The last time that we updated the Cincinnati Reds Top 25 Prospect list was on June 20th. That was six weeks ago. All of the draft picks have now seen time on the field, with only one exception. That data is useful. But what’s changed the rankings a bit more is what happened earlier this week with the trade deadline moves for the Reds. They moved their top rated prospect at the time, Taylor Trammell. They also moved left-handed pitcher Scott Moss in that deal, though he was unranked at the time – he had an argument to be included today if he were still around. They also added a new prospect from Oakland, picking up Jameson Hannah. With all of that said, you can see the last update here.

Not every player is going to get a new write up. Some of them will, though, explaining the movement , or if they are a new addition to the list.

1. Hunter Greene | Right-Handed Pitcher | Injured List

Out for the season after having Tommy John surgery in April.

2. Nick Lodolo | Left-Handed Pitcher | Dayton Dragons

When the list was updated in June, Nick Lodolo had not yet taken the mound. In the time since he’s taken the mound and then been shut down for the rest of the season. He’s healthy, but after a long college season and some professional innings on top of that, the Reds are calling 2019 a success and looking forward to 2020 for the prized lefty.

In his time on the mound between Billings and Dayton, he posted a 2.45 ERA in 18.1 innings with 1 home run allowed, no walks, 1 hit batter, and he struck out 30 of the 74 hitters he faced.

3. Tony Santillan | Right-Handed Pitcher | Chattanooga Lookouts

4. Jonathan India | Third Base | Chattanooga Lookouts

5. Tyler Stephenson | Catcher | Chattanooga Lookouts

6. Jose Garcia | Shortstop | Daytona Tortugas

He continues to show improvements at the plate in 2019. In 80 games played he’s smacked 27 doubles, a triple, and 5 home runs. That’s come in a pitching friendly league, and he’s done so while cutting down his strikeouts slightly and improving his walk rate.

7. Jose Siri | Outfielder | Chattanooga Lookouts

8. Michael Siani | Outfielder | Dayton Dragons

After a tough start to the season he’s turned things around. In his last 55 games he’s hitting .307/.377/.392 with 21 walks and 38 strikeouts in 240 plate appearances. He’s also stolen 32 bases on the season. Oh, and made defensive plays like this on what feels like an almost daily basis.

 

9. Stuart Fairchild | Outfielder | Chattanooga Lookouts

10. Rece Hinds | Second/Third Base | Greeneville Reds

He’s played in just three games this season, all in June, and has been out with an injury since then. While it’s kept him out for five weeks now, he’s remained with the team and has been participating in some on-field work before games.

11. Tyler Callihan | Second/Third Base | Greeneville Reds

12. Mariel Bautista | Outfielder | Dayton Dragons

13. Joel Kuhnel | Right-Handed Pitcher | Louisville Bats

The day after the last update saw the Reds promote Joel Kuhnel to Triple-A Louisville. He’s not skipped a beat with the promotion, posting a 1.84 ERA in 14.2 innings with 17 strikeouts since getting bumped up. The stuff is still outstanding and the performance in Triple-A has him up a few more spots.

14. Lyon Richardson | Right-Handed Pitcher | Dayton Dragons

15. Vladimir Gutierrez | Right-Handed Pitcher | Louisville Bats

16. Aristides Aquino | Outfielder | Cincinnati Reds

17. TJ Friedl | Outfielder | Chattanooga Lookouts

His season came to an end in July after undergoing surgery on his ankle.

18. Miguel Hernandez | Shortstop | Dayton Dragons

19. Jameson Hannah | Outfielder | Daytona Tortugas

Acquired from the Oakland Athletics at the trade deadline, Jameson Hannah hasn’t played a game in the Reds organization as I type this. In the hitting friendly California League with Stockton he hit .283/.341/.381 with 25 doubles, 3 triples, and 2 home runs. His walk rate isn’t that good. Neither is his strikeout rate if we also consider the power that’s coming with it.

There are some tools to like, here, though. He’s a center fielder and that defensive value matters. He’s got plus speed, though he must learn to use it better on the bases where he’s been caught stealing more this season than he’s had successful stolen base attempts. And his bat speed stands out. There’s raw power in there that he hasn’t tapped into yet, too. But he’s also a guy who hits ground balls at a very high rate and it might take a swing overhaul in order to tap into that raw power because you won’t find it by hitting ground balls all day. The raw ability is there at the plate, but there’s work to be done to get it.

