Photo: Doug GrayCincinnati Reds #1 Prospect: Hunter Greene Doug Gray December 23, 2019 42 Comments The 2018 season came to an end early for Hunter Greene, and not in the way you wanted it to. In mid-to-late July he began feeling something in his pitching elbow, and ultimately he was shut down with a partial tear in his UCL. Rather than opt for Tommy John surgery, Greene decided to give rehab a shot first. Things seemed to be going as planned, and in October he said he was 100% and feeling great. When spring training began he was throwing, and while he was a little behind the other pitchers, he was on target and working his way towards games. But in the final week of spring training he suffered a tear in his UCL – new damage to the ligament – according to Cincinnati Reds President of Baseball Operations. At this point Hunter Greene decided to undergo Tommy John surgery, which of course meant that he would miss the entire 2019 season. Hunter Greene Scouting Report Position: Right-handed pitcher | B/T: R/R Height: 6′ 4″ | Weight: 215 lbs | Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 Before diving into the scouting report, let’s just be sure to note that all of this information was from 2018 when he was healthy. Fastball | When it comes to velocity from starters, Hunter Greene is unmatched. Most days he sits at 98-100 MPH. He’s touched 102 MPH as a starter. In the 2018 Futures Game he topped out just over 103 MPH. The pitch can be a little bit straight, but it’s still an 80-grade offering. Slider | When the slider is at the top of it’s game, it’s a plus offering. There’s some inconsistency at times, but even when it’s not at it’s best, it’s at least a Major League average pitch. Change Up | The change up is his third offering, and he goes to it less frequently than the other two pitches. It’s also behind the other two offerings. With that said, it’s an average pitch and flashes itself as an above-average to plus pitch at times. When he’s healthy and at the top of his game, he’s going to beat just about any hitter. The fastball and slider combination are deadly, and his change up – while not quite on par with two plus to plus-plus offerings, is plenty good enough. And the change up will likely get better with time, too. The upside with Hunter Greene is nearly unmatched. You don’t have to dream too much to see him developing into an ace. But at the same time you have a pitcher who has now had two injuries to his elbow and is coming back from Tommy John surgery. When he next takes the mound in a game it will likely be the first time in nearly two years that he’s done so. His rehab process appears to be going exactly as expected. He’s throwing on flat ground at this point and there haven’t been any set backs along the way. April will be the 1-year mark of his surgery, so don’t expect him to be back on the mound when the 2020 season begins. But if things go as planned, he should be pitching during the upcoming season. This article was first sent out to those who support the site over on Patreon. Early access is one of the perks that you could get be joining up as a Patron and supporting the work done here at RedsMinorLeagues.com. Share this:FacebookTwitterRedditPocket 42 Responses Wes December 23, 2019 Several years ago it seemed that as reds starters phased out a new one/two punch of bobsteve and Cody Reed were going to anchor this rotation and keep the reds winning ways going. That could not have gone much worse, but really hope reds don’t give up on that plan ! Greene and lodolo can make the next rebuild in 2 seasons potentially non existent. Hope they both stay reds ! Redleg4life December 23, 2019 If Greene comes back to 2018 form then I would develope him into the next aroldis Chapman. That way we can Trade Iglesias and get a fifth innings eater to round out our rotation for the next season with lodolo. Norwood Nate December 24, 2019 Not only BobSteve and Reed. We were highly anticipating Lorenzen, Garrett, and Romano arriving to add to Finnegan and Disco. Only Disco stuck in the rotation, and he was largely developed elsewhere. The major missteps of the rebuild are two-fold. #1. Bad returns and poor timing on trades (WJ era) #2. Being completely unable to develop any starting pitching out of numerous talented options. From what I’ve seen of DW/NK has been much more encouraging. I’m hoping with Boddy in charge of developing pitching that will too improve. Wes December 23, 2019 If dodgers want clevinger and Lindor- they have the resources to make that happen and make Cleveland very happy in the process w Lux as a centerpiece and several other high quality back up pieces like Urías, Verdugo, May, seager, Pederson and many more. Not looking good for reds and Lindor. If they miss out- hopefully they can position themselves to grab seager ! He will be easier to extend too RojoBenjy December 23, 2019 I like the idea of waiting for Dodgers to get Lindor, then they’ll need to dump Seager. Someone made this comment on another thread a day or two ago, and it’s a good idea. Curt December 23, 2019 Might be waiting a long time. Clevinger’s who they need not Lindor. MuddyCleats December 31, 2019 Agree, so why not send Seaver & players 2 Indians. Keep Lux as coverage when Lindor walks. Don’t see Reds having ammo 4 Lindor? Colorado Red December 23, 2019 A less expensive (since they need to get rid of him) Seager would still be a nice upgrade. Curt December 23, 2019 Why do they ‘need’ to get rid of him? Colorado Red December 23, 2019 Sorry if I was not clear. Seager will be a lot less expensive in terms of prospects, and salary then Lindor is. Merry Christmas to all. SultanofSwaff December 23, 2019 Pre-injury, I didn’t like the pitch mix they had Greene using……he was only throwing a few changeups per start. To get him where he needs to go there needs to be more emphasis on developing that pitch. We know he could get to the bigs with two pitches but he’ll need a credible third pitch to remain and start. Come on, man. You know better than to use that kind of language. SultanofSwaff December 23, 2019 I did??? My bad. What word did I use and what does it rhyme with? Doug Gray December 23, 2019 Hoover has a big one named after him. Schottzie December 23, 2019 The Vacuum guy? Matthew Gorrasi December 23, 2019 Much appreciated