Photo: Doug GrayCincinnati Reds 2020 Top 25 Prospect List: 6-10 Doug Gray November 7, 2019 36 Comments The week continues with the Cincinnati Reds Top 25 Prospect List by looking at the next group of five players between 6 and 10 on the list. We’ve been counting down since Monday and it’ll keep on going through Friday. If you were supporting the site on Patreon you would have gotten the entire Top 25 list last week and had early access to this, and all other scouting related articles that show up on the site. Click here to see what all you can get for helping keep the site alive and kicking via support through Patreon. Just as a reminder, these write ups will not feature full scouting reports. Those will be included with the Season Reviews, which will start next week – first working my way through the Top 25 prospects before then branching out into another 50-75 interesting prospects through the remainder of the offseason. For the entire list you can click here (each day it will be updated as the next piece comes out). *To be eligible for the list a player must have 2020 Rookie of the Year eligibility (Fewer than 130 at bats in the big leagues, fewer than 50 innings pitches or less than 45 days on the active MLB roster that doesn’t include September)* 6. Jonathan India | 3B | Age: 22 2019 Teams: Daytona/Chattanooga | Acquired: 1st round, 2018 | Height: 6′ 0″ | Weight: 200 lbs | B/T: R/R The Reds drafted Jonathan India out of Florida in 2018 with the fifth overall pick. He was coming off of a huge season there where he put up an OPS of 1.213 in 300 plate appearances. But his professional debut didn’t exactly go as expected. While he was above-average – he hit just .240 between Greeneville, Billings, and Dayton in 2018. His 28 walks helped give him a .380 on-base percentage, and his 16 extra-base hits pumped his slugging percentage up to .433. Still, the overall numbers weren’t quite what you expected from the #5 overall pick. In 2019 Cincinnati pushed him to Daytona to begin the year. In the minors most pitcher friendly league Jonathan India was again above-average, but didn’t quite hit as well as expected. His .256 average was the thing that stood out. He drew plenty of walks, giving him a .346 on-base percentage, and he slugged .410 – which in that league, along with a .256 average, is actually decent power output. His OPS was 26% better than the league average when adjusted for park factors. He moved up to the Double-A affiliate in the second half and watched his game change at the plate. With the Lookouts his power dropped off, but he walked significantly more, struck out significantly less, and hit for a higher average. Overall in Double-A in 145 plate appearances he hit .270/.414/.378. Biggest Strength: Power potential. While he hasn’t quite shown it off in games yet, there’s plenty of pop in his bat if he can get to it. Biggest Weakness: Through two seasons as a professional the hit-tool, which was supposed to potentially be above-average, has been anything but in games. He’s hit .254 – and while the peripheral numbers are there to suggest it could improve – right now, .254 is .254. 2019 Season Stats 7. Stuart Fairchild | OF | Age: 23 2019 Teams: Daytona/Chattanooga | Acquired: 2nd round, 2017 | Height: 6′ 0″ | Weight: 190 lbs | B/T: R/R After being drafted in 2017 the Reds sent Stuart Fairchild to Billings. The second rounder hit well, posting a .304/.393/.412 line for the Mustangs. Last year saw Cincinnati send the outfielder to Dayton to begin the year and he performed well, posting an .836 OPS in the first half and earning a promotion to Daytona. That’s where he hit a bit of a slump, hitting .250/.306/.350 in the second half with the Tortugas. The Reds sent Fairchild back to Daytona to start the year and things went better this time around. The outfielder hit .258/.335/.440 while walking more, striking out less, and hitting for significantly more power. He was promoted to Double-A Chattanooga for the second half and not only didn’t miss a beat, but improved. Fairchild played in 42 games for the Lookouts down the stretch, hitting .275/.380/.444 while improving his walk rate and drastically cutting down on his strikeout rate in Double-A. Biggest Strength: He’s a center fielder who has a chance to provide plenty of offense. Biggest Weakness: Despite being an above-average speed guy, and having success on the bases in the past, he was caught stealing more times in 2019 than he has successful steals (7 caught stealing, 6 steals). 2019 Season Stats 8. Jose Siri | OF | Age: 24 2019 Teams: Chattanooga/Louisville | Acquired: International FA 2012 | Height: 6′ 2″ | Weight: 175 lbs | B/T: R/R After having a breakout year in 2017 with the Dayton Dragons where he hit .293/.341/.530, the 2018 campaign for Jose Siri didn’t quite match up. After injuring his thumb in spring training he missed nearly two months before joining Daytona. Once he got things going there he was promoted to Double-A Pensacola. In 66 games there in the second half he hit .229/.300/.474. The Reds sent Jose Siri back to Double-A this year, but this time with their new affiliate in Chattanooga. With the Lookouts his walk rate and strikeout rates were essentially the same as they were in the previous year with Pensacola – but his power output wasn’t nearly the same. He hit .251/.313/.388 before getting a call up to Triple-A for the final month of the season. The center fielder struggled at the plate, hitting just .186/.252/.245 as his strikeout rate jumped to 35% and his power fell off of the map. Biggest Strength: Defense. He’s a plus defensive center fielder with athleticism, range, and a strong arm. Biggest Weakness: Pitch identification. Things have improved some in the last few years here, and his walk rate has gone up – but he also watched his strikeout rate jump up to well over 30% in 2019. Making contact has been a big issue since arriving in the upper levels of the minor leagues. 