20. Jimmy Herget | Right-Handed Pitcher | Louisville Bats

21. Juan Martinez | Third Base | Dayton Dragons

22. Andy Sugilio | Outfielder | Daytona Tortugas

Since the last update we’ve seen Andy Sugilio give up switch hitting. He’s now only hitting from the left side of the plate. After posting a .594 OPS in April, he’s hit .311/.339/.396. Like Jameson Hannah, he’s got raw tools to work with both at the plate and in the field. But at the plate he’s another very high ground ball rate hitter who may need to change his swing a little bit to get the ball in the air more if he’s ever going to tap into the raw power he shows.

23. Ryan Hendrix | Right-Handed Pitcher | Chattanooga Lookouts

He hit the injured list with an elbow injury at the very end of April. In the last week he’s began a rehab assignment with the Arizona League Reds and has dominated against the rookie-level hitters.

24. Keury Mella | Right-Handed Pitcher | Louisville Bats

25. Mitch Nay | Third/First Base | Louisville Bats

A new addition to the list, Mitch Nay tore up the Double-A Southern League before earning a promotion to Triple-A Louisville two weeks ago. He was at or near the top of the leaderboards in the Southern League after hitting .304/.366/.561 in 82 games with Chattanooga. The 25-year-old is having a break out season after losing nearly two full seasons with health issues related to a staph infection in his knee.

Players who exited the list

While he may show up on some other midseason prospect lists, Josh VanMeter has graduated his prospect list eligibility. The general rule for eligibility is to be eligible for the following seasons Rookie of the Year award. For hitters that means less than 130 at-bats in the Major Leagues. For pitchers that means less than 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues. But there’s also the rule of 45 days on the active 25-man roster. Usually guys with that much time on the roster go beyond the 130 at-bats or 50 innings threshold, but not always. For now, that’s where Josh VanMeter falls. Publications that don’t follow the 45-day rule will have him included (Baseball America, for example, ranks him 12th). He’s beyond the 45 day rule, though, and thus isn’t included in our update. Taylor Trammell is no longer in the organization and thus is off of the list.

The Cincinnati Reds Top 25 Prospect List

For an easier comparison look, here’s the entire Top 25 in a list format:

Rank Player Pos Level
1 Hunter Greene RHP A+/IL
2 Nick Lodolo LHP A
3 Tony Santillan RHP AA
4 Jonathan India 3B AA
5 Tyler Stephenson C AA
6 Jose Garcia SS A+
7 Jose Siri OF AA
8 Michael Siani OF A
9 Stuart Fairchild OF AA
10 Rece Hinds SS/3B GRN
11 Tyler Callihan 2B/3B GRN
12 Mariel Bautista OF A
13 Joel Kuhnel RHP AAA
14 Lyon Richardson RHP A
15 Vladimir Gutierrez RHP AAA
16 Aristides Aquino OF MLB
17 TJ Friedl OF AA/IL
18 Miguel Hernandez SS A
19 Jameson Hannah OF A+
20 Jimmy Herget RHP AAA
21 Juan Martinez 3B A
22 Andy Sugilio OF A+
23 Ryan Hendrix RHP AA/IL
24 Keury Mella RHP AAA
25 Mitch Nay 3B AAA

42 Responses

  1. Oldtimer

    Good list. Interesting that highest ranked AAA prospect is only #13 on list. Reds better MiLB prospects are 2-3 years away from MLB in most cases.

    • FP

      I think I’ve seen somewhere the Reds are (at least trying to) treat the AAA team as a “reserves” team for the major league squad, while ‘Nooga is to be treated as more of a “development” team for higher-rated prospects. So I’d expect a lot of the top guys to spend a lot of time in AA before a short stint (if any at all) in AAA before coming up to Cincy.

  2. Kevin miller

    HI Doug,
    Love your site and the work you do over at Redelgnation. My question is about Jameson Hannah. When we first acquired him I went to do some research and saw him ranked as high 6th and no lower than 9th in the A’s farm system. Are you just really down on him or is it that the Reds have a much deeper system than the A’s?

    • Punisher

      Hannah seems low on this list but he clearly has warts. He was barely average in the best league for offense. If he is not better than Fairchild or Friedl then the reds didn’t get much value.

      Santillan is still third? He has been very disappointing.

      • Kevin miller

        I wasn’t expecting much in a Roark deal but when I saw we got a club’s top 10 prospect it got me a little excited.

