guy is 19 and in high school, he’s at a major, major advantage. Let’s leave it at that and not waste any more time with this. There are 100+ comments here and 30 of them revolve around a rather useless part of this conversation. Big Will June 3, 2019 There are a bunch of underclassman that pitch for top high school teams down here in Texas. My son was one of them. Typically a good team only has three to four upperclassman with a few underclassman. Especially if you don’t have the team talent to go very far that year, you will see coaches working their underclassman so that they get the experience in big games prior to the rest of the team maturing. Doug is very correct on this one. AirborneJayJay June 3, 2019 Interesting that Baltimore is said to be unsettled still at this time for the 1-1 pick. If they don’t take Rutschmann that could lead to some things getting shaken up at the top. I just have a feeling that a pitcher is going to be taken before the Reds pick. If it is Lodolo, that makes the Reds pick very interesting. I am hoping for a couple of surprises in the top 6 and that it doesn’t follow the script the mocks have laid out. That will be kind of boring. Manoah and Rutledge are great alternatives and the bat in the top 6 that drops a wee bit will also be there. Then the Reds could go LHP in the second round with above slot money to forego college to LHP Blake Walston (NC St. commit, ranked #37 by Fangraphs) or Hunter Barco (UF commit, #40), or maybe even SS Gunnar Henderson (Auburn commit, #43). What is your line of thinking on the Reds opening a 40-man roster spot with no corresponding move announced to go with it? The timing? No one is ready to come off of the IL yet is there? So, is this draft/trade related in that the Reds may be trying to trade and recoup a Comp. Balance A pick, #35 – #41? An area where there is good depth in this draft and could be mined better with another pick than with just the #49 pick, their second round pick. The Duke June 3, 2019 Pure posturing imo. They want to sign Rutschman under slot, so they throw out some doubt. Now if I could get Witt for $500k-$1 million less than Rustchman, that I would think about, but those 2 are the clear top 2 in the draft to me. Doug Gray June 3, 2019 I don’t believe it for a second. The Orioles are simply trying to keep the rumors out there so Rutschman’s camp may be willing to take slightly less money at #1. The only thing I could come up with in regards to the Lopez move was the Reds figured with how busy everyone was with the draft stuff that maybe they could sneak him through waivers unclaimed. Otherwise, I’m just confused as to the reasoning. kevinz June 3, 2019 I think it from the guy who is Picking came from the Stros. He Took the suppose cheaper player in Carlos Correa . Then was able to net more talent later on as well. Balt being weak everywhere it could make sense to not take a C. I am not saying it is true. Theory or truth is what i am saying The Duke June 3, 2019 I completely agree with trading Shed and the comp pick for Sonny, but man this is the day you wish you still had that pick. It was the right move though, the odds that pick ends up anywhere close to as good as Sonny is slim to none and Slim is on his way out of town. RojoBenjy June 3, 2019 Isn’t there some validity in thinking that the MiLB pitcher the Yankees gave up in the trade has about the same value as the comp pick that the Reds traded will have/does have? Hoyce June 3, 2019 Doug- what’s ur prediction on who reds take? I’m gonna go w a long shot- Shea langiliers Doug Gray June 3, 2019 I don’t have a prediction. Who they take is entirely about who the other teams in front of them take. And I don’t have a clue how that plays out. The Duke June 3, 2019 I think we have some idea. The top 6 (Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene, Abrams) is almost universally the top 6 in projections. Defintely a chance there is a surprise before the Reds pick, or an underslot deal with someone, but the odds are on those 6 going top 6. Wes June 3, 2019 I don’t think it’s ever Happened that way w the baseball draft. Someone is keeping their pick close and will surprise ya tonight before reds pick. If not more than one team. How bout question