Doug! My 14 year old son checks out your site so I appreciate you keeping things clean and family friendly! RojoBenjy December 23, 2019 JJ? Norwood Nate December 24, 2019 Fish say it when they run into a wall. Billy December 23, 2019 Unrelated to Hunter Greene, but I have a question… The Cubs are waiting on a ruling on Kris Bryant’s grievance hearing, with the outcome potentially meaning Bryant hits free agency a year earlier. What are the implications of that hearing on Nick Senzel’s years of team control, if anything? Does he have grounds to make the same argument if Bryant wins? Or does his injury in AAA kill any chance he may have get that year back? Doug Gray December 23, 2019 I don’t think he’s got a case. I do think Bryant has a case. Very tough to prove, though. RojoBenjy December 23, 2019 I agree, Senzel has a harder case to prove, because of the ankle injury. Bryant has a better argument, and like Doug says, it’s going to be really hard to prove at that. Colorado Red December 23, 2019 I think the real reason Nick would have a harder time, is the CF playing. He was sent down to learn CF, not just to play and come up in 13 days. MK December 23, 2019 First thing they need to do in the Greene rehab season is turn off the scoreboard radar readings so Hunter and crowd can not see it. After seeing most of his home appearances with the Dragons and getting to know him a little off the field Hunter is the real deal,and is pretty well grounded. . However he is still a kid who gets fired up by the oohs and ahs of the crowd, With a little more work, like Nolan Ryan, his breaking ball is going to be a devastating strike out pitch. We just have to give him the time to progress and not try to rush him like Bailey and Stephenson RojoBenjy December 23, 2019 “and not try to rush him like Bailey and Stephenson” Do the Reds finally have the development staff that will listen to your sound advice, MK? I’m so nervous about how they do things. Oldtimer December 23, 2019 Nolan Ryan pitched in MLB regularly in his third season of professional baseball. Tom Seaver likewise. All due respect, Hunter Greene is neither of those (yet). If healthy, Green should be in Reds SP rotation by 2022. If fully healthy, he should be an ace SP for Reds. Jon Ryker December 23, 2019 Teach him to get people out at 94. Then he might have a chance at a career. Hoyce December 24, 2019 I was worried the refs would end up w Cole Calhoun. But he just signed elsewhere. One bullet dodged Earmbrister December 24, 2019 By a bullet being dodged, did you mean signing a guy that could readily shore up the Reds outfield? A Gold Glover, whose slightly above average at the plate, he would’ve been a nice compliment to Aquino in RF. Something that Castellanos, Ozuna, Dickerson, and Shogo cannot provide. Oh well. Happy Holidays everyone! Earmbrister December 24, 2019 *who’s* Hoyce December 24, 2019 Seager and Pederson to reds Winker, Galvis, India, Ruiz and maybe gondolin to Indians Lindor to dodgers Who says no?? Unfair from any side?? Colt Holt December 25, 2019 Reds shouldn’t be giving up major talent in a trade involving Lindor, but not get Lindor. Hanawi December 25, 2019 Indians. Oldtimer December 25, 2019 Indians say (no, shout) NO. If you trade the #1 SS in MLB you must get 2 or 3 high potential talents in return. Winker, Galvis, and India are not that. Hoyce December 25, 2019 Ruiz and India are both top 50ish. And the Indians are getting like 22 years of control for 2 of lindor. I’d guess if lindor is traded. They won’t do better than that Optimist December 25, 2019 22 cents is less than 2 dollars. Extrapolate accordingly. Oldtimer December 26, 2019 India ranks #93 among MiLB prospects per MLB.com not 50-ish. Hoyce December 25, 2019 Extrapolate something that does work! Or no ideas to give? Optimist December 25, 2019 I’m with Oldtimer on this thread. Of all the players mentioned, only Winker has shown good MLB talent. Galvis is replacement level, and the rest are MiLBers with various levels of potential, none of which are at the “can’t miss” stage. Lindor is a repeat All Star/repeat MVP candidate entering his prime. Extrapolating is just a technique, may or may not be accurate. As an example, would you rather have 2 years of Babe Ruth, or 20 years of Babe Herman? At least the total of Babe Herman’s career has arguable value (though I’d prefer Ruth for 2). The list you gave doesn’t seem a good risk for the tribe. A better risk is better current MLB talent AND much better prospects. Seems they rate Senzel much better than Winker as existing talent, and clearly want multiple top 1-2 prospects from whatever source. That would be Greene/Lodolo/TySteve/Lux/Verdugo. Hard to disagree with them. Finally, consider the Cubs/Yanks trade a few years ago – 1/2 year of Chapman helped them to the title, while the Yanks are just into the 6 ripe years of Torres. But that 1/2 year did get the title. Hanawi December 25, 2019 Galvis has almost zero value. Remember every American League team could have claimed him for free and passed. Reds would need to add someone like Mahle or Lodolo to the package instead. Might also require Dodgers to give up May instead of Gonsolin, but that would take them out of the running probably. I don’t think they’d go for Lindor without trying to get Clevenger anyway. Optimist December 26, 2019 Galvis doesn’t quite have zero value – IIRC WAR of 0-1 is replacement level. Though all passed on him I think that was at picking up the salary in the context of his value. His value is as throw in/extra guy in a big trade, or for volume prospects in a straight up deal. With his power he’d be a decent in the 8th spot in the order. Reds problems have been they’ve had multiple decent 8th spot players the past few years, as well as some outright negative WAR contributors. Oldtimer December 26, 2019 Mahle and Lodolo are not on the same planet as prospects. Hanawi December 27, 2019 Eh, I know Lodolo is more valuable. Reds might need to go there in this hypothetical. I do think Mahle’s value is not that far off as to be “on another planet”. He’s still young and has solid minor league numbers to back him up. Oldtimer December 27, 2019 Mahle is a decent #5 starter. Not good, not great, but decent. Lodolo has #1 (ace) potential. Different planets entirely.