Photo: Doug GrayCincinnati Reds Minor League Game Review: 7/6/19 Doug Gray July 7, 2019 31 Comments If you are interested in getting emailed every day during the season with additional game notes and a rundown on how the Cincinnati Reds Top 25 Prospects performed (along with other perks) you can sign up to support the site through Patreon and get all of that for as low as $1 a month. If that’s something that sounds interesting you can get more information here. The Louisville Bats lost 7-2. Box Score Christian Colon went 2-3 with a walk and a solo home run (7). Aristides Aquino went 1-4 with a solo home run (20). Alex Blandino went 2-3 with a walk. Rob Refsnyder went 1-4. Sherman Johnson went 1-3 with a walk. Cassidy Brown went 1-3. Alex Wood (rehab) allowed a run in 1.1 innings with a walk and 2 strikeouts. Joe Mantiply threw 1.2 shutout innings with 2 strikeouts. Joel Kuhnel threw a shutout inning with a strikeout. Tristan Archer threw a perfect inning. The Chattanooga Lookouts lost 11-4. Box Score Mitch Nay went 2-4 with a double and a run scored. Ibandel Isabel went 1-4 with a home run (21) and 2 RBI. Calten Daal went 3-4 with a run scored. Michael Beltre went 2-4 with a home run (2) and 2 RBI. Packy Naughton allowed 1 earned in 6.0 innings with 2 walks and 5 strikeouts. Tyler Jay threw a hitless inning with a strikeout. The Daytona Tortugas lost 6-1. Box Score Stuart Fairchild went 2-5 with a run scored. Jonathan India went 1-3 with a walk. Jose Garcia went 1-3 with a double, RBI, and he was hit by a pitch. Hendrik Clementina went 1-3 with a walk. Austin Orewiler allowed 3 runs in 6.0 innings with 2 walks and 2 strikeouts. The Dayton Dragons lost 1-0. Box Score Randy Ventura went 1-4. Miles Gordon went 1-4. Mariel Bautista went 1-4 with a steal (12). Pabel Manzanero went 1-4. Juan Martinez went 1-3. Lyon Richardson allowed a run in 6.0 innings with a walk and 7 strikeouts. Adrian Rodriguez threw 3.0 hitless innings with 2 walks and 3 strikeouts. The Billings Mustangs won 2-1. Box Score Quin Cotton went 2-4. Victor Ruiz went 2-2 with a double and a run scored. Left game early. Jonathan Willems went 2-4 with a double and an RBI. Eric Yang went 2-4 with an RBI. TJ Hopkins went 1-3. Nick Lodolo threw 2.1 shutout innings with 5 strikeouts. Omar Conoropo allowed a run in 5.2 innings with a walk and 5 strikeouts. Francis Peguero threw a shutout inning with a strikeout. The Greeneville Reds lost 5-3. Box Score Allan Cerda went 1-3 with a walk, steal, home run (6) and he had 2 RBI. Garrett Wolforth went 1-4 with a double. Mike Spooner went 2-3 with an RBI. Juan Manuel Abril allowed a run in 4.0 innings with 3 walks and 4 strikeouts. Tanner Cooper allowed a run in 3.0 innings with 3 strikeouts. Alec Byrd threw a shutout inning with a strikeout. The AZL Reds won 5-4. Box Score Luis Lopez went 2-5 with a double, run, and he had an RBI. Wendell Marrero went 3-4 with a double, run, and he had an RBI. Debby Santana went 2-4 with a run scored. Yan Contreras went 0-2 with 2 walks and a run scored. Jorge Sequera went 1-4 with an RBI. Elvis Gomez went 1-3 with a walk and an RBI. Rafael Franco went 1-4 with a run scored. Ryan Campbell (rehab) threw 2.0 shutout innings with as trikeout. Andres Falcon threw 4.0 perfect innings of relief with 3 strikeouts. Jake Gilbert threw a perfect inning. 7/7 Game Preview Team 1st half 2nd half Time (ET) Probable Box Score Listen Live Watch Live Louisville 33-55 N/A 2:05pm Romano Here Here Here Chattanooga 36-33 8-9 2:15pm Sanmartin Here Here Here Daytona 35-30 7-12 12:00pm Solomon Here Here N/A Dayton 28-42 6-10 2:00pm Diaz Here Here Here Billings 8-13 N/A 3:05pm Medrano Here Here N/A Greeneville 6-12 N/A 5:00pm Ashcraft Here Here N/A AZL Reds 6-10 N/A 9:00pm TBA Here N/A N/A Share this:FacebookTwitterRedditPocket 31 Responses Hanawi July 7, 2019 Guess I missed that Fairchild went back down a week ago. Reds need to figure out their outfield situation in the upper minors. Seems like a waste to keep him down at A+ when he has produced well there already and had a good start in AA. How many of the guys at AAA are in the long-term plans? Do they need to move some of these guys to make room? terry m July 7, 2019 Real nice start for Wendell Marrero with the AZL Reds !! Bill July 7, 2019 Good to see Tyler Jay have a good night…he could be a nice pickup. MK July 7, 2019 Never paid attention to Wood before last night but with his mechanics it is easy to see why he has back issues. He gets low dropping torso with help of thighs (try that a hundred times and see if your lower back doesn’t get fatigued and sore), then he kind of catapults the ball to the plate which if you did it a hundred times would fatigue the are between your shoulder blades. I’m sure this herby jrtkynmotion has helped make him successful but the thousands of pitches has taken its toll on his body. RedsKoolAidDrinker July 7, 2019 Do you know if he has had back issues before this? Would make sense if he’ has. MK July 7, 2019 I know he had strnum rib cage issues which could be tied together. Jim July 7, 2019 Lot of losing seasons in last 20 yrs from parent team. Lot of bad draft picks since Votto-Bruce draft until recently, and I don’t have as much hope on Greene, Trammel, Tony S and India as others do. Looking at the records of our minors doesn’t