At least once a month I’ll reach out to those who support the site via Patreon for questions that they’d like to have answered in the mailbag. It’s just one of several perks that they get for their support (you can get more details here if you’re interested) of the site. This time around we got a whole lot of questions, so go grab a drink, and maybe a snack.

Second base has been a position in flux this year. However, it seems a natural fit for Nick Senzel. Was he good enough at second to fill that spot and loosen logjam in the outfield?

This is an interesting question and one that I’ve pondered a lot in the last couple of months. First let me get it out of the way: Nick Senzel is an excellent defender at second base and would fill that spot very well.

But the question revolves around clearing a log jam in the outfield. And that’s where things get interesting. The log jam in the outfield is in the corners, not in center. Nick Senzel moving out of center doesn’t clear anything. In fact, right now, it makes the problem worse. Josh VanMeter can play second base, too. But if he’s not at second, and he wouldn’t be if Senzel slides to that position, then you’ve got him, Winker, Ervin, Aquino, Dietrich all vying for time in the corners. And you still don’t have a center fielder. The team has shown they will put Winker or Ervin in center every so often. But I refuse to believe anyone on this roster would be put out there every day next year unless that were Nick Senzel.

But, what having the option of being able to move Nick Senzel to second base does do, is give you options. The Reds need to improve their roster still. Whether it’s in free agency or via trade, they can look at center fielders. And they can look at middle infield options. That’s what Senzel’s versatility does in this situation. It gives the Reds options. But I don’t think him moving to second base clears up any log jam in the outfield, though. He’s not blocking anyone out there right now and moving doesn’t open up a spot among the group of guys trying to find at-bats.

Any news on Nick Hanson? I know he has battled injuries since he was drafted, but he had a brief 3 appearance cameo last season, but nothing since.

He was injured again. His rehab process is coming along, but I spoke with someone about him last week, and while things are coming along and going well, he’s not yet throwing off of a mound. Don’t expect to see him this season.

Loved the notes on Brandon Finnegan; what do you think the Reds need to see from him for him to be ready to GABP at some point, and please remind us of his status – does he need to be added to the 40 man next winter to keep him from becoming a FA (or is it just to avoid Rule 5 at this point)?

He will be Rule 5 draft eligible is he’s not added to the roster this offseason. As for what they will need to see, that’s a good question. I can’t speak for anyone in the Reds front office, but I’ll offer up what I would need to see: Consistency with the velocity and the stuff the rest of this season. There’s only three weeks left in the minor league season, so there’s not exactly a lot of time remaining this year.

Here’s where I’m going to get inside the front offices head, sort of. Since he does need to be added to the 40-man to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft, IF they plan to keep him around and add him, then I would have discussions about adding him for September and giving the team an option to use him as a lefty out of the bullpen down the stretch. I don’t know where they sit on this, and at this point they may not either. But that’s what my line of thinking would be if I were in such a position to be planning for the future.

If Tyler Stephenson just won the managers-voted award for best defensive C in his league, does that mean that he has improved enough that there are no longer any questions about whether he can remain behind the plate?

No, it doesn’t necessarily mean that. Let me first be certain to point out that this is not me condemning Tyler Stephenson’s defense at all. But, I think about how often Gold Glove Awards used to go to guys who could hit rather than to guys who could field, and often times in these kinds of votes, I see guys who can hit and who are prospects get the nod over guys who are clearly better defenders. I do not know if this is the case or not for Tyler Stephenson – I simply haven’t seen enough of the rest of the Southern League’s catchers.

With all of that said, I’ll chime in with this: I’ve always felt that he could stick at catcher. The tools and athleticism were always there. He needed to work on the skills side of things. Short of your absolute inner-circle hall of famer type defenders, that’s true for just about all catchers in their early 20’s. What I have seen over the last few years is Stephenson making strides in all areas behind the plate. His time missed due to injuries simply cost him reps that he (and all players) need to continue to develop. He’s gotten those the last two seasons and you’ve been able to see the improvements come.

At his size, though, there are always going to be some who say he’s got to move to another position. I haven’t checked in the last year or so, but when I last did, he was at a height that matched the other tallest catchers ever. And eventually, maybe they are right. But I don’t think it’ll be because of his height. It’ll probably be because he’ll have hit well enough that you want to keep his bat in the lineup more and catching in the long run doesn’t usually allow that to happen.