2019 Season Stats 9. Rece Hinds | IF | Age: 19 2019 Teams: Greeneville | Acquired: 2nd round, 2019 | Height: 6′ 4″ | Weight: 215 lbs | B/T: R/R The Cincinnati Reds used their 2nd round pick in 2019 to select Rece Hings out of IMG Academy in Florida. Known for his power potential, Hinds was sent to join the Greeneville Reds in the Appalachian League. He went hitless in his first three games of the season. Unfortunately he only played in three games all season. His quad began to act up early on and while he remained with the team and even participated in some workouts while there, whenever he tried to get back to game speed he had to step back. Biggest Strength: Power. He’s got plus to plus-plus raw power in his bat. Biggest Weakness: Defense – sort of. Where he is eventually going to wind up on the defensive spectrum is a bit up in the air right now. He played shortstop in high school, but third base seems likely early on his career. 2019 Season Stats 10. Tyler Callihan | 2B | Age: 19 2019 Teams: Greeneville/Billings | Acquired: 3rd round, 2019 | Height: 6′ 1″ | Weight: 205 lbs | B/T: L/R The Cincinnati Reds used their draft budget to go big with their 3rd round pick, selecting and signing Tyler Callihan to a well over-slot signing bonus to bring him into the organization. The Reds sent the then 18-year-old to join the Greeneville Reds to begin his professional career. After hitting .200 with no walks and no extra-base hits in the first seven games of the season he turned things around. Over the next 50 games, including a late-season call up to Billings, Tyler Callihan hit .273/.313/.479 with 22 extra-base hits. He split his time on the defensive side of the ball between second (22 games) and third (31 games) Biggest Strength: Power. He’s got above-average to plus raw power to tap into in the future. Biggest Weakness: From a statistical standpoint he didn’t walk hardly at all during the year and that’s a rate that’s going to need to improve. From a tools standpoint he’s a below-average runner. 2019 Season Stats You can see the entire Cincinnati Reds Top 25 Prospect list here (once it’s completed at the end of the week) Share this:FacebookTwitterRedditPocket 36 Responses Michael Parker November 7, 2019 Doug, a few years back didn’t you do a list that comped prospects to a big league player and/or a list that projected yearly stats (maybe at peak) for each? This gave me a better sense of the type of players that we could be looking at. For example, in additional to a typical projectable stat line, are these everyday players, fringe all-stars, routine all-stars, or potential MVP’s. Doug Gray November 7, 2019 I doubt that I made an actual comparison to a player, because I hate doing that kind of thing. I may have made note about what kind of player someone would eventually be, though, if they fully developed. Spoiler alert, though, no one that’s made the list to this point has that routine All-Star feel. Michael Parker November 7, 2019 Thank you Doug! SultanofSwaff November 7, 2019 Doug, who has the higher ceiling—Fairchild or Siani? Doug Gray November 7, 2019 I think I’d lean Fairchild by the slimmest of margins. There’s a little more power in there for him, and I think he’ll hit a little better. Siani makes some of that up with the better defense and base running value. I believe that some others would certainly lean towards Siani on this one, though. MK November 7, 2019 I would be one of those. Just from his physical frame standpoint. I see a body better able to stand up over the long haul of a season from Michael. Fairchild is a little more polished at this point but think Siani has the ability to catch up and pass him. Doug Gray November 7, 2019 For sure, MK. As I said, there are people that would most certainly disagree with me. And I can 100% understand and even make the argument. Siani has a clear advantage on the bases and in the field. I think Fairchild has a clear advantage at the plate, both in terms of hit and power. For me, given that Fairchild is a fine center field option, even if it’s not up to where Siani is, that gives him the “upside” edge for me. But for those who believe in the bat of Siani a little more than I do (not that I think he won’t hit, just that there’s more upside in there than I think), it makes plenty of sense to lean Siani. SultanofSwaff November 7, 2019 Fairchild is the only guy from the lists so far this week that I’d pause before trading to upgrade the ML roster. Kap November 7, 2019 I was just going to say something very similar. Always had a soild OBP with some pop and can play center. Seems like a guy with a high floor Tom November 7, 2019 Really happy to see Fairchild