The draft is over, but the signing deadline hasn’t come just yet. Usually that’s when the national publications will overhaul their prospect rankings. But Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen decided that they weren’t going to wait for all of the draft picks to sign, or not sign if that’s the case. They went ahead and updated their prospect lists, both the team rankings as well as overall minor league rankings. And they included draft picks, signed at this point or not.

The top prospect in the organization now, at least on Fangraphs, is Taylor Trammell. The Chattanooga Lookouts outfielder has jumped up to the #7 prospect in all of minor league baseball. He is one of four Cincinnati Reds prospects that are still within the Top 100 prospects in the minor leagues. Trammell is joined by Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson, and Hunter Greene – all of whom are in the 60-100 range on the list. Nick Lodolo, the Reds 1st round pick this season, Tony Santillan, and Jose Siri are in the 100-200 range on the list.

When it comes to the draft picks from 2019 only Nick Lodolo and Tyler Callihan are inside the organizational Top 10 list. What’s interesting is that they are also including Cuban infielder/outfielder Michel Triana despite the fact that he hasn’t officially signed yet. Only one prospect in the organization was listed as trending up, even though a few guys did move up in the rankings. I believe the “trend” is based on their FV rating moving up or down, rather than just their overall ranking. Jose Garcia jumped into the Top 10 rankings for the organization and got listed as trending up.

Billings, AZL, and Greeneville information

The Billings Mustangs begin their season tomorrow. As of right now, which is 1:35pm ET on Thursday, no roster has been released for the Mustangs. When I get it, there will be a post talking about some of the players on the team. Billings will open up at home against Idaho Falls at 8:35pm ET. On Monday the Arizona League Reds will begin their season at 9pm ET, in a road contest against the AZL Rangers. Then on Tuesday it’s the Greeneville Reds who will round out the start of the season, hosting the Kingsport Mets on TACO TUESDAY at 6:30pm ET. As with the Billings roster, we don’t have anything for the AZL or Greeneville squads yet, but once they are available a post will go up with information on the players.

25 Responses

  1. RojoBenjy

    Any sense of why they move TT up when he’s maybe a bit stalled? Or are they taking into account his age and the league adjustments he’s having to make? Others graduating as prospects and/or injuries?

    • Doug Gray

      Because they still think that he’s an elite prospect, and a whole bunch of guys ahead of him graduated.

      • RojoBenjy

        So the national guys are still in on him. I believe in him. I think he’s more than hype. Was just wondering if they had solid reasons or whether they are still reacting to hype from last year’s futures game.

      • RojoBenjy

        @Wes

        Sorry to be unclear. I do not think he’s hype.

        What I was trying to say is that MLB was really playing up to his performance in the futures game, and that may be all that the national guys are thinking about, without doing any other real analysis.

        I really root for him. I think he’s a real ballplayer.

      • Doug Gray

        Literally no reliable place that does prospect rankings (ESPN/BA/BP/Fangraphs/MLB Pipeline) is ever reacting to “hype” from any one game scenario unless it demonstrates a clear change in skillset – which never, ever happens for hitters. For a pitcher, yes, that can happen – but it is usually going to be at the start of their season and they’ve found a lot more velo than they ever had before. And even then, it’s going to be “let’s see the next game”.

      • RojoBenjy

        Thanks for the clarification, Doug. It’s reassuring to know that others are doing it the right way also.

  2. Cguy

    Doug, assuming the Reds sign Hinds, Callihan, & Triana, what’s the major differences? Do any of those 3 significantly stand out as having better skills? Seems to me all 3 are not ss & possibly not infielders at upper MiL levels.

    • Doug Gray

      I guess I need to know more exactly what it is that you are asking. What do you mean what’s the major differences? Between the players? Why their rankings are what they are at Fangraphs? Need to be more specific to try and get a decent answer.

  3. Wes

    I don’t think my opinion of trammell has ever changed. He was a top 15 draft prospect who fell due to sign ability concerns. He’s performed the part his whole career. He’s a really good player, just not elite, not yet atleast. There’s an absurd amount of 20 year old major leaguers right now. Typically they would still be prospects and that helps with ranking so high. Congrats to him though. Happy to see him in top 10.

    • RojoBenjy

      Would be interesting to see the follow up stories on the 20 years olds that come up and make a splash in the first few weeks. Where do they end up? They can’t all be Trout and Juan Soto.

      I think I sometimes get a skewed perspective about how all the other teams have awesome 20 year olds in the majors, because the media trumps them up when they first arrive, then ignores them when they come down to earth?

      Is that actual or just my perception?

    • Big Ed

      There were only 3 MLB players on opening day rosters who were 20 years old or younger: Elvis Luciano of the Blue Jays, Juan Soto of the Nats, and Fernando Tatis, Jr. of the Padres. Vlad, Jr. has since been called up, and perhaps there has been another but I haven’t verified.

      The Reds are thus among the 90% of the teams that don’t have a 20-year-old on their MLB roster.

      All four of the players noted above are Dominican. I think you can make a strong case that the Dominican system, for whatever reason, develops players and especially hitters faster than the American system. I suspect that it has a lot to do with the soul-crushing travel ball that we subject our players to, whereas the Dominican kids can find a local park to play good competition many hours a day. They, in other words, learned to play the same way that Aaron, Mays, Rose and DiMaggio all did: in their neighborhoods.

      Trammell is fine; there is a false narrative out there that he is behind the development curve.

  4. DaveCT

    The jump to AA is often considered the most difficult. Trammell is a very elite athlete who has only been a full time baseball player for a few years (as opposed to a serious multi-sport athlete). I’m guessing Trammell will figure out AA by year’s end and will be on the cusp of the ML’s for 2020.

  5. Jonathan Linn

    I was fangraphs site was more mobile friendly. The updated prospect list wont show up on my phone

  6. Alex Reds

    The Reds prospects they traded to Dodgers are now 127 and 128 top prospects overall – Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray

      • RedsKoolAidDrinker

        Yeah personally I think those two aren’t that neck-and-neck as prospects. Seemed like most of us really hated to see JGray depart but without 20/20 at the time we also thought the trade was a big win (getting rid of Bailey for Kemp’s contract is a win). Obviously the Wood injury hurts and did anyone see this kind of start coming with Puig? He’s not a star and may never be a starter, but I have no problem with Farmer being a Red. Also, did the Reds not save a lot of money with this trade? If so, then who’s to say that the money saved wasn’t used to improve the club such as giving a new contract to SGray.

      • Keith

        Reds lead the league in runs against. It’s not hard to imagine a world in which Kemp and Puig perform at historical averages and drive the offense to be much better than it has been and the Reds are pushing to be in or near first place. I hated to lose Gray, but if you think you can jump this team from last into first, you make that trade. Numbers have been disappointing, but that happens.

  7. kevinz

    Glad Trammell still getting some Love. I believe he concentrating so Hard on Defense his Offense suffering so Far. The FSL does not Help a tough League to hit in.
    Before the season Trammell mentioned how Offense seemed Natural to him.
    He said he feels really Raw on Defense and relied more on his Speed.