leave me with much hope. I was looking at Futures players and it seems the Reds cant draft after 2 rounds, not saying they really draft great in rds 1-2 either. Congrats to Gray making All Star team! Who bribed someone to get him on the team. 5-5 record with mid 3 ERA. RedsKoolAidDrinker July 7, 2019 I have to totally disagree with you on Trammel but I can see where you’d come to that conclusion with the others. Greene, however will still have plenty of time to fulfill his promise. The intangibles are certainly there and even if he loses ticks of his velocity is still way above average. Norwood Nate July 7, 2019 The farm system hasn’t had a great year. There’s no real dispute there. I do think it’s fair to point out that no team in baseball does well drafting after the first two rounds. I just looked up a study (2017) from SABR on players making the majors based on draft position. According to that study about two-thirds (66.7%) of players in the 1st or supplemental 1st round make the majors. Only 46.8% of those players play for 3 seasons. In the 2nd round and supplemental 2nd round less than half (49.4%) of those players make the majors and only 31.5% of those players play for 3 seasons. It drops off from there, only 39.7% of 3rd rounders make the majors, only 35% of 4th rounders and so on. The percentages for all rounds get worse if those players are drafted out of HS (Only about 27% of 1st round HS players make the majors, only about 20% HS 2nd round players make the majors etc). The Reds don’t have a ton of homegrown talent on their team. By my count it’s Barnhart, Votto, Winker, Ervin, Senzel, Mahle, Garrett, Herget, Lorenzen, and Stephenson. Of those guys Barnhart (10th), Mahle (7th), and Herget (6th) and Garrett (22nd) were drafted after the first two rounds, with Votto being the only non-1st rounder. So 40% of the active roster was homegrown. And 40% of those players were drafted after the first 2 rounds. If I had to guess that’s probably roughly in line with other clubs. In fact, since the Bruce-Votto draft (up to 2014 because after that those guys are still largely working their way through the minors) 12 of the 16 Reds first round draft picks (75%) have made the majors. So the Reds are ahead of the curve when drafting in the first round. 11 of those guys have or are playing in their 3rd MLB season, with Blandino being the one exception. All in all, I don’t think the Reds do a poor job at drafting guys, it’s just really hard to make the majors. MK July 7, 2019 Need to add Peralta to that homegrown list. Norwood Nate July 7, 2019 He’s not on active roster, and I believe he was an international signing not a draft pick. But he is homegrown. wes July 7, 2019 Reds have put the most talented team on the field this year than many years prior and they did it through trades of the farm you hate on so much. They are 4 1/2 games out of first a day before the all star break after a terrible start to the season. I am just grateful the team is in it. Been a long time since we can realistically root for playoffs in July. Cguy July 7, 2019 Reds traded in the offseason: Tanner Rainey (unranked by Doug last year). He has been promoted to ML by the Nats & has pitched 19 innings in relief with 6 holds. Shed Long (ranked #7 by Doug last year). He also has been promoted to ML by Seattle with 69 AB. Jeter Downs (ranked #9 by Doug last year). He’s currently ranked #7 prospect in the Dodgers organization. Josiah Gray (ranked #14 by Doug last year). He’s currently prospect #17 in the Dodgers organization. For those 4 plus a CBA pick Reds received: Sonny Gray, Yaisel Puig, Tanner Roark, Kyle Farmer, & Alex Wood. Other baseball teams valued mostly midlevel prospects in the Reds system & so far,they’ve been right. On the other hand, Reds have transformed their team into contention without trading away any of their best prospects. Somebody has been doing something right, it seems. Greenfield Red July 7, 2019 The World Series started in 1903 give or take a couple of years. The Reds, 1 of 30+- teams in MLB have won is 5 times. That puts them ahead of the curve. Three of those wins are in my lifetime as a fan. Again, ahead of the curve. I wished the last couple of years for them to do worse… in order to collect higher draft picks. Now there are some signs they are close to competing for a World Series… and some other signs that maybe they are not. That’s the way it will be as a fan of the Cincinnati Reds or Cleveland Indians, or Minnesota Twins ect. If a fan needs more winning perhaps the Yankees or Dodgers with all their money would be a better way to go. The best hope is to catch lighting in a bottle as Kansas City did a couple of years ago… and really the Reds did in 1990. This is not necessarily a shot at you Jim. Ryan July 7, 2019 The season isnt over yet. The top guys havent been great but none of them have been overwhelmed and demoted. Still time for these guys to get hot and have decent seasons. They hit a rough patch in the early 2010’s but starting in 2015 they stared to get back on the right foot. One thing going for the team, is that even with lots of potential free agents, they have a solid core. Another is they should have some cash to after another Roark type trade and/or a Micheal Brantley to throw in RF. Kap July 7, 2019 