move up in such a way. I remember reading a rival exec praise him. Could be the sneaky pick to start in CF from 2021-2026 with Senzel moving to 2b after this year if India doesn’t emerge by then. I really like the Hinds / Callihan picks from last year. They sort of feel different than years past under Buckley – who was great IMO but had some different tendencies. We’ve all been a little down on the system up to this point and this 6-10 certainly isn’t the strongest we’ve seen, but this time next year Hinds and Callihan could be killing it in Dayton. India and Fairchild knocking on the door in AAA and setting up the Reds for a nice 2021, etc… Doug Gray November 7, 2019 Not that I’m suggesting the that Hinds turns out similarly, but he feels a lot like the Gabriel Rosa KJ Franklin types of picks – big time power, questionable defensive home. There’s some differences, of course, between the three guys – but I wouldn’t say he’s all that different from what Buckley did often – take a high upside bat with some things they need to really work on improving. Tom November 7, 2019 I thought those guys were a lot less well regarded and more for saving money to spread around the draft. They don’t seem like close to the same category of prospect. Doug Gray November 7, 2019 They were a bit lesser regarded, but the profile is similar – bats with power, questionable defensive landing spots, questionable ability to hit non-fastballs. Tom November 7, 2019 I think KJ was in the 500’s of some lists. A true scratch off ticket. But I get your point. Doug Gray November 7, 2019 He got $675,000. Not the lowest bonus handed out in the round by a long shot – and he was one of the last players taken in the round. Five guys in the 3rd round got more money. He basically got the slot value. Whoever had him as a guy rated 500th was very wrong. Baseball America had him somewhere in the 4th/5th round, which would mean just outside of the Top 100-150. Oldtimer November 7, 2019 Maybe NL will have DH by the time he’s ready in 2023 or so. RED LIGHT November 7, 2019 I’d probably have Callihan, India, then Hinds in that order followed by Fairchild and Siri. I doubt Siri ever hits enough to be a regular and Fairchild is a complimentary player at his peak. I have strong doubts about India but it’s a weak system and hey, he walks a lot. Don’t think you can use him and “impact guy” in The same sentence though. Hinds has light tower power potential. I’m actually really excited about him. Will he be Isabel or Gallo? If he’s closer to Gallo then lookout because he has a lot of athleticism to pair with the power. Callihan impressed me after his slow start. He showed a lot of aggression and just strikes me as a guy who will find a way to succeed. My hope is that he can be a power hitting 2nd baseman with some speed, although I see him getting pretty thick as he approaches his mid 20s. Norwood Nate November 7, 2019 A little surprised to see India at #6. But honestly it’s probably pretty accurate for what he’s accomplished and considering the offensive players ahead of him had better seasons and play more important defensive positions (and play them well). wes November 7, 2019 You have him higher or lower? I’m still pretty high on India; well I wasn’t that high on him in the first place so I don’t really see his stock being too much lower than when they drafted him. His plate discipline is MLB ready. If he can get hit for a bit more power and come out rested and hot- he’s a potential 2nd baseman candidate next season if current MLB crop struggles imo. I think Reds drafted him hoping he would continue his hot streak/breakout streak so they could trade him to help this current team which wasn’t a bad strategy, but Reds should have took a high ceiling guy instead of a high floor guy with that pick as he has little trade value right now and is a future second basemen on this team. Norwood Nate November 7, 2019 In my head I had him either #4 or #5. But can see a good argument for having him at #6. If it were me I’d have Lodolo, Greene, Stephenson top three and India, Santillan, Garcia the next three. I don’t have much of a preference for how those are ordered but based on India’s previous ranking and typically being on most top 100 lists I expected him to land top 5. MK November 7, 2019 I’m really surprised India is still in the Top 10. From what I saw at Dayton I thought his feet looked a little heavy and slow defensively. He would be better suited for right side of infield. It is kind of surprising they have not moved him defensively already as they know a position change is necessary. His offense so far would have to be a disappointment. I would try to move him in trade before his stock drops any further, and the AzFL really helped that drop along this fall. Amdg November 7, 2019 India still seems to be living off his draft position. It will probably take another year for folks to admit his one good season in college was an aberration. At this time next year India will likely be in the 10 – 20 range. AirborneJayJay November 7, 2019 I like the move up by Stuart Fairchild. There is a sense there that he will be a Major Leaguer. The other 4 leave a lot to be desired. Not one of those 4 would be a top-10 prospect on a team with a good farm system. India is overrated and over-hyped. A very