rephrased- what’s best case most likely scenario for reds at 7 Doug, in your opinion ?? Doug Gray June 3, 2019 Best case? Adley Rutschman falls to them for the silliest reason ever and they get to draft him. Most likely “perfect storm”? Vaughn falls to them. terry m June 3, 2019 He had a 3 HR game the other day in the NCAA tourney… RojoBenjy June 3, 2019 If they take Langoliers I will seriously question their competence. redwolf June 3, 2019 Now that the catcher from Baylor is healthy, would he be a bad pick here? I know he broke a bone in his hand early in the season, but, he seems to be recovered from that and I know he is the dude behind the plate. (I think he just had a 3 homer game in their 1st round playoffs so the power seems to be coming back.) Doug Gray June 3, 2019 I wouldn’t take Langeliers here. I wouldn’t consider him here. The Duke June 3, 2019 His bat was questionable even before his injury and while he’s played this year, he’s done nothing to quiet those concerns. Defensively, he’s MLB ready now, which is huge for a catcher, but if the bat is never there, it’s a big risk. Would you spend the #7 overall pick on the next Tucker Barnhart? Haven June 3, 2019 Tucker Barnhart with more power at 7? You could do worse. Doug Gray June 3, 2019 And you *should* do a lot better, too. Coop June 3, 2019 Doug I have a serious question: If one of bats projected in the top 6 falls to 7, who is most likely and who would most likely take Lodolo in the top 6? The Duke June 3, 2019 I’ve heard rumors about Lodolo going to the Tigers at 5, and rumors of Bishop to the Padres at 6. The two most likely to fall seem to be Abrams because of perceived limited power upside, and Vaughn because of his height (5’11”) and defensive limitations (1B/DH). I wouldn’t be totally shocked if Greene fell a bit as a HS corner OF only, maybe even LF only. kevinz June 3, 2019 SD picked Bishop not Long ago in the Late Rds. That could be why the rumor is true or made up from that. Doug Gray June 3, 2019 The two guys it seems could fall out are Vaughn or Abrams, as The Duke noted. Lodolo’s been rumored as high as the Tigers at #5. The Padres at #6 have also been linked to him recently. kevinz June 3, 2019 Would u take Vaugh if fell to us in this spot Doug or Duke? Does his Position stop you from taking him? Doug Gray June 3, 2019 I’d absolutely take Vaughn. I’ll worry about if he’s got a spot to play in 18 months. kevinz June 3, 2019 I agree Doug thanks for your opinion Doug. Billy June 3, 2019 Doug, fangraphs is saying that the Reds would pass on Abrams if he’s available at 7. Do you have any reason to believe otherwise? If Lodolo is off the board, it means one of the top 6 hitters is still available. How likely is it that the Reds would pass on the chance to draft one of those guys? The Duke June 3, 2019 Some teams see Abrams as a 40 power guy and more likely a CF than a SS. Even those highest on Abrams see his future power as average. If the Reds see Abrams as a 40 power CF, I could see them passing on him at 7. He is a 70-80 speed guy with a plus bat and above average arm though. Doug Gray June 3, 2019 I don’t, but honestly, I’m not exactly in contact with the guys making the pick for the Reds, either. Everything we have heard is that the Reds want a college bat at #7, but would settle for one of the top college pitchers there if those guys weren’t there. In the last week or so we’ve started to hear links that they could take Shea Langeliers there, too. Unless the high schooler there is Witt, which seems insanely unlikely, I think they go college guy – and if it’s a college bat that drops out of the top 6, it’ll be that guy. victor vollhardt June 3, 2019 Just as important (in some cases more so) as the talent (now and projected future) is who the agent for each prospect is. This brings into play the “sign ability” and in the case of some teams and some agents relationships the mere presence of each other makes any kind of a deal a non-starter.