Three things that I’ve noticed lately in the lower minors: 1. Wendell Marrero has been on fire to start his career 2. Quin cotton has been almost as impressive and should be in Dayton with lodolo to end the season out 3. Is hinds ok? Norwood Nate July 7, 2019 Another good night by Packy. Dropped that ERA under 3.00, and probably could have gone further into the game without the errors that led to extra pitches (and unearned runs). Even better night by Richardson. He’s improved throughout the season, it’s good to see. Lodolo with another good outing, but I wish it was not against rookie league guys. I’d like to see him challenged a bit more. Maybe soon he’ll be on his way to Dayton to finish out the year. Cotton has gotten off to a hot start. Cerda has played well too, and it seems the kid has real pop in his bat. Lots of guys with AZL swinging hot bats too. Marrero the 11th round pick this season is playing well. Definitely some intriguing young OF’ers in rookie ball. Champ Summers July 7, 2019 Before 2019 Lododo’s innings topped out about 78. He had 103 this year so I’d imagine he’s approaching his max. He’s been going strong since mid February. It will be interesting to see what management feels he needs to accomplish in 2019. Does he just hit his max in Billings then skip Dayton all together next spring? That would not surprise me. It feels like they are just taking him for a test drive right now, getting a feel for who he is in a low key environment. Norwood Nate July 7, 2019 That’s a fair point. I wasn’t aware of his previous innings. I’d still think somewhere in the 120-130 innings pitched would be fine, as most pitchers can add 40-50 innings. I’d still like to see the remaining innings in Dayton. I just don’t think there’s much challenge for Lodolo at Billings. MK July 7, 2019 I hope he doesn’t skip a level as the guys who have in the past have had some deficiencies along the way. If you look at Alf-Rod, Trahan, Herget and a few others skipping a level did not help or speed up their development. Fairbanks and Friedl and even India who got a partial season in Dayton struggled mightily initially at next level. Maybe there is a former Reds prospect or player who flourished by skipping a level but I really can’t think of one. Doug Gray July 7, 2019 Tony Cingrani destroyed the minor leagues while skipping levels. Luis Castillo skipped Triple-A and he’s done fine. Yonder Alonso skipped levels and did just fine. So did Yasmani Grandal. Everyone is different. Colorado Red July 7, 2019 Hopefully Alex is fine (no back issues) after his outing. Hopefully, he can go more next time. A healthy Alex is like a major pick up, at the deadline. RedsKoolAidDrinker July 7, 2019 To those “The Sky is Falling” posters because of the minor league records for the day, there is a lot to be optimistic about (ok, maybe not at the top of the prospect list). Just off the top of my head you’ve got Naughton, Moss, Cerda, Aquino, Garcia, Richardson, Van Meter, and my favorite— Mitch Nay. Anyone who is close to writing Trammel off as an elite prospect doesn’t understand the context of development. I understand that there’s a place for winning, but would you rather the Reds draft all college seniors and pick up nothing but AAAA players for all of their rosters? If they did that the records would be much better and we’d have the worst farm system in the league. Tony Cloninger July 7, 2019 We know the W-L in the end is irrelevant. The development of pitching is non existent. They have staffs that look like the 1930 Philadelphia Phillies all over the place. Can anyone here pitch at all? Not enough to help so really reading any possible offensive talent. Not all of it but at least half of it to go get pitching from other teams seems to be the only option at this time to help the major league team. All I care about is how are the ML going to help the parent club win. The numbers at each level though are pretty bad. Not wins and losses but the stats. Regular and advanced stats. Greenfield Red July 7, 2019 Gotta disagree. There are some pretty amazing stats throughout the organization… especially at AAA. If that’s what you base the negativity on, I think you are incorrect. Tony Cloninger July 8, 2019 Amazing stats for pitching? Are we on the same page here? Pitching. kevinz July 7, 2019 Nice to see the HR by Beltre. Hope he gets everyday playing time at some Point. That his 2nd homer in last 4 games he has played in. I get he is My Binky. I just feel like more upside in there for him. Now he is just hitting as a lefty hopefully that helps him Bloom even Farther. kevinz July 7, 2019 I am at the Point where Senzel needs to Play 2nd base. CF to risky for me with him. I get CF gives him more Value as a Player. Being on the Field the main thing though. I understand he can get hurt at any Position. CF more risky especially with the lack of experience he has in the OF in General. Greg July 7, 2019 Doug, What kind of future does Aquino have with the big club? I know last year was a down year for him, but the power is clearly there. How does he project with the defense? Doug Gray July 7, 2019 He’s got a big arm, but his defense isn’t that good. He’s not terrible, but he doesn’t stand out, either. Power is legit. RojoBenjy July 7, 2019 Herget getting fed to the wolves.