What are the chances the Reds try Jonathan India at SS again? It seems that they could do so now without displacing a prospect that they want to develop.

I don’t think it’s going to be something that look at much. They gave him a few looks there last season. He’s not really a shortstop, and while he could play there in an emergency, it’s not something that is likely to happen on a daily basis. From those I’ve talked to within the organization, it doesn’t seem that there’s much belief that he’s an every day kind of guy there. They have dabbled, briefly, with him at second base. More people seem to believe that could be a future option for him, though.

With so many pre-arb contracts on the team and really only Joey Votto and Trevor Bauer costing much at all, why not slightly overpay Alex Wood? Maybe 3 years $60MM. Anthony DeSclafani would be your 5th, Tyler Mahle could cover injuries and replace DeSclfani when he leaves as a free agent next year.

Soon enough those pre-arb guys are going to start making plenty of money. And that third year of Wood is going to be on a team with plenty of guys making not-pre-arb money. That said, I don’t know that it’s a real bad idea to do it. Alex Wood has proven to be a real good pitcher over his career. What a team shouldn’t do is expect him to be their #1 because he’s also proven he can’t be counted on for 175+ innings a year. Is that worth 3-years and $60M? I’m not sure, but I think I could make the argument both ways.

The Reds haven’t shown much propensity to develop starting pitchers too often. While things seem to be changing a bit in how guys are developing in the Majors, it seems that for at least the short-term future, the Reds will need to continue to get starting pitching from outside of the organization. It’s tough to see them getting a free agent out there better than Alex Wood to sign. Trades are always an option, which has been the Reds way of late – but money only takes money. Trades take talent and money. If it’s there, the offer you tossed out there isn’t terrible.

With AAA using the MLB baseball, how are the Reds and other teams adjusting to evaluate talent? It seems like most everyday players are setting career best records. 

I can’t speak to how all of the Reds employees/scouts/front office members are adjusting to the evaluation process – I haven’t talked to all of them. But I have talked with a few about it. Earlier this season one of them noted, and I am paraphrasing here because it was just an informal talk we were having about baseball in general “it’s different, but it’s the same ball they’ll get to hit in the Major Leagues, too.” A different one noted that it’s clearly making a difference, but how to adjust is merely a guess.

Baseball America also just recently had an article on this very topic. It’s a free read, so you can check it out here.

For me, I’m doing some mental adjustments. Is everyone hitting for more power? Yes. But the top guys are still doing it more than other guys. Josh VanMeter slugged .669 in Triple-A this year. Aristides Aquino slugged .636 in Triple-A this year. Other guys are hitting for more power. Those guys were obliterating the baseball. There’s a difference. But I’m also looking at the home run distances, too. The baseball is traveling further. But when you’re hitting it 400+ feet consistently, that’s power and not the baseball. Sure, if they go back to the old baseball, that’s going to drop a little bit, but that’s still real power that will play.

Arizona Fall League candidates for me are Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson, Mitch Nay, Jose Siri, Ryan Hendrix, and Joel Kuhnel. Additions or subtractions for you?

Subtract Siri – he can and almost assuredly will play every day in the Dominican Winter League. Subtract Nay, maybe. If they aren’t going to add him to the 40-man, he’ll be a free agent in the middle of the AFL season. Making up for missing much of the spring and the first few weeks of the season would be nice – but only if he’s going to be in the organization next year, too. I’d also subtract Kuhnel – I’m not sure what benefit there is in extending his season.

Add a guy like Chadwick Tromp, who could use the additional at-bats after missing nearly 4 months this season. I really like Hendrix out there getting some more innings in. I’d consider getting Jose Garcia on the roster, perhaps.

What ever happened to the knuckleball? Does anyone today throw a knuckleball? I haven’t heard about anyone throwing a screwball either for a long time.

There’s at least one guy in the minors still throwing it. Louisville faced him earlier this year, but I can’t remember who it was. With that said, I think there’s a reason we see it less than ever before. I’m just talking out of my butt here, but the knuckleball used to be a last-ditch effort for guys who simply didn’t have it anymore. Now when you get to that point in your career you go to Driveline or somewhere similar and train to find more velocity. I don’t know if anyone is out there throwing a true screwball these days.