    • Doug Gray

      I’m clearly the low guy when it comes to Hannah. My biggest thing with the other places is that the tools grades seem to be the same as what I’ve heard on them, which isn’t unsurprising. We all talk to the same people for the most part. My issue is that it’s hard to see him find that raw power if he’s going to hit the ball on the ground so much. What’s the difference between him and Andy Sugilio, for example? Sugilio’s significantly faster, and is hitting better this season in a far tougher league to hit in, but is a year older. Power ceiling? Probably in favor of Sugilio, honestly. But both guys hit ground balls like they have to do push ups if they put the ball in the air and get nothing out of that raw power. The way I see it, with both of them, and a guy like Michael Beltre, too – the raw power is great to have, but for whatever reason their swings don’t allow them to get to it at all. When that’s the case, I’m just not a buyer that it’s going to come. It’s not like they are 18 and have that raw power and will grow into it some more with added strength. Their problem is that they can’t and or don’t hit the ball in the air.

      • Punisher

        Maybe we have an instructor who changes the launch angle.

      • Doug Gray

        Maybe we do. But until it starts happening that’s all just hopes and wishes.

  3. Cguy

    I’m very OK with adding Nay. No doubt if Moss had not been traded, he’d have got that spot.

    • Doug Gray

      I mean, there’s some doubt. I might have still gone with Nay.

  4. AirborneJayJay

    Interesting. Good work. No Packy? Bold move to have Hunter Greene #1 as he probably won’t see a mound until next July.
    I think Lodolo would warrant being #1. I think Siani at #2 is a valid pick. India could slot in at #3. Greene at #4. TStephenson right there at #5. Santillan at #6. Garcia at #7. Kuhnel at #8. Richardson at #9. Aquino at #10. Fairchild at #11. Siri at #12.
    Moving away from Gutierrez and Mella. The system really has some pronounced tiers. 1 through 5 are the first tier. 6 through 8 is a tier. 9 through 12 a tier and then it drops off afterwards.
    If some of these guys don’t have a rebound in August it could further jumbleup the next rankings.

  5. jbonireland

    I was also surprised about Packy Naughton. What do you see as the downside Doug? Boy has this list changed in the last month. Looks like most prospects are 3-4 years away. Johnathon India has been in the organization for about a year now, I’m not seeing much that indicates he should have been a first round draft choice. My first thought when they drafted him ught oh, Branden Larson. Hope I’m wrong.

    • Jonathan Linn

      @ jbonireland – what would you want to see from India??

    • Doug Gray

      His downside is a guy who isn’t a #5 starter, and not good enough stuff to be a big league reliever. And that is kind of the concern. That he’s got enough stuff to start in the minors, but it’s not enough to play in any regular role in the majors as a starter or reliever. You hope that he can make it play, but he’s one of those guys that’s on the fringes with stuff and he’s going to have to prove it at every level. So far he’s in his career he’s absolutely done that.

  6. Ryan

    Tony Santillan at #3 is typo, no? 1.6 whip, GB rate under 40%, nearly 7 era in last 10 starts(not like it was just a bad start), all while sporting a too good to be true hr/fb rate.

    • Doug Gray

      Development isn’t linear. Santillan’s got better stuff than just about anyone in the organization. He’s been dealing with a few injuries here and there throughout the season – nothing serious, but enough to put him on the IL multiple times.

      His stock is down on the year. But so is almost everyone else in the organization, too.

      • Ryan

        I get that, but he’s had a really rough year. Tyler Stephenson is holding his own. Jonathan India is struggling in AA but he’s still got a ways to go before its on the same level as Santillan. I will say I was really happy to see Tony come back from his triceps injury, and rather quickly at that.
        I think he’s a 45+ FV type right now. Ty Stephenson and India are 50’s, Greene and Lodolo 55’s.

        I think Mauriel Bautista is most underrated and I would have him #5 with 45/50 FV with major breakout potential for next season.

        I apologize for being negative as I really do enjoy this site and these post in particular. On the other hand, I am probably a little higher on the Farm system than most, though the pitching side could really use a nice bounce back from Santillan.

  7. John C.

    More of a question than a statement. We know Hannah comes from a hitter’s league. What makes it a hitter’s league? Smaller parks, the ball flies further or inferior pitchers? If Hannah is a ground ball hitter, is he taking advantage of friendly parks? Maybe he is a better hitter than thought because the league doesn’t help him as much as others.

    • Doug Gray

      The league certainly doesn’t help him as much as others because it’s a hitters park because multiple parks in the league are at high elevation, so the ball flies.

      But, he’s not really a better hitter than he looks right now. It’s not like he’s making tons of contact and hitting it at people. His strikeout rate isn’t exactly good. It’s really poor for a guy with 2 home runs on August 2nd.