——–For starters how many of the top 20 are Boras clients? – For some teams -not a problem or one that they are willing to take on–for others (Reds??) it makes for a pass. Doug Gray June 3, 2019 The Reds have had no issues at all signing Boras clients. Nick Senzel was a Boras client. So is/was Michael Lorenzen. The agent is vastly overrated now that the slot system is in place. Tom June 3, 2019 Langeliers seems like late 1st round to mid 2nd round value. I would really dislike that pick. Doug Gray June 3, 2019 This is where I’m at. In this draft, which is considered pretty weak, I still ranked him 20th, and I didn’t really even like having him that high. I trust college hitters who don’t walk at least as much as they strike out about as far as I can throw them. Which today, with my bad elbow, literally is zero feet. Norwood Nate June 3, 2019 I like Stott, Carroll, Manoah, Lodolo if the top 6 are gone. Hoping for a bat. Not interested in Langeliers at all in the first round. How the first six picks go will be interesting to see and how it’ll effect the Reds selection. redwolf June 3, 2019 Why has Josh Jung dropped? is it just because of lack of position versatility? Doug Gray June 3, 2019 Probably, yes. First basemen simply have to RAKE. And he’s likely to wind up at first base. redwolf June 3, 2019 I think he is the 3rd best college hitter in this draft. Hits for power and average and yes he has slightly struck out more than he has walked but not an eye popping number. I think he could also play left field if given the chance, but, I am not a scout. I just liken his approach to Senzel’s…. he is just bigger. Not as agile. Doug Gray June 3, 2019 The track record for college hitters who strike out more than they walk is not good. Even if it’s “just a little”. The elite college hitters walk nearly twice as much as they strike out. kevinz June 3, 2019 I agree Doug. India look at him at A + ball. He has about a 3 to 1 SO to BB ratio. I get it is a tough league in the FSL. He struck out about as much as he walked in his last year in College. So if take a College Bat take one who BB more then he SO. redwolf June 3, 2019 Okay so order of what we may want for hitters 1. Vaughn 2. Stott 2nd round if available 1. Micheal Bush (might be around for lack of position) 2. Will Wilson (might be around because got nicked up and was less productive second half of season but was freak injury) Pitchers 1. Lodolo (not really anyone else) 2nd round 1. isiah Campbell 2. Blake Walston (high schooler) kevinz June 3, 2019 I agree on the Hitters you have. I like Corbin and Henderson out of HS hitters. Both seem like plus Hitters I like Ruthledge srt spelling and Monoah. I stink at Pitchers to be honest. The only reason like them 2 is both improved on things plus performed i think down the stretch. LOLO so off and on for my Liking. He could be Great though. 2nd Rd. depends on if take a College player in round 1. If reds do go College i can see a HS player at 49 for Upside. If take HS in rd 1. I like Wyatt in rd 2. He plays for contact right now. So he has a feel to Hit. Bigger guy i am sure can Add power. redwolf June 3, 2019 OK this is good. other than Vaughn, what other good college hitters are out there that walk twice as much as they strike out. I know Stott is a positive in this category, would he be in consideration? is there anyone else? I like these conversations. kevinz June 3, 2019 Stott is my top player for that reason wolf. Off the top my head. Both Vaughn Stott controlled the Zone the best. Vaugh i always figured would be Gone before Pick 7. Stott seems to get over looked. I have this feeling a Great team will get him. RobL June 3, 2019 If the Reds do go with Langliers, they need to get a big discount. The only problem is that there seem to be a bunch of teams that are interested in him right after us. There are a lot of players with similar ratings all grouped together at the Reds pick. I would look for the best deal to cut. Then use that money to pick a few high school guys in the 500K range later. Way too hard to push somebody down to that 2nd pick without having to overpay. I believe the draft is a gamble. The more chances you take, the better your odds of getting a winner. Get a few projectionable high school guys to go with solid college guys at the top of the draft. haven June 3, 2019 I say take alek manoah, if the top six are gone. I think he has a high floor, worst case he’s a great setup man. redwolf June 3, 2019 If Nick L. is not there… I would take best available college bat