What do you think of Keury Mella’s hitting ability? Does he hit well enough to be an occasional pinch hit at the major league level as a primary relief pitcher? 

Keury Mella definitely doesn’t get cheated at the plate. He swings like a position guy. And there’s a little bit of pop there, too. But the answer to the question of “can a pitcher hit Major League pitching enough to be better than the position guys on the bench” is almost always no. Especially today when teams don’t really carry “glove only” guys like Rey Ordonez, who in the middle of the PED era couldn’t OPS .600.

Can you give us an update on Tyler Jay and on his potential moving forward?

Since joining the Reds organization earlier this summer he’s been in Double-A. He’s thrown 19.1 innings, allowed 19 hits, 1 home run, walked 6 batters, and he’s struck out 23. His ERA sits at 3.72 in those 12 games. Before joining the organization this year he was pitching for Pensacola, which is in the same league, and now the Twins Double-A affiliate. His ERA was 4.82 in 28.0 innings with 19 walks and 27 strikeouts. The strikeout rate with the Reds is up significantly. He’s striking out 28.4% of the hitters he’s face with the Lookouts. With Pensacola that was only 19.2%. But hit walk rate has almost been halved, too. And that’s even more important.

I haven’t had a chance to see him pitch in person since last season. And that was just a random coincidence as he pitched in a game that I was at, and really was paying more attention to the Reds players at the time than what he was doing on the mound. With video, since Chattanooga is the only Double-A team without video, my looks have been limited there, too. I will say this much: Someone I spoke with the other day in the organization was talking about how they had really liked what they had been seeing from him. So if nothing else, he’s got people’s attention.

Looking at the stats only, he’s a guy who, at least right now, is missing a lot of bats, not walking many guys, and has a solid-to-very good ground ball rate. Those guys are ones to keep an eye on. Scouting wise, he’s always had a breaking ball that stood out. The fastball has been fringy over the last few years, though. If that’s starting to play better, there’s a chance he could be useful at the Major League level. He’ll turn 26 next April, though. So if he’s going to be a guy that gets a shot, it’s going to have to happen for him soon.

Do we have a pitcher or two that you would like to see the Reds use as an opener? Do you like the concept of an opener?

The opener as a concept is great. It makes tons of sense. But you’ve got to have the right guy(s) for it. Having a middle reliever open up the game to face the heart of the order doesn’t make an ounce of sense. But if you’ve got good relievers opening up – then yeah, the strategy, on paper at least, is brilliant. But sometimes players can’t handle the different routine for whatever insane reason. Whether that’s the reliever that now has to start, or the starter who now has to come in for the 2nd or 3rd inning – that adjustment to the routine and setting just doesn’t work for them.

The pitfalls of having an opener, though, are there beyond just that. Let’s say you take a relief ace like Amir Garrett and “open” with him. Not that Garrett isn’t capable of handling righties and lefties, but in theory here, you’d “open” with him against a team that has a few lefties in the 1-5 range in their order. The other team could just start the game with some right-handers in their place and now your optimal “opener” situation is defeated, at least in a small part, and they can make changes when he’s out of the game back to their normal lineup.

What positions do you see as the biggest need for upgrade this offseason and how would you address those? Any prospects ready to fill in in a starting role in 2020?

For me the answer is very simple: This team needs a shortstop that can actually hit in the worst kind of way. Jose Iglesias is a fine defender, but he can’t hit. Jose Peraza is young-ish, and he’s had a few stretches where it looks like maybe he’ll hit, but he simply hasn’t. I’m not saying to cut Jose Peraza loose, but he’s going to be 26-years-old next season. And he’s had an on-base percentage under .300 in two of his last three seasons. He’s drawn ONE WALK in the last 56 games. At this point it’s tough to see where he’s going to change to the point that he’ll be valuable enough at the plate to be a starting player. There’s some value in having him as a utility guy. But as a starter? I’m ready to move on from that idea at this point.

Unfortunately, I don’t think the answer is on the farm for 2020. For all of the improvements that Alfredo Rodriguez has made at the plate this year, I just don’t think he’s good enough to be a starter. Alex Blandino can hit enough to be a starting shortstop. But I don’t think he’s got the range to play there every day, even with the defensive shifting going on in today’s game. The guy who could be the answer down the line is Jose Garcia, but he’s still a year-and-a-half away in an optimistic outlook. He’s got the defense now. The bat has made big improvements this year, but there’s still work to be done there, too.

