Photo: Doug GrayMost likely non-roster pitcher to make the Reds this spring Doug Gray February 3, 2020 29 Comments Pitchers and catchers report. Oh what wonderful words those are. The Cincinnati Reds will open their gates up for pitchers and catchers in 10 days, as those guys need to report on February 13th. It seems that nearly every year a non-roster invite to spring training will wind up making the team. But this year that might be the toughest thing to do among the pitchers because of how the team looks as they head into things. The roster rules are set for 2020. There will be 26-man rosters for the first time on an every day basis. But of those 26 players, teams are limited to having just 13 pitchers on the roster. They’re allowed fewer if they choose, but can’t have more. It feels safe that the Reds will go with 13. If we assume everyone remains healthy, which is a big assumption of course, there don’t appear to be many spots available. The rotation is set. Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani, and Wade Miley are going to be the starting five. The bullpen isn’t set, but there’s a handful of guys that are going to be locks. Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett, Pedro Strop and Robert Stephenson appear to be locked in. That’s 10 pitchers that seem to be locked in. In the bullpen, there are also several higher profile arms that are out of options. Cody Reed, Sal Romano, and Lucas Sims are all out of options. It’s certainly possible that Cincinnati could just play the options game and those three guys make the bullpen and that’s that. It would fill up the pitching staff – assuming that everyone is healthy of course. It is possible that the options may not come into play, though. But it would seem that you’re probably going to need to see someone clearly outperform one of Reed, Romano or Sims to grab a spot in the bullpen. Behind the guys with options is a group of guys that include Joel Kuhnel and Ryan Hendrix – two guys with fastballs that have touched triple digits and have plenty of success in the past. Matt Bowman has had plenty of success in the Major Leagues, including posting a 3.66 ERA last season in 27 games with Cincinnati. Jose De Leon is a former top prospect who racked up 74 strikeouts in 56.0 innings in the minor leagues last season while in the Tampa Bay organization. Long story short: The 40-man roster has tons of competition for relatively few spots. The Reds have extended non-roster invites to nine pitchers so far this year. Below is a quick look at how/where each pitched last season: There are some good performances on that chart. And there are some, uh, not so good ones, too. While there are nine players listed above, one of them realistically isn’t in spring training to pitch for a job on the big league staff. Nick Lodolo is going to be there, and he’s got the best pure stuff of anyone on the list. But he’s not going to get a job in the bullpen – he’s a starting pitcher and he’s going to be developed as a starting pitcher. So cross him off of the list for now. That leaves us with the other eight guys. Nate Jones has had a good Major League career. He’s pitched in parts of eight seasons in the big leagues and has a career ERA of 3.12. From 2015-2019 his ERA was 2.67 for the Chicago White Sox. Unfortunately for Jones, he’s struggled to stay healthy and on the mound. Only twice in that span did he pitch in 20 games in a season. In the last three seasons he’s thrown 11.2, 30.0, and 10.1 innings in the Majors. When he’s been on the mound he’s been successful, but he’s barely been on the mound. If he’s healthy, the stuff has been there. But he’s also coming back from another surgery – he underwent flexor mass surgery in May of 2019. Who knows where his stuff will be coming back at age 34 from that? Jesse Biddle was pretty good in 2018 in his rookie season with Atlanta. Pitching out of the Braves bullpen he posted a 3.11 ERA in 63.2 innings with 31 walks and 67 strikeouts. But last season was a disaster for the lefty, who walked nearly as many hitters as he struck out between three teams in the Major Leagues after being traded and then later put on waivers. He ultimately wound up posting an 8.36 ERA. If the Biddle that showed up in 2018 is in Goodyear in 2020, that’s a guy who could win a spot. Alex Powers has flat out dominated at the