bad draft pick. Siri is overrated and over-hyped. Hinds doesn’t have a hit as a professional. A .240 hitter with some power. Big whoop. Calihan might amount to a good 2B, some day. Like the other groups, this is a rather discouraging group of prospects to be our #6 – #10 ranked prospects. Tanking for 5 seasons really loaded up the Reds farm system. Just like it did for San Diego, the Chicago White Sox and the Atlanta Braves. (Heavy sarcasm). This farm system, when compared to other tanking/rebuilding teams and teams already rebuilt, is a rather wretched group. The Reds are writing the book on “How NOT to do a MLB Rebuild.” Tom November 7, 2019 Those three teams tanked for a lot longer. Mileage may vary as well. Hate to be San Diego for example. All hype no results 10+ years in. Krozley November 7, 2019 I think India will have a nice comeback in 2020 and solidify his place in baseball’s top 100. His AA numbers were solid except for a lack of power, but according to Mark Sheldon on the Reds site, he was dealing with a “nagging wrist injury” that could explain it and apparently the Reds aren’t concerned. Hopefully he will be healthy next year and his slugging will go up while maintaining a high OBP. I would still have him slightly above Garcia and Santillan. MK November 7, 2019 To comeback you had to be somewhere before and as a professional he has not. AllTheHype November 7, 2019 Jose Siri in the top 20 is overrated. He doesn’t possess any sort of viable hit tool, or pitch recognition, or plate discipline. He K’ed more than one third of his at bats. Give me Joel Kuhnel, for instance, over Jose Siri. Kuhnel may be a reliever, but at least he has a viable chance to impact the ML roster. Siri adds nothing to a ML roster except as potential backfill and defensive specialist. His skills would at most warrant a temporary roster spot, if the stars align and no other better player is available for the spot. Siri is not a prospect, any more. Wes November 7, 2019 With the emergence of Aquino last season u got to keep up w these older prospects finally clicking. Siri’s got tons of tools. I think Kuhnel is reds 7th rated prospect. Somehow ranking prospects have never caught onto the importance of relief pitchers in majors even though a lot of times they make more than position players. Throwing a 100 mph is a big deal. MK November 7, 2019 With this kind of thinking Cesar Geronimo would never have become the eighth member of the Great 8. Siri has mega times more power and speed, similar plate discipline to Cesar. Siri has tools and to me more than India. Oldtimer November 7, 2019 https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/geronce01.shtml good point. Struggled as NYY MiLB player, better as HOU MiLB player. Struggled with HOU in MLB then was a whole lot better as CIN MLB star. 4 straight GG in mid 1970s. Lots of 2B and 3B as a Red. What set him apart from most CF was his very long stride. Big Klu made him into MLB hitter. Doug Gray November 7, 2019 Jose Siri is a prospect. Still. Curt November 7, 2019 Doug, What has to happen for a player to no longer qualify as a prospect? I’m a bit confused say with O’Grady. You have him at #26 or something yet wasn’t he the player of the year in Louisville? If he’s still a prospect, wouldn’t he be in the top 5 at least? How is a 16 year old with no experience a higher prospect? Clearly I’m missing something. Sorry for the newbie type question, TIA if you have the time to explain. No worries if you don’t. Doug Gray November 8, 2019 Technically anyone who still has rookie of the year eligibility for the next season in the Major Leagues is a “prospect”. But when rating prospects the idea is to try and rate them based on who will have the best long-term career in the Major Leagues. Right now Brian O’Grady is a better player, and a more valuable player at the Major League level than most of the list. But that doesn’t mean he’s the best prospect, either. O’Grady is a guy who could carve out a career as a utility/bench guy who can do enough things to hang around a while. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with that. But he’s probably never going to be an every day player, either. A guy like Minier, for example – he hasn’t played a single game yet. And that makes him incredibly risky to project. But based on the tools and the projection of those tools – he could be a future above-average starting caliber player. There’s a lot of value in that kind of guy, even with the risk involved. If there were less risk, a player like that would be rated much higher. Hope that helps out some. Curt November 8, 2019 Yes, quite helpful. Thank you Doug! Amdg November 7, 2019 Siri had a nice hitting streak a couple years ago in A ball. But he is a non-hitter who doesn’t project as anything more than Drew Stubbs with less power, less speed, and less hits. Gaffer November 7, 2019 Ugh, a bunch of guys who have either not played enough to know what we have in them OR guys who have played enough that we do know what we are getting (and it’s not too great). I know the top 5 will get better but the last decade most Reds prospects list went 7-8 deep with guys that had performed well at several levels. I know we graduated a few guys recently but they were mostly older guys who surprised at AAA, where is the depth?