As to how I would address it…. that’s a far tougher question. Free agency is an area where after the last two offseasons, who knows what it will take to sign guys. Didi Gregorius is the clear free agent option you would look at among shortstops. He’s the only guy among the free agents that should even be considered, though – at least as a starting option. For as much as I like what the Reds have done and talked about in terms of committing money moving forward, I’m not sure I can see them outbidding other teams on Gregorius.

That leaves the trade market. I can’t honestly say who is available here, but I think it’s where the team needs to look. And while the farm is a bit depleted, they’ve got some players that have plenty of value still. It might hurt to trade someone to make this happen, but it’s probably necessary. Trevor Bauer isn’t coming back in 2021 unless you make the playoffs in 2020 and look good for 2021, too. So you better commit to winning in 2020.

Realistic stat line for Aristides Aquino over a full season?

135 home runs, .400 average. Kidding, of course. But man, he’s on one heck of a tear to start his career. Obviously it’s not going to continue like this. He’d be the greatest player to ever live if he could keep this going. I think that the most likely scenario is that he’s basically Adam Duvall. He’s going to swing and miss. And while he won’t be Jose Peraza with the complete lack of walks, he’s never been a guy that is going to get his share of free passes. But that power, as we’ve seen will play and play well.

If he’s going to be better than Adam Duvall, one of two things are going to need to happen. First, he’s going to have to beat your “league average BABIP”. If he’s a guy who hits the ball hard enough, often enough, that he can be a .320 BABIP guy instead of a .300 BABIP guy, maybe he can hit .265 or .270, which pushes up the rest of his line. The other is that the power is just so good that he’s a legitimate 45 home run guy, and that counteracts the normal BABIP and he can hit .265 or .270 guy – which again, would push up the entire line. I’d hedge my bets that he’s more of a .245/.310/.475-500 kind of guy in the lone run.

If we wanted to play the 90-percentile outcome and dream of “everything basically goes right”, he turns into a Javier Baez kind of hitter. Insanely high BABIP (Baez is at .341 for his career, and .345-.354 over the last three years), huge power, and that combination is what let’s his terrible walk rate of 4.8% for his career, work. In that scenario you’re looking at a guy who can go .290/.330/.550. That’s an unlikely, but not entirely unrealistic scenario.

Chances that Tyler Stephenson is in a Reds’ uniform next year?

Very high. But let’s clarify that. I believe that he will be in Triple-A to begin the year. He’s played well and earned that promotion. But I think that the team has three guys ahead of him on the depth chart for 2020. That is at least to begin the year.

Tyler Stephenson has to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. He’ll most certainly be added. That means that even to start the year, he’s only an injury or two away from being called up. And catchers get hurt. A lot. It’s just a position of abuse. So the chances that he doesn’t get the call at some point seems very small.

Now, if we’re going to start asking about “will he take over as a starter?”, that’s a different kind of question. I’d say no, not in 2020. Not saying it can’t or won’t happen. I can certainly see a scenario where he just goes nuts with the bat next season and forces their hand. That kind of potential is there. But I think that 2021 at some point is more realistic as far as the time when Tyler Stephenson takes over the job as an every day catcher (which, for catchers is really more like 4-5 days a week depending on the week).

With the Trevor Bauer trade, it looks like the Reds are going all in next year. To do that, I think they need to make either catcher or shortstop a strength. Shortstop seems the more likely choice. Didi Gregorius will be a FA and seems like someone who would fit that bill. No other free agent at short does. Curious what you think of that strategy and of Gregorius. 

I already addressed the Gregorius situation above, so I don’t want to dive too far into that one. I’ve been planning on writing a piece on the current state of baseball and how teams are operating when it comes to “winning now versus controlling players long term”, and I think this question gets to that a bit. Right now it seems nearly every team in baseball is less concerned about winning today than they are having players locked into control long term – particularly prospects who aren’t even in the Major Leagues yet.