Double-A and Triple-A levels the last two years. His stuff doesn’t stand out, but he’s done nothing but get results at the highest levels of the minor leagues. He’s thrown 91.2 innings and posted a 1.96 ERA to go with 29 walks and 121 strikeouts. Powers has no big league experience, unlike everyone else on the list except his 2018 and 2019 teammate Vladimir Gutierrez. That may or may not work against him. Brooks Raley has been pitching, and having success at that, in Korea for the last half-decade. That success has come as a starter. If he’s going to find a job on the Reds roster this year, though, at least at the beginning of the season, it seems it’s going to have to come as a reliever. As a starter he was working in the 87-91 MPH range last season with a good 12-6 curve in the mid-to-upper 70’s. It could be interesting to see if that velocity picks up in the bullpen. There’s also a chance that he could be more of a “depth” option in Triple-A as rotation insurance. Ultimately, there are some guys in the non-roster pool that have something to keep an eye on. But it’s going to be tough for them to break through given just where the Cincinnati Reds are at. They’ve got depth and plenty of it. Toss in that some of those guys on the depth chart are out of options and have big time arms and things are really working against this group to head to Cincinnati in late March. Share this:FacebookTwitterRedditPocket 29 Responses AJinPA February 3, 2020 Along with the hiring of Kyle Boddy the organization has stated that there will be a strong emphasis on command this year over “stuff”. This should give an indication on who has a leg up in the competition. Apart from stellar spring performances, I believe health and command will decide the last 3 spots over options. That doesn’t bode well for Cody Reed, Sal Romano, and Lucas Sims. Of the 3 I give Sims an advantage over the other 2 simply because he has good command of his breaking ball. Reed and Romano don’t show consistent command of any of their pitches and I doubt that will change this spring. I’m not making any specific predictions but the odds are good that 1 or 2 non roster guys will make the opening day roster. Stock February 3, 2020 Totally disagree with your assessment of Cody Reed. Last 2 years his first 9 batters faced in a game (used because as a RP he won’t have to worry about going through the lineup a second time) his BB/9 is less than 2. The last two years in the minors his BB/9 was less than 3. AJinPA February 3, 2020 You can look at Cody Reed’s stat sheet all you want but it doesn’t tell the whole story. His command within the strike zone is very poor and that shows up more when you watch him pitch. Also, as a relief pitcher in the bigs, he hasn’t pitched in many if any high leverage situations and is not especially effective getting lefties out. He’s a talented guy who throws with his left hand so that always helps his chances but no his command is not good. Stock February 3, 2020 When 2 out of every 3 balls in play are ground balls that makes up for a lot of strike zone inefficiencies. That said I would much rather use stats to determine the quality of one’s command vs. watching from the ballpark or on TV. The BB/9 for 175 innings pitched in 2018 and 2019 suggest he does not walk batter at an alarming rate. Everyone’s ERA in the minors soared last year and his was 2.61. He is doing something right. Throw in the majors and it is about 2.33. He has to be doing something right. Tom February 3, 2020 Are we not talking about control when we say ability to place pitches where they are meant to go? Command is making the pitch do what it is supposed to do. I’ve not seen Reed or Sims with that issue. Todd3351 February 3, 2020 A little off topic but the Kia Tigers baseball team of Korea just came into my gym. Pretty cool. Linkster February 3, 2020 They really need another LH RP. Reed may get the nod on that front. But, he has been injured and inconsistent. My money is on Sims, Bowman and DeLeon. jbonireland February 3, 2020 If Nate Jones is healthy, I look for him to get a spot. Probably DeLeon’s who I would expect to start at Louisville. Bowman should get a spot if he pitches well this spring and probably Sims although I would watch Jessie Biddle who has been good in the past. I just don’t get the man love for Cody Reed, he would probably pass