that they are comfortable with. Then go with higher upside pitcher in 2nd round. Doug has mentioned before this draft is not very strong. I would take something solid at number 1 and either a home run or a foul ball with my second round pick. There are some solid outfield prospects that will be available in the third round. Maybe even the 4th round too, which might allow us to get another pitcher in the third. If we take someone that ultimately turns out to be a set up man… I am not sure that is a win. I would want a front line pitcher or an every day starter when picking this high. (but I do see what you are saying with a back up plan for him if he does not work out as a starter) Tyler Brackett June 3, 2019 I’m taking Stott or Carroll if the top 6 are off the board Doug Gray June 3, 2019 I read this and immediately thought of the best baseball-related video of all time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maJzUsUBjf0 Rich H June 3, 2019 That video is amazing lol. Big Will June 3, 2019 Oh my God that is funny. Dan June 3, 2019 Doug, any idea who was on the list of 25 players that were in for predraft workouts Doug Gray June 3, 2019 Nope. Mongo June 3, 2019 The Mongo hope all the draft picks are baseball players. Doug Gray June 3, 2019 Same, Mongo. Same. DaveCT June 3, 2019 Mongo lives!!!! DaveCT June 3, 2019 Not a moment to spare, either! RojoBenjy June 3, 2019 Mongo!!! Me like see you again. Mongo good. RobL June 3, 2019 If the pick is Langeliers, I will always wonder if it was because he hit 3 home runs in a game against Nebraska-Omaha…. The Duke June 3, 2019 Tell Rutschman’s agent we will give him $10 million and then spend rounds 2-10 all on seniors. Could a player throw out a $10 million number and try to force that? Doug Gray June 3, 2019 They could. And their bluff would be called. donny June 3, 2019 I think Blake Walston will be the high school pitcher in the draft that will be a steal. donny June 3, 2019 Will Rigney the other steal Doc June 3, 2019 As a curiosity, take the last five different pitchers in each league to win the Cy Young, and list their draft position. I’m not a stats guy, but I suspect they weren’t all top of first round picks. Bowden made a comment the other day about pitching in the draft. Draft three pitchers to get one. Of the three, one will never even come close, one will flame out along the way, one will perform and make the majors. Of course, I don’t know how credible Bowden is. donny June 3, 2019 i don’t think your wrong. A lot of the good young pitchers in late first round or beyond in some sense end up as good or better. The scouts get it wrong sometimes to. Sometimes they don’t look at the skill set as much as they should and critique the small negatives to much. Like what kind of competition the player faces. Now and days with the new analytics to work with . Scouts can recieve a little more info and not be so conservative . What Bowden says sounds about right. donny June 3, 2019 .You have to take in to account to that some organizations do a better job at development also. donny June 3, 2019 i think Jordan Brewer and Hudson Head will be good value lower in the draft. Who ever has enough money saved or room to afford them. L.A. Red June 3, 2019 Doug – To your point about rumors circulating that some teams in the draft “will look to be working on under slot deals to save money for later in the draft.” I love it if any of the teams picking in front of the Reds do it. And i hate it if the Reds try to save money and its pretty simple why I feel this way: 1) The Reds have not been Big Spenders in FA so their best chance to add game changing premium Talent is via the Draft. So, don’t get cute taking a lesser player in hopes to sign a better lesser player later. That’s down right Just silly! 