Obviously you don’t want to be the team who looks back in five years and you traded away Fernando Tatis Jr. (looking at you, White Sox) for James Shields. But let’s look back at same time, which was June of 2016. Here’s an assortment of names from the Top 25: Alex Reyes, J.P Crawford, Tyler Glasnow, Orlando Arcia, Anderson Espinosa (literally hasn’t pitched since 2016), Jorge Mateo, Willy Adames, Jose De Leon. That’s supposed to be the absolute cream of the crop. And while there were certainly some studs in that top 25 (Josh Hader, Ozzie Albies, Joey Gallo, Yoan Moncada – there’s about half of the Top 25 that just three years later haven’t amounted to even starting caliber big leaguers, much less impact players.

So what am I getting at here? Well, I’m not sure that the Reds are actually going to go “all in” for 2020. But I also think that maybe they should try to. Go get a shortstop. If you can get Didi Gregorius in free agency, all the better, because that just costs money. But if you’ve got to make a trade and move a legitimate prospect in the system – do it. There’s something to be said about actually winning baseball games. And doing it consistently. It makes teams more money. Which in turn lets them spend more, and that means getting better players, or keeping your players around. We’ll see how the Reds go about it, but I’d certainly be doing a whole heck of a lot to bring in a shortstop this offseason.

25 Responses

  1. Tony Bologna

    Great stuff, Doug!

    One creative idea for the middle infield I’ve seen was going after Franklin Barreto. Good numbers in AAA, solid prospect pedigree, still young just not getting a chance at cracking the A’s lineup.

    I know if you want to win in 2020 you probably want a surer thing at SS/2B going into the season, but he could be another instance of catching lightning in a bottle if he can be had.

    Reply
    • wes

      I agree that’s a great role for him, however, Reds are totally committed to have a strong starting 5 and that’s better than opening pitchers. Opening pitchers are not in Reds game plan

      Reply
    • Bill

      Doug laid out some good pros/cons for the opener. I think there are a couple of candidates that could flourish in the role of pitching two innings, on a schedule, every 3 days. Usage like this could provide a manageable schedule to log 100+ innings by a non-starting pitcher, which in theory would reduce workload across the rest of the bullpen to more manageable levels.

      – Lorenzen would be ideal in this role. Pitching on 2 days of rest seems optimum for him. He would likely get to hit when he started and would be available to play in the field, hit or run in the other two days.
      – Sims would be another good fit as he’s really tough the first time through the lineup.

      I would like to see the Reds give this approach a try in September. Effective openers along with a strong starting rotation could really let the bullpen play up quite a bit.

      Reply
  2. wes

    Let’s just keep it real- Big name FA are not going to sign in cincy at the time being. That being said- Alex Wood would not decline a QO as there is no way he makes 17 million next year or get guaranteed enough money to walk away from 17 mil next season. That should be an easy choice for both reds and Wood.

    Odds are Puig declined an extension and odds are Gigi will not consider Cincy even if they are the highest bidder which they can be. Enter Trevor Story- dude is a beast that hits for a ton of power with 2 seasons of Arb left. And Rockies have Rodgers ready to come up at short. Prob take a decent package but not a huge one- one featuring India or Santillian with another stud 19 year old thrown in…

    Story for Santillian Siani and Packy….

    Reply
    • Doug Gray

      I see no reason whatsoever that a free agent wouldn’t sign in Cincinnati that’s a position player if they were offered a realistic contract.

      Reply
      • wes

        Location
        Rich Program
        Ownership with winning reputation
        Endorsement deals
        Reputation
        Popularity
        More experienced management

        Dallas Kuechel passed on 60+ mil with no backup plan. Ask yourself this question- the Reds, with their history and direction, did they try to extend Puig? Can you really say with a greater than 50% assurity that they did not? I’d say there’s an 80% chance they went at him and he said no. More like- he’s going into free agency and leaving the window open to return.

        Big name free agents don’t come to cincy- is what it is- better to just accept it vs getting hopes up for guys who aren’t going to sign.

      • Ghettotrout1

        I am actually with Wes. I see no way any real high end FA comes to Cinci. The only reason I say that is I can’t remember one single top end free agent being signed in my lifetime. Now I’m only 30 so I can’t really comment on stuff before I was like ten or fifteen but, I just figure if you can make comparable money playing elsewhere they will.

      • Bill

        I really haven’t seen any reports that indicated Puig wouldn’t extend. He seemed to genuinely enjoy playing in Cincinnati. I see your logic, but logical speculation is still just speculation.