  8. SteveO

    Packy and Narciso. Reds should sign Gohara to a minor league deal

    • SteveO

      Ramirez from the Indians to a minor league deal too. Get rid of Stout.

  9. Norwood Nate

    Appreciate your work on the rankings. I tend to hold them as the gold standard of Reds prospect rankings.

    I probably rank the top 8:
    Lodolo, India, Greene, Stephenson, Santillan, Siri, Garcia, Siani.
    Beyond that I am less sure. It’s more tier based. The first 8 are tier 1 and 1A. In the next group I’d probably have Callihan, Richardson,Fairchild, Bautista, and Hinds. In tier three I’d have Aquino, Nay, Gutierrez, Kuhnel, Herget, Friedl, and Naughton.
    I’d finish it out with Hendrix, Sugilio, Hannah, Crook, and Hernandez.

  10. kevinz

    Top 10. system weak in Pitching plus Power hitting so that i how Ranked it.

    Lodolo
    Greene
    Aquino
    Crook
    Santillan
    Stephenson
    India
    Garcia
    Fairchild
    Siani

  11. citizen54

    Surprised Stephenson isn’t higher. He has a 125 wRC+ and not striking out much as a catcher in AA. Is his defense holding him back?

    • Doug Gray

      I’d like to see a little more in-game power before pushing him higher. I definitely like his game. He’s a Top 150 prospect in baseball in my mind.

  12. Alan

    Doug, where do you think you’d have put Josiah Gray if he were still in the organization?

    • Doug Gray

      Not sure since I don’t have many reports/looks at him this season. Top 10 for sure, but not top 5 for sure.

  13. Stock

    VanMeter sure is glad you have a new list. Having him ranked 15 or whatever he was did not make sense. Winker with more speed, more power and more defensive versatility.

    I am pretty sure Winker never fell out of the top 5.

    • Doug Gray

      If I were to re-rank today, he’s be in the top 10. About three weeks ago I was in Dayton and talked with some scouts who cover the Reds organization for their teams and they had some good things to say about VanMeter. One dropped a Scooter Gennett comp on him.

      That said, the Winker/VanMeter thing isn’t one-to-one. Winker hit everywhere, from day 1. And he was in the Majors at a younger age than VanMeter, too.

      • kevinz

        Winker did outperform Meter the whole way through the MiLB.
        Winker in 2 weeks will be 26 debuted at 24 in the Bigs.
        Meter debuted this year at 24 so made at to the reds at the same age.
        Plus Meter thought missed a year to torn Acl i believe?

  14. Troy

    Is Medrano anywhere close to the top 25 for you? Any thoughts on him?

    • Doug Gray

      He’s on my radar. I’m intrigued. He was supposed to start on Saturday, but no longer is the probable. Maybe they are going to let him pitch in the All-Star game on Tuesday. But pure speculation here – maybe he’ll head to Dayton and take over the spot vacated by Lodolo in the rotation.

      The last report I got on him was in June – I don’t have it in front of me, so I can’t recall if it was his 1st or 2nd start of the year. It was solid, but didn’t jump off of the page. He wasn’t the guy that I have heard of as being “the guy” from that rotation – even before Lodolo was there. That doesn’t always mean anything, though.

  15. Cguy

    Impressive demonstration of bunting skills by Alex Wood tonight. He was pretty good on the mound as well.

    • Earmbrister

      I was impressed by Wood as well, including the bunting. Hopefully the Reds can extend him for a couple of years.

      • Cguy

        If they can’t sign him, I’m still hoping they extend him a QO. I don’t look at it as just paying Wood $18-19MM. To me it’s keeping possibly the best rotation in the NL intact for 2020 at a cost of between $49-55MM . Gray @ $10.17MM, Castillo @ (prearb) $600K?, DeSclafani (arb3) @ $4-6MM?, Bauer (arb3) @ $16-19MM?, & Wood with QO @ $18-19MM. The Reds can afford that next year.

  16. Tom

    With how Aquino whiplashed from top 10 to not ranked to replacing Puig in CF, we can realistically hope for Santillan to end up starting for Cincy by 2021.

  17. DocBB

    Thanks Doug. I like how high you have Siri. Kid has all the tools but just hasn’t put it all together yet for a full year. Is that your thoughts as well? TIA

  18. Joey Votto Needs More RBI's

    With a minor league system this bad we should be doing better than struggling to get to .500. Not sure what the front office is doing anymore.