2) Its Much more obvious in the NFL but the hope is that your competitors/other teams get cute and pass on premium talent leaving you with better player(s) than originally planned if every teams was taking a BPA approach. In short This team needs TOP TIER TALENT! I hope the Reds and our new Scouting Director DON’T GET CUTE!!! DaveCT June 3, 2019 Doug, the photo in the lease of just the baseball is outstanding. In many ways captured the essence of the game. DaveCT June 3, 2019 Lead RojoBenjy June 3, 2019 Doug (and anyone else)— Who do you prefer between Vaughn and Abrams? Not that the #7 pick would have to worry. Only curious. redwolf June 3, 2019 Vaughn… he will hit…. Doug Gray June 3, 2019 Vaughn by a small amount. donny June 3, 2019 I am not disagreeing what scouts think or evaluate. I know scouts judge in that matter based on age. It’s all over every website you read. That was never the discussion or what i disagreed with. There just is no proof that the majority of high school players are underclassmen or that the majority of players / pitchers are underclassmen facing Bety. The disagreement came on the amount of underclassmen pitchers that face him. The majority are going to be upperclassmen. Just go ahead and delete Doug. I won’t lose any sleep over it. donny June 3, 2019 As of now Bety is 19 he won’t turn 20 until November 13 which would be the following next school term. Just throwing that out there. Cguy June 3, 2019 My nephew pitched in last weekends Indiana HS Regionals as a 15 year old freshman.Stands to reason he’ll pitch as an underclassman (sophmore) next year. Then possibly as a upperclassman the 2 years after that. If so, he’ll probably end up pitching just about as much as an underclassman as he will as an upperclassman. In smaller schools that may be common- if not typical. Just throwing that out there. donny June 3, 2019 Well that’s good . You should be proud of him. Congrats ! He is better than the majority. donny June 3, 2019 I would be willing to bet he is going to be even better as a upperclassmen when he gets stronger donny June 3, 2019 Is he the top two pitcher on the team ? donny June 3, 2019 A starting pitcher or a relief pitcher Cguy ? steve June 3, 2019 WOW, hope the reds are keeping a eye on him . Cguy June 3, 2019 My nephew has a low 80s fastball. He can throw it for strikes most of the time. He has a changeup , but my brother won’t let him throw a curve. The fastball overpowers most of the locals. When he got to the regionals, he found out some high school kids can hit an 80 mph fastball. He started the game. The other team had a sp who wasn’t any faster, but a little wiser. He was a sophmore. steve June 3, 2019 I agree with you donny. There is no doubt the majority of the higher velocity and better pitchers are going to be upperclassman. donny June 3, 2019 Yeah but there will be some that are talented like Cguys nephew. steve June 3, 2019 You just knew that someone was going to chime in with a story with there nephew or something didn’t you. Good for him for sure, but i understand what your saying donny. I don’t get the saltiness of you saying the majority of the starting pitchers are upperclassmen. It seems that way anyway. cinvenfan June 3, 2019 Rutschman (c) drafted #1 as expected. Mk June 3, 2019 1/2 hour in I’m sick of hearing Harold Reynolds already. mark l June 3, 2019 haha donny June 3, 2019 Seems so far MLB is right on point on there predictions . Fangraphs not so much. greg June 3, 2019 Huh? Through 7 picks, Fangraphs last mock is perfect. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-4-1-the-final-mock/ donny June 3, 2019 Well they must have changed again, because in the last draft projection they had the reds taking Shea Langeliers. MLB had the first 7 picks right also and had there picks and projection before 6-1-2019. RS June 3, 2019 I’d take Rutledge or Malone over Lodolo. Norwood Nate June 3, 2019 Well, top six went top six. Still hoping for a bat. Not Langeliers though. kevinz June 3, 2019 I want a bat as i have said all along. I will not like the reds taking a Pitcher. I hope for the best though if they go that way. Stott Corbin Henderson Baty Caruaco . Norwood Nate June 3, 2019 Welp. There it is. Hope for the best. AirborneJayJay June 3, 2019 Lodolo as expected. Following the script. Pretty boring do far. RS June 3, 2019 Well, some nice comments by Trevor Bauer in favor of Nick Lodolo. Hopefully, Bauer is right. donny June 3, 2019 i missed it. What did he say about him RS cinvenfan June 3, 2019 I’m fine with the pick. The kid looks good, a lefty starter with nasty stuff. With Derek Johnson aboard, I trust the organization to develop him properly. Brian June 3, 2019 Thoughts on 49th pick?