        Endorsements can cut both ways. Big markets have more big names than smaller markets. LeBron James/Mike Trout types will do well in an LA-sized market, but above average players like Puig won’t get the most lucrative offers.

        I think the Reds offer an excellent location. Less traffic, a good place to raise a family, central location means shorter travel for road trips.

        I think a more likely detractor could be the Reds were in a rebuilding phase–that would seem to be a pretty big deterrent to free agents. I think the Reds will do fine provided they offer comparable compensation and a perceived as being competitive.

      • Doug Gray

        The Reds can’t afford the elite free agents. So endorsement’s don’t matter – the guys the Reds are realistically going after aren’t the guys getting endorsements anyways.

        Winning? That’s why you do what you can to win now. So that is the expectation. It’s why you trade for Sonny Gray. It’s why you trade for Trevor Bauer. To win. And to show others you’re trying to win.

        Popularity? Come on. Location? There’s only so many jobs in this industry. The guys that fit the Reds budget aren’t the guys who just get to choose “big city”.

        Manager? These guys don’t care about that in 99% of the case.

        Dallas Keuchel passed because he thought there were going to be better deals. And I’ve yet to actually see anything remotely factual that says he passed on that kind of offer from the Reds. Likewise, we also saw some rumors that the Reds didn’t like his medical records and backed out.

        And no, they didn’t try to extend Puig. Plenty of rumors that they never even approached him for an extension. But that’s got nothing to do with the Reds not being able to sign free agents.

  3. DanD

    Right now I see the bullpen as an issue, possibly from being overworked. How do you see Kuhnel, Hendrix, Nutoff and Bennett helping in 2020? is there anyone that I might be missing? And who are lets say the top 2 LHRP that can step in for 2020?

    Reply
  4. Cbus

    Another problem with the “opener” is let’s assume it’s one of your better relievers, but the game is a blow out, you just wasted one of your better relievers and can’t use him as much in other games that are close when under normal circumstances during a blowout you’d save your best arms for other games.

    Reply
  5. kevinz

    I wonder if Nick is inside Senzels own Head? He has had a different stance in back 2 back Games. I like the idea of changing your stance or swing just not for every game. I hope he finds what works for him.

    Reply
  6. Hoyce

    I see Francisco lindor as a realistic option for the reds next year. Clev can’t won’t afford. And reds have cleared or will clear ? for next season.
    So my questions are do reds have the prospect capital and or the money to trade/sign him? If so, what will it take??

    Reply
  7. Krozley

    Freddy Galvis is now a Red. Basically Iglesias with more pop, but not quite as good defensively. Let’s see what he can do. I’d rather have Didi for next year, but Galvis could at least be a good bench player if they want to pick up his option.

    I don’t think the free agent thing is players not wanting to come to Cincinnati, it is more the FO didn’t want to play in free agency in the past. If they open the doors, I would think batters would definitely be interested.

    Reply
    • Bill

      Looks like a good pickup. While not a star player, Galvis brings a nice balance between hitting and defense. He could make a contribution towards the bottom of the batting order as he’s not a great OBP guy.

      Reply
  8. Jim t

    Garrett starts serving his 8 game suspension tonight. He dropped his appeal.

    Reply
  9. CincyCastillo

    If the season ended today, the Reds would be the 1st in history to have the big club and all MILB affiliates with losing records and in light of Driveline’s independent report naming Cincinnati to be among the 3-worst in Player Dev. the past 6 years, saying Reds Player Development is an oxymoron. Inasmuch as the Reds and Astros have had the most top round picks in those years, and Houston is #1 in PD, it debunks the theorists who claim Buckley had bad drafts. The problem lies with PD, full stop!!!

    PD is the most critical component to the success of the big league team.

    Some say that winning isn’t the chief concern. Well, seemingly,
    neither is developing players, because no impact position player or even very good player has been developed since Joey V.

    The 2 former Haverford buddies (Graupe & Eric Lee) have been the Farm Directors during the last decade or so and the time has come for accountability and a massive cleaning out of the minor leagues, from coaches to staff. Also, Nick Krall should be accountable, as well, because he has oversight and control. DW seems like a very good guy, but he likely doesn’t know what the issues are down on the farm, though he better start.