through waivers if let go. Stock February 3, 2020 With that GB%, Cody Reed may very well be the best pitcher in the bullpen for the Reds this year. If he can maintain 10 K/9 and 2 BB/9 he will be a stud. Stock February 3, 2020 3 spots. Nate Jones – If he is healthy and throwing as hard as he has in the past he has a spot. Cody Reed – He has a spot locked in from my perspective. First time through the order the last 2 years in the majors (32.3 IP, about half a RP total season). ERA: 1.39 WHIP: 1.02 K/9: 10.3 BB/9: 1.95 GB% last year (majors and minors combined was 71.4% in 27 innings. You can argue sample size here but it was 61.4% for the Reds in 2018 in 43 IP. He is a lock I think. Tyler Mahle, Jose DeLeon – I think the acquisition of Strop ensures the Reds want both of them starting in AAA to potentially replace DeSclafani and Bauer in 2021. Sims – 3.42 ERA as a RP last year in Cincinnati with a 1.22 WHIP and 17.77 K/9. Be it with 5.13 BB/9. He is out of options so I think he sticks even though he is not one of the three best options the Reds have. Romano – Out of options but struggled in the Bullpen in Louisville and again with the Reds. His days with the Reds will end in March unless no one else wants him. Louisville or another team. Shafer – Very under rated in my book. But he has options so he will probably be in Louisville. xwOPS last year was .717. That means batters are only slightly better than Billy Hamilton when the face him. He deserves a spot but Jones will be injured soon enough. Bowman – He is a former Cardinal so Bob likes him. He has an option and is not one of the top 8 RP on this team. Unless injuries happen he heads to Louisville to open 2020. Others – Long shots and need a lot of injuries. Tom February 3, 2020 Great summary! Stock February 3, 2020 Thanks Tom. Jefferson Green February 3, 2020 Yes, good summary. And this is baseball, so injuries will occur on the staff – sometimes to likely candidates (Jones), but sometimes to less or even unlikely candidates, so a number of guys who start in Louisville will pitch in Cincinnati at some point. There is more depth to this roster than we have seen in many years. Stock February 3, 2020 Thanks Jefferson Oldtimer February 3, 2020 https://www.mlb.com/reds/news/reds-updated-2020-opening-day-roster-predictions Mark Sheldon doesn’t even mention Cody Reed. He is a possibility but hardly a lock. PS this is a week old article. BK February 3, 2020 Sheldon likely made a mistake omitting Reed. He’ll have every opportunity to make the team. He has the ability, results and meets a need. Only a persistent nagging injury kept him off the squad last year. I anticipate he’ll be the rising star on the staff this year. Stock February 3, 2020 Agree with BK Oldtimer February 4, 2020 Maybe so. LHP don’t grow on trees. If healthy, he may be a Reds P in 2020. Mark Sheldon is pretty much spot on usually. BK February 3, 2020 Stock, I think you nailed it. Nice post. Stock February 3, 2020 Thanks BK SultanofSwaff February 3, 2020 Elephant in the room—the 3 batter minimum. Pitchers who don’t walk batters and are stretched out will have a leg up for the last remaining spots. To that end I like Sims and Reed, plus whomever shines best in ST. MK February 3, 2020 Jones. Reed will be #2 lefty in pen. Smith should be #3 if they keep three. Sandheel February 3, 2020 I like Reed, Jones and Sims.i AirborneJayJay February 3, 2020 Josh Smith and Jesse Biddle don’t instill any confidence in the left side of the bullpen after Amir Garrett and Cody Reed. Any chance the Reds look at the 2 lefty relievers the Marlins had to DFA today?? Marlin Garcia looks like one to at least check into. I remember him from the Marlins last year. Not bad. AirborneJayJay February 3, 2020 Jarlin Garcia, not Marlin. Darn auto correct. BK February 3, 2020 Garcia looks particularly intriguing with a very solid 2019 FIP. He doesn’t K many batters, but he doesn’t get hit hard either. Very surprised to see him available. Oldtimer February 3, 2020 Most likely non-roster pitcher to make the Reds this spring = Nate Jones. Stock February 3, 2020 Good job Oldtimer. You are the only one to directly answer the question. Rwhj February 4, 2020 Rooting for Cody. Doubt he makes the cut with all the stiff competition. Bet he goes onto another team and wins a World Series like Tanner Rainey and Dylan Floro.