    Bottom line is if a business continues to be highly unsuccessful for 7 years, the shareholders would be livid and the CEO would be axed. Well, no one has been axed. All they did was rearrange the deck chairs, as I’ve seen people cleverly write on this site. Cronyism and the Haverford non-dynamic duo are the root cause of the overall situation, which makes Krall accountable, because he placed them and retained them. Clean them all out and name Doug the new FD, because he knows more than they do and he supports the players in their plight for a liveable wage.

    Reds fans and Mr. C. deserve more, which would occur with an
    infusion of new blood and better PD and coaches. You can do it DW. Say “no mas Graupe, Lee and Krall.”

    Reply
    • Doug Gray

      The Reds named a new farm director last October. Eric Lee who you specifically call out is not the farm director, he’s second in command among the farm itself. The Reds also named a new field coordinator in the farm system, bringing in Chris Tremie from the Indians.

      You’re also forgetting some guy named Cueto in that whole “haven’t developed anyone since Joey Votto” thing. Overall, I think you have *some* points here. The Reds haven’t exactly been good at development overall. They’ve been solid at developing position guys, though, in my opinion. They’ve been terrible at developing pitching.

      I think the current crop should be given more time than, *checks notes*, one year. The Reds clearly saw that something wasn’t working. They turned Jeff Graupe’s job into the job that’s now handled by two people. They got a new scouting director. They got a new international scouting director. They brought in a new field coordinator at the minor league level. Changes were made.

      The one thing that did surprise me, though, was that they did make all of those changes, but the managers and coaches and coordinators almost completely across the board stayed the same. That’s interesting in a few different ways. Is that them saying those guys just weren’t given the right inputs? Is that the new guys wanting to take 2019 to see what they can do with their leadership/information/whatever before deciding this offseason whether to keep them around? They changed a whole lot at the top, but not much of anything in terms of people at the day-to-day player level. I’m not really sure what that means. What I do know is that things are being done differently in 2019 than they were in 2018 and before. More technology is being used to evaluate and coach. I’ve heard coaches use words that I had not heard them use before.

      Will it make a difference? Will things change this offseason? I honestly don’t know. But things are changing. Things are being done differently.

      Reply
      • Chris

        Doug, I hope you are wrong on projection/comparison of AA to Adam Duvall?!?! Wow, major buzz kill there.

      • Doug Gray

        Hey, I hope I’m wrong, too. But it’s the same profile at the plate – big power (30+), low walks, high strikeouts.

        Adam Duvall has a career MLB walk rate of 6.8% and a 27.3% strikeout rate.

        Aristides Aquino the last three seasons between AA and AAA had a walk rate of 7.6% and a strikeout rate of 26.6%. The numbers didn’t change much year-to-year. What changed this year versus the previous two was he went from “very good power” to “insane power”. He went from a guy with 25-30 HR pace to a guy with 60 HR pace. Is it possible that he can maintain a 60 HR pace? I mean, I guess anything is possible. But it’s not likely. So I guess you need to figure out exactly how many home runs you think he’s going to hit. If he’s a 30-35 HR guy, he’s a .250/.310 or .320 average/on-base guy. There’s nothing wrong with that kind of profile. But that’s what it is unless he can have an insanely high BABIP like Javier Baez (he’s never been that guy in the minors, so it’s tough to buy that he can be that guy now).

  10. MK

    There are a couple of issues I see with the development of players. There is much more emphasis on the offensive side than the pitching side.Tony Fossas is a great minor league coordinator and each team has a pitching coach, but since half of the rosters are pitchers there is just a need for more instructor/ coaches. There is a manager /bench coach on each year but none are former pitchers. With a majority of the roving instructors, managers, bench coaches being former position players and thus hitters. More resources need to go on pitching side.
    Second issue is the quality of the of player selections lower in draft. All we have to do is look how many players have been added to the system in the last 30-days through free agency.

    Reply
  11. kevinz

    A nice little Move. Adds another left bat plus is a Vet one so that Help there.
    Not a Huge move but a calculated one which makes it a smart move.

    Reply
  12. Madison Mike

    You mentioned ty steve has to be added to 40 man this off season, who are some other guys that need to be added?

    Reply
    • Colorado Red

      Along with that. Is there anyone who is rule 5 eligible that might be worth a look.
      OF course we would need an open spot on the 40